Crucial month ahead: Bitcoin goes to 20k or 3k range

[Bossian]

Downtrend still intact until Bitcoin price breaks above 9.5kish and most importantly 10.5k to create a higher high compared to previous high (10.5k in October 2019 and February 2020).

Simple strategy here: short the market and set a stop loss at 10.7k, take profit at 3.5k. That's a nice "risk vs. reward" strategy.  

Or... wait until end of May to see if Bitcoin price breaks the downtrend above 9.5k, then 10.5k and decide accordingly. My opinion is if we see a price above 10.5k this year, 20k will be very quickly reached. However, if we are rejected again, we might see a lower low compared to previous low (3.7k), which means 3k area, maybe even below.

Buying right now at 9.2k is gambling. Again my opinion. And by the way this week's rally is very similar to what we saw in February when Bitcoin price rallied from 9k to 10.5k. Hmmm...

Best of luck! 

[exstasie]

Downtrend still intact until Bitcoin price breaks above 9.5kish and most importantly 10.5k to create a higher high compared to previous high (10.5k in October 2019 and February 2020).

Higher lows, lower highs. It's a contracting range, not so much a downtrend. I could see something like this playing out:

Buying right now at 9.2k is gambling.

I would definitely agree with that. There was good risk/reward in the $7,000s but here? Not so much. I closed my longs and I'm on the sidelines waiting for a good setup.

[jossiel]

Buying right now at 9.2k is gambling. Again my opinion. And by the way this week's rally is very similar to what we saw in February when Bitcoin price rallied from 9k to 10.5k. Hmmm...

Best of luck! 

It is a gamble and as you can see within just few hours, bitcoin plummet again.

If somebody bought from the range of $9.2k - $9.4k then they have lost with the correction that the market is showing. I know it's hard to accept that there's this analysis that bitcoin is still open for that possibility that it can go as low as $3k or even worse than that.

The month of March just proved that when it plummet under $5k.

[cafetools]

Are you kidding? There is NO possible way BTC will go to 3k! If that were going to happen it would have happened during the covid19 flash crash at 4.5k.

That FUD is over and theres not any worse news in the immediate future. You saying BTC could go to 3k is based on you drawing lines lets face it, thats all it is!

[UnDerDoG81]

Always in bullish hope here but if we see 3k levels I would be damn happy! Got some fiat savings and dont want to hodl in fiat. Especially since the German government thinks about to expropriate their citizens due to covid19.

Are you kidding? There is NO possible way BTC will go to 3k! If that were going to happen it would have happened during the covid19 flash crash at 4.5k.

That FUD is over and theres not any worse news in the immediate future. You saying BTC could go to 3k is based on you drawing lines lets face it, thats all it is!

Well, we know Billy is a clairvoyant. 2 days agi he said we could see a bio weapon terror attack in the future and talked about phase 2 of covid19. So, this thing is not over yet. Billy still have some plans to keep this virus alive!

[Quidat]

Buying right now at 9.2k is gambling. Again my opinion. And by the way this week's rally is very similar to what we saw in February when Bitcoin price rallied from 9k to 10.5k. Hmmm...

Best of luck! 

It is a gamble and as you can see within just few hours, bitcoin plummet again.

If somebody bought from the range of $9.2k - $9.4k then they have lost with the correction that the market is showing. I know it's hard to accept that there's this analysis that bitcoin is still open for that possibility that it can go as low as $3k or even worse than that.

The month of March just proved that when it plummet under $5k.

Its always been the hardest part in dealing with this very speculative market since we know that it can broke out any good technical analysis out there.
Luckily i havent bought when the price peak on 9k+ yet my guts telling me about being fomo'ed and should wait up for some correction and the price
did really plummet after that and that one save my ass on getting a negative or in red portfolio.

We can still possibly go down as bad of 3k because i do also have the feels that there would be some sort of dump before the halving occurs.

[Oasisman]

Are you kidding? There is NO possible way BTC will go to 3k! If that were going to happen it would have happened during the covid19 flash crash at 4.5k.

That FUD is over and theres not any worse news in the immediate future. You saying BTC could go to 3k is based on you drawing lines lets face it, thats all it is!

It might not be possible atm. but you need to remember that the halving does not guarantee a good price, and remember Bitcoin is such a very unpredictable investment and everything is possible.
The 3k range is just another analysis from OP based on the past price movements, since that the least we can do to draw closer to the next possible movements.
This was also caused by the market sentiments, and people tends to follow the trends.

[cafetools]

It might not be possible atm. but you need to remember that the halving does not guarantee a good price, and remember Bitcoin is such a very unpredictable investment and everything is possible.
The 3k range is just another analysis from OP based on the past price movements, since that the least we can do to draw closer to the next possible movements.
This was also caused by the market sentiments, and people tends to follow the trends.

Yes and im just saying that even saying the number 3k is so far off its not even funny. Not that he is an expert but it seems like he is just throwing numbers out there out of thin air. In order for 3k or under to happen there is going to have to be news WORSE THAN TO COVID 19 news.

[STT]

I dont count 2017 but there is a series of lower highs going back like 11 months or so.   Its fair to say there something of a make or break scenario here, most likely we are to retract before deciding in the future rather then now especially.    A break upwards to 10k from here would alter a negative trend of some time meaning its quite alot more likely to then act more positively then during that period.     In 2017 or even last year it was a series of rising lows that convinced me we were to go a distance upwards, it was not clear how far up though.   
  Right now I still think we have got more time to develop before a grander move, we'll celebrate early a few times before it does go all out on a proper move I reckon.

[bgaf]

I almost bought some additional btc last night or the time it was above 9k due to very rapid movement. But it seems that it was a try hard pump. Then few minutes after reaching 9.4k it go down fast. Means someone really wanted to pump and make some hype. I also seen the 16million minted tether release yesterday and I am thinking this was used to create such surge.

3k level is off the chart if your gonna rely on chart but nothing is impossible since it happened before last March so it can still go down fast if the events dont favor the halving.

[GreatArkansas]

I almost bought some additional btc last night or the time it was above 9k due to very rapid movement. But it seems that it was a try hard pump. Then few minutes after reaching 9.4k it go down fast. Means someone really wanted to pump and make some hype. I also seen the 16million minted tether release yesterday and I am thinking this was used to create such surge.
(....)

For what I noticed on that extreme price action move was a lot of people closed their long positions or in short, they take profit for their long trade position and we are now in a pullback phase. I am afraid also on the chart in the first post where it could be probably a huge dump if we will get rejected again in that trendline. But still, let's be positive.

[hatshepsut93]

I wanted to short a little bit of coins yesterday, but got lazy and went to sleep, now I think it was a good idea. Not that I think that we'll go straight to $3k, but a correction is highly likely and it's likely that the price will drop after the halving, since there's nothing big with the day itself.

I just don't see Bitcoin breaking $10k resistance for long, as your chart shows, the selling pressure is big, it will take a lot of time till it will happen, I'd be happy if it happened by the end of this year or the beggining of 2021. We will likely see that support and resistance line coming very close to each other at some point.

[thecodebear]

Are you kidding? There is NO possible way BTC will go to 3k! If that were going to happen it would have happened during the covid19 flash crash at 4.5k.

That FUD is over and theres not any worse news in the immediate future. You saying BTC could go to 3k is based on you drawing lines lets face it, thats all it is!

Exactly this.

It took a global market panic crash to send bitcoin back to 3000s for all of a few minutes. No, 3000s is never coming back. Without that pandemic panic crash Bitcoin never would have got near 3000s, let alone 4000s or 5000s this year. Maybe 6000s will come back briefly during a correction...maybe! Most likely it'll range in the 7000s and 8000s and 9000s in the near future.

Looking at the steepness of the recent rise it seems likely it'll correct back to 6000s or 7000s, but we also need to take into account the steepness of the recent rise is because of how harsh the panic crash was in March. So in that context the steep rise can be seen more as a correction from the vast over-sell in March. My best guess is a correction back to 7000s in the near future to show that former resistance zone is now support, then moving back up to 8000s and 9000s.

The idea that this is a make or break month that will send Bitcoin to 3000 or 20,000 very soon is...absurd. It is never going back to 3000s, and it'll probably take at least a year before it makes it back to 20,000. Drawing one line on a chart doesn't mean anything.

[Febo]

Crucial month ahead: Bitcoin goes to 20k or 3k range

There will be definitely bumpy months ahead. But I dont give that much chances Bitcoin will go to $3000. I think $5000 is more reasonable next bottom for Bitcoin if economic situation worsen in upcoming months.

[vycl87]

I just read and checked something more interesting.

Bitcoin price has been at least $ 8900 each year in May for 3 years. And today the same happened again on the first day of May 2020.

May 27, 2019
Open $8.674,07
High $8.907,17
Low $8.668,70
Close $8.805,78


May 11, 2018
Open $9.052,96
High $9.052,96
Low $8.394,46
Close $8.441,49

[bitgolden]

You do realize that many and MANY people said that $7.3k was a huge resistance point and there was no way bitcoin could be anything without breaking over $7.3k and right now it is well beyond that price right? I mean $9.5k is something substantial at this time around but that doesn't mean that two options are just go to $20k or go to $3k.

Obviously you wrote it so it would get some attention, people love those type of things and I get that, however that doesn't mean that you should use clickbait to get them here. I do think that when bitcoin goes up it does go up a lot, but probably like 2k or 3k higher, and when it drops it usually drops 2k or 3k as well unless it is a major global pandemic, which even with that we recovered very nicely as well, so no need to talk in extremes.

[exstasie]

Typical TA bilge. Who gives a shit about a line?

The market does. Close a daily/weekly candle well outside of a months-long (or years-long) trend line and see what happens.



As long as the market keeps giving us example after example like this, people are going to keep trading these breakouts and rejections.

Here's mine - some shit'll happen that we might expect. Some shit'll happen that we don't.

Absolutely, I always say markets are unpredictable. So why do I trade them? Because good traders can make money off coin flips with proper risk management. When you start pricing in successfully back tested trade setups (incorporating candlesticks, S/R and trend line breaks, chart patterns, etc.) then you could be looking at a 60% + win rate. That can yield a lot of profit over time.

[STT]

It is supposed to reflect something greater, its usually really simple.  Like 6000 price was significant for ages so in future when we cross that line it has significance.    Put it this way, the longer we spend in area the more it accumulates volume and a variety of people are holding or looking at this price.   Still doesnt have to matter because big news is bigger volume then normal and we roll over the kerbs if they are there at all but traders love this stuff because of the gradient.
   If they trade using borrowed money they dont want a long flat upward ascension they want to capture the rapid sharp move with a big candle.   Also theres another factor, if I borrow 10k to go long I'm then pretty nervous going to sleep on that buy because of that news factor that overrides every supposed pattern.   Lots of hot money is in the market usually.   Hot money also means we are leashed to the dollar story of contraction or inflation, hence we sold off in March.
Consensus is what moves markets really, when everyone agrees then we all push in the same direction against the wall and it falls.    Trying to spot a pattern is just a way of guessing when that might occur, passing a price which held 4 times previous and now fell away is time for caution anyhow.

So far as downtrend now then no I dont like it really or I dont give it much credence.  I'd rather focus on flat resistance likely, we've passed the July selloff as I originally marked it.    Or we can look at 200 DMA which everyone knows about and is a fair measure of our progress longer term.  I dont count MA as TA as its just simple maths and marking a line in the sand shows the tide, nothing too involved in that.

[ololajulo]

Am always surprised to see more responses like this when the price is pumping, more new threads and revive of old threads. It has been said severally not to buy when the price is going up yet you see old fellas in the forum that didnt buy in 2018 at $3100 when there was no pandemic, now planning to fall for the bull-trap. I wish I understand the psychology this market usually play on traders at this time. halving is the only factor for the pump and we have more factors to allow immediate post halving dump

[Wexnident]

I'd actually wait until the months over before thinking of investing. I'd expect the current standoff to stay quite a bit since BTC jumped up by quite a bit from its initial price of around $7k a few days ago. It's a huge jump and would probably require a few days of it being steady there so i'd expect the price to go down below the average a few more times before jumping up again. I wouldn't even be surprised if BTC retraced itself once more in addition to the retrace it has done right now to $8.8k though the chances are a bit on the low side since it has stayed at that price for around 24h already. Still, it wouldn't go up past $9k in the next few days probably and instead spend time reinforcing itself.