Sudden fall in bitcoin price after successful halving, Post-halving prediction.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

Am I the only one thinking bitcoin will experience some price (probably massive) corrections after the halving hype dies down. Like they say, buy the rumors, sell the news, brace yourself guys because that's exactly what's coming. The new inflow of inexperience investor hoping to benefit from the halving hype are likely going to panic when the corrections comes, resulting to the price dumping harder. Currently, everyone is getting carried away by what will the pre-halving new (ATH) price of bitcoin be and not much concerned about what'll the support level of that new price be, to prevent it from dumping hard when the corrections comes.

What are your price prediction or are you sticking with been optimistic of a continuous upwards price movement? Let's get discussing...

[jackg]

$6k or $5k would be a reasonable estimate for me at this point (although more of a guess)...

We saw a correction last time and were very close to the halving now (currently 4 days away)... The traditional markets also saw a growth back to where they were at the start of 2020, I don't think we would fall too hard (have a rapid crash) until they do. A pleateuing crash remains on the cards though...

[cafetools]

No way, Bitcoin is more bullish than ever! All over the news people telling others to invest! Google searches at all time high for the word "Bitcoin". With this crazy pandemic people are hedging thier bets with BTC.

[pooya87]

historically speaking price has always fallen right before halving and after it things don't change at all. in fact the day of the halving and nearly a week after it is usually the accumulation phase. i don't see why this has to change now.

but there is one additional factor to consider now compared to other 2 halvings. previously we had a big rise then a correction of that mini bubble but now we not only don't have the big rise we are not even near having any kind of bubbles to want to burst and correct. before halving price was about $11k then Corona drama hit and price dropped unrealistically then it recovered. it still hasn't seen the rise to go back to pre-Corona-drama time.

[stompix]

it still hasn't seen the rise to go back to pre-Corona-drama time.

I think that first, we must get over the Corona drama and this will take a while.
Yeah, the sentiment is bullish around the forum, but here is like preaching to the choir, who wanted to buy has already bought, there is no huge amount of $ that's going to come from bitcoiners to propel the price, you need flow from new "investors" (I hate this term) and I doubt it's the right time to wait for them.

As for the prediction, although I usually suck at anticipating things, I think we normally should see a small bubble forming now that will continue to grow a bit after the halving and then slowly deflating and the price returning to the 8-10k area as all are going to realize nothing magical has happen or will happen and this will continue for a few months unless we have some serious changes and some really good or bad news, and I'm talking about decisions at government levels. But, I'm more times wrong than right so...expect the opposite. 

[The Cryptovator]

No you aren't the one, I am also thinking same thing that bitcoin price could sudden dump after the halving occasion. I believe most of holders wondering same thing and that's would lead for a massive dump. Instead of know the real reason of bitcoin halving peoples are more curious about price and that's how current bitcoin market experiencing a FOMO. There is huge possibility of price dump due to FUD. All holders will likely attempt to sell in order to take advantage from halving FOMO.

However, I believe we might see a dump upto $4K zone, I mean most likely below $5K. But not expecting below $4K. And regarding before halving price, it would be probably upto $10K zone below $11K, but who know. Let's wait for the halving.

[pooya87]

who wanted to buy has already bought,

maybe; but if i had to bet i'd bet that not the number of those who have bought what they wanted to buy already is not that big. the Corona drama is still there and that's not all, there is a ton of fear accompanying that drama. there are a lot who are either scared to buy now or are wishful enough thinking there is better (lower) price coming and want to  buy there.
the "new investors" are also in the same group. usually when they want to enter a market and see the media is scaring them off, they prefer waiting for a rise to start rather than entering. at least for a major resistance to be broken first.

[hatshepsut93]

I'm sure you're not the only one, something like that happened during the last halving, so it's natural that some people will expect the same to happen now. Plus Bitcoin was having a lot of ups and downs lately, so it's quite likely that there will be another big drop after a big rise. But I'm not 100% sure about that, if Bitcoin will manage to break the $10-11,000 resistance it can reach higher prices, so the eventual correction will bring us to something that we have right now or even higher.

[bitbunnny]

I'm sure you're not the only one, something like that happened during the last halving, so it's natural that some people will expect the same to happen now. Plus Bitcoin was having a lot of ups and downs lately, so it's quite likely that there will be another big drop after a big rise. But I'm not 100% sure about that, if Bitcoin will manage to break the $10-11,000 resistance it can reach higher prices, so the eventual correction will bring us to something that we have right now or even higher.

People are trying to make predictions according to past experiences. This is natural, however I'm not sure if this can help. It's very hard to tell how Bitcoin price will look like after halving and if behaviour will be the same as last time
Also, I think that Bitcoin will hard break 10000$ resistance, no matter the current price rise which doesn't actually need to long lasting. Personaly, I will wait for halving without too big expectations.

[buwaytress]

Am I the only one thinking bitcoin will experience some price (probably massive) corrections after the halving hype dies down. Like they say, buy the rumors, sell the news, brace yourself guys because that's exactly what's coming. The new inflow of inexperience investor hoping to benefit from the halving hype are likely going to panic when the corrections comes, resulting to the price dumping harder. Currently, everyone is getting carried away by what will the pre-halving new (ATH) price of bitcoin be and not much concerned about what'll the support level of that new price be, to prevent it from dumping hard when the corrections comes.

What are your price prediction or are you sticking with been optimistic of a continuous upwards price movement? Let's get discussing...

I've read at least two news analysis of the opinions of popular influencers (goddamn me for using that term), who already have said this for a while. Can't remember the other guy but the first (Vays) actually called the top at 9k and said he sold to buy the dip at was it at least 7.5k?

He's already wrong though, judging from two consecutive days now of higher highs but I don't think he's wrong that there's going to be a dip.

The regular economy has yet to reveal the true extent of this depression. When it does, Bitcoin's not going to be immune.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

But I'm not 100% sure about that, if Bitcoin will manage to break the $10-11,000 resistance it can reach higher prices, so the eventual correction will bring us to something that we have right now or even higher.

No issue that's why it's called speculation, none of us are always 100% sure. The greedy investors side in me don't what to see this happen as I'll always want to keep making profit but that can't just be the case. There's no denying that the halving FOMO brought in many new Investors that their emotions haven't been tested yet which is likely going to happen soon and without any doubt they'll fall victim to FUD.

I'm still optimistic about the pre-halving price of bitcoin irrespective of the supposed slow moving I think it peak within the price range of $11k - $12k and the post-halving price will take it down within $6k - $7k.

[buwaytress]

No issue that's why it's called speculation, none of us are always 100% sure. The greedy investors side in me don't what to see this happen as I'll always want to keep making profit but that can't just be the case. There's no denying that the halving FOMO brought in many new Investors that their emotions haven't been tested yet which is likely going to happen soon and without any doubt they'll fall victim to FUD.

I'm still optimistic about the pre-halving price of bitcoin irrespective of the supposed slow moving I think it peak within the price range of $11k - $12k and the post-halving price will take it down within $6k - $7k.

I can only be 100% sure that price will NOT be exactly the same every 24 hours, at least not on every exchange, which is what I used to tell people who would coax me to go into forex trading about 15 years ago!

The problem isn't recognising the facts, I guess, we all do. The problem is accepting that we are just as prone as others, if not probably even more so to not having the discipline to stay on the right side of logic when trading. I think the other problem is, being experienced in TA and trading tends to give you confidence in what you're doing.

But on point again, 12k right after halving seems a given at the rate we've been going now. 50% pullback also seems about right.

[Slow death]

Am I the only one thinking bitcoin will experience some price (probably massive) corrections after the halving hype dies down.

the price will definitely drop, we have seen this kind of thing happen recently (if I'm not mistaken it was a few months ago) there was halving at LTC where the price started to increase a lot and after halving the price started to fall a lot. In the case of bitcoin it is easier to see that it will fall, why do I say that? when the price of bitcoin starts to rise a lot and the price of altcoins in relation to bitcoin starts to fall a lot it means that people are selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin, it is not bringing in fresh money to make the bitcoin price rise a lot and when the people who sold their altcoins realize that fresh money isn’t coming in to make the bitcoin price go up so much they’re going to sell their bitcoin and they’re going to buy altcoins again and the bitcoin price goes down again

Like they say, buy the rumors, sell the news, brace yourself guys because that's exactly what's coming.

pump and dump is a big cancer for the cryptocurrency market

The new inflow of inexperience investor hoping to benefit from the halving hype are likely going to panic when the corrections comes, resulting to the price dumping harder.

I think that such inexperienced investors have not invested a lot of money, people who invest a lot of money (whales) already bought when the price was low and will evict when they think the price is high and as a result the price of bitcoin will fall a lot . In the past I did not believe in the existence of whales and that disgusting scheme that they do, but in the past few months I’m starting to believe in the existence of whales and that scheme that they do

Currently, everyone is getting carried away by what will the pre-halving new (ATH) price of bitcoin be and not much concerned about what'll the support level of that new price be, to prevent it from dumping hard when the corrections comes.

we won't see ATH anytime soon

What are your price prediction or are you sticking with been optimistic of a continuous upwards price movement? Let's get discussing...

$13000 is the maximum that in my opinion can achieve this year

[exstasie]

The magnitude of any upcoming correction depends on how high the market goes first. If bears hold firm below $10,500 then the mid-$6,000s aren't off the table yet.

Based on historical monthly corrections, I wouldn't expect to crash much harder than 40% (if that) or hold below the 0.618 retracement level. From $12K, that puts the limit in the low $7,000s. That's the lowest I would expect; it could end up shallower.

One thing I know is this: right now it looks like BTC can't possibly go down, but things can change very quickly when a 40% correction comes, like the summers of 2016 and 2017. Bull market corrections can be very brutal in BTC.

But on point again, 12k right after halving seems a given at the rate we've been going now.

When 20% moves start feeling like a given, beware. That's how it feels near the top.

[Fundamentals Of]

My guess is that there will be a significant dumping at the $10,000. BTC has already hit $10,000 at Binance but it did not last long. It was very quickly pushed downward. The demand for Bitcoin at $10,000 must be looking insignificant as compared to the desire to sell. I will have to create a sell order at $10,000 myself, at least a portion. Because we are almost certain that $10,000 will cause a good bounce downward. 

[Savemore]

My guess is that there will be a significant dumping at the $10,000. BTC has already hit $10,000 at Binance but it did not last long. It was very quickly pushed downward. The demand for Bitcoin at $10,000 must be looking insignificant as compared to the desire to sell. I will have to create a sell order at $10,000 myself, at least a portion. Because we are almost certain that $10,000 will cause a good bounce downward. 

There will be another massive pullback that will happen for sure after the halving, even though that the price is looking bullish; we are still not seeing a major pullback and it is sign of bearishness. We should remember that the price moves like waves, we should not expect that the bitcoin will have strong capitulation after the halving because pullback is necessary. The hype can make us experience loss so we should take seriously especially doing analysis in order for us to understand the price action of the bitcoin.

[gentlemand]

I'm thinking it's pretty much in the bag.

Which means that's less likely?

There's a lot of strangeness going on in the world, Bitcoin has been bouncing along at dull price levels with the occasional moment of terror for what feels like forever. Maybe it'll remind us why we're here with some action no one is expecting.

[sunsilk]

historically speaking price has always fallen right before halving and after it things don't change at all.

This is true. I guess the expectation that we're all thinking about the price fall before the halving was already what we have seen on March. Remember the $4,900 scene that we're all disappointed? that could be the bottom and the pattern that we've seen with the past halving.

I'm optimistic with the price during the post-halving but not to the point that it will just continuously go up. There will be a correction after correction and that's basically the usual pattern that the history showed us.

[maydna]

Yes, I always think about if bitcoin price will have a corrections price after the halving finish. We need to prepare for that time because no one knows when that will happens. There will be many new investors that will come to the bitcoin world and invest their money because they read on many news that bitcoin will be so high at a price. But I hope that the new investor will learn from the past, and they don't have to panic if they see the correction price comes to the market.

I predict that after bitcoin reach some high price like today, the price will have a correction, but I don't know how much bitcoin price will get down. That will be our best time to buy bitcoin at a low price so prepare your money to buy bitcoin.

[davis196]

No way, Bitcoin is more bullish than ever! All over the news people telling others to invest! Google searches at all time high for the word "Bitcoin". With this crazy pandemic people are hedging thier bets with BTC.

Yeah,this is the perfect situation for a price bubble.Many newbies will jump of the buyers wagon because of FOMO and after a month or two,the statistics about the massive Q2 global GDP decrease will become publicly available,probably leading financial markets worldwide(stocks,fiat currencies and crypto) into a bearish mode.
I don't believe that the cryptocurrency markets can stay in a long term bullish trend,while there's a global recession/depression.This just doesn't make sense.The investors are looking for a salvation,which will cause a short term price bubble,followed by a price crash.