Is it too early to say that the Hashrate has not been impacted by halving?

[nibor]

We are only a few hours off 24 hours from change and average hash rate still above the difficulty:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

Surprised that so few miners decided to turn off.

Or is it just that they are so old they contributed so little hash rate that made no measurable difference.

Which is good news! As means Bitcoin has remained as secure as it was yesterday.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

There are people who are worried about hash-rate, price of the bitcoin, if mining is still profitable or not but yes we are too early to talk about all these. One thing is for sure that there will be a balance as it was always.

[nibor]

I think we can conclude the impact is less that 25% for sure.... in a week be more certain..

[avikz]

I think we can conclude the impact is less that 25% for sure.... in a week be more certain..

We are not in a position to conclude anything at all. Whatever we are seeing is temporary. If the price increases, the miners will come back to business again. And if the price goes below 8k, we will see more miners closing off their operations. Yes, one week will be good to analyze the situation again!

[Ozero]

Why should miners disconnect before the onset of the reward reduction event itself. At first they will be convinced that the event really happened, after that they will evaluate the profitability of their activities and only after that they will make a decision. Most likely, the effect will be visible only after a few weeks. In the meantime, we will observe the events without much enthusiasm for the growth of the cryptocurrency market. Such growth is not possible soon, towards the end of the year. However, other events, such as the onset of the global economic crisis, may affect this.

[o_e_l_e_o]

There have been 123 blocks mined since the halving, and it took 20 hours and 21 minutes to mine them. This gives an average of 9 minutes and 55 seconds per block. Between the halving and the last difficulty adjustment, there were 1007 blocks mined in 6 days, 15 hours and 18 minutes, for an average of 9 minutes and 29 seconds per block.

If there has been a drop in hashrate in the last 20 hours (it's not a huge amount of data to go on, and so random chance will fuzzy the numbers a bit), then it has been small and likely hasn't dropped below what the hashrate was when the difficulty was last adjusted. If miners do start feeling a pinch in their profits, it's likely to be over the coming days to weeks and not immediately though, so it's too early to draw conclusions.

At both previous halvings, it was the second difficulty adjustment after the halving where we saw a significant decrease in difficulty signifying a drop in the hashrate.

Block 211,680 saw a 2.00% reduction
Block 213,696 saw a 11.59% reduction

Block 421,344 saw a 0.04% increase
Block 423,360 saw a 5.43% reduction

If the hashrate is going to be affected from this, it's too soon to tell.

[nibor]

At first they will be convinced that the event really happened, after that they will evaluate the profitability of their activities and only after that they will make a decision. Most likely, the effect will be visible only after a few weeks.

They have known it was 100% going to happen for years. And the exact day/time has become clear over the last week. So they will have done all the maths weeks ago based on current prices.

Remember most mining is done by massive farms with 100's if not 1000's of machines. So they know exactly what BTC price pays for the electricity of each machine. And you don't want 1000 machines losing you $1 a day - it adds up fast!

I would expect that they would turn off any that were over 10% loss making within hours - as worth getting someone to stay on site late/early to do it if you have a lot.

Obviously machines close to the boarder line of profitability may be turned off/on as price moves. Or more likely thrown away once the miner runs out of power capacity or space and a new batch of mining machines arrive.

[BrewMaster]

Surprised that so few miners decided to turn off.

we can't even measure hashrate with that kind of accuracy and in such a short period of time to want to conclude whether any miner at all has shut down or any new miner has come onboard. specifically when the changes look small on these types of charts they are within the acceptable error range.

[nibor]

At both previous halvings, it was the second difficulty adjustment after the halving where we saw a significant decrease in difficulty signifying a drop in the hashrate.

Guess as difficulty has been ramping up so that will negate the drop due to a few old miners being turned off.

Also I wonder if miners tend to invest a bit at the point of halving. As they have the warehouse/power all setup. So when they know they will be binning a load of old machines they need to replace them. Well either that or shut up shop.

[TravelMug]

At both previous halvings, it was the second difficulty adjustment after the halving where we saw a significant decrease in difficulty signifying a drop in the hashrate.

Guess as difficulty has been ramping up so that will negate the drop due to a few old miners being turned off.

Also I wonder if miners tend to invest a bit at the point of halving. As they have the warehouse/power all setup. So when they know they will be binning a load of old machines they need to replace them. Well either that or shut up shop.

Possible, they may have done some risk assessment and how well to manage it. So we can assume that they have replacement ready to continue to shop and used old machines to mine altcoins.

That's why we haven't see any noticeable drop in the hash rate post-halving. But I will say it's too early to conclude, maybe the impact can be felt in the next month or so.

[Darker45]

The observe and wait period has just began, and it probably does not just take overnight. I guess it is not surprising at all if a day after halving there is not a single miner who turns off operation. It might be too early to tell for now. A single day's net loss is definitely not enough reason for a miner to immediately shut down. The effect of the reward halving will take some time to sink in on the balance sheets, and from there the decision to continue or not.

[seoincorporation]

We are only a few hours off 24 hours from change and average hash rate still above the difficulty:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

Surprised that so few miners decided to turn off.

Or is it just that they are so old they contributed so little hash rate that made no measurable difference.

Which is good news! As means Bitcoin has remained as secure as it was yesterday.

I have the same feeling, i was expecting a massive drop down on the hash rate, from what i was thinking lot of miners would start working without profit and the best option should be to turn them down, but as we can see the change wasn't that big, i think we will have to wait one month and after that see if there is a real impact.

[joniboini]

I won't be surprised if the decrease is smaller than expected. One of the possible reasons is that mining farms or those miners find a better source of energy so they can mine with less cost than most people would expect. It'd be a good thing if they can find a reliable source of energy with less waste too.

[franky1]

We are only a few hours off 24 hours from change and average hash rate still above the difficulty:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

Surprised that so few miners decided to turn off.

Or is it just that they are so old they contributed so little hash rate that made no measurable difference.

Which is good news! As means Bitcoin has remained as secure as it was yesterday.

think of it this way
there is a base line of say 80exahash which is mining farms(big industry) miners always running because they hold year long contracts for purchase of facilities equipment and also they do 'wholesale' deals of buying electric from the grid. they will run no matter what. they dont play to the whims of daily activity. they are in it for the long haul

the amount above 80exa. well thats a mix of smaller commercial miners and also home hobby miners.
these lot of say 50exa (the wavy part at 90-140) jump in and out all the time, only mining when its profitable

[nibor]

Guess other factor is there may be farms where old mining machines are still making a small amount of money after electricity cost - but not really covering the overheads of building rent/staff etc....
There it makes sense to keep running them till a replacement one is purchased and arrives and to then bin them.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Possible, they may have done some risk assessment and how well to manage it.

Well, you would certainly hope so. It's not like the halving was unpredictable - we've known it was coming for a decade. Any responsible miner should have figured out and implemented whatever steps they needed to take to remain profitable after the halving well in advance.

One of the possible reasons is that mining farms or those miners find a better source of energy so they can mine with less cost than most people would expect.

The most accurate data we have suggest that 74% of energy used in bitcoin mining is from renewable sources. The main cost with using renewables is the set up fee, but once you've paid for the solar panels, wind turbines, whatever, then their upkeep cost is minimal. In these cases it makes no sense for miners to stop mining - they've already paid to install the renewable generators and can't get that money back, so turning their ASICs off would just be wasting free electricity.

[Tipstar]

It would take time to calculate the risks and rewards for the miners. But I believe there would be no significant decrease in has-rate as many industrial mining farm are increasing their capacity.

HIVE https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/hive-blockchain-increases-bitcoin-mining-capacity/

Agro https://cointelegraph.com/news/uk-bitcoin-miner-eyes-240-capacity-boost-with-new-10m-hardware-order

And they aren't the only, if miners are increasing their capacity, it means, there are still much room to fill in.

[nibor]

https://diff.cryptothis.com/ has good stats.. and predicts -5%
So if we assume that is from the second half of the period then lost about 10% of hashing power due to the halving.

Also interestingly this is predicting a 17.5b difficult average in Q3:
https://ftx.com/trade/BTC-HASH-2020Q3
although has tiny volumes so not sure should take much notice!

Which implies that the difficulty will raise by 20-30% over the quarter to about 20b. (as average is 17.5b).

So should be above the 16.5b seen in March by end of June.