US and China are very close to starting a war in the South China Sea

[Juggy777]

I’m not sure how did we miss this but it seems that China and USA are on a conflicting course, and one silly error from either sides will lead to a full blown war that both won’t be able to back out from.

Here's What You Need To Know: China is playing offense in the South China Sea. By establishing facts on the ground (indeed, establishing “ground”), it is creating a situation in which normal U.S. behavior looks like destabilizing intervention.

At this stage it’s safe to assume that both the countries don’t want a war, but what if one of their soldiers are caught crossing a line unintentionally, and is gunned down then I do expect strong retaliation from the country who’s soldier was gunned down and that could lead to a war like situation.

Accidental war is rare, but not impossible. Common to all of these scenarios is the potential that Chinese (or less likely, American) public opinion might become so inflamed as to box in policymakers. If Xi Jinping, who has made assertive foreign policy a cornerstone of his administration, feels that he cannot back down and survive politically, then things could get unpredictable very quickly.

Source:

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/first-real-us-china-war-could-be-fought-south-china-sea-143847

[1714734305]

1714734305

[1714734305]

1714734305

[1714734305]

1714734305

[Broly46]

What’s stopping anybody from launching the attack first? I think there is hidden rules in that “war” who attack first will be rewarded with distrust treaty?? That may make amazon google apple blizzard valve move everything to China more rapidly??

[akram143]

But we may not see war until the corona spread stops because it is impossible to do war with social distancing.

Its more like for political benefits, Trump starts accusing China since this corona and now he publicly states that China intentionally spreads this virus just to make him lose on the coming presidential election.

[BADecker]

China has the advantage. They only have a few miles to go to get food. But the US has to go all the way back to America. Or aren't we social distancing fish in the ocean?

 

[avikz]

US would indulge into any war with China in foreseeable future. No matter whatever Trump says or yells! US very well know the power and capability of China - they are not Iraq or Afghanistan. China is the 2nd most powerful country in the world and technically very advanced as well. That's the reason why Trump says a lot of things against China but does nothing! If US really wants to defeat China, they will only be able to do it by weakening their economy. US can order all homegrown company to shift their base of operations from China to other countries. This way they will be able to start impacting their economy. But if US really wants to attack first, the defeat will be certain.

Also US have to remember, that a lot of south Asian countries will support China if there is a war. Because China has invested billions of dollars into their economy. So they are somewhat bound to offer help to China in case a war happens. It's easier said than done! 

[BADecker]

^^^ You're probably right. Any show of opposition is probably for the same reasons the fake Coronavirus pandemic exists... to blind the people to what is really going on.

[TECSHARE]

China has the advantage. They only have a few miles to go to get food. But the US has to go all the way back to America. Or aren't we social distancing fish in the ocean?

 

Not true. While the ocean is closer, they already over fish their waters, which is part of why they are taking ocean resources of other nations (besides the oil, minerals, and military advantage). China is HEAVILY dependent on food imports. The USA produces a very large percentage of the world's food supply. If they went to war with the US, the likely domestic result would be famines in China, which would quickly also result in mass unrest.

[BADecker]

China has the advantage. They only have a few miles to go to get food. But the US has to go all the way back to America. Or aren't we social distancing fish in the ocean?

 

Not true. While the ocean is closer, they already over fish their waters, which is part of why they are taking ocean resources of other nations (besides the oil, minerals, and military advantage). China is HEAVILY dependent on food imports. The USA produces a very large percentage of the world's food supply. If they went to war with the US, the likely domestic result would be famines in China, which would quickly also result in mass unrest.

Thank you for correcting me. Do they have frankenmeat over there? Or if they break the lockdowns, maybe it's called a "franken-meet."

[Cnut237]

it is creating a situation in which normal U.S. behavior looks like destabilizing intervention.

Source:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/first-real-us-china-war-could-be-fought-south-china-sea-143847

Normal US behaviour is destabilising intervention. At least since WW2 finished. A lot of the current instability in the world is due to US adventurism.
Not saying China is innocent in this, they are not, they are clearly trying to flex their muscles and establish control over the area.
But if the US sending missile-equipped naval destroyers halfway around the world is normal behaviour, then there's something wrong with 'normal'.

I'm not really attacking America here, just the sense of entitlement that comes with being the most powerful country in the world. I'm from the UK, we used to act like that too (partition of the middle-east being one example), and the only reason the UK acts less like that nowadays is that we have lost almost all power on the global stage.

[JSRAW]

~snip~
Also US have to remember, that a lot of south Asian countries will support China if there is a war. Because China has invested billions of dollars into their economy. So they are somewhat bound to offer help to China in case a war happens. It's easier said than done!  

South Asia... huh?

Pakistan - Client state , all they can do is leverage this situation by attacking in Kashmir, then fail miserably one more time.

India - Delhi kinda advocating or still dreaming about NAM's policy in some extent which is irrelevant in recent time as they are key player in the Indo-pacific and part of the QUAD. so please take a Hint.

Sri lanka- Colombo is fed up with debt trap.

Bangladesh- Dhaka, not interested

Maldives- Seriously?

Nepal- Not expecting anything from Kathmandu, except some chirping from their communist party

Bhutan- Big No

Afganistan - Hell no..

Please enlighten me, I might be missing something here.

[Gyfts]

China has the advantage. They only have a few miles to go to get food. But the US has to go all the way back to America. Or aren't we social distancing fish in the ocean?

 

Not true. While the ocean is closer, they already over fish their waters, which is part of why they are taking ocean resources of other nations (besides the oil, minerals, and military advantage). China is HEAVILY dependent on food imports. The USA produces a very large percentage of the world's food supply. If they went to war with the US, the likely domestic result would be famines in China, which would quickly also result in mass unrest.

It tends to be a two way street. The U.S. supplies things like wheat to China, but China also supplies pharmaceutical drugs to the U.S. which would be cut out in time of war.

There's been talks of trying to produce drugs here in the U.S. but the only way I see that happening is if the government steps in and starts giving out massive paychecks to biotech/pharm companies to start pumping them out. Even this would take years to actually accomplish before independence.

[squatz1]

China has the advantage. They only have a few miles to go to get food. But the US has to go all the way back to America. Or aren't we social distancing fish in the ocean?

 

Not true. While the ocean is closer, they already over fish their waters, which is part of why they are taking ocean resources of other nations (besides the oil, minerals, and military advantage). China is HEAVILY dependent on food imports. The USA produces a very large percentage of the world's food supply. If they went to war with the US, the likely domestic result would be famines in China, which would quickly also result in mass unrest.

+1 to that.

People in America don't understand that just because you have sheer numbers, really doesn't mean too much in modern warfare. If you're able to cut them off from their LARGE amount of trade, which they truly rely on, they'd crumble very soon thereafter.

Imagine if all of the big American companies (and EU companies) that produce and buy things from China left and went to some other country b/c a war broke out b/w the too. Yes some American businesses would lose some profits as they had to leave, but the Chinese would lose pretty much their biggest market (US Tech and world consumers)

[Naida_BR]

A war is not going to happen in the situation that we are right now.
COVID-19 is the first enemy for China and US right now and they are not going to fight each other.
Their hospitals are full of people and economies are still under quarantine - at least the USA's is still.
They don't have any benefit of starting a war.

[squatz1]

A war is not going to happen in the situation that we are right now.
COVID-19 is the first enemy for China and US right now and they are not going to fight each other.
Their hospitals are full of people and economies are still under quarantine - at least the USA's is still.
They don't have any benefit of starting a war.

I'd have to agree with this as well, we're not going to start a war over the Coronavirus (which is not the case of this OP) and we're not going to start a war over some minor issue regarding China trying to takeover areas in the South China Sea. I'm pretty sure I've read the articles saying that China is building islands - yes, building Islands - to be used for defense and control purposes.

The most we're going to see is sanctions due to Chinas inaction during the Coronavirus. That's it.

[KingScorpio]

China has the advantage. They only have a few miles to go to get food. But the US has to go all the way back to America. Or aren't we social distancing fish in the ocean?

 

not if local traders accept usd from us soldiers, but in germany the us soldiers simply ordered the local population to feed them

food can be stored concentraded, it is much more difficult to to logistics around military machines.

[Viper1]

US would indulge into any war with China in foreseeable future. No matter whatever Trump says or yells! US very well know the power and capability of China - they are not Iraq or Afghanistan. China is the 2nd most powerful country in the world and technically very advanced as well.

China is a nuclear power that's true. But beyond that. The US has 11 carriers (9 to 11 full strike groups), China has 2 with a 3rd supposed to be out next year maybe. Near as I can tell, China has roughly 1,580 fighter type aircraft. The US has 2,210 NOT including the carrier planes. So on paper, the US has superiority. Not like it matters, history has shown that when the country at the top starts to feel threatened by an up and comer, they go to war. Unless something major happens to derail that, it's inevitable. Or we can hope they do it economically instead.

[ChiBitCTy]

No they aren’t. China vs the US would lead to WWIII.  China would lose and they know it, so they won’t go there. The US would suffer countless tragedies and spend countless resources they can’t afford to spend. Would send the world in to a Great Depression. No one wants any of this nonsense.

Besides - who wants to mess with stealth technology. US aircraft is so far advanced. Never mind the the B-2 Bomber, the F22 raptors are unmatched. China makes a lot of junk, including military wise.

[Cnut237]

The US has 11 carriers (9 to 11 full strike groups), China has 2 with a 3rd supposed to be out next year maybe. Near as I can tell, China has roughly 1,580 fighter type aircraft. The US has 2,210 NOT including the carrier planes. So on paper, the US has superiority.

But then China has a bigger army. I think the main thing the numbers tell us are that neither country can simply obliterate the other (excepting the mutually-assured nuclear option). It is difficult to determine who would "win" in a physical war. Inverted commas because obviously any victory would be pyrrhic.

history has shown that when the country at the top starts to feel threatened by an up and comer, they go to war. Unless something major happens to derail that, it's inevitable. Or we can hope they do it economically instead.

The big wars of history occurred in a different economic and technological climate. War between developed nations is now largely (entirely?) economic. Globalisation has its problems, but one thing it has done is to ensure that the economies of rich countries are so intertwined as to be inextricable. The US and China can't attack each other without damaging themselves hugely. So yes, I'm sure that any conflict will be economic rather than physical, but even then there are limits to what each country will do as they would still suffer huge economic damage (which would quickly become global). Much of it I'm sure is just macho posturing. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the USA has become used to being the only major player on the world stage. China has risen to superpower status now, and these two will have to learn to share that stage.

[BADecker]

The real reason for the up and coming conflict is, Who is going to control Walmart?

What? What does Walmart have to do with this? Everything!

Walmart is the largest supply chain in the world... that has stores on the ground.

Walmart's base is located in the USA.

Walmart receives most of their products from China.

Walmart will become the distribution center for the Covid vaccine when it comes out. WHO wants to control WM from China. The US won't allow this. We're going to war over Walmart.

[Chrystora123]

if this happens billions of people will be injured (Chinese citizens)

~snip~
Also US have to remember, that a lot of south Asian countries will support China if there is a war. Because China has invested billions of dollars into their economy. So they are somewhat bound to offer help to China in case a war happens. It's easier said than done!  

South Asia... huh?

Pakistan - Client state , all they can do is leverage this situation by attacking in Kashmir, then fail miserably one more time.

India - Delhi kinda advocating or still dreaming about NAM's policy in some extent which is irrelevant in recent time as they are key player in the Indo-pacific and part of the QUAD. so please take a Hint.

Sri lanka- Colombo is fed up with debt trap.

Bangladesh- Dhaka, not interested

Maldives- Seriously?

Nepal- Not expecting anything from Kathmandu, except some chirping from their communist party

Bhutan- Big No

Afganistan - Hell no..

Please enlighten me, I might be missing something here.

maybe what is meant is Southeast Asia