Bitcoin Whale says bitcoin prices could fall post the halving event.

[cafetools]

Actually most of the money coming in is people who already owned Bitcoin before the 10k covid19 crash, now people are buying back in, this low price gets more newbies into the space, then halving and boom, bull run.

[Lucius]

in 2016, it sorta was priced in. the market dumped pretty hard right around the halving, then kept dumping for a month afterwards. something like a 40% drop all told.

Do you really think about halving 2016? Price on May 1, 2016 was $450, and year is start will almost same price. After halving price is only go up very slow, but without any drops, so year is ended with $960 which is more than %100 increase compared to halving.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20160101&end=20161231

[figmentofmyass]

in 2016, it sorta was priced in. the market dumped pretty hard right around the halving, then kept dumping for a month afterwards. something like a 40% drop all told.

Do you really think about halving 2016? Price on May 1, 2016 was $450, and year is start will almost same price. After halving price is only go up very slow, but without any drops, so year is ended with $960 which is more than %100 increase compared to halving.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20160101&end=20161231

i remember it quite well actually. "without any drops"? on the contrary:

june 2016 high: $779
halving: july 9 2016
august 2016 low: $465

= 40.3% drop. https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitstamp/btcusd

[tbterryboy]

There has been these discussions for a while and it is going to basically be the war of our age. Halving has happened before so this is not the first one, if I am not wrong it started with 50 and dropped to 25 and it also dropped to 12.5 later, so this will be nothing new.

However, halving never happened when the bitcoin price was so high and the market cap was so big, which means we are going to get something incredible happen because there will be a lot of people who believe that bitcoin price will go up and there will be a lot of people who believe it will go down, those two will clash head on right at the halving day and whoever comes on top will be the winner and that direction price will go. There is no mysterious method where halving suddenly makes the price change, it will be the people who buy and sell that will change it.

[mahilchii]

There are less probability for drop but still it's unpredictable, I think this is not the good time for Investing on a coin. The market is extremely volatile and we are experiencing lot of ups and downs in the BTC price from last couple of days, If big whales start manipulation the price then for sure BTC price will drop at the same time altcoins will follow it. Guys be very cautious again it's not the time for Investing...

[Oasisman]

There are less probability for drop but still it's unpredictable, I think this is not the good time for Investing on a coin. The market is extremely volatile and we are experiencing lot of ups and downs in the BTC price from last couple of days, If big whales start manipulation the price then for sure BTC price will drop at the same time altcoins will follow it. Guys be very cautious again it's not the time for Investing...

It's not going to be less probable when the whales say so. But the problem is, they could be bluffing to create market panic. Though the market is unpredictable, but whales can somehow steer which direction they want the price to go.
If I could still remember correctly, there was a price drops before and after the halving. So, what these whales are saying does make sense.
It's not gonna be a bad thing for the investors if Bitcoin still drops, that's another opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin.

[bitgolden]

I was thinking about the same but looking at these increases may have changed my mind a bit. Think about it right now everyone is quite bullish on bitcoin and they realized that it may take some time to increase the price as well, they know that bitcoin will not be high right after the halving but they know that bitcoin will eventually increase, so all the people who are buying right now are not buying it to sell in two weeks, they are buying to sell in two months, so the more people who buy to hold means the less there is for people who will sell right away.

So, I may disagree with the experts right now, I am not still totally sure about what is going to happen, this is bitcoin I wouldn't be shocked if plummeted or if it skyrocketed, both sounds valid to me.

[carlfebz2]

There are less probability for drop but still it's unpredictable, I think this is not the good time for Investing on a coin. The market is extremely volatile and we are experiencing lot of ups and downs in the BTC price from last couple of days, If big whales start manipulation the price then for sure BTC price will drop at the same time altcoins will follow it. Guys be very cautious again it's not the time for Investing...

It's not going to be less probable when the whales say so. But the problem is, they could be bluffing to create market panic. Though the market is unpredictable, but whales can somehow steer which direction they want the price to go.
If I could still remember correctly, there was a price drops before and after the halving. So, what these whales are saying does make sense.
It's not gonna be a bad thing for the investors if Bitcoin still drops, that's another opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin.

You would surely doubt if those whales are calling into something you wouldnt know if this is just of their plan to manipulate things.
So its still on 50-50 if they do really tend to fall the price or not on upcoming halving.So as a trader you would either accumulate or sell
of things and wait up for that dump or fall to buy cheap but we should always expect that things can go on we least expect.
We can see up the previous halving history but it doesnt mean that it will happen again as of this year.

[aioc]

But.. keep in mind that Bitcoin has finite supply and the mining costs will rise for most miners. Imho the price will rise eventually.

If they have a different theory I don't care about it but I'm supporting the theory it's because Bitcoin is now half of what miners mine and there will be demand and the flow of supply is now cut in half the demand will put the price in half, that has been the theory ever since and I don't see it changing.

[FatFork]

If whales predict and recommend something I would do just the opposite. Everyone works and speaks for their own interests, so their predictions can have the effect they want, which is exactly the opposite of what they say.
I know. Sometimes, I don't make sense even for myself.

[BlackFor3st]

I don’t know about you’ll but this whales advice kinda feels strange, as I have only been reading that bitcoin prices will rise post the halving event, but yet he claims that bitcoin prices will fall post the halving event. According to him the effects of halving is already factored in bitcoin prices, and that’s why post the halving event bitcoin prices will tank. What do you’ll think of this is he correct, or is this some kind of mind games that he’s playing with us?.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-whale-suggests-btc-price-will-crash-halving-is-priced-in

https://cointelegraph.com/news/halving-mentions-spike-on-twitter-and-in-crypto-media

https://www.coindesk.com/how-financial-models-could-move-bitcoins-price-after-the-halving

We will not know yet as the chances that he is correct is not that low knowing that we have problem around the world that need to be solve first. After the halving is the crucial moment of bitcoin price because it can crash any moment as what he predicted if the momentum cannot sustain.

Let's just hope that it will not happen so we can enjoy the market this year especially if the bull season will be triggered.

[STT]

They should fall imo but doesn't mean they will as its never just one factor in absolute consideration.  What goes up must come down is the fair saying and not a bad guide, we have of course varying supply and demand and that is part of what all the hype for Bitcoin halving is about.    However in my simple take of the market, the speculation and loose holds on BTC for trades far exceeds as potential supply the slight adjustment to block reward, in near term and for some time after upto a year after the event its not that big a deal and only resolves over time to effect lower supply then previous.

[adaseb]

I've been following that guy for a few months now. He is indeed a big whale however his risk/reward is way off. He was seen in the past having an -$20,000,000 unrealized profit that turned into +$20,000,000 realized profit. So basically he enters way too early in most of his trades.

He stated how he trades, he said a few months back that no real money is actually flowing into bitcoin and crypto and this entire rally is just leveraged traders. Basically someone with 1 BTC can buy up to 100 BTC and its what lead us up here, issue is that if the rug is pulled then who will absorb that 100 BTC sell order? Not even bids obviously. Hence his reasoning for being short.

Looking at
https://leaderboard.bitfinex.com/

It looks like he is still in this position and currently at BTC price of $9300 he is down like $-20,000,000. It doesn't show on the 1M unrealized profit range because his losses started >30 days. And he obviously didn't get out of the position yet as his realized profits are still $0. No idea why he just doesn't take the loss.

Maybe he knows something we don't. Either way it looks like most likely we won't drop until after the halving at least and by then we can be way over $10K and his losses would be in the >-$25 million range.

[gentlemand]

I read an interesting stat today. Grayscale and cashapp are responsible for buying 52% of mined supply. That means they'll be eating existing coins if that continues and it's only going to grow from here.

This is why no one who can look beyond a few months should care in the slightest what it does in the near term.

Have said it before but there'll never be a halving as significant as this one. Inflation falling to modest levels just as it takes a step up in legitimacy won't happen again.

[exstasie]

Looking at
https://leaderboard.bitfinex.com/

It looks like he is still in this position and currently at BTC price of $9300 he is down like $-20,000,000. It doesn't show on the 1M unrealized profit range because his losses started >30 days. And he obviously didn't get out of the position yet as his realized profits are still $0. No idea why he just doesn't take the loss.

Maybe he knows something we don't. Either way it looks like most likely we won't drop until after the halving at least and by then we can be way over $10K and his losses would be in the >-$25 million range.

I actually don't see his position listed anymore, under realized or unrealized profit. Strange.

Interesting turn of events: if Joe didn't capitulate on his short position, he is capitulating on Crypto Twitter. He's saying his goodbyes and planning to delete his Twitter account:



https://twitter.com/J0E007/status/1258352927963590656

[STT]

A short is often used for a hedge, a loss in one place can be balanced by holdings elsewhere.   Thats how its often done, because its actually more efficient to trade a position then constantly alter holdings.   They might be just random bettors but my guess is they have a variety of accounts and positions and we cant be sure what is his net balance for BTC.
   I know myself I get paid to short BTC in some places (but it doesnt help that USD rates are low) and other places its possible get a return on holding BTC there so I can do both at the same time and be better off in theory at least.