One block left until final difficulty change before reward halving

[keystroke]

Looks like we'll be getting an increase of about 0.88%. Miner capitulation has already happened. This is it!


Edit:
Previous difficulty: 15958652328578.42
Current difficulty: 16104807485529.38

Increase was approximately 0.92%

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[adaseb]

Yes the difficulty went up fast because the price quickly reversed. So basically the miners that shut down they started their rigs back up again, no surprise there.

And it will be interested what will happen after the halving. So basically its 6.5 days away and the difficulty retarget is 14 days, so if half the miners leave the network in about 7 days, it means that it will take another 7 days for the difficult to retarget down. So this retarget we might be in for up to 3 weeks or so. So hopefully you get all your transactions done and sent because the fees won't be pretty for the next 3-6 weeks or so, unless the price increases.

[exstasie]

And it will be interested what will happen after the halving. So basically its 6.5 days away and the difficulty retarget is 14 days, so if half the miners leave the network in about 7 days, it means that it will take another 7 days for the difficult to retarget down. So this retarget we might be in for up to 3 weeks or so. So hopefully you get all your transactions done and sent because the fees won't be pretty for the next 3-6 weeks or so, unless the price increases.

People expected a crash of the hash rate like that in 2016 but it never happened. The price actually crashed over 30% shortly after the halving and the hash rate still stayed stable the whole time.

I think there is a big misconception about what the "average cost" to mine a BTC actually means to the industry. A strong majority will still be profitable at these prices (some of whom will add more hash power after the next adjustment) and some others are capitalized to ride out the market for a while on speculation. Just my opinion. I think it will be a non-event in terms of hash rate, not the massive drop some are expecting.

[keystroke]

I think difficulty will be greater for epoch 313 and 314. We are currently in 312.

It's remarkable how few difficulty drops there have been. A quick look at the diff charts show the biggest drops in 2011, 2018, 2019, and 2020.

I agree miners are generally well capitalized speculators. Miner selling has been trending down this year.

On-chain indicators such as CryptoQuant's "Total Miner Halving Capitulation Index" do not show unusual selling pressure among miners at this time.

[hugeblack]

The price hike last week was a tempting reason for many miners to try to seize the opportunity. I expected the difficulty to increase further, but it appears that the consequences of COVID19 remain.

The development of industry and the production of new generations will not pose a problem, either. Old mining tools can be sold in favor of altCoins.

[exstasie]

The price hike last week was a tempting reason for many miners to try to seize the opportunity. I expected the difficulty to increase further, but it appears that the consequences of COVID19 remain.

Rising price has significantly outpaced rising difficulty, which I think is indicative of the halving dynamics. Over the last 3 adjustments, price is up 35% but difficulty is only up 15%.

Lots of rigs aren't being turned back on despite the market recovery, probably because the halving is about to make them unprofitable.

[el kaka22]

There is a ton of new level machines coming up which I assume is the main reason why we got that increase, normally there are smaller miners who have under 50 machines that probably started to close off and many will close after the halving as well so the difficulty will drop, I do not see it going any higher after this one because not many people will be capable of making a profit from it.

However one thing is for sure, people will want to make the cent they could, even if its just a cent, even if its breaking even, people will try their best at whatever machines they have to mine. After the halving though, I do not see too many old machines making it work, there will be people who are closing down shop because of the halving, and even the big whales will need better machines for sure.

[buwaytress]

So, guesses as to how much difficulty will fall after halving? It's going to be half before half after, so probably every last ditch miner's already in the game now, and they'll switch off as soon as we get the last 12.5 bitcoin reward.

Some news I read somewhere says it's monsoon now so power's plentiful where it's hydro in Asia so that'll actually help make up for some, so maybe the slide happens a few more adjustments down the line?

[Harlot]

I'm pretty confident that nothing bad will happen in the upcoming halving even if there is an increase in difficulty. Like what el kaka22 has said there will be newer rigs to be use in mining, this rigs are of course will be more efficient in terms of electricity consumption as well as hashrate power. Other than that miners can also use renewable energy to further cut down their cost which have been done already. The real question here really is if it will still be profitable for small miners to mine now especially when the rewards will be cut down in half.

[exstasie]

So, guesses as to how much difficulty will fall after halving? It's going to be half before half after, so probably every last ditch miner's already in the game now, and they'll switch off as soon as we get the last 12.5 bitcoin reward.

Some news I read somewhere says it's monsoon now so power's plentiful where it's hydro in Asia so that'll actually help make up for some, so maybe the slide happens a few more adjustments down the line?

This is my opinion on that:

People expected a crash of the hash rate like that in 2016 but it never happened. The price actually crashed over 30% shortly after the halving and the hash rate still stayed stable the whole time.

I think there is a big misconception about what the "average cost" to mine a BTC actually means to the industry. A strong majority will still be profitable at these prices (some of whom will add more hash power after the next adjustment) and some others are capitalized to ride out the market for a while on speculation. Just my opinion. I think it will be a non-event in terms of hash rate, not the massive drop some are expecting.

Price has risen much more than difficulty in the past few weeks, which tells me weaker miners are already shutting down. All in all, I expect it to be a wash, with no major crash in the hash rate and maybe even a modest increase, depending on what the market does.

[keystroke]

Looks like in three and a half days we will be getting a 1.6% drop. Not bad. Sure, maybe miners were on a last ditch effort before the halving to run the last of their old hardware and are now switching off. That's what I did with GPUs when ASICs were coming online. Happens during every change in the system.

[adaseb]

There was variance a few days ago and it looked like we might get a -15% drop and led to high bitcoin fees. However looking at,
https://fork.lol/pow/retarget

It looks like we are back on due track, seems like the difficult retarget will be nil. Which is surprising since half the profits are pretty much done for BTC miners. Shows you how many of these miners are professional farms which have tons of capital and most likely are holding these bitcoins for the future instead of selling them at the market. This is more or less what happened in 2016 after the halving, the hashrate stalled for a while and then it kept reading new highs and went exponentially upwards. So in a few months we should see the same thing after this halving.

[keystroke]

I think we will get a little drop at the next adjustment but it will trend upwards after that.

https://diff.cryptothis.com/