Mining difficulty slowing down over the next 3 months?

[jamesg]

Until the new miners actually are released I still believe our jumps will be a bit lower than usual. I think for the next 2 months no huge increase. But thats just my opinion. When spoondolies and knc get their new miners out i think it will have a big jump but until then nothing unusual.

Steve

What exactly is a big jump these days?

With a difficulty of 11,756,551,917 or an average network speed of 84.157Ph/s to make another 20% increase you'd need the network to run at an AVERAGE of 100.989Ph/s.

That would mean that over 15Ph/s would need to come online in under 11 days.

Every increase we have from hear on out only makes it that much harder for another 20% jump to show up. They are most likely in the past.

Having said that, 10% seems to be the new normal for a while longer.

[klondike_bar]

Until the new miners actually are released I still believe our jumps will be a bit lower than usual. I think for the next 2 months no huge increase. But thats just my opinion. When spoondolies and knc get their new miners out i think it will have a big jump but until then nothing unusual.

Steve

What exactly is a big jump these days?

With a difficulty of 11,756,551,917 or an average network speed of 84.157Ph/s to make another 20% increase you'd need the network to run at an AVERAGE of 100.989Ph/s.

That would mean that over 15Ph/s would need to come online in under 11 days.

Every increase we have from hear on out only makes it that much harder for another 20% jump to show up. They are most likely in the past.

Having said that, 10% seems to be the new normal for a while longer.

thats my hope. most of my mining calculations in the last ~month assumed a 15% starting change and decreasing until its in the 7%/jump range sometime around november.  Hopefully we get there even sooner though

[taipo]

Appears to be another 14% coming up. Crystal ball says 13.99% and rising slightly
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[samsonn25]

At the diff levels and current btc price now Asic equipment needs to be priced $1000 per TH to have any Roi for miners.

[ElGrandJefe]

At the diff levels and current btc price now Asic equipment needs to be priced $1000 per TH to have any Roi for miners.

You mean "break even". ROI stands for "return on investment". If you earn one satoshi (or $0.01, if you prefer) over your electricity costs, you will have a return, but you will not break even.

Sorry to be "that guy", but that's a pet peeve.

[samsonn25]

At the diff levels and current btc price now Asic equipment needs to be priced $1000 per TH to have any Roi for miners.

You mean "break even". ROI stands for "return on investment". If you earn one satoshi (or $0.01, if you prefer) over your electricity costs, you will have a return, but you will not break even.

Sorry to be "that guy", but that's a pet peeve.

Because its an investment, I am assuming most people want not to lose money.

It is a losing investment until it breaks even at least.  Thus the roi really stands for "positive".

Perhaps a better way to phrase it is positive roi.  proi?

[klondike_bar]

At the diff levels and current btc price now Asic equipment needs to be priced $1000 per TH to have any Roi for miners.

not true.

For hardware that you could have in-hand by the end of this week, fair price per terahash IMO would be:

2w/GH:  $0.70/GH - $0.90/GH
1.5w/GH:  $0.80/GH - $1.10/GH
1.2w/GH:  $0.85/GH - $1.30/GH
1w/GH:  $1.10/GH - $1.60/GH
0.75w/GH:  $1.50/GH - $2.25/GH

The range sybolizes the premium paid for models with better build quality or included power supplies. (for example the SP10 at 1w/GH is a better product than the Bitmain S2 kit at 1w/GH, and worth ~$200 dollars more)

Mining will soon happen primarily in areas where electricity is cheap. Those paying >$0.20/kWh will see little or no profit compared to those mining at <$0.10/kWh - perhaps as much as 20% of the hardware price

[samsonn25]

But manufacturers are way off your estimates.  By the time they reduce to that diff will be 20 B

So lets assume .16 to .20 electricity.

I agree above .20 electricity is almost done.

[Glizlack]

Sad to say but I consider anything under 15% not a huge jump. I noticed the network hash rate was going up and down a lot the past few days I was hoping for only 11% but I think I am going to be disappointed.

Steve

[R4v37]

Sad to say but I consider anything under 15% not a huge jump. I noticed the network hash rate was going up and down a lot the past few days I was hoping for only 11% but I think I am going to be disappointed.

Steve

lets hope together 

[Cranky4u]

Mining will soon happen primarily in areas where electricity is cheap. Those paying >$0.20/kWh will see little or no profit compared to those mining at <$0.10/kWh - perhaps as much as 20% of the hardware price

Heard all this before with the change from GPU > FPGA > ASIC 1st gen >ASIC rd gen (now)

I am still chugging away profitably using captial invested at the GPU stage. You just need to have a profitcable business plan and stick to it. I may not be getting 1000% ROI p.a. but 200% is still pretty damn good.

[R4v37]

Mining will soon happen primarily in areas where electricity is cheap. Those paying >$0.20/kWh will see little or no profit compared to those mining at <$0.10/kWh - perhaps as much as 20% of the hardware price

Heard all this before with the change from GPU > FPGA > ASIC 1st gen >ASIC rd gen (now)

I am still chugging away profitably using captial invested at the GPU stage. You just need to have a profitcable business plan and stick to it. I may not be getting 1000% ROI p.a. but 200% is still pretty damn good.

why dont we steal the electricity...
its 0/kwh  

[samsonn25]

There will always be people with free electricity that can compete with the datacenters, and enthusiasts and supporters.

[R4v37]

There will always be people with free electricity that can compete with the datacenters, and enthusiasts and supporters.

such as....?

[taipo]

Such as established businesses, for example a web hosting company or similar, that buy and run miners as a way of writing off some of their profits, even to the point of running their businesses at a loss. They can afford to continue adding large piles of miners to data centers even though it costs them a pile of real cash for the equipment and power.

At the end of the day they run the books at a loss, very little if any tax to pay, even run their miners at unprofitable levels, because at the same time, there is no comeback on them as to where the BTC would go to...

[BetMoose]

Relevant proposition someone just submitted for your consideration:

___________

Bitcoin difficulty will drop more than 10% in 2014Options: Yes | No

[Bitcoin++]

Who buys hardware these days?

I last bought Antminer S1s a couple of weeks ago. Now I expect them to break even ... barely. And at some point I must undervolt. A lot of work for a few bucks.

S2 is ~$2100 and takes three months to pay back assuming no electric cost, no difficulty increase and stable BTC price. I cannot understand why anyone would buy. You may make it back only if the BTC price increases but then you'd anyway be better off buying BTC in the first place.

[taipo]

Sad to say but I consider anything under 15% not a huge jump. I noticed the network hash rate was going up and down a lot the past few days I was hoping for only 11% but I think I am going to be disappointed.

Steve

You may just get your huge jump yet. 14.3% and rising.

[ThomasCrowne]

sure aint looking that way

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[lightfoot]

It is going to *squeak* under there...

C