The halving Gusto

[Coyster]

Alot of newbies fall under the influence of "the halving gusto" and I think it good they be forewarned/corrected. Just today I was contacted by two of my friends(total novices on bitcoin)at the University of their desire to buy bitcoins(they've heard me say one or two things about bitcoin)because they read somewhere on the internet that there's something called halving that's about to happen and bitcoin is going to rise to more than fifty thousand dollars(this friends of mine are actually planning to buy bitcoins with far more than they have, so they're going to most likely borrow/take loans)I did advice without discouraging them on bitcoin anyway.

I don't know how many newbies here on bitcointalk are planning on doing the same thing, the halving is well anticipated, and it may(or may not)have a high appreciation in the price of bitcoin; But with that said there are things you should not do.
1)You should not invest more than what you can afford to lose because of the upcoming halving.
2)Do not take loans just to invest in bitcoin(because the halving is close), you could be left with debts to pay.
3)If you do not have knowledge about bitcoin/halving(like my friends), don't just act based on what's on the internet, always verify to make sure you are making the right choice.
4)If you have never invested in bitcoin, you shouldn't just do so now because of the halving, you will be jumping the part you have to learn, and that could mean making mistakes.
5)Do not feel the pressure of investing because alot of people are, it should be your decision and choice to make.

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[boyptc]

For the newbies, additionally,  is to always do the common advice of DYOR.

#2 is true.

I think there's someone who shared his story here a few years ago and lost a lot because they've bought at the peak and then the bear comes next.

[Lucius]

It was to be expected that things like this would start to happen with the halving approach, especially since we see that the price has increased by $1000 in the last few days. The media have been making a big deal about halving, and given the expertise of their journalists, they started putting halving in the context of the one from 2016. Of course, the bigger the numbers, the bigger FOMO is created and people want to invest, so they don't miss out on possible profits.

For all those who have been involved in crypto for a long time, it is well known fact that best time to invest is at the bottom or in the bear market, and certainly avoid investing at time like this.

I agree with your advices, and I hope people have learned something from what happened back in 2017/2018. History can always be repeated, but there is always the possibility that halving will not do what most expect. The world has changed a lot in the last 4 years, let's be careful with our assets and all risky investments.

[20kevin20]

People tend to look at ATHs and believe that if they were achieved before, a higher price point is imminent. BTC was ~$20k and it's been years since we had that ATH. Yet, we haven't gotten close to it again since then and not touching it ever again is a possibility many ignore.

All my friends who've borrowed money to get into BTC somehow made their investment go wrong and one of them sits on a +$4k debt as of now. Most of them bought when the wave was going uphill and sold on dumps and finally, when BTC stopped dumping and went straight uphill for days, they bought close to the highest points. Investments with no knowledge (not even basic) about economics and crypto's past is a miss or a hit every time you make a move.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

Ok so I tried buying bitcoin peer2peer recently and most of my previous sellers are refusing to sell. As for those still willing to sell, they have placed an outrageous price on the Naira per Dollar conversion rate, all this is as a result of halving and it's making bitcoin quite scarce in the P2P market. For those your friends wanting to buy bitcoin, in addition to all you have said also advice them not to get pressure into buying from peer2peer as sellers are taking advantage of the halving hype to sell their coins above normal price and probably rebuy from exchanges that have the option to deposit local fiat to buy bitcoin (many newbies aren't aware of this yet, they still want to transact with previous users into the industry before them).

Don't get why people have to wait for this late to get bitcoin that they would had probably gotten very cheap few weeks/months back. Nevertheless advice them to buy into the ideology bitcoin is selling and not just chase after the price gain benefit it offers as that'll help them hold firm during the bear period.

[Coyster]

Don't get why people have to wait for this late to get bitcoin that they would had probably gotten very cheap few weeks/months back.

FOMO, they do not want to miss out(back then the hype wasn't this much)on what they read in the news, journalists have started writing a lot of articles about the halving you know, when novices read this articles, then the fear of missing out clothes them, then out of impulse they are suddenly "over interested". It's the same thing that happens anytime the price of bitcoin goes high, newbies come into the forum more during those periods(man, not from the genital point of view, loves quick money). Bitcoin crossed 8000 today, I'm sure many newbies will pull out from their shells and visit the forum more often as a result(and start threads on the bull run).

[plvbob0070]

You really have a good point @Coyster. Regardless if there's bitcoin halving or not, it is really not advisable to invest in cryptocurrency using loaned money. People are expecting about the upcoming halving, so I understand why they suddenly get interested in investing in bitcoin. Though I don't think what they are planning to do is a good choice since both of them are still new to this kind of investment. It's still not too late in investing in bitcoin, so they shouldn't rush everything. I think it's better OP if you would guide them and teach them about crypto.

Making actions without properly understanding it or its consequences might lead them in despair or in regretting why they make that kind of action. Investment requires time and planning, it's isn't that easy since money is at risk.

[Lucius]

Don't get why people have to wait for this late to get bitcoin that they would had probably gotten very cheap few weeks/months back.

I write in my previous post - the key word is FOMO (fear of missing out), but it's also about getting in at the right time. By this I mean that the majority still calculating it is better to keep fiat then crypto, and it follows that most are investing when a possible bull run is on the horizon. From the perspective of the average poorly-versed investor who wants to make a quick profit, it makes more sense (with less risk) to invest now than to invest a month ago when BTC drop as rock more than 50%.

However, this is the perfect time for bull trap and I would be pretty careful, because there are too many people hinting that another big crash could happen. This of course may not be true, but if it happens, many will remain empty pockets, which today may have even greater implications than in previous years.

[20kevin20]

I write in my previous post - the key word is FOMO (fear of missing out), but it's also about getting in at the right time. By this I mean that the majority still calculating it is better to keep fiat then crypto, and it follows that most are investing when a possible bull run is on the horizon. From the perspective of the average poorly-versed investor who wants to make a quick profit, it makes more sense (with less risk) to invest now than to invest a month ago when BTC drop as rock more than 50%.

However, this is the perfect time for bull trap and I would be pretty careful, because there are too many people hinting that another big crash could happen. This of course may not be true, but if it happens, many will remain empty pockets, which today may have even greater implications than in previous years.

Some friends of mine wanted to put all their cash in BTC and I warned them it might be the worst choice in their life. This time of uncertainty comes with impressive risks. We just don't know what's to come anymore..

A few years ago, pre-bull/bear runs, we had a somewhat good situation (at least a better one than today's) overall and even if an investment had gone wrong, we had the freedom to make different moves and recover from losses. But right now, it looks like cash is king and will still be the king for a while - probably until we start running out of it.

So unless one has a large bag of money sitting in the corner & waiting to be placed into a risky investment, I would sincerely advise not to take the risk. Especially if your living lays solely on that remaining amount of money.

[JHORN]

But even after everything surrounding crypto and Bitcoin I can still see clearly that those who missed out or take their losses lack the patience, Bitcoin appreciate in value with time, buying at 7k doesn't mean price can't hit 10k, the fact is when? The key to success here is just patience, nothing more

[Jawhead999]

Great statement @Coyster I also agree with you. Back in 2012 and 2016 Bitcoin is not so popular as now (I also don't know bitcoin at this time ). IMO Bitcoin become popular when the uptrend on 2017, and have a great ROI (top high return investment). People are in FOMO about bitcoin halving, they're think if this halving the bitcoin price will raise like 1st and 2nd halving. Also many journalism, blog, or news always discussing or creating about this FOMO, actually this can attract many people to buy bitcoin before halving and sell it after halving or hit new ATH (expected $100,000 as below images)




I also checked the google trends about "bitcoin halving", the result is really impressive

Interest over time
Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term.

1st halving : 0 or < 1 value
2nd halving : 29 value
3rd halving : 100 value 

I think on 3rd halving, we will see downtrend or uptrend after halving

[The Cryptovator]

Same thing happen with me a week ago. Although he didn't asked about buy new bitcoin but had asked to hold his existing coin. I simply explain him about halving and ofcourse I told there is possibilty to increase price as well since lots of new peoples want to buy bitcoin for this occasion. But I warn him about losses, there wouldn't be any guaranteed return or whatever. Today he thanks me since I had gave suggestion to hold upto near halving. If someone expecting good return they should know about risk, so invest or hold what you can afford losses. More importantly everyone should know the technology of bitcoin and bitcoin halving as well.

[slackovic]

I think it's important to explain to people that no one can predict the price and that they can invest, but they should also be aware that the chance of them losing their money is probably the same as the chance of earning money. Don't tell people not to invest because they are new to this. Tell them to be smart, careful and to invest only the money that they don't need so if they lose it, they won't be broke.

[Lucius]

...actually this can attract many people to buy bitcoin before halving and sell it after halving or hit new ATH (expected $100,000 as below images)

People only see the price, but most live in the misconception that $100 000 will be something that happens right after halving or a few months after. However, most only invest in the short term and will miss out on the next ATH because they will be eager and very likely to sell long before that happens. To make matters worse for them, they will buy again only when we approached the new ATH, some experts will selling them stories about BTC to $1 million, and then correction will slaughter them like last time.

Then we enter a new cycle that begins with a new crypto winter, countless articles that will declare BTC dead, Ponzi scheme and sad stories of those who invested everything they had and now they were left with only debts.

I think on 3rd halving, we will see downtrend or uptrend after halving

Now you're talking like some of the famous experts who want to be covered in both situations, but you haven't really said anything that helps anyone. Although there is a third option, which is that the price stays about the same after halving for the next few months.

[Pffrt]

As a matter of fact halving may not have any impact on Bitcoin price, there is no big deal with halving, even price don't surge after halving happened in the past years, I don't know why people are making stupid decisions because of the upcoming Bitcoin halving

Halving has a significant affect on bitcoin price if you think technically. The rewards will be halved, so the supply from the miners will be halved. Miners need to sell btc always because of maintaining their cost. So, the total supply will be decreased which will create more inequality in demand/supply which in short time possibly create significant price pump. This is both the technical and theoretical explanation why people speculate halving may increase the btc price.

[NavI_027]

Don't tell people not to invest because they are new to this. Tell them to be smart, careful and to invest only the money that they don't need so if they lose it, they won't be broke.

You have a good point dude. That's right however I think this is not really the right time for them to invest since the market is now booming. I can foresee that if they insist it, they might be late for earning. If an expereienced like me don't yet invest then what more for them (actually I just miss the boat that's why, my bad *facepalm). Maybe I will wait a little bit longer hoping the price decline.

[finaleshot2016]

Since bitcoin is again mainstream in social media, particularly Facebook and Twitter, my friends and schoolmates know that I'm still dedicated to investing time and money in bitcoin. So they keep asking me whether it's worth investing in bitcoin because the halving is close and I keep on telling that there's always a chance that even uncommon BTC instances will happen.

As per your suggestions, I think it's best to include how to quantify the percentage gain and loss and make them aware of what they're trying to do. Those newbies will stick on short-term investments because they're still afraid since it's their first time. Then it's best not to encourage them to engage because they don't have the guts and confidence in Bitcoin. It's going to be a waste of time if you entertain them at this time when the BTC is already at a $9k high.

[odolvlobo]

Alot of newbies fall under the influence of "the halving gusto" and I think it good they be forewarned/corrected.

It's also called being drunk on hopium and following the wishful thinking investment strategy.

The rewards will be halved, so the supply from the miners will be halved. Miners need to sell btc always because of maintaining their cost. So, the total supply will be decreased which will create more inequality in demand/supply which in short time possibly create significant price pump.

That is a popular misconception. The bitcoin supply is always increasing, even with the halving.

The halving does not reduce the number of bitcoins. It reduces the rate at which the number of bitcoin increases. The supply consists of the bitcoins available for sale. As the number of bitcoin increases, so does the supply. The number of bitcoins is always increasing (even with the halving), therefore the supply of bitcoins is always increasing.

[LincolnMikkel]

But even after everything surrounding crypto and Bitcoin I can still see clearly that those who missed out or take their losses lack the patience, Bitcoin appreciate in value with time, buying at 7k doesn't mean price can't hit 10k, the fact is when? The key to success here is just patience, nothing more

That's why Bitcoin is supposed not to be shorted usually. You simply can't be 100% accurate with the price swings predictions so it will result in a great losses. But on the long run you won't lose if DYOR and bought at the right time.

[dkbit98]

I expected to see more newbies around halving time.
People in general speak more about Bitcoin and halving (even during lockdown madness) , and youtubers have again started with 100k and similar higher moon price predictions...
Don't follow the herd.