Conclusions of CoinDesk's First Quater 2020 Report

[nongrada77]

CoinDesk’s first quarter 2020 report has been released. The time since the beginning of the year was not easy, the more interesting are the conclusions and forecasts made by analysts of one of the largest crypto resources.

Briefly, the conclusions about the state of the crypto market in the first quarter of 2020:

⁃ Global disruption caused by the spread of COVID-19 caused a downturn across all asset classes, including a 30+% pullback in stock markets. Bitcoin was also in a knockdown, plummeting 40% on March 12.

⁃ On March 12, ETH survived its biggest daily drop in history — nearly -45%.

⁃ The sudden drop in prices triggered snowballing liquidations.

⁃ All major crypto assets have experienced significant pullback (XTZ ~ 48%, BCH ~ 45%, XRP ~32%, LTC ~37%).

⁃ BTC futures is not the biggest market, but the activity on it has not decreased. The volume in these markets rose sharply on March 12 and returned to the base level, equal to or above previous levels.

⁃ The number of BTC whales (who have more than 1000BTC in their wallets) did not decrease on March 12, which indicates that the sell-off probably was not concentrated among the largest holders of long positions of the bitcoin.

⁃ Correlation with S&P500. Those who believed in bitcoin as an “uncorrected asset” were probably disappointed with how quickly the situation changed in March 2020. Bitcoin may return to an uncorrelated state, but its positioning as an uncorrelated component of the portfolio has been questioned.

⁃ Bitcoin transaction fees remained low during the market turmoil in the first quarter. Low transaction fees reinforce its potential use as a payment and transfer system, especially for sending large amounts.

⁃ CoinDesk expects that the amount fixed in DeFi and the ETH price will rise in tandem. In the short term, restoring to previous levels will mean restoring confidence in DeFi systems.

⁃ Halving will take place in less than two months when the reward for bitcoin block generation will be halved — from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. After two previous halvings, the price of bitcoin increased and compensated for the loss of bonuses for miners. The March drop in prices so far puts the upcoming halving on uncharted territory.

⁃ New functionality for crypto networks will have a direct impact on adoption among users. First of all, it is the implementation of PoS for ETH, as well as Schnorr signatures and Taproot for BTC.

The full article is here: https://medium.com/@baloyan/coindesk-first-quater-2020-report-457073e302bb

What are your thoughts?

[pooya87]

the conclusions and forecasts made by analysts of one of the largest crypto resources.

99% of those who you think are "analysts" are newbies who have very little understanding of this market!

⁃ On March 12, ETH survived its biggest daily drop in history — nearly -45%.

that was nowhere near the biggest dump of ethereum. during mid 2017 alone it had lots of 50% dumps not to mention that 64% crash of 2018 in February. by the way this -45% dump was not a daily drop it took more than a day.

⁃ The sudden drop in prices triggered snowballing liquidations.
⁃ All major crypto assets have experienced significant pullback (XTZ ~ 48%, BCH ~ 45%, XRP ~32%, LTC ~37%).

that's just altcoins getting dumped faster and bigger than bitcoin, it is normal. it is exactly liquidation it is panic sell.

⁃ The number of BTC whales (who have more than 1000BTC in their wallets) did not decrease on March 12, which indicates that the sell-off probably was not concentrated among the largest holders of long positions of the bitcoin.

that is completely wrong because we have no way of counting the number of whales in bitcoin. addresses that have a certain amount of bitcoin do NOT represent whales.

⁃ Correlation with S&P500. Those who believed in bitcoin as an “uncorrected asset” were probably disappointed with how quickly the situation changed in March 2020. Bitcoin may return to an uncorrelated state, but its positioning as an uncorrelated component of the portfolio has been questioned.

anybody who has looked at bitcoin charts ever has been surprised about how well bitcoin performed during this time. a 30% to 40% crash in stock market or any other big market for that matter is a big disaster but in bitcoin the same percentage drop is just another normal moderate drop.

⁃ Bitcoin transaction fees remained low during the market turmoil in the first quarter. Low transaction fees reinforce its potential use as a payment and transfer system, especially for sending large amounts.

wrong. fees increased up to 40 times during the 3 days that price was going down from the minimum of 1 satoshi/byte to up to 40. and they stayed up most of the same week and the next but not as high.

⁃ Halving will take place in less than two months when the reward for bitcoin block generation will be halved

there is less than 27 days remaining to halving!

⁃ New functionality for crypto networks will have a direct impact on adoption among users. First of all, it is the implementation of PoS for ETH,

switching from PoW to PoS is not a new functionality. it is a desperate way to save a centralized network and create some short term hype to pump the coin. and in the longer term it is to make free money for no work for those who have millions of Ether stored for free such as ethereum foundation and Vitalik who own the premined coins.

[kecha1]

The conclusions are depressing, and this seems only the beginning.

[coolcoinz]

⁃ The number of BTC whales (who have more than 1000BTC in their wallets) did not decrease on March 12, which indicates that the sell-off probably was not concentrated among the largest holders of long positions of the bitcoin.

that is completely wrong because we have no way of counting the number of whales in bitcoin. addresses that have a certain amount of bitcoin do NOT represent whales.

If the number of 100+ wallets remained the same, it would suggest that if the coins were being exchanged it was not done on the markets but rather through OTC trading.
This means that big whales were not adding fuel to the fire during this crash.
It's a well known fact that the market price does not represent the real value of Bitcoin, simply because only a few percent of the supply is being traded. In other words, most Bitcoin owners do not trade and a lot of it is wash trading where the same people buy and sell the same coins over and over. I'm not a big holder, but the coins I got in 15 are still on my wallet and have not been traded at all. The majority of Bitoin owners do not actively trade.

[nongrada77]

the conclusions and forecasts made by analysts of one of the largest crypto resources.

99% of those who you think are "analysts" are newbies who have very little understanding of this market!

⁃ On March 12, ETH survived its biggest daily drop in history — nearly -45%.

that was nowhere near the biggest dump of ethereum. during mid 2017 alone it had lots of 50% dumps not to mention that 64% crash of 2018 in February. by the way this -45% dump was not a daily drop it took more than a day.

⁃ The sudden drop in prices triggered snowballing liquidations.
⁃ All major crypto assets have experienced significant pullback (XTZ ~ 48%, BCH ~ 45%, XRP ~32%, LTC ~37%).

that's just altcoins getting dumped faster and bigger than bitcoin, it is normal. it is exactly liquidation it is panic sell.

⁃ The number of BTC whales (who have more than 1000BTC in their wallets) did not decrease on March 12, which indicates that the sell-off probably was not concentrated among the largest holders of long positions of the bitcoin.

that is completely wrong because we have no way of counting the number of whales in bitcoin. addresses that have a certain amount of bitcoin do NOT represent whales.

⁃ Correlation with S&P500. Those who believed in bitcoin as an “uncorrected asset” were probably disappointed with how quickly the situation changed in March 2020. Bitcoin may return to an uncorrelated state, but its positioning as an uncorrelated component of the portfolio has been questioned.

anybody who has looked at bitcoin charts ever has been surprised about how well bitcoin performed during this time. a 30% to 40% crash in stock market or any other big market for that matter is a big disaster but in bitcoin the same percentage drop is just another normal moderate drop.

⁃ Bitcoin transaction fees remained low during the market turmoil in the first quarter. Low transaction fees reinforce its potential use as a payment and transfer system, especially for sending large amounts.

wrong. fees increased up to 40 times during the 3 days that price was going down from the minimum of 1 satoshi/byte to up to 40. and they stayed up most of the same week and the next but not as high.

⁃ Halving will take place in less than two months when the reward for bitcoin block generation will be halved

there is less than 27 days remaining to halving!

⁃ New functionality for crypto networks will have a direct impact on adoption among users. First of all, it is the implementation of PoS for ETH,

switching from PoW to PoS is not a new functionality. it is a desperate way to save a centralized network and create some short term hype to pump the coin. and in the longer term it is to make free money for no work for those who have millions of Ether stored for free such as ethereum foundation and Vitalik who own the premined coins.

Thanks for your comments. These are just take-aways from CD report, as CD is often considered as very reputable source. Your thoughts on this?

[nongrada77]

I think this conclusions are pretty obvious by now, but the good thing is that the crypto market has survived and will remain resilient. I don't know when the author wrote this article, but halving is less than a month from now. And we should move forward with the current flash crash. As one poster have said, it is depressing, but I guess everyone should look at the bright side, we have survived and I guess everyone is looking at the next big event - block halving.

What are your forecasts?

[nongrada77]

⁃ The number of BTC whales (who have more than 1000BTC in their wallets) did not decrease on March 12, which indicates that the sell-off probably was not concentrated among the largest holders of long positions of the bitcoin.

that is completely wrong because we have no way of counting the number of whales in bitcoin. addresses that have a certain amount of bitcoin do NOT represent whales.

If the number of 100+ wallets remained the same, it would suggest that if the coins were being exchanged it was not done on the markets but rather through OTC trading.
This means that big whales were not adding fuel to the fire during this crash.
It's a well known fact that the market price does not represent the real value of Bitcoin, simply because only a few percent of the supply is being traded. In other words, most Bitcoin owners do not trade and a lot of it is wash trading where the same people buy and sell the same coins over and over. I'm not a big holder, but the coins I got in 15 are still on my wallet and have not been traded at all. The majority of Bitoin owners do not actively trade.

What do you think, what price of BTC is fair currently?

[BrewMaster]

this was mostly report of some gloomy incidents in bitcoin and some of them weren't really that significant or even untrue. there were a lot more news about bitcoin in the first quarter of 2020. for example the French news about adopting bitcoin as a legal way of payment or the Indian government ordering banks to loosen their grip on their customers regarding bitcoin trading and some more positive news which were more significant than COVID, altcoins or some whale moving coins.

[Jawhead999]

If you want to reply all user don't make multiple post.  Just quote his post and answer it for one post only

You should follow this rules

32. Posting multiple posts in a row (excluding bumps and reserved posts by the thread starter) is not allowed.

[nongrada77]

this was mostly report of some gloomy incidents in bitcoin and some of them weren't really that significant or even untrue. there were a lot more news about bitcoin in the first quarter of 2020. for example the French news about adopting bitcoin as a legal way of payment or the Indian government ordering banks to loosen their grip on their customers regarding bitcoin trading and some more positive news which were more significant than COVID, altcoins or some whale moving coins.

I think that it wasn't included as it didn't affect the market much and maybe CD was trying to mention the most significant things that straight affected the price.

If you want to reply all user don't make multiple post.  Just quote his post and answer it for one post only

You should follow this rules

32. Posting multiple posts in a row (excluding bumps and reserved posts by the thread starter) is not allowed.

Oh, didn't know that! Thanks for advice!

[DooMAD]

Thanks for your comments. These are just take-aways from CD report, as CD is often considered as very reputable source. Your thoughts on this?

Compared to some of their competitors, CoinDesk aren't the most inept.  But that's not saying much.  Imagine people attempted to justify which reality tv show is the most informative.  It's a bit like that.  At the end of the day, it's pretty much all mindless drivel that you really shouldn't pay attention to. 

I still can't fathom how it happened, but writing crap and generating page impressions somehow turned into a business model.  Stop supporting it and hopefully it will die.

[Pronzegirl]

Really important report. I hope that the crisis of the krona virus will end soon so that the financial conditions stabilize and return to its previous situation, especially the stock market, which has fallen a lot due to the current poor conditions, which led to the impact of digital currency indicators and the decay of the global economy.

[dothebeats]

The round-up was mainly focused on the current situation of the market, which is within the last 5 weeks and not really the first 4 months of 2020. I believe that March and April isn't the only months in the first quarter, and there were also some events--albeit not that big--on Jan and  that helped shaped the market at the very least. We haven't even seen some reports regarding the surge in Jan - Feb that led us back to $10k..

Anyway, all in all the first quarter is quite depressing, not only for crypto but across all asset class there is. It is projected that by June - July most countries would have flatten the curve for the virus, and hopefully some sense of normalcy in the economy would be brought back too.

[hatshepsut93]

⁃ Halving will take place in less than two months when the reward for bitcoin block generation will be halved — from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. After two previous halvings, the price of bitcoin increased and compensated for the loss of bonuses for miners. The March drop in prices so far puts the upcoming halving on uncharted territory.

Look at the hashrate chart, when the price declined by ~50% the hashrate dropped by only 16%. It's clear that miners are making big profits with even the current price, so they will be able to afford to keep mining even after the halvening. Some will drop out, but it will be only a small minority. Halvening is a very predictable event, miners were preparing for it for years by upgrading their equipment, and those who didn't simply don't expect to mine after the halvening.

[pooya87]

⁃ Halving will take place in less than two months when the reward for bitcoin block generation will be halved — from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. After two previous halvings, the price of bitcoin increased and compensated for the loss of bonuses for miners. The March drop in prices so far puts the upcoming halving on uncharted territory.

Look at the hashrate chart, when the price declined by ~50% the hashrate dropped by only 16%. It's clear that miners are making big profits with even the current price, so they will be able to afford to keep mining even after the halvening. Some will drop out, but it will be only a small minority. Halvening is a very predictable event, miners were preparing for it for years by upgrading their equipment, and those who didn't simply don't expect to mine after the halvening.

that's true but it is mainly because hashrate changes are a lot more complicated than price changes. the miners are making decision based on the price but not immediately and not directly. most of them (specially the bigger ones) are already selling their coins off the market at a higher price due to just being "fresh coins" and they have contracts for these deals that may not change with every sudden price change that takes place.

[Sircoss]

A good, plausible report. But still I wonder what awaits us next.

[kryptqnick]

CoinDesk’s first quarter 2020 report has been released. The time since the beginning of the year was not easy, the more interesting are the conclusions and forecasts made by analysts of one of the largest crypto resources.

Briefly, the conclusions about the state of the crypto market in the first quarter of 2020:

⁃ The number of BTC whales (who have more than 1000BTC in their wallets) did not decrease on March 12, which indicates that the sell-off probably was not concentrated among the largest holders of long positions of the bitcoin.

⁃ Correlation with S&P500. Those who believed in bitcoin as an “uncorrected asset” were probably disappointed with how quickly the situation changed in March 2020. Bitcoin may return to an uncorrelated state, but its positioning as an uncorrelated component of the portfolio has been questioned.

⁃ Bitcoin transaction fees remained low during the market turmoil in the first quarter. Low transaction fees reinforce its potential use as a payment and transfer system, especially for sending large amounts.

⁃ CoinDesk expects that the amount fixed in DeFi and the ETH price will rise in tandem. In the short term, restoring to previous levels will mean restoring confidence in DeFi systems.

⁃ Halving will take place in less than two months when the reward for bitcoin block generation will be halved — from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. After two previous halvings, the price of bitcoin increased and compensated for the loss of bonuses for miners. The March drop in prices so far puts the upcoming halving on uncharted territory.

⁃ New functionality for crypto networks will have a direct impact on adoption among users. First of all, it is the implementation of PoS for ETH, as well as Schnorr signatures and Taproot for BTC.

The full article is here: https://medium.com/@baloyan/coindesk-first-quater-2020-report-457073e302bb

What are your thoughts?

I guess the first half was more of common knowledge and something easy to look up, so I don't see anything worth discussion there. The second half is more interesting. For one, I am happy that they've mentioned that the drop probably wasn't caused by 'the whales' because I am tired of those 'whale manipulations' talks. As for correlation with stock, it's clearly out of the picture. Bitcoin dropped along with the stock, sure, but then it has shown some significant recovery.  Then speaking of halving, it's a matter of interpretation whether halving was previously followed by the price increase (honestly, I don't see it this way, and Antonopoulos doesn't either).