Mining difficulty slowing down over the next 3 months?

[mikerbiker6]

@ taipo, where do you get that 67% from?
source please

[nwfella]

I sure hope that mining difficulty will stabilize at some point. But if it's a lot of hardware to be yet delivered soon, we have to wait for that a while.

Don't hold your breath on this one.  Hashrate is going to continue this crazy hike for quite sometime imho.

[samsonn25]

Over the past year diff jump is average 18.5% something like that

[navigator]

Just remember that if part of the reason for the recent difficulty hike is bitmain testing S3's, when they go to sell them the difficulty doesn't increase more. Hastrate is only changing hands and not being newly produced.

[samsonn25]

Just remember that if part of the reason for the recent difficulty hike is bitmain testing S3's, when they go to sell them the difficulty doesn't increase more. Hastrate is only changing hands and not being newly produced.

Its probably a combination of them testing the s3 and KNC testing the Neptunes as they are starting to ship now.

[DubFX]

Just remember that if part of the reason for the recent difficulty hike is bitmain testing S3's, when they go to sell them the difficulty doesn't increase more. Hastrate is only changing hands and not being newly produced.

Its probably a combination of them testing the s3 and KNC testing the Neptunes as they are starting to ship now.

This logic doesn't make sense to me, and what do you think that will be done with these s3's and neptunes after they will be shipped? They will get plugged by their buyers so the diff. won't go down/stop increasing anyway.

[samsonn25]

Just remember that if part of the reason for the recent difficulty hike is bitmain testing S3's, when they go to sell them the difficulty doesn't increase more. Hastrate is only changing hands and not being newly produced.

Its probably a combination of them testing the s3 and KNC testing the Neptunes as they are starting to ship now.

This logic doesn't make sense to me, and what do you think that will be done with these s3's and neptunes after they will be shipped? They will get plugged by their buyers so the diff. won't go down/stop increasing anyway.

It wont go down, because for every one they sell to customers they will make 2-3 for themselves.

[DubFX]

Just remember that if part of the reason for the recent difficulty hike is bitmain testing S3's, when they go to sell them the difficulty doesn't increase more. Hastrate is only changing hands and not being newly produced.

Its probably a combination of them testing the s3 and KNC testing the Neptunes as they are starting to ship now.

This logic doesn't make sense to me, and what do you think that will be done with these s3's and neptunes after they will be shipped? They will get plugged by their buyers so the diff. won't go down/stop increasing anyway.

It wont go down, because for every one they sell to customers they will make 2-3 for themselves.

That's quite what i'm trying to say...it will just simply continue to go up.

[DrG]

Just remember that if part of the reason for the recent difficulty hike is bitmain testing S3's, when they go to sell them the difficulty doesn't increase more. Hastrate is only changing hands and not being newly produced.

Its probably a combination of them testing the s3 and KNC testing the Neptunes as they are starting to ship now.

This logic doesn't make sense to me, and what do you think that will be done with these s3's and neptunes after they will be shipped? They will get plugged by their buyers so the diff. won't go down/stop increasing anyway.

It wont go down, because for every one they sell to customers they will make 2-3 for themselves.

That's quite what i'm trying to say...it will just simply continue to go up.

Yeah the only thing stopping any manufacturer from having 100PH/s available for sale is space for the miners and their own power plant - you know one of these companies will buy a coal based one sooner or later 

[samsonn25]

It will be most interesting at about 50 b difficulty when manufacturers can't build under the cost to make the machines and run the electric to positive roi.

[taipo]

@ taipo, where do you get that 67% from?
source please

Source: Taipos small test mining rig, power bill and calculator

It will be most interesting at about 50 b difficulty when manufacturers can't build under the cost to make the machines and run the electric to positive roi.

Precisely, and if the diff keeps going up in leaps and bounds, we will get there much sooner than has been predicted.

[davejh]

@ taipo, where do you get that 67% from?
source please

Source: Taipos small test mining rig, power bill and calculator

It will be most interesting at about 50 b difficulty when manufacturers can't build under the cost to make the machines and run the electric to positive roi.

Precisely, and if the diff keeps going up in leaps and bounds, we will get there much sooner than has been predicted.

Certainly there's more headroom than there was in the system a few months ago. I ran some predictions back in April and they were thrown into somewhat chaos within weeks because the cost per GH/s and the BTC:USD prices both changed dramatically. One makes hash rate more cost effective, the other provides more scope to pay for it.

I'm not sure that there's anything very specifically magic about 50b, but that's certainly a level at which a large amount of the hardware providing the current hash rate has probably become totally obsolete.

With a 15% difficulty increase we'll hit 50b pretty quickly. 15% is approximately 12 days per 2016 blocks so to get a 3x increase would take 8 difficulty changes, or 96 days. That would put us sometime around early October

[taipo]

I think the reason why 50b is a marker other than it being a nice round figure, is because many believe that at 50b, any miner not at 1TH/1kW will be out of the game. But also around that time frame many of the 0.5kW per 1TH miners will be coming online as well, for example the Spoondoley SP30 if they keep to their timeframe.

According to Hoyle, the next quantum leap will be somewhere between 25% and 27%.

[DrG]

We've already seen people retire their block eruptors.  I have 10 BFL SC Singles that I retired earlier this month.  They would still generate a profit since I have some free electricity, but I am thermally limited and my scrypt rigs make more per watt than the ASICs do.  The Avalon Batch 1-3 and AM blades will be turning off soon as well.  Of course difficulty won't drop because you need 20-50 of these low end devices to match just 1 Cointerra 1.6TH/s

[samsonn25]

I think the reason why 50b is a marker other than it being a nice round figure, is because many believe that at 50b, any miner not at 1TH/1kW will be out of the game. But also around that time frame many of the 0.5kW per 1TH miners will be coming online as well, for example the Spoondoley SP30 if they keep to their timeframe.

According to Hoyle, the next quantum leap will be somewhere between 25% and 27%.

It is at that point a 1 TH miner at .5 watt efficiency will roi about .28 BTC, with average electricity.

Problems with pricing machines?

[taipo]

I guess if I were a manufacturer of lets say, a miner which we will call V1, I would run a survey of say the top 500 regular customers or that miner, trace back their BTC payments to their wallets, and from their wallets to their mining pools, and pick from those, all the users that mine on Eligius ( for example ), database as much intel as I could about their mining habits because their stats are public. Database their hashrates, increases, BTC mined, and what percentage of that BTC the average miner of that bunch spent to order my miner.

I would already know at what point the difficulty my miner would cease being profitable, and time the release of my V2 model to coincide with lets say a month or two before that time period, give or take a few weeks.

I could easily work out to a small percent of error, just how much my own customers would be willing to pay for the V2 miner with greater hashrate, less power usage, and the pressure of the V1 becoming unprofitable.

So if that were true, that could be one explaination as to why some of the more on to it manufacturers are timing the release of their 1w/gh or less miners to fall within the July / August period.

But as to the issue of problems with pricing, few of the more dependable manufacturers have gotten that wrong, seems the prices they put up are the ones their loyal customers are willing to fork out for.

[taipo]

Some indication why the difficulty is about to make a quantum leap.



http://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

[ElGrandJefe]

Some indication why the difficulty is about to make a quantum leap.



http://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

I read somewhere that Friedcat was going to ship enough chips to add 30 TH to the network this month, 70 next month, and 100 in August. That's in addition to KnC and the others.

If that's really the case, we ain't seen nothing yet.

[Bitsaurus]

Wow, so basically it's just like last year with Avalon out of the picture.  AsicMiner takes over the show with chips everywhere haha

[norgan]

I think I have an idea and have observed on my own rigs over the last few months but what effect does diff have exactly on payout. If diff increases by 20% is it exactly 20% less payout? or is it proportional?
My own observations, be they anecdotal at best, seem to show diff in crease doesn't have as high an effect as it first seems.