2020 bull market Bitmex trading journal

[bialystokhathaway]

Hey guys,
I am a crypto trader, probably have around 10k hours experience of watching Bitcoin charts alone and making bets of course.
Made a killing in 2015-2017, but then proceeded to lose it all due to my stupidity (no regrets).

I expect a bull market in 2020 and I am spot long some promising altcoins but besides that I will be short-term trading Bitcoin on Bitmex.
I will document all my trades and thoughts here.
I start small - 0.036BTC - I just want to prove to myself that I can turn nothing into a bank.

Some of my guidelines (I don't keep strict rules - markets are too fluid and we have to adapt):
(1) Take profits, take profits, take profits!
- Short term trading is all about compounding rather than making a killing on a single trade;
(2) Wide stoplosses;
- I am good at predicting direction but suck at timing, I hate being stopped out and experiencing market going where I expected;
(3) Avoid large losses;
- I will be risking 20% per trade and taking only sure bets;
- Though, in the beginning I will have to do some all ins as the stake is very small;
(4) Only Bitcoin, only Bitmex;
- I don't want to fill my head with some random noise so I won't be trading any other assets (like altcoins or forex) nor looking for correlations between SPX, etc.


MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS
- Bitcoin fakeouted a very important Moving Average 200 on weekly timeframe in March.
- Since then we are only going up.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/cfQlx31a/

- Was it simply a demand retest before halving that is in 2 weeks?
- It looks like we did a Wave 1 of a new bull market in 2019 and in March we finished a Wave 2.
- If that?s the case we will retest ATH?s in a couple of months.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/MTNkPdBe/

- Wave 1 went about 4.6x up.
- Wave 3 should be larger so we might be going to 50k USD.


SHORT TERM ANALYSIS
- There are no major divergences on Daily or H4.
- I think the we are in a bull market. People are waiting for a major pullback, but I think it won?t happen.

- The most important thing on daily is 7800-8000 area.
- There is a confluence of: a strong resistance, MA200 and Big Round Number 8k.
- I think we will visit 8k soon.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/F4ZyCbE2/

- There is a strong support at 7200 USD that was not retested yet.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/BwoDRkJp/
- Should MA200 daily act a strong resistance then we will have a pullback to this level.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/3nWHeAqG/

- 7200 USD level is a good place to go long.
- Once we break out of 8k then the next target is 8700 (MA50 weekly) - 9000 area (strong resistance).
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q8zOFpRt/

- After that 8k level will have to turn into a support.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/tE37tyQi/


NEXT STEPS
- I am long with a take profit at 7940. (just before 8k).
- After that I will be looking for a short setup towards 7200.


CURRENT STATS
- Bankroll: 0.0361 BTC (273 USD as of now).


OPENED A NEW TRADE
- So I went long at 7659.31 today with a stop loss at 7028.
- I am speculating that we will visit 8k level before we pull back.
- Take profit: 7940.
- I went all in risking 0.0361BTC (100% of bankroll).
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/LY0hhIJQ/

- In case we get a triangle in here I will tighten my stoploss and add to position.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/iy4SVJQL/


UPDATE at 05:51:55 PM (forum time)
- We have some Eliott Wave Flat which means a large correction is done and we are slowly climbing towards 8k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/BU0og4BF/
- But the 7740 resistance is incredibly strong. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SbtNikPT/
- So I think the first breakout out of this resistance will meet a strong rejection and probably retest 7600 area before resuming an upwards climb. https://www.tradingview.com/x/l6RCKnRJ/
- Hence I decided that I will take profit around 7820 and get in again at 7600 with a stoploss at 7390.
- If price does it like the above then we will have an Eliott Ending Diagonal (wedge) in the 5th Wave which means we will get a very quick and sharp pullback. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vd4v7Fip/

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[bialystokhathaway]

TRADE CLOSED IN PROFIT
- So yesterday evening I added to the position around 7639 and tightened my stoploss to 7491. https://www.tradingview.com/x/IdGaYIdv/
- The reason for this addition is that we got an Eliott Wave Flat and brice began drawing an Eliott Wave Impulse so the bottom of the Flat was an obvious place that would negate my view. https://www.tradingview.com/x/gzZyBAEm/
- I had a take profit at 7820 and got lucky - price achieved this target on Bitmex futures but not on XBT index and trade got closed.
- Total profit: 0.0199 BTC (55%).


CURRENT STATS
- Bankroll: 0.056 BTC.
- Return since the beginning: 1.55x.
- Number of trades: 1.
- Number of profitable trades: 1.


SHORT-TERM VIEW
- We are climbing towards 8k. (Big Round number, MA200 Daily, Trendline) https://www.tradingview.com/x/hUKs9UmU/
- This level will probably act as a magnet and pull the price.
- Correction of a larger upwards move seems to be done. https://www.tradingview.com/x/RtCIu0Y5/
- Since the end of this correction towards 8k we should get an Impulse or Ending Diagonal as it's 5th wave of a larger impulse.
- Doesn't look like an impulse because waves are overlapping each other.
- Strongest resistance is around 7740 and strongest support around 7600. https://www.tradingview.com/x/lNRnATyk/
- Wave 1 is done and Wave 2 was Flat. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Hcf87K4K/
- Since the end of Wave 2 Flat we got a clear Impulse and clear ABC correction. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Oo0tESYH/
- Seems like Wave 3 is not done yet and we will break out of 7740 area with an Impulsive move.
- The end of Wave 3 will be around 7840-7900 area. https://www.tradingview.com/x/imsgh3F2/
- Once Wave 3 is done I expect a strong rejection to retest 7600 support. Wave 2 was Flat so Wave 4 most likely will be a sharp zigzag. https://www.tradingview.com/x/cxD1DpZj/
- After that we will get a very sharp, very fast Wave 5 that will retest the 8k area. https://www.tradingview.com/x/wZub7XlK/
- As this will be an Ending Diagonal that meets a confluence of strong resistances I expect a very strong move once it's done. https://www.tradingview.com/x/lNNNBUXh/


NEXT STEPS
- I will get long soon to catch Wave C of Wave 3 towards 7840 area.
- After that I will be waiting for a sharp Zigzag to retest 7600.
- At 7600 I will jump in and ride long towards 7900-8k.


OPENED A NEW TRADE
- I went long at 7724 with Take Profit at 7840.
- Stoploss is at 7382 and I went all in again.
- I could place the Stoploss at 7636 and risk smaller % of my bankroll, but I don't want to be stopped out by some random noise.
- I am riding Wave C of Wave 3. https://www.tradingview.com/x/dGpMnWVA/


MEDIUM TO LONG TERM VIEW UPDATE
- I believe we are in a bull market and are going towards $50k in 2020. Bottom is in and we won’t fall below $4k again.
- People are in the state of panic and uncertainty due to coronavirus pandemic which is a great ground for a bull market to develop.
- Governments all around the world are printing shit ton of money and I believe part of it will go into crypto. As an example, tons of relief checks ($1200) were deposited on Coinbase as soon as people received it.
- When crypto becomes too large a danger for governments it will be banned the same way as gold was confiscated in the US in 1930s.
- I believe that they will start to take notice when BTC reaches $100k, at that time I will probably take my chips off the table and leave the crypto space. Until then we are good to go.

- Now the question is whether we will go straight up from 7200 https://www.tradingview.com/x/rdcgxIZl/ or do some larger pullback after this 100% move https://www.tradingview.com/x/YnyEwPk0/
- Yesterday I leaned toward the first option. But now I think market will trick people who are shorting to the bottom, give them a sharp fall and then immediately turn back up.
- I don't know those 2 options are what's in the cards now.

- The most important points on the chart are MA200 weekly (5700) and MA200 daily (8000). I think it's possible to retest 5700 after touching 8k.
- It can be argued that Wave 1 of a new bull market is done and now we are in a correction. https://www.tradingview.com/x/kfYHInpT/
- It's possible that the down move from the top of said Wave 1 was Impulsive and now the climb up is corrective (ABC). https://www.tradingview.com/x/dZUJZwgt/
- If that's the case then we will get another Impulse down which might retest 5700 and give people feeling that we are in a bear market. https://www.tradingview.com/x/WiJM5h90/
- Let's assume that being the case for a moment.
- Ending diagonal precedes a sharp move in the opposite direction. The first support is 7200 and the next is around 6950.
- First wave of a C wave might get us to 6950. https://www.tradingview.com/x/N5mD8Q0I/
- It will be either end of the correction https://www.tradingview.com/x/1zHldUer/ or just a Wave 1 of C. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Zp7z5wxA/
- I think the second option is more likely.
- To recap, the most likely scenario for now is a sharp impulsive move down towards 5700 after 8k gets touched.

[bialystokhathaway]

TRADE CLOSED AT A LOSS
- I expected an impulsive move to 7840, but the price was bouncing around doing corrective moves.
- Hence I closed the position by hand at a loss of 0.0068 at 7688.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/1NJCgoYy/
- Total loss: 0.0068BTC. (12%)


OPENED A NEW TRADE
- Price has difficulty breaking out of 7740 resistance.
- Move up was clearly corrective (A, flat in B, impulse in C). https://www.tradingview.com/x/rPvnY45V/
- After testing the 7740 price is drawing impulsive moves down and corrective moves up. I think those are waves 1, 2, 1, 2. https://www.tradingview.com/x/YInboy7o/
- Given the rejection of 7740 level and 1, 2, 1, 2 next to the top I think we might fall down to the next strong resistance which is at 7200 level. https://www.tradingview.com/x/PoOEXZjC/
- Hence I went short at 7685 with a stoploss at 7750 and take profit at 7200. https://www.tradingview.com/x/X87fB2my/
- Total risk: 31% of my bankroll.

[bialystokhathaway]

So I did a couple of trades yesterday and during the night, probably too many, but situation seems clear now.
Should have waited for a more clear situation, though.

TRADE CLOSED AT A LOSS
- I expected a breakdown but the price bounced around doing corrective moves and then started going up impulsively.  So I closed it by hand. https://www.tradingview.com/x/XZZ2cMka/
- Total loss: 0.00625533BTC. (12.8%)


OPENED A NEW TRADE AND CLOSED AT A LOSS
- So I did the same trade as before but with a wider stoploss (above the top). I expected breakdown towards 7500-7600 area.
- Breakdown didn't happen but price started going towards the top impulsively so I closed it by hand. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ufG1MQ1u/
- Total loss: 0.00736366 (17.2%).


OPENED A NEW TRADE AND CLOSED IN PROFIT
- Immediately after closing the previous trade price broke down impulsively and I realized that we have an ending diagonal. https://www.tradingview.com/x/aupcylQt/
- So I jumped in short with a view that we are going towards 7500-7600 area. https://www.tradingview.com/x/gl89Ibyx/
- Price broke down but started bouncing around correctively so I closed it by hand. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zKK6BFLu/
- Total profit: 0.00412524 (11.5%).


OPENED A NEW TRADE AND CLOSED IN PROFIT
- After closing the previous trade I realized that we have a triangle in here.
- So I opened a long with a very wide stoploss with an intention to hold towards 7900s.
- It showed me an immediate profit so I took it expecting more bouncing around since it was only wave D of a triangle.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/fQdlC9OH/
- Total profit: 0.00419375 (10.5%).



SHORT-TERM VIEW
- Seems like price is drawing a triangle at strong resistance 7740 and it should break out to 8k area within a day or two.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/nGHSz41g/
- The whole move from around 7400 is probably an Impulse.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/ODX3cnVk/


NEXT STEPS
- I expect break out of the triangle to 8k and then an impulsive move down to 7200.
- I will be looking for longs and shorts around this scenario.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/D8F1TnqP/

[bialystokhathaway]

OPENED A NEW TRADE
- Im trading previously mentioned triangle breakout.
- Entry 7721, SL below triangle, target 7950 (just below 8k).
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/OcdQpQYH/
- Total risk: 53%.


EDIT (April 29th, 03:18 PM forum time): I made couple of trades today but I will sum them up later.



MEDIUM TERM VIEW UPDATE.
- Ok, so we broke up on high momentum, it’s gonna fly for a while.
- We are above MA200 daily and there are no major divergences.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/adcdipon/
- There are 7 consecutive green bars on weekly. Correction must happen at some point.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/W8sZMbc1/

- There are two options now:
- (1) We are going towards ATH now in a Wave 3 of some major bull market.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/437fOydR/
- (2) We are inside some sort of a long-term triangle.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/ypxa8jCa/

- From my experience bull markets start with smaller waves and a series of pullbacks then accelerate in the middle of a trend.
- But now there are no major pullback and price accelerates.
- I think it’s not sustainable and simply a symptom of a pre-Halving euphoria.
- Once all people get in price’s gonna drop.

- Early 2019 bull market looks corrective https://www.tradingview.com/x/OD8xiMJ2/
- So most likely we are within a triangle. Option (2) https://www.tradingview.com/x/jOkqmwcp/

- I have no idea what kind of a pattern price is drawing since mid-March.
- Might be some sort of A, triangle B, C. https://www.tradingview.com/x/UpG5ip1z/
- Corrective waves are hard to read and all waves within a triangle are corrective so it’s better to focus on short-term patterns.

- To recap: I think we are going up until mid-May (halving) and I won’t be shorting until then. I don’t think we are going towards ATH in this stage.


SHORT TERM VIEW UPDATE
- As mentioned above, we broke out of MA200 daily and are technically in a bull market.
- Where are major resistance?
- There is MA50 weekly at 8730 (not super important, but worth to keep in mind).
- The next, major area is 9300-9500. Strong resistance plus local trend line.
- https://www.tradingview.com/x/6tnz65sY/
- I think 9500 might be a stopping point.

- There are no divergences on H1, H4, D1 and short-term trend is very strong.
- We might be within a large 5-th wave. https://www.tradingview.com/x/mH1Mdfaj/ of Impulse that broke out of a triangle https://www.tradingview.com/x/WwunifCS/
- I think this wave won’t stop until 9500.

- The triangle that I expected around 7700-7800 was not a triangle but a series of 1, 2, 1, 2 waves.
- I think we’ve finished some sort of a middle of the middle Wave 3, there is no M15 divergence. https://www.tradingview.com/x/mxp4lTqe/
- Now it’s gonna be a series of consolidations and impulses of 4, 5, 4, 5 waves towards 9500.
- It should take about 5 days.

- I will be holding my position to 9500 and won’t be adding to it.
- After that, no idea.