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Author Topic: Mining: Halving will destroy the half of us.  (Read 808 times)
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April 28, 2020, 03:56:23 PM
 #1

The halving event is coming in a few weeks, rewards for mining will decrease to half specifically from 12.5 BTC to 6.25BTC. Small miners won't be able to contain a very much low block reward it will be lesser than what they are going to spend in mining. Huge mining entities can go on while the small ones will be forced to quit unless they expand their operation.

Poolin.com is one of the mining pools out there, its Vice President talked about it and gave his opinion, " Miners using old equipment will have to disconnect after halving"

The time has come for small miners isn't it?

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April 28, 2020, 04:16:57 PM
 #2

Possibly yes, if the price doesn't increase or remains at the current level. So purchasing bitcoin from the market instead of mining will be cheaper for the majority of the miners. But those who are using alternative sources like wind power or solar panel will be exceptions for obvious reasons.

So to sustain the current mining profitability, the price has to double as the reward will be halved. But if large number of miners go out of the business - no one will escape the suffering! Expect increase in fees and longer waiting time as an immediate result of upcoming halving.

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April 28, 2020, 04:21:40 PM
 #3

So to sustain the current mining profitability, the price has to double as the reward will be halved. But if large number of miners go out of the business - no one will escape the suffering! Expect increase in fees and longer waiting time as an immediate result of upcoming halving.
Like every halving there will be casualties. Small miners will stop their activities. Immediate price rise is unlikely to happen and even if it did, it will be less than the double tho, so yes mining fees risk to increase from now on and in the next upcoming years it will be harder for miners.

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April 28, 2020, 04:56:32 PM
 #4

One of the most important things in my opinion is to have a mining sector that is very decentralized/antifragile/safe and is able to thrive in unsafe and crisis ridden world. The current large but few miners takeover doesn't sound antifragile/decentralized to me. I believe satoshi wanted censorship resistant Bitcoin.  Large, few and stationary miners kind of weaken and contradict the censorship resistant ideal. There should be other ways(or additional ways) to incentives small miners (A regularly deflationary Bitcoin would have helped in this case) and even make mining energy efficient.
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April 28, 2020, 05:17:51 PM
 #5

The price will adjust but there's a tendency that they have to shut their small miners and wait for that price adjustment to come. Maintenance and other costs can't be sustained anymore if the price won't adjust and that's the final resort that they must do.

Not unless these small miners are using:

wind power or solar panel will be exceptions for obvious reasons.

and also cheap electricity.



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April 28, 2020, 07:05:46 PM
 #6

The halving event is coming in a few weeks, rewards for mining will decrease to half specifically from 12.5 BTC to 6.25BTC. Small miners won't be able to contain a very much low block reward it will be lesser than what they are going to spend in mining. Huge mining entities can go on while the small ones will be forced to quit unless they expand their operation.

Poolin.com is one of the mining pools out there, its Vice President talked about it and gave his opinion, " Miners using old equipment will have to disconnect after halving"

The time has come for small miners isn't it?

it's a matter of perspective. a lot of people would say the time already came for small miners years ago, with the advent of ASICs or the 2016 halving. i know people who used to mine bitcoins with GPU and FPGA at home. they wouldn't go anywhere near home mining now.

the halvings will continue magnifying the effect of economies of scale. large scale miners will have superior cost advantages. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economies_of_scale

there was a lot of fearmongering about miner shutdowns after the 2016 halving but it never had a significant effect on hash rate. miners generally plan for the long term and have no doubt prepared for this halving just the same.

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April 28, 2020, 11:25:05 PM
 #7

They always have the opportunity to switch to other cryptocurrencies that use PoW technology, or, they hope that transaction processing will bring them a sufficient amount that will suit them. Or the third option, with disconnection from the network.

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April 29, 2020, 03:03:46 AM
 #8

The halving event is coming in a few weeks, rewards for mining will decrease to half specifically from 12.5 BTC to 6.25BTC. Small miners won't be able to contain a very much low block reward it will be lesser than what they are going to spend in mining. Huge mining entities can go on while the small ones will be forced to quit unless they expand their operation.

Poolin.com is one of the mining pools out there, its Vice President talked about it and gave his opinion, " Miners using old equipment will have to disconnect after halving"

The time has come for small miners isn't it?

If based on the theory when the amount of reward obtained from the subsidy block is reduced by half, then profitability will also decrease. But if the price of Bitcoin will eventually rise (due to stock-to-flow ratio) then mining profitability also has the potential to rise.

If price movements experience an increase, the small miner still has the potential to earn profits from their mining activities.

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April 29, 2020, 04:34:21 AM
 #9

Miners using old equipment for mining will have to find another way of accumulating bitcoin, I don't know if they can gain much from transaction fee. This explains why miners shouldn't sell their bitcoin cheap just to play around the market because the difficulty level of bitcoin after halving is going higher and only modern day mining equipment can compete with this.
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April 29, 2020, 05:28:14 AM
 #10

. Small miners won't be able to contain a very much low block reward it will be lesser than what they are going to spend in mining. Huge mining entities can go on while the small ones will be forced to quit unless they expand their operation.
halving or not small miner always get small portion in block reward, giant miners with modern device and resource will make their dominance bitcoin mining.. but for long time small miners still exist although have low block reward, it will paid when its price increase alot after halving.  miners will take best price to sold their bitcoin , to closed operation cost with low block reward.

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April 30, 2020, 04:51:31 AM
 #11

Miners using old equipment for mining will have to find another way of accumulating bitcoin,...

I tend to agree with you. An increase in the price might be a good help to small miners when halving comes. During the halving in the past small miners were able to cope up and still they exist somehow, they have prepared in this coming crisis like what they had before we have no idea what they will do during the halving in order to sustain in the crisis.

If they can't really sustain the crisis rest assure they already have options on what to do next instead of just sitting around waiting to lose everything. Right now, I can see the price of bitcoin is rising again and I hope it will still continue that when halving comes it will have a lesser effect on small miners and also to all of us.

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hatshepsut93
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April 30, 2020, 05:02:29 AM
 #12

It's not about small or big, it's about how much you are paying for electricity and maintenance costs, and how efficient is your equipment. There's a ton of variables at play, so you can't just simply say that big miners stay, small miners leave. And you also can't say that halving means that mining power or miners will be cut in half, the number of miners that will be forced to leave would likely be much smaller than that.

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cafetools
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April 30, 2020, 05:18:50 AM
 #13

I guess were all going to have to sign up for HYIP cloud mining.... Grin

Hoddle long BTC (the mother) and a few others!
exstasie
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April 30, 2020, 08:06:36 AM
 #14

BTCUSD is up over 35% during the current difficulty adjustment period. Meanwhile the difficulty is only slated to rise 0.38%. https://btc.com/stats/diff

Miners pricing in the halving?

I get the feeling the whole thing will be pretty orderly. I don't think there will be a crazy downswing in hash rate.

mikeauerbach
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April 30, 2020, 09:34:01 AM
 #15

I thought that "the time had come for small miners" after 2016 halving and most of them switched to altcoins. But I'm not an expert. And what if halving reward would cause doubling the price. It's logical, to my mind.
Darker45
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April 30, 2020, 10:10:04 AM
 #16

That's just the reality of it. The competition is increasing while the reward is decreasing. And if the price of Bitcoin does not increase significantly while the production cost is rising, there might really be a number of miners who will deem it wiser to just shut down. It could significantly reduce the difficulty, though, and they could resume. But, of course, they should also upgrade to more efficient hardware and look for alternative and cheaper electric cost. 

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gentlemand
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April 30, 2020, 10:17:12 AM
 #17

I thought the little guy became toast about 6-7 years ago. Mining is certainly not something that ever crossed my mind when I arrived and it hasn't done for a second since either. Mining is pure Darwinism so I will not shed a tear for anyone who can't cut it.
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April 30, 2020, 11:01:16 AM
 #18

Sadly it is the truth. Small miners will have to quit from mining when the halving is done and they are receiving small amount of block rewards. The only way they will be able to pass through this is if the price of bitcoin should increase immediately after the halving, then the rewards they get will be enough for them.

But the way I see it, the price is not going to increase immediately after the Halving and I’m saying this based on my experience with the other halving that took place, the price doesn’t go up immediately, it takes time and move up slowly, unless things are going to be different this time around.
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April 30, 2020, 01:07:54 PM
 #19

The halving event is coming in a few weeks, rewards for mining will decrease to half specifically from 12.5 BTC to 6.25BTC. Small miners won't be able to contain a very much low block reward it will be lesser than what they are going to spend in mining. Huge mining entities can go on while the small ones will be forced to quit unless they expand their operation.

Poolin.com is one of the mining pools out there, its Vice President talked about it and gave his opinion, " Miners using old equipment will have to disconnect after halving"

The time has come for small miners isn't it?

What is your definition of small/huge?

It's all relative TBH. Bitcoin mining difficulty has been increasing over years. In initial days, high tech computers were enough. But now thousands of ASIC miners mining simultaneously are needed. And this rise wasn't immediate or associated with halvings. It was gradual with the popularity of bitcoin. So small miners as per my definition had left mining way before in 2015. Now few more will leave (most probably will change the coin they mining). Mining isn't a secure office job. It comes with risk and you have to upgrade yourself with time to achieve break-even plus profit else you have to leave, as simple as that. But the most important fact is that Bitcoin will become scarce and valuable and that's what matters the most.
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April 30, 2020, 01:29:13 PM
 #20

The halving event is coming in a few weeks, rewards for mining will decrease to half specifically from 12.5 BTC to 6.25BTC. Small miners won't be able to contain a very much low block reward it will be lesser than what they are going to spend in mining. Huge mining entities can go on while the small ones will be forced to quit unless they expand their operation.

Poolin.com is one of the mining pools out there, its Vice President talked about it and gave his opinion, " Miners using old equipment will have to disconnect after halving"

The time has come for small miners isn't it?

It's inevitable small miners will have to give up, but I'm sure small miners have seen this one coming and have calculated their profits and losses, I have seen some miners already selling their mining rigs in our local online shop, three years ago you seldom see this kind of mining rigs being sold in that marketplace.

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