Bitcoin Market Update: The Halving is Here

[cryptoadvocate]

Price ran up to $10,000 only to dump quickly to $8,100. Filled bids on this drop and remain bullish but HTF market structure is cause for concern.

Full analysis here:

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/bitcoin-market-update-03-10-20

[AD Node]

Larry Cermak analysis shows that the number of new Twitter followers for major cryptocurrency identifiers like Binance and Coinbase has not increased. Without these increases, price increases apparently are not based on FOMO

[TravelMug]

Larry Cermak analysis shows that the number of new Twitter followers for major cryptocurrency identifiers like Binance and Coinbase has not increased. Without these increases, price increases apparently are not based on FOMO

Are you saying that twitter followers are a good indication of at least they have correlation on the price?

I would agree with the FOMO thingy, but I don't understand the twitter following logic here. Not all crypto enthusiast have twitter so it's not a good basis. What keeping the market today is the block halving. There could be some manipulation play from behind, and we need to wait till post-halving and see how the market will react.

[adaseb]

According to the charts, most of the moves lately have been driven by the spot markets and there is also lots of volume on the futures markets.

Many months back, whenever we got a huge move (+20% or so) the funding rate usually followed, it stays >0.01% for days. And with the move we had recently it stayed constant at 0.01. The futures even had no premium which is odd. What this means is that the market is being lead by the spot exchanges this time instead of the derivatives.

Also CME futures has a big premium, last time I checked it was 1% or so, which means there is huge demand in the institutional departments. This move that happened shouldn't be a surprise. Many were expecting a dump, however most expected the dump AFTER the halving and not before.

[kesmex]

Price ran up to $10,000 only to dump quickly to $8,100. Filled bids on this drop and remain bullish but HTF market structure is cause for concern.

Full analysis here:

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/bitcoin-market-update-03-10-20

if you invest in the long term then the decline in the price of Bitcoin is meaningless, because a Bitcoin investment is a future investment, 5 to 10 years, if you invest in 2010 then you can take it in 2017 or 2020, and if you invest in 2020 then 2025 or 2030 is the right time to take it

[batang_bitcoin]

It's still bullish. How much the price was before it reached $10,000 just a week or a month ago?
Look how versatile and quick the recovery bitcoin is showing lately. The price just goes back to $8918 and potentially if it won't be rejected to $9000 then it will be welcoming to surpass $10000.

[leyton11]

Price ran up to $10,000 only to dump quickly to $8,100. Filled bids on this drop and remain bullish but HTF market structure is cause for concern.

Full analysis here:

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/bitcoin-market-update-03-10-20

Yes, many have seen weekly candles showing signs of reversal and BTC dominance is quite high compared to the average of 64%. so there will soon be a strong correction from the whales as the halving event will always make bitcoin plummet. We should hold USDT and set the price that we accept to buy and should hold it for 8 - 12 months. Surely we will have a great profit after a long holding period and the growth history of BTC also supports that.

[buwaytress]

Well, so far the futures gap theory is panning out as well as it could have been, so it's going to be hard to credit the halving for anything that's happening right now, just too many converging events to separate the threads of effect.

A bit of the yawnfest we all knew to expect, though, no?

[Fundamentals Of]

Larry Cermak analysis shows that the number of new Twitter followers for major cryptocurrency identifiers like Binance and Coinbase has not increased. Without these increases, price increases apparently are not based on FOMO

If we can consider this as a significant indicator and points us to the reality that any price increase that will follow the halving is not due to FOMO, that is good enough. The desired market buying should not be based on FOMO but on something a lot more profound or reasonable. FOMO is too shallow and does not hold long. But then again, if such a social media stats could be considered as an indicator.

[justdimin]

Honestly I never really believed that anything major would happen anyway. I told everyone that the halving itself is not really a big thing at the moment it happens. This is a long term thing, think about your own nation for example, if you keep printing money all the time you are going to end up like Zimbabwe right?

Because you are basically not going to be able to back it up like some big nations could. However if you stop printing money, or at least cut it in half, your money will be more valuable right? That is the thing here, we are not suddenly doing better or worse, but we are going to have a change in the future when it will get started to feel like something more real. Think about it, only in 10 days we are talking about 9k bitcoin less mined.

[exstasie]

Well, so far the futures gap theory is panning out as well as it could have been, so it's going to be hard to credit the halving for anything that's happening right now, just too many converging events to separate the threads of effect.

What futures gap theory?

I like to think in terms of market narratives. What just happened: the bullish narrative and the bullish price action both died at the same time. That can have a powerful psychological effect, which is why the halving is a very convenient catalyst for a bearish reversal, same as 2016. Rallying into the halving set up a natural "buy the rumor, sell the news" situation.

Whether this turns into a multi-month bearish correction like summer 2016 is not decided yet, but there are some early signs that $10K was a significant mid-term top: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54406681#msg54406681

[buwaytress]

What futures gap theory?

I like to think in terms of market narratives. What just happened: the bullish narrative and the bullish price action both died at the same time. That can have a powerful psychological effect, which is why the halving is a very convenient catalyst for a bearish reversal, same as 2016. Rallying into the halving set up a natural "buy the rumor, sell the news" situation.

Whether this turns into a multi-month bearish correction like summer 2016 is not decided yet, but there are some early signs that $10K was a significant mid-term top: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54406681#msg54406681

That the opening price of Bitcoin futures on Monday tries to meet the closing price of them on Friday, and in this case it was from 8300 on Monday open trying to "fill the gap" when it closed on Friday around 10,000 or something like that on CME.

I'm prepared for the multi month bearish correction, and yes it's halving done and dusted but we have yet to see the second wave of economic slowdown effects.

[The Cryptovator]

Its seems to me you are trying to promote your articles by posting regarding halving. Anyway I have realized my expectation regarding halving become true. I was expect bitcoin price grow around $10K zone but probably would below $11K which become true. But expectation after the halving regarding sudden dump become false by the way. Current bitcoin price trend showing positive, I am not sure if it has been manipulating by whales or it's just a natural growth. But I believe there would be huge correction since global economy still collapsing.

[royalfestus]

The price had been holding strong towards $9k since the halving, Some called it a bulltrap cause dipper dump had been expect but anything can still happen. I will wait for 50 days after the halving to take any decision on bitcoin, most especially to purchase more either the price is going up or going down. Obviously the market trend is different with the pandemic and might demand a different approach.

[el kaka22]

Just because of twitter follower changes staying the same doesn't mean there is no FOMO going on, there has been FOMO with the people we already have for a long time now. People have been waiting on the halving and do you really think that there are people outside of crypto who know about halving but haven't followed anything so far. Anyone who knows about the halving and was excited about it has already either followed those accounts or decided not to (I am not for example, and won't).

So long story short there is really nothing to worry about, FOMO could always happen with the people we have right now and that is enough for us, there is no need to think about what new people could bring it, there is enough of us here that we can make a change all by ourselves.

[adaseb]

Bitcoin should consider buying right now before the next halving event. Theoretically, you should purchase new bitcoin now since the number of new Bitcoins put in circulation every day will be cut in half as the halving in crypto market. The market price will be incrase bitcoin price could occur due to the upcoming halving event. just wait for few years bitcoin is likely to explode in the coming months. In my opinion, the price of Bitcoin will reach $20K by the end of 2020 years.

Haven't you heard? The halving happened over a week ago pretty much. And buying bitcoin into the halving event wouldn't of done you any good because right prior there was a huge dump to the $8K area, basically too many leveraged people opened up a position hoping for a pump into halving but the reverse happened.

And just because the supply is halved doesn't mean it will increase in price. Sure its basic economics but usually events like this are retail driven and there are huge whale games. So it might play out but it could take longer than a few days, maybe even until the end of 2020 or 2021. Too many people basically think they can outsmart the market and they usually end up getting liquidated. Hence why it dumped so fast to $8100 because too many people entered only when it broke $10K.

[exstasie]

And buying bitcoin into the halving event wouldn't of done you any good because right prior there was a huge dump to the $8K area, basically too many leveraged people opened up a position hoping for a pump into halving but the reverse happened.

Interesting fact: Bitmex perpetual swap funding rates never went above 0.01% during the April/May rally. Until yesterday that is, when they hit 0.0306%. Predicted rate is at 0.0202%.

https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/usd/bitmex/funding-rate-chart/btcusd_perp_fr/
https://www.bitmex.com/app/contract/XBTUSD

Bitfinex longs are quickly shooting back up as well:



Lots of people are planning for a break of $10.5K. Let's see if they're right.

[DoublerHunter]

Price ran up to $10,000 only to dump quickly to $8,100. Filled bids on this drop and remain bullish but HTF market structure is cause for concern.

Full analysis here:

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/bitcoin-market-update-03-10-20

^ Probably we may consider it bullish because of the fast recovery from the recent halving compared to the previous halving. But the cause of the bullish came from the whales since they are able to buy a bulk of bitcoins that leads to the fast recovery on the price. It is still early to know the true effect of halving whether it is going to be a bull run or it will crash the market but none of this can be a reality unless we have already come to that point and experience the true effect of the halving. No one really knows what will happen.

[Gozie51]

I see for my view that price is getting some consolidation for a major bull. The price after halving has been okay around and above the $10,000 area. The next major move might come after the end of the month because some lockdown could be eased up .

[Jating]

I see for my view that price is getting some consolidation for a major bull. The price after halving has been okay around and above the $10,000 area. The next major move might come after the end of the month because some lockdown could be eased up .

What's the correlation between lockdown easing up and the price pushing to 5 digits?

As we can see, it has rejected multiple times already, and we have noticed some minor pullback to $9k-$9100. So regardless if there is an easing up at the end of the month, it won't affect the price at all. Everything is still based on people's sentiments. And right now, it's sell-off because of the 50 BTC that has moved and others speculating that it is Satoshi himself (but majority doubt it), causing some fear amongst crypto investors, resulting on a pullback in the last 48 hours.