Is it possible that number of miners will decrease for a while?

[Pffrt]

With the recent halving of block rewards, the incentive will be lower than previous for miner. On the other hand, the cost for them will still be same which may not be profitable for a while (I'm not sure about this). If it is true, is it possible that some miners will just leave mining for a while until they get back in a equilibrium or in profit? What fo you think?

[mk4]

Oh it's definitely possible, probably until the price goes high enough for bitcoin to be worth mining again. Especially for the small-time miners who has significantly slimmer profit margins compared to the big-time miners. In fact, this is what I assume will happen as it's the most likely one in my opinion. I don't think it's likely for bitcoin to rise in price in the short term.

[Yourhomeboy]

The reward given to miners will be divided into two that is, Miners used to get rewarded with 12.5 BTC but this time it will be 6.3 BTC so the benefit is low and can discourage some low-level miners that are just new to the business and can't make enough profit out of it. Because of the electricity consumed and the number of mining hardware in their possession. It is sure to know that the people that have been mining consistently will know how to do their plus and minus. This is the third time miners reward is being divided. So people that know the business will still be available while those who are new may not be familiar and leave. Just know that some miners will drop.

[avikz]

With the recent halving of block rewards, the incentive will be lower than previous for miner. On the other hand, the cost for them will still be same which may not be profitable for a while (I'm not sure about this). If it is true, is it possible that some miners will just leave mining for a while until they get back in a equilibrium or in profit? What fo you think?

There is high possibility of it happening. Mining is a costly business to start and it also needs a good amount of recurring cost to maintain. So if bitcoin price isn't increasing now, a lot of small miners will be forced to leave mining because it will be cheaper for them to buy bitcoins from the market instead of mining it.

However, we haven't seen any signs of it. Let's keep a close watch on the situation. It seems bitcoin won't disappoint the miners.

[wingfield_crypto]

     It depends on each miner. Basically, the amount of Bitcoin mined will be halved in the same period of time. For some it can still be cost effective, with professional equipment and confidence in the potential of BTC. Others will give up. But I think most will not give up because they knew when they bought their mining equipment that BTC will be reduced by half every 4 years. Bitcoin remains a goldmine for crypto enthusiasts.

[XCANA]

It will be a choice of these miners either to stop or carry-on after the bitcoin halving. Candidly speaking, those with a minimal profits would like to stop their operations due to their take home packages compared to the early days of mining Bitcoin. I would advance these miners to always put first the interest of Bitcoin than just aiming at the profits with passion. Also remember that, the value of Bitcoin will now move above the former and will now be profitable than before as time goes.

[The Cryptovator]

There is possibilty, if bitcoin price still go down even after the halving event then few miners would leave mining especially those are small miners. Because their production cost will not reduce, so since mining reward will be half their profits will lower than before halving. But if they expect not to sell their reward and wait for high price then likely they would continue mining and hold rewards. The problem is some countries electricity bill is quite high so they would forced to leave if there is not enough profits. However, we might see the results within couple of days. 

[hatshepsut93]

Ofc it will decrease, but the question is by how much. I personally don't believe it will be anything significant, we had a ton of hashpower when the price was at $3,000 level and it kept growing. Perhaps the price was growing faster than the ASICS were manufactured, so the mining was never fully saturated, and halving won't cut miners in half too.

[fiulpro]

See what is important is not the number of miners but the efficiency of mining . The small miners do account for a 15-30% of the hash rate and therefore when the halving happens , they will for sure decrease for a while and therefore for a little while we will see 15-30% decrease in the hash rate making the network more vulnerable for a while.
The small miners won't be able to pay the huge electricity bills for the machine since the block reward would be literally cut in half .
Plus Miners won't actually influence the price , so people who are writing how it will decrease the price I do not think it is true , the price will be same and the only problem we will face is in the hash rate which will quickly go up since the the huge miners would be able to back it up pretty quickly . It's like more job opportunities for them .

[squatter]

Oh it's definitely possible, probably until the price goes high enough for bitcoin to be worth mining again.

The price is already high enough for bitcoins to be worth mining. It's just a matter of which mining operations we're talking about.

The number of miners will probably decrease, but the hash rate -- that's less of a sure thing, and didn't happen in 2016.

Inefficient miners will shut down, but efficient miners may actually be adding hash rate. Until the next difficulty adjustment comes, I don't want to make any big assumptions.

[kemoglo]

Oh it's definitely possible, probably until the price goes high enough for bitcoin to be worth mining again.

The price is already high enough for bitcoins to be worth mining. It's just a matter of which mining operations we're talking about.

The number of miners will probably decrease, but the hash rate -- that's less of a sure thing, and didn't happen in 2016.

Inefficient miners will shut down, but efficient miners may actually be adding hash rate. Until the next difficulty adjustment comes, I don't want to make any big assumptions.

Sorry, can you explain to a layman when the difficulty adjustments happen? I've always thought it's automatic, but can you tell me if it is?

[ballerin and giroud]

I was worried about that, I see an article before the halving event happeened who stated that the miner will be profitable if bitcoin price has a price around $10.000 when halving event has happened. So I just thinking that in this situation there will be some miner who leave their mining rig until the price of bitcoin back to high. They are an important part in bitcoin ecosystem because they have a function to validate every transaction but they will thinking to pay each cost if they turn on the mining rig to start mining bitcoin. Hopefully bitcoin price will increase again and reach new all time high.

[mk4]

Sorry, can you explain to a layman when the difficulty adjustments happen? I've always thought it's automatic, but can you tell me if it is?

I assume you guys specifically referring to the block halving as the difficulty adjusts frequently[1], but yes, it is automatic and it already happened just hours ago. It happens after every 210,000 blocks(which is approximately every 4 years).

[1] https://btc.com/stats/diff

[24Kt]

I was worried about that, I see an article before the halving event happeened who stated that the miner will be profitable if bitcoin price has a price around $10.000 when halving event has happened. So I just thinking that in this situation there will be some miner who leave their mining rig until the price of bitcoin back to high. They are an important part in bitcoin ecosystem because they have a function to validate every transaction but they will thinking to pay each cost if they turn on the mining rig to start mining bitcoin. Hopefully bitcoin price will increase again and reach new all time high.

There's possibility that there are miners who will stop for a while because of the btc price not showing any good movement. I was thinking that the price will at least reach the 10k level but seems that the market is not responding with this halving. Let's wait for maybe another couple of weeks, and see the aftermath, whether it will change or not.

[Rengga Jati]

Isn't the number of Bitcoin miners already going down since the bear market? Or is it rising now?
At a time when the price of BTC was already very low, while mining operational costs jumped high, many miners then took a break and chose not to continue mining again. This is done because the outcome is bigger than the income.

With the recent halving of block rewards, the incentive will be lower than previous for miner.

And after halving later, the amount of BTC that can be filtered will decrease. And there is a possibility that if it is operational normally it will rise again. If the number of coins mined decreases, the price of BTC goes down, while operational costs go up, then what is likely to happen is a reduction in the number of miners.

See. most members in this thread also consider that there will be a decrease amount of the miners after the halving. Personally I also think yes, it will decrease.  However, who knows? Crypto is sometimes full of surprise and we do not know what kind of surprise we will face in the later moment.

[Sadlife]

With the recent halving of block rewards, the incentive will be lower than previous for miner. On the other hand, the cost for them will still be same which may not be profitable for a while.

Yes it's true, but miners could also still mine other Altcoins while mining BTC. Regarding in of cost in mining, Bitcoin code has a feature that automatically adjust whenever the mine block time is not reach this means if blocks is getting longer than 10 mins than the difficulty will decrease thus making miners mine faster and solved blocks and getting rewards.

[mk4]

Yes it's true, but miners could also still mine other Altcoins while mining BTC.

Sure, but also take note that most Bitcoin miners are most likely using ASIC miners, not GPUs. So altcoins are automatically out of the equation. In the end, it comes down mostly to two choices:

1. Them mining bitcoin regardless of the losses, hoping for bitcoin to rise in price in the future.
2. Them temporarily(or permanently) turning off their miners.

[Chivas Regal]

-ck pool has just closed their doors, so it's likely that others will follow which is a pity as it gives rise to the centralised mining that bitcoin has always wanted to avoid.

[stompix]

It's not a possibility, it's a matter of how many!

Simple basic math, the revenue is halved, the cost would have to be the same, obviously a lot of miners didn't have the cots less than half of what they were making.
You were getting 10 $, your costs were 2 $, now you're getting 5-2, still a profit.
You were getting 10 $, your costs were 6 $, now you're bleeding money so you turn off the gear.
As simple as that.

Regarding in of cost in mining, Bitcoin code has a feature that automatically adjust whenever the mine block time is not reach this means if blocks is getting longer than 10 mins than the difficulty will decrease thus making miners mine faster and solved blocks and getting rewards.

That is not a magic tool that somehow will make mining profitable again, it is designed to keep the block time, not the miner's profits. If the miners quit difficulty drops, it's tempting to go back and mine but if all do the same we're back to square one when they will again quit.
 
Let's wait and see how much of an impact this will have
630000   2020-05-11 19:23
630034   2020-05-12 02:12

That's 409 minutes for 34 blocks, 12 minutes on average!

[Eugenar]

It is really possible, we are here in this crypto world to earn money so we are looking for the bitcoin to go up so we can earn more, but it all depends on the thinking of person if he wants to earn money while the value of the bitcoin is high or he wants to earn money every time without thinking whether the price of bitcoin is down, it is a matter of thinking of different people in this crypto world. The best thing for me is to continue performing in the crypto world regardless of the value of bitcoin.

Oh, it's definitely possible, probably until the price goes high enough for bitcoin to be worth mining again. Especially for the small-time miners who have significantly slimmer profit margins compared to the big-time miners. In fact, this is what I assume will happen as it's the most likely one in my opinion. I don't think it's likely for bitcoin to rise in price in the short term.

Well said, there are many people who think that way, they tend to mine only when the value of the bitcoin is high but stops it when it goes down. I am a person like that before but I realized that it is worth it mining every time regardless with the price of the bitcoin.