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Author Topic: China’s economy is contracting and this is not good for the global economy.  (Read 483 times)
fiulpro
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April 18, 2020, 06:57:47 AM
 #21

See this is what people need to hear , unfortunately because of the virus being originated in China , it has created a lot of offense for the Chinese government , people are saying they are being benefitted or they have the vaccine and they are not giving it away , unfortunately economy of every single country is being infected.
With the Corona virus killing so much people and creating it harder for anything to work out , economy of even China is being affected and we all know how much China exports , everything that is Cheap or costly one way or the other , even the spare parts they come from the Chinese markets , so if they get into a bad situation then China will have to increase prices and inflation will cause other countries to be affected too .

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Latviand
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April 18, 2020, 08:50:39 AM
 #22

I still beleive that chinese economy will recover soon. Like many other economies in the world they are suffering at the moment and have the bigest GDP fall since 1992 but I think that unlike many economies in the european countries in the world they will be back to feet very soon and US and Europe will need much longer period of time so Chinese will have advantage once more.

I don't actually think this is the case.

We've seen china drop by about 26% and then rally back, we've seen Europe do the same and while I'm in no doubt Europe can fall further (potentially 25% - as estimated) the US may stand to lose a lot more... Grouping the two together disregards the semi-stable wealth production in Europe and the bubbled assets in the US.


We all know that China is really good at manipulating and maintaining the state of their economy, they are the most manufacturer of goods around the world and we can't deny that most of our products came from them. We can't deny that some of the countries rely on the economy of China that's why there are people who believe that China will dominate the economy after this Covid-19. I don't really know if this is a strategy of China because American and European country are suffering from the virus that originated from Wuhan, China and the economy of these two are really crashing. Like what I've said, this is the reality that China is a huge country and stable enough in terms of their economy.
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April 18, 2020, 09:43:06 AM
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 #23

China's Q1 numbers are heavily due to the shutdowns themselves. The service sector was actually the hardest hit. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-business/virus-had-eye-popping-impact-on-chinas-economy-beige-book-idUSKBN21A3R9

Good point. Honestly I wonder how well the service sector worldwide is going to recover from this. I'm afraid we'll see a lot of consolidation once this whole mess is over, with big companies strengthening their grip on the market as small business owners run out of reserves.


Lots of people around here still seem to believe the Chinese government narrative about a miraculous V-shaped recovery in Q2. I'm very skeptical. In fact, I would say markets across the world are way too overconfident in a swift economic recovery. That goes for the US and Europe too.

Definitely. While we're luckily not in an end-of-the-world scenario the unavoidable long-term impact doesn't seem to be priced in yet. Especially since a market bust has been long overdue for now, even without a pandemic going on.
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April 18, 2020, 09:58:06 AM
 #24

How on earth could the Chinese economy remain strong despite this virus? You have to remember that this virus originated from China itself. It is where the first epicenter was. China was the first country where the virus killed a lot of people, caused lockdowns, closed shops, cancelled shipments of goods, and so on and so forth. If all these things wouldn't cripple China's economy, they must be gods. There is nothing stunning in the fact that China's economy is contracting in the face of this crisis.

Let's not even mention the duration. Just a single month of shops closing down could bring about massive changes to the Chinese economy. There's also the expenses that the government has spent towards helping those involved in the quarantine/lockdown to survive. There's also another issue, China was pretty much the cause of the massive damages literally every country in the world has experienced. Just look at how much damage it has caused to US, Italy, etc. And China has no excuse here. China has suffered damages yes, but other countries have suffered more compared to China, and it isn't even their fault. Especially now with how countries are seeing the lifting of lockdowns in China. There'd probably be no change sin the next few weeks cause the other countries are trying to contain the damages, but after that, they'd probably want an answer from China.

We all know that Chinese people are business-minded and they value money above all, because of that mindset, China really have a well-growth economy. This virus doesn't affect their economy that much because they are the no.1 supplier of products around the world and they are a large manpower because of they have the largest population around the world. The virus killed a lot of people from all around the world and it is really uncontrollable as its cases are still increasing, yet, the cases in China become stable and slowly increasing, I think that they already have the vaccine or cure but they don't tell other country because we want US to suffer more from this pandemic, We don't know, we have no evidence about that but it is so suspicious.

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April 18, 2020, 01:14:58 PM
 #25

We are living in an unprecedented time. As China was the first to suffer from the virus pandemic, it is logical to think that it is the first economy that it should recover. In addition to being an industrial power, work in big business has not yet returned to normality.

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April 18, 2020, 02:14:38 PM
 #26

The situation of global economy is not getting better with this happenings of corona. I hope that America recovers fast too as China has done so that we can start having some economic growth and the crypto turning to green again. The economy is going through crash and the business of cryptocurrency is crashing too.

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April 18, 2020, 02:19:36 PM
 #27

Quote

CHINA'S ECONOMY contracted 6.8% during the first three months of the year from the year prior – representing the country's first and largest reported economic decline since it began formally reporting data in the 1990s.


I have till date believed that the Chinese economy was going to remain strong despite the virus crisis, but I’m stunned to see that their economy is contracting, and I believe this will impact each and every country’s economy who trade a lot with them. Furthermore what do you’ll think that China should do at this stage to arrest this fall, and most importantly do you’ll believe that they’ll be able to repair their economy?.

Source:

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-04-17/chinese-economy-contracts-68-as-coronavirus-cases-revised-higher

The reason for the shrink in China economy is due to the shrink in its international or export trade. You know China is a manufacturing economy and many countries rely on China for one raw material or other.

So, China loosing these business due to covid-19 containment measures which closes exportation and importation is the cause of the decline of China economy.

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April 18, 2020, 07:53:09 PM
 #28

... Furthermore what do you’ll think that China should do at this stage to arrest this fall, and most importantly do you’ll believe that they’ll be able to repair their economy?...

I believe that you needlessly worry about the Chinese economy) The country has almost won the coronavirus pandemic. And its industry will soon be operating at full capacity. And given that other countries still have a long way to go before the end of the pandemic, China will now become the main supplier of industrial goods to all countries of the world.

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April 19, 2020, 03:07:14 AM
 #29

...I think that they already have the vaccine or cure but they don't tell other country because we want US to suffer more from this pandemic, We don't know, we have no evidence about that but it is so suspicious.

Of course, you have not an iota of evidence to support your suspicion. After all, that is a suspicion that is far-fetched as it is absurd. It defies logic. You said that the Chinese are business-minded people. If that is so, and supposing they have the vaccine or the cure, they should not just be selling masks this time. That cure should sell much more easily and more expensive than those cheap masks and gloves. Also, selfishly keeping the cure within them is still a suicide to their economy. Their market is the world. And, most of all, China is still recording new infections until now. Whether they are imported or locally transmitted is not the point; the point is that for as long as the virus is present in other countries, they, too, are vulnerable.
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April 20, 2020, 01:48:34 PM
 #30

^ Definitely country of China is the ground zero of COVID-19 that their economy was affected as well. Though their economy has dropped down a bit they were able to surpass the pandemic while other countries are still in crisis. Since China was able to overcome then they are the first ones who can bounce back on their economy. While other countries are still suffering from this crisis they are already of help, in fact, many supplies that are necessary from this pandemic are coming from China. Nevertheless, I dunno, if they are mind, is in the business despite the calamity happened. AFAIK.
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April 20, 2020, 03:32:05 PM
 #31

... Furthermore what do you’ll think that China should do at this stage to arrest this fall, and most importantly do you’ll believe that they’ll be able to repair their economy?...

I believe that you needlessly worry about the Chinese economy) The country has almost won the coronavirus pandemic. And its industry will soon be operating at full capacity. And given that other countries still have a long way to go before the end of the pandemic, China will now become the main supplier of industrial goods to all countries of the world.
Have you not wondering why China easily handled the virus? I mean the suspicion is quite strong with a pretty basic logic of thinking and we already have many of threads talking about theories with the pandemic. We've known China for a long time, their economic progress is really noticeable as the world goes on that even USA is a bit shaken with the China's industrialization taking a hard bang on the spot. It's good to know that China recovering, I hope they'll find the cure for the pandemic as quickly as possible.
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April 20, 2020, 03:56:22 PM
 #32

Quote

CHINA'S ECONOMY contracted 6.8% during the first three months of the year from the year prior – representing the country's first and largest reported economic decline since it began formally reporting data in the 1990s.


I have till date believed that the Chinese economy was going to remain strong despite the virus crisis, but I’m stunned to see that their economy is contracting, and I believe this will impact each and every country’s economy who trade a lot with them. Furthermore what do you’ll think that China should do at this stage to arrest this fall, and most importantly do you’ll believe that they’ll be able to repair their economy?.

Source:

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-04-17/chinese-economy-contracts-68-as-coronavirus-cases-revised-higher

They should not be doing anything at this point. All they should do is, give some air to breath to rest of the world. China being biggest and cheapest market for the manufacturing industry, i believe its time to flip the cards now. Most of the country are now on the verge to put up their own industralisation as big as China owns today.

Dependancy on chinese market has led us to no where and its also very fearful if china is bioengineering viruses like corona in todays date. I know, I know no proof for that last claim but its china, they can do anything to "arrest" their own economy. May be thats your answer.
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April 20, 2020, 04:02:04 PM
 #33

This Should not be strange, you know what they have gone through and you know how much damage could have happened in the few moment of the lockdown and disaster. I'm sure they would recover, because China is smart about that. They actually had much loss. If China could be so affected with their level of technological advancement, how much more many underdeveloped countries.
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April 20, 2020, 04:05:16 PM
 #34

^ Definitely country of China is the ground zero of COVID-19 that their economy was affected as well. Though their economy has dropped down a bit they were able to surpass the pandemic while other countries are still in crisis. Since China was able to overcome then they are the first ones who can bounce back on their economy. While other countries are still suffering from this crisis they are already of help, in fact, many supplies that are necessary from this pandemic are coming from China. Nevertheless, I dunno, if they are mind, is in the business despite the calamity happened. AFAIK.
Advantage when you are the first one to recovered and while the world economy are suffering China is on the process of bouncing back, they are moving and slowly putting things accordingly, there's no real vaccine that's been proven to cure this pandemic virus but China's Wuhan province already open after that massive infections that circulates around the place, this province is already open meaning to say that economy now is ready to be rebuild.
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April 20, 2020, 06:18:18 PM
 #35

China is so impressive and many countries were amazed in the middle of their sudden liberation and totally, they were the first to hit by the impact of coronavirus but very fast to survive as if nothing which is envious because I think they seem to know the actual situation in advance and basically the number of confirmed cases is lower than which is compared to the US and Italy and it seems that the economy of China is the first poverty alleviation.
China's population is 1.4 billion and its sufferers are only 80+ thousand!! my question "Are you sure CHINA is honest with the number of their COVID-19 sufferers??

snip..
days after the end of this "PANDEMIC" it will be hard for many countries to revive their country's economy, as you say "PREPARE YOURSELF FOR ALL POSSIBILITIES THAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE"..



China was the first country of the COVID-19 virus and then they bought a lot of masks and PPE from all over the world, then the whole world was affected by COVID-19 and then the world lacked masks and PPE, what a nice scenario to mess the world  Shocked

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April 20, 2020, 06:26:38 PM
 #36

Quote

CHINA'S ECONOMY contracted 6.8% during the first three months of the year from the year prior – representing the country's first and largest reported economic decline since it began formally reporting data in the 1990s.


I have till date believed that the Chinese economy was going to remain strong despite the virus crisis, but I’m stunned to see that their economy is contracting, and I believe this will impact each and every country’s economy who trade a lot with them. Furthermore what do you’ll think that China should do at this stage to arrest this fall, and most importantly do you’ll believe that they’ll be able to repair their economy?.

Source:

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-04-17/chinese-economy-contracts-68-as-coronavirus-cases-revised-higher
I am not really that worried about China, they have been the hardest hit so far because it was the country were the corona virus first appeared, the ones I am worried about are the economies on Europe and the US, they are being hit by this virus in an even harder way and they were in a bad shape to begin with and now they are printing huge amounts of money, if this keeps for long then this is going to be one of the worst crisis that we had to face and the worst part is that no country will be safe, on the other hand this could be an opportunity for bitcoin to shine but at the same time it will be an incredible test for those that are holding a significant amount of bitcoin since the volatility will be extreme in such scenario.

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April 20, 2020, 08:59:12 PM
 #37

... Furthermore what do you’ll think that China should do at this stage to arrest this fall, and most importantly do you’ll believe that they’ll be able to repair their economy?...

I believe that you needlessly worry about the Chinese economy) The country has almost won the coronavirus pandemic. And its industry will soon be operating at full capacity. And given that other countries still have a long way to go before the end of the pandemic, China will now become the main supplier of industrial goods to all countries of the world.

Lol, you realize that if the other countries are suffering, the factories in China running at 101% makes ZERO sense?
Yeah, they've recovered, they are going back to work..to whom will they sell all they produce?

Of course, China lies with all the numbers they publish so to get the full picture you would have to look at the countries that are also exporters to Europe and US. And from there are only sad stories, like the garment industry in Bangladesh who is seeing 3 billion or Vietnam with 1 billion in canceled orders and that's just the tip of the iceberg, you can't produce things if you don't have somebody to sell to.

Forget the government's numbers, this is the reality in China
Quote
“It’s a complete, dramatic turnaround,” lamented Gao, estimating sales in April to May will plunge as much as 40% from last year. “Last month, it was our customers who chased after us checking if we could still deliver goods as planned. Now it’s become us chasing after them asking if we should still deliver products as they ordered.”

Without the EU and the US which represent half of the world economy in GDP terms and imports, producing things that nobody can buy is a waste of money.


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figmentofmyass
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April 20, 2020, 10:07:22 PM
 #38

Forget the government's numbers, this is the reality in China
Quote
“It’s a complete, dramatic turnaround,” lamented Gao, estimating sales in April to May will plunge as much as 40% from last year. “Last month, it was our customers who chased after us checking if we could still deliver goods as planned. Now it’s become us chasing after them asking if we should still deliver products as they ordered.”

Without the EU and the US which represent half of the world economy in GDP terms and imports, producing things that nobody can buy is a waste of money.

if chinese manufacturing were really running at full capacity, it would only intensify the deflationary effects on the economy by increasing an already saturated supply of consumer goods. continuing to produce above and beyond real demand would only push prices even lower. that would be an economic disaster for china.

the oil market is a microcosm for this effect. there is a drastic oversupply of oil on the market---so much that nobody wants to store it. so the price is crashing (deflation) and producers are now going deep in the red. this will lead to bankruptcies, market uncertainty, bailouts, and all that good stuff.

that's the trajectory the chinese manufacturing sector is on too if american and european consumer demand doesn't strongly reverse, or production isn't scaled down in preparation for a depression.

Kasabus
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April 20, 2020, 11:40:22 PM
 #39

I hope that China contracts even more, it's not healthy for humanity to have such economy based only on money and materials, look at polution, slave work, lies etc in China, this is a cancer for humanity in general
This is the perfect time to bring the industry to our contries again, no politic here, but this way China is doing business is not fair and not right
I'm not surprised anymore that China's economy is also in the rock as most of the countries are also experiencing this. But i believed China will still have its own time to back up its falling economy and they don't care whether it will be fair or unfair to some of their trading countries. China is great but this time, i think they are secretly fighting selfishly.

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April 21, 2020, 02:33:57 AM
 #40

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CHINA'S ECONOMY contracted 6.8% during the first three months of the year from the year prior – representing the country's first and largest reported economic decline since it began formally reporting data in the 1990s.


I have till date believed that the Chinese economy was going to remain strong despite the virus crisis, but I’m stunned to see that their economy is contracting, and I believe this will impact each and every country’s economy who trade a lot with them. Furthermore what do you’ll think that China should do at this stage to arrest this fall, and most importantly do you’ll believe that they’ll be able to repair their economy?.

Source:

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-04-17/chinese-economy-contracts-68-as-coronavirus-cases-revised-higher
It was a shocking event, where developed countries and developing countries experienced a very critical monetary impact due to the spread of the virus, China is one of the strongest countries in international trade but in reality, they enjoyed a drastic monetary decline, and this situation will close a long time because international countries supporting their trade experience the same thing where they experience a really serious financial slowdown. I don't think I will bet too early on what will appear next.
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