Another critical analysis

[Lasky366]

Welcome to my Another Bitcoin price analysis.

Let's take a look at Bitcoin's ( BTCUSD ) peak prices since ATH in December 2017.

First, we have Bitcoin's All-Time High ( ATH ) sitting at $19891.99.

A higher low hit in June 2019 at $13868.44.

Then we have a recent peak in February 2020 at $10522.51.

On the 30th of April, another peak was hit at $9478.66.

We are looking at lower highs.
We have no higher highs.

Bitcoin is likely to drop .

Note: Another jump can happen and the chart can easily change.
If the major purple trendline is broken then Bitcoin can do more up.

[jackg]

Yeah it's a classic tightening range, lower highs and higher lows... With bitcoin this looks to often break to the downside but there's a lot of space left in the graph and that pattern looks a bit different on different timings but I'll say the sentiment that caused the initial large spike may have left by now...

Although financial markets are also less stable now and there may be some still worries that US stocks have their trading closed (a decision probably more likely to occur on the weekend as prices fell Friday which I anticipate to recover on the main markets)..

[sana54210]

First, we have Bitcoin's All-Time High ( ATH ) sitting at $19891.99.

A higher low hit in June 2019 at $13868.44.

Then we have a recent peak in February 2020 at $10522.51.

On the 30th of April, another peak was hit at $9478.66.

We are looking at lower highs.
We have no higher highs.

Bitcoin is likely to drop .

What about studying the lowers since the current ATH? I mean the exact reversal of what you have brought up today.

After the ATH, market fell down to its lowest by November 2018 (at the times of BSV launching) and then another lower was recorded by the time of covid outbreak. Among these two, bitcoin made a higher low than its previous fall which must be a good sign for assuming market may likely to stay stronger.

By combining higher low and lower high, we can assume bitcoin market is going to sustain around its median which is an usual signal before another stronger rally. Because, sustaining do happen before getting ready for stronger bulls mode. By considering the upcoming halving and its consequence of FOMO, market is exactly doing as per our expectations. Get ready for experiencing at least $380k levels before end of 2021.

[electronicash]

weekly charts looks very different. but i like watching the weekly because it gives us the whole picture of what is going on.

though we have the series of lower highs, your RSI indicates that its going to climb. don't you think it may just keep the seesaw in this level and will finally break that 10,500 (feb11,2020) resistance?

[tabas]

Great analysis. This is different from what I've used to read and study. It's reasonable to understand what Lasky has analyzed but I guess things will change due to one big factor for bitcoin.
Yes, and that will happen assumingly within 8 days from now.

[crwth]

I did have a lot of considerations with what the next move of Bitcoin could be, and this analysis is an excellent showcase of fundamentals that some traders forget. I remember when I just started trading, and the basic stuff is always about HH, HL, LH, and LL. It's still with that, and this seems to be spot on.

Another analysis that I admire is the one about the halving. Every after halving, the price rises, and I think that could be another consideration. Who knows what the next price would be, as long as we make the right positions, right?

[hatshepsut93]

We are looking at lower highs.
We have no higher highs.

You're ignoring the fact that we have higher lows, and that their growth is far bigger than the decrease of highs. The ATH was $20,000 and the next highs were $14,000 and $10,000, so overall it's a 50% decrease. But the low after the ATH was $3,000, after that it was $6,500, then it briefly touched $3,800 but I wouldn't count a flash crash, so it was more like $5,300. It's clear that the support grows faster than the resistance, and combined with halvening it's way more likely that the key resistance will be broken.

[hugeblack]

In addition, you ignored the rapid bounce that occurs to the price whenever it falls below a certain level. We are back at levels below $ 3,000 and bounced back to about $ 9000 in a short time.
Note that the price took more than 7 years to reach the top (ATH,) but it only lasted for several seconds, so we cannot consider it a reference value.

We make up for losses at rapid levels and since we broke the $ 2,000 barrier, we have not reversed it.

[ReiMomo]

Pretty normal for the price drop we can't really anticipate what will happen after every minute. Sudden changes on the price really happen for everyone is preparing since halving is really near, people buy or sell their bitcoins some hold it for the meantime and these are the factor why we are seeing these changes but rest assure it will not go down to $7000 since every investor started to minimize their actions to get ready for the halving. Anyway, after halving I am pretty sure that the price will shoot up again so, for now, it will be better for me not to make any movements on my bitcoins. My advice is dont look at the chart every single day to avoid worries.

[davis196]

The 2017 ATH was a giant FOMO bubble that might never repeat.Too many factors were pumping the price back then-BTC Hardforks,Bitcoin futures trading launch,the overall optimism of the crypto users...
The 2019 price peaks were caused by completely different factors than the 2017 peak.I think that mostly the crypto whales were manipulating the market.
I can agree that the 2017 ATH might never be reached again.However,I don't agree that Bitcoin is going to a downward spiral with "low highs".We might be heading towards a more stable BTC price with less fluctuations.

[pooya87]

both your highs and lows are wrong and you are also ignoring a lot of other factors that have been affecting the market.
for starters the initial high you chose (near $20k) is wrong because it was an unnatural price and should not be used in any meaningful analysis not to mention that it happened ~3 years ago. when you use that you are also ignoring the gigantic and long bubble burst and market correction and refer to it as a downtrend. so your conclusion is also wrong.

[bitgolden]

There is no "lower highs" when you look at the previous highs, I mean think about it, that 14k was last year and ever since that we had a lot of ups and downs as well in between. Just because the peak that year is lower than the previous year doesn't mean that it will not go up again.

Look at 2018 for example, we didn't really do well at all that year, in 2019 we did a lot better compared to 2018, and right now 2020 is doing very good considering the fact that we are in a pandemic. Before all of this we peaked at 10k and then the whole world stayed at home and even with that we peaked at 9.4k which tells you what we could have been if there wasn't an economical crisis going on. And 2020 is not even over yet, after halving we could break that 14k easily.

[Baofeng]

We are looking at lower highs.
We have no higher highs.

You're ignoring the fact that we have higher lows, and that their growth is far bigger than the decrease of highs. The ATH was $20,000 and the next highs were $14,000 and $10,000, so overall it's a 50% decrease. But the low after the ATH was $3,000, after that it was $6,500, then it briefly touched $3,800 but I wouldn't count a flash crash, so it was more like $5,300. It's clear that the support grows faster than the resistance, and combined with halvening it's way more likely that the key resistance will be broken.

Exactly, I was looking for the LL because it is another price that can also tell us where the price will go. After reaching all-time-high in 2017, we have reach LL at around $3200, November-December of 2018. So that is a significant figure assuming that the last LL prior to 2016 halving is $660, and then we go on a bullish run in 2017 pushing to almost $20k.

[dragon695]

Bitcoin has grown quite strongly in recent days. Today its price has exceeded $ 10,000 and now it is time for it to be revised back to $ 9k5 before it pumps up yet again. Now I just hope the epidemic is under control in European countries, when bitcoin halving really makes a difference.

[penetrak]

The price is now on the rise and I think it will still move upwards. The key factor is certainly a close reduction in the reward for a new block of bitcoin. After reducing the reward, the price may go down, but I do not think that it will fall significantly.

[suvo05]

The price is now on the rise and I think it will still move upwards. The key factor is certainly a close reduction in the reward for a new block of bitcoin. After reducing the reward, the price may go down, but I do not think that it will fall significantly.

But history tells us the opposite, as reward reduced to half the total new supply per year also reduced to half, so the demand corresponding to supply rises.   The last two halvings had that story. Let us see what happens this time.

[gantez]

The price is now on the rise and I think it will still move upwards. The key factor is certainly a close reduction in the reward for a new block of bitcoin. After reducing the reward, the price may go down, but I do not think that it will fall significantly.

Your analysis is fine too . When the reward for the new block come, it is expected to have a slight drop in price. The price can fall afterwards but it may not stay long because more investors will come in to buy more and the price can start appreciating again.