26 days to the halving left, what are you expecting?

[Qcrypto]

Let's talk about the facts we know.

Bitcoin miners are currently receiving 12.5 Bitcoins per successful block produced. Which would translate to roughly $87 000 if they were to instantly sell the Bitcoins at the current price ($7000) at the time of this post (April 20, 2020).

Let also take into consideration the costs of mining. One article states that miners roughly spend $4500 in costs per 1 BTC mined. So their total cost of producing a new block would come to $56 250 with the
total earnings of $87 000. The end result is $30 750 profits.

Current reward: 12.5 Bitcoins
Total earnings: $87 000
Total cost: $56 250
Profit: $30 750

Now fast forward to halving. The cost of producing a new block is still the same, but the reward is cut down in half to 6.25 Bitcoins. Let's calculate.

New reward: 6.25 Bitcoins
Total earnings: $43 500
Total cost: $56 250
Profit: $-12 750



It is quite clear that Miners will have absolutely no intention in selling BTC at the current price of $7000 as they will go into a loss.
They have to start selling the BTC at a higher price otherwise it does not make sense for them to mine in the first place.


PS. even if the costs of producing a block are lower than I mentioned, miners would still report a profit loss due to reward halving. To compensate for the reward halving, they have to start selling at higher price.

[conhela]

Looking for a Bullish market to appear during the Halving is totally out from reality. I know it wasn't sure about that but if we tale a look closely to the market movement, we can tell that there is no such play at all. I'm wondering where whales have to go this time, I miss them actually. Many people had hated them but they seem helping the market to move high just like what they did last 2017 Bullrun. Their market participation has a huge market effect and it was making the recovery slower than we ever think.

Just because recently trend hasn't been all happy and dandy doesn't mean halvening will randomly not have the impact it has repeatedly had in the past. It may not inmediately go up, but in about a year's time we're sure to see at least a whiff of a decent bull run once again, and that's just following past trends, sure we didn't have covid back then, but we have it now and bitcoin has sorta held its ground, and the few months before the halvening are ALWAYS flakey times.

[Eplus_Team]

Let's talk about the facts we know.

Bitcoin miners are currently receiving 12.5 Bitcoins per successful block produced. Which would translate to roughly $87 000 if they were to instantly sell the Bitcoins at the current price ($7000) at the time of this post (April 20, 2020).

Let also take into consideration the costs of mining. One article states that miners roughly spend $4500 in costs per 1 BTC mined. So their total cost of producing a news block would come to $56 250 with the
total earnings of $87 000. The end result is $30 750 profits.

Current reward: 12.5 Bitcoins
Total earnings: $87 000
Total cost: $56 250
Profit: $30 750

Now fast forward to halving. The cost of producing a new block is still the same, but the reward is cut down in half to 6.25 Bitcoins. Let's calculate.

New reward: 6.25 Bitcoins
Total earnings: $43 500
Total cost: $56 250
Profit: $-12 750



It is quite clear that Miners will have absolutely no intention in selling BTC at the current price of $7000 as they will go into a loss.
They have to start selling the BTC at a higher price otherwise it does not make sense for them to mine in the first place.


PS. even if the costs of producing a block are lower than I mentioned, miners would still report a profit loss due to reward halving. To compensate for the reward halving, they have to start selling at higher price.

How was the mining cost of 4500$ per BTC calculated?

[Gheka]

I hope that bitcoin can pump when halving occurs, although now many people doubt that bitcoin will pump when halving occurs.
Because seeing the market now has not changed much, bitcoin prices are still stable. There is no sign yet that bitcoin prices will
pump.Though halving will happen a few weeks from now. But I'm still optimistic that bitcoin will pump, at least to the price of $10k.

Well, I also hope that bitcoin will have more pumps to generate more profits for users but the real story is that as you said, the signal appears to be not too much, a certain force has prevented signs of bitcoin, forcing bitcoin to move sideways while the event is very near, a situation where investors need to be cautious in their decisions. Sensing that risk, my hope has never been accompanied by such a big bet, it is always within the allowed range, instead of all in one as many people are doing, it's too dangerous when we can lose everything

[ultrloa]

I hope that bitcoin can pump when halving occurs, although now many people doubt that bitcoin will pump when halving occurs.
Because seeing the market now has not changed much, bitcoin prices are still stable. There is no sign yet that bitcoin prices will
pump.Though halving will happen a few weeks from now. But I'm still optimistic that bitcoin will pump, at least to the price of $10k.

Well, I also hope that bitcoin will have more pumps to generate more profits for users but the real story is that as you said, the signal appears to be not too much, a certain force has prevented signs of bitcoin, forcing bitcoin to move sideways while the event is very near, a situation where investors need to be cautious in their decisions. Sensing that risk, my hope has never been accompanied by such a big bet, it is always within the allowed range, instead of all in one as many people are doing, it's too dangerous when we can lose everything

I hope that also but I don't expect more pumps since the pandemic still on which contributes the major recession happening right now and we still don't know this will end next month since if the disease will still occur and the experts will not find a cure provably we will not see some good figures coming with bitcoins.

[Qcrypto]

Let's talk about the facts we know.

Bitcoin miners are currently receiving 12.5 Bitcoins per successful block produced. Which would translate to roughly $87 000 if they were to instantly sell the Bitcoins at the current price ($7000) at the time of this post (April 20, 2020).

Let also take into consideration the costs of mining. One article states that miners roughly spend $4500 in costs per 1 BTC mined. So their total cost of producing a news block would come to $56 250 with the
total earnings of $87 000. The end result is $30 750 profits.

Current reward: 12.5 Bitcoins
Total earnings: $87 000
Total cost: $56 250
Profit: $30 750

Now fast forward to halving. The cost of producing a new block is still the same, but the reward is cut down in half to 6.25 Bitcoins. Let's calculate.

New reward: 6.25 Bitcoins
Total earnings: $43 500
Total cost: $56 250
Profit: $-12 750



It is quite clear that Miners will have absolutely no intention in selling BTC at the current price of $7000 as they will go into a loss.
They have to start selling the BTC at a higher price otherwise it does not make sense for them to mine in the first place.


PS. even if the costs of producing a block are lower than I mentioned, miners would still report a profit loss due to reward halving. To compensate for the reward halving, they have to start selling at higher price.

How was the mining cost of 4500$ per BTC calculated?

I read it in an article, but that's beside the point.
Even if the costs are $0 and electricity is free, during halving your profits are still cut in half. That was my point.

[target]

Like @Qcrypto said, history says it all that halving causes the price to go way up.

It wouldn't make sense if you are looking forward to the crashing of price after halving. If you are a BTC investor, you'd be looking to see the price to go way up, maybe double til the ATH again. The lesser the supply means miners will consider selling their coins for the higher prices.

[Vishnu.Reang]

We need to remember that in both the previous occasions (2012 and 2016), there was no major spikes immediately following the block reward halving. The prices began appreciating some 7-8 months after the event and reached ATH almost 1.5 years later. I am not saying that the same will repeat this time, but just remembering everyone that in the past this is what happened.

[perfect999]

I think we all know that the halving will come in 26 days  Im just wondering what are you thinking what impacts will the halving have?

Will nothing happen?
Will the price pump or dump?
Will the hashrate drop dramatically and delay block times?

The way I’m seeing it, maybe nothing will happen immediately after the halving. The price might still continue to be stable or maybe go up a bit, but it’s likely going to take more than this year before the price will go for a bull run. I don’t know if you have taken your time to go through what happened after the last Halving in 2016. Don’t forget that the last bull run we had was in 2017, that means the bull run didn’t start immediately the halving took place, it took sometime before it all happened.

I don’t know if the same thing is going to be happening or maybe not. A lot of people have predicted that 2020 is going to be the year for bull run, so I don’t know about this for sure, whether now is going to be different. What you least expect that happens.

[pixie85]

I read it in an article, but that's beside the point.
Even if the costs are $0 and electricity is free, during halving your profits are still cut in half. That was my point.

I think it's a rough eastimation not a real cost. Maybe they calculated it based on the cheapest power some Chinese miners have 

I've read many other estimates that gave a much higher cost of mining and came to a conclusion that everythiung below 5000 dollars would already put most miners out of business.

Profitable mining is depending on the cost of power somewhere between 5000 and 6000 dolllars. I guess at this moment with price at 4000 there's not a miner in the world that wouldn't be mining at a loss.

[Murat]

It's very difficult to predict about halving because the world is getting stack day by day but there is no positive signal about any positive steps against Coronavirus so people are becoming workless and they will start very soon to withdraw their saving money for their daily life so it's very certain that We are getting another recession in the coming days so at this moment It can't be said that Bitcoin price will rise again in the Halving, but from the previous experience says that When people can't work at outside home then they should e depended online platform and there is a little chance to make this crypto world again greater, either this system will get developed or it will face a terrible threat because no one assume what will happen in the coming days.

[NavI_027]

I already stop expecting of what could happen next because it stresses me out lol. I'm getting a liitle bit more frustrated with the current pandemic so there's no room for me to think aboit it. If the result of halving is bad then so be it them if it was good then much better. Less expectations, less hurt . But one thing is for sure, I remain holding and I guess my next move will depend on how things go .

[South Park]

I have always thought that the price would go way up during a halving but history has proved not so. It does make more sense to go up and since bitcoin has been around quite some time I think this halving will effect the price more than the previous ones. If the price does drop though I think it would be the best time to buy more bitcoin. I see most are with me on this.

During the halving meaning what? 1 day before and 1 day after?

It went up after each halving but needed a few weeks before it became clearly visible. It happened faster after the first halving and slower after the second. If we follow the same path it may even take a year before we see a new ATH but it will happen.

As time passes and the price of bitcoin increases it makes sense that we will see more time between the bull markets, however the corona virus has added a variable that was not present before, the world economy is in complete chaos and everyone is trying to figure out a way to make the economy work under the current conditions, and while bitcoin should do well over the long term it is doubtful we are going to see a bull market during this year when most economies of the world will contract and many jobs will be lost.

[AmoreJaz]

We need to remember that in both the previous occasions (2012 and 2016), there was no major spikes immediately following the block reward halving. The prices began appreciating some 7-8 months after the event and reached ATH almost 1.5 years later. I am not saying that the same will repeat this time, but just remembering everyone that in the past this is what happened.

the increase might not be the day after halving happens, but im more than positive that it will increase some time but dont expect it to skyrocket. we are in a global crisis here and people are busy attending their own needs. but still exciting to know what will happen after this halving, after all it only happens every 4 years.

[giammangiato]

Hello, given the recent halving (bitcoin cash) hoping that in the long run it is possible to touch higher prices, obviously it is my personal assumption that the BTC slowly becomes more and more difficult and less profitable for the miners makes me think that the price could go up. We will know soon.

Regards

[TitanGEL]

We need to remember that in both the previous occasions (2012 and 2016), there was no major spikes immediately following the block reward halving. The prices began appreciating some 7-8 months after the event and reached ATH almost 1.5 years later. I am not saying that the same will repeat this time, but just remembering everyone that in the past this is what happened.

the increase might not be the day after halving happens, but im more than positive that it will increase some time but dont expect it to skyrocket. we are in a global crisis here and people are busy attending their own needs. but still exciting to know what will happen after this halving, after all it only happens every 4 years.

That is right we should not get easily hype, there are people who think that the price will skyrocket after halving but for me it is impossible. In the recent halving, the prices rises but tit takes weeks and even months. Today is different because there is still crisis out there so I think the price will not skyrocket even the halving became successful. The halving is near and we should create different contingency plan for us to become prepared to handle different scenarios.

[3meek]

I think we all know that the halving will come in 26 days  Im just wondering what are you thinking what impacts will the halving have?

Will nothing happen?
Will the price pump or dump?
Will the hashrate drop dramatically and delay block times?

I think that halving will not immediately affect the price of Bitcoin, because the market will remain the same offer of coins. But over time, the price should rise, because the mining will become more expensive...
Although on halving day there can be manipulation and volatility on the exchanges.

But the hashrate can really fall, because the small miners will start to be disconnected from the network.

[Anonylz]

i read a piece somewhere were analyst are expecting the price of btc during this halving to go as high as $20k, speculative and a possibility because of the crash in oil, probably some people might want to make a different choice of investment, but with this current situation, will people rush in to invest or they will want to wait for the pandemic crisis to be over and there is normalcy in the economy!
anyways, am just looking forward to halving, hoping for the best and expecting a no rise in price situation.

[so98nn]

i read a piece somewhere were analyst are expecting the price of btc during this halving to go as high as $20k, speculative and a possibility because of the crash in oil, probably some people might want to make a different choice of investment, but with this current situation, will people rush in to invest or they will want to wait for the pandemic crisis to be over and there is normalcy in the economy!
anyways, am just looking forward to halving, hoping for the best and expecting a no rise in price situation.

I guess we could have bet on the buying of more bitcoins Or loads of investment in the cyrpto world if current pandemic wouldnt have been there.

I have gradually started thinking there wont be much difference this halving. I have myself posted earlier that the prices could go sky-rocket but now since the situation is worsening more, the balance just tipped over i believe.

It will stake nearly 9K-10K max if situation kept worsening then lets be ready for big drop.

[Anonylz]

i read a piece somewhere were analyst are expecting the price of btc during this halving to go as high as $20k, speculative and a possibility because of the crash in oil, probably some people might want to make a different choice of investment, but with this current situation, will people rush in to invest or they will want to wait for the pandemic crisis to be over and there is normalcy in the economy!
anyways, am just looking forward to halving, hoping for the best and expecting a no rise in price situation.

I guess we could have bet on the buying of more bitcoins Or loads of investment in the cyrpto world if current pandemic wouldnt have been there.

I have gradually started thinking there wont be much difference this halving. I have myself posted earlier that the prices could go sky-rocket but now since the situation is worsening more, the balance just tipped over i believe.

It will stake nearly 9K-10K max if situation kept worsening then lets be ready for big drop.

Yeah the situation would have been much better supposing there were no pandemic to hinder growth in price, unfortunately that's not the case,
although i heard vaccines are available and schedule for testing in the UK and other affected countries,
i think soon the curve will be flatten, people will be out of danger, and things will gradually shape back into normal, economy will slowly recover,
all this will happen after the halving most probably, so maybe price will spike towards end of year, this are just probability, not real facts.