Economy after COVID-19

[DrBeer]

Can you, for example, give a 100% guarantee that, for example, in India or Mexico, the incidence and death rates from Covid correspond to at least 90% of the real picture?

I can't speak for Mexico, because I don't have any information about that country. But I have relatives in India and I can assure you that the number of deaths they are reporting from India are very close to the real numbers. The truth is that the mortality rate is much lower in India. But this is not due to any work done by the government. Indians have constant exposure to flu-virus and therefore their natural immunity is better. Across the South Asian region (Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka.etc), you can find the same scenario. On the other hand, the highest mortality rate for CoVID 19 was reported from the Latin American region, which includes Mexico.

With all due respect to you, my question is - how can relatives assess the death rate across the country? To assess mortality, it is necessary to unambiguously identify the deceased, in whom the cause of death was precisely the lesions caused by direct or indirect exposure to the virus.
Why is the death rate so high in the USA? Because there is a much higher level of identification of causes of death. Do not take it as an insult, but I have an assumption that in India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, as well as other countries with abnormally low mortality rates, the level of determining the causes of death is significantly lower, and the coverage of all deaths by this process.
Constant illness with seasonal or bacteriological diseases does not form the immune response of the system against the corona virus, but I correctly understood the phrase "Indians have constant exposure to flu-virus and therefore their natural immunity is better." ? Even if immunity was developed, then there would be no high incidence rate. immunity would not have allowed to get sick.

And yet - I propose to do the following:
1.Take the world ranking in terms of living standards (data are available for 2020), this is not an indicator of income or wealth, it is an integral indicator of many parameters - from the level of income, medical care, etc.
2. Superimpose on it the relative mortality rate
If you do this, you will notice a very clear correlation: the higher the level of this rating, the higher the relative mortality rate, and vice versa - with a decrease in the quality of life - the relative mortality decreases! Isn't it weird? It seems that living conditions, health, medicine, medicines are better ... But everything becomes clear if you evaluate the quality of medicine, coverage, "purity" of statistics. I do not want to offend the people of Bangladesh, for example, in my country (Ukraine) there is a very similar picture that I have seen since March last year. I can say one thing - there is a very noticeable dynamics in the detection of infection and high-quality diagnosis of causes of death, with the dynamics of an increase in the level of provision of hospitals with good equipment, tests, etc. The last half of the year in Ukraine began to identify a lot more cases, more began to identify the causes of death from Covid and its associated problems. Previously, they often wrote "cause of death: bilateral pneumonia" or "acute heart failure", although these were the consequences of Covid - lung damage, or the failure of the cardiac system from a high temperature.
In a word, the main reason for such low rates that you are talking about is most likely an insufficient level, or small coverage, of detecting and diagnosing a disease.

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[DrBeer]

I can't speak for Mexico, because I don't have any information about that country. But I have relatives in India and I can assure you that the number of deaths they are reporting from India are very close to the real numbers. The truth is that the mortality rate is much lower in India. But this is not due to any work done by the government. Indians have constant exposure to flu-virus and therefore their natural immunity is better. Across the South Asian region (Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka.etc), you can find the same scenario. On the other hand, the highest mortality rate for CoVID 19 was reported from the Latin American region, which includes Mexico.

According to you, a week ago the situation in India was quite positive - vaccination, "innate high immunity of the population", a low spread of the disease, a positive situation ... And suddenly a sharp increase in infection begins, hundreds of thousands of new cases are detected, India becomes one of the " leaders "in morbidity? What do you think caused this change in the situation? 2 mVrts per day revealed approximately 15,000-16,000 infected per day, now 350,000, and this is a 20-fold increase!

[Vishnu.Reang]

According to you, a week ago the situation in India was quite positive - vaccination, "innate high immunity of the population", a low spread of the disease, a positive situation ... And suddenly a sharp increase in infection begins, hundreds of thousands of new cases are detected, India becomes one of the " leaders "in morbidity? What do you think caused this change in the situation? 2 mVrts per day revealed approximately 15,000-16,000 infected per day, now 350,000, and this is a 20-fold increase!

350,000 infected, but less than 1% mortality rate. In Brazil they are reporting more number of deaths every day, from 70,000 or 80,000 infections. Yes.. there is a 20x increase in the number of new cases and the situation is really bad here. But India is a country with a population of 1.4 billion. India hasn't become "one of the leaders" in morbidity. The morbidity rate is still less than 1%, despite the emergence of the double-mutant strain.

[DrBeer]

According to you, a week ago the situation in India was quite positive - vaccination, "innate high immunity of the population", a low spread of the disease, a positive situation ... And suddenly a sharp increase in infection begins, hundreds of thousands of new cases are detected, India becomes one of the " leaders "in morbidity? What do you think caused this change in the situation? 2 mVrts per day revealed approximately 15,000-16,000 infected per day, now 350,000, and this is a 20-fold increase!

350,000 infected, but less than 1% mortality rate. In Brazil they are reporting more number of deaths every day, from 70,000 or 80,000 infections. Yes.. there is a 20x increase in the number of new cases and the situation is really bad here. But India is a country with a population of 1.4 billion. India hasn't become "one of the leaders" in morbidity. The morbidity rate is still less than 1%, despite the emergence of the double-mutant strain.

Thanks for the clarification!
Yes, I understand perfectly well that India is the largest country in terms of population, and, conventionally, 1 million for India is not equal to 1 million for example for Spain. BUT:
- Such a sharp jump in growth in a VERY short period is very strange
- Mortality - I think it is too early to talk about this indicator, I am sure that there is a problem called "insufficient diagnosis of the causes of death." It would be more correct by the end of the year to impose on the graph the ACTUAL adjustment of population decline / mortality, with the dynamics of morbidity.
For example, in my country, the government manipulates these indicators quite noticeably, so I assume that in other countries, for the sake of its own benefits, this can happen

[bryant.coleman]

Thanks for the clarification!
Yes, I understand perfectly well that India is the largest country in terms of population, and, conventionally, 1 million for India is not equal to 1 million for example for Spain. BUT:
- Such a sharp jump in growth in a VERY short period is very strange
- Mortality - I think it is too early to talk about this indicator, I am sure that there is a problem called "insufficient diagnosis of the causes of death." It would be more correct by the end of the year to impose on the graph the ACTUAL adjustment of population decline / mortality, with the dynamics of morbidity.
For example, in my country, the government manipulates these indicators quite noticeably, so I assume that in other countries, for the sake of its own benefits, this can happen

India is currently undergoing it's second wave of CoVID 19 pandemic. Similarly, Brazil is going through the third wave. Many other countries have already gone through the third and fourth waves of this pandemic. I am not a resident of India right now, so it is impossible to get an idea about what is going on there. Still, from what I have heard from my friends suggest that there is no large-scale manipulation of the mortality data.

[DrBeer]

Thanks for the clarification!
Yes, I understand perfectly well that India is the largest country in terms of population, and, conventionally, 1 million for India is not equal to 1 million for example for Spain. BUT:
- Such a sharp jump in growth in a VERY short period is very strange
- Mortality - I think it is too early to talk about this indicator, I am sure that there is a problem called "insufficient diagnosis of the causes of death." It would be more correct by the end of the year to impose on the graph the ACTUAL adjustment of population decline / mortality, with the dynamics of morbidity.
For example, in my country, the government manipulates these indicators quite noticeably, so I assume that in other countries, for the sake of its own benefits, this can happen

India is currently undergoing it's second wave of CoVID 19 pandemic. Similarly, Brazil is going through the third wave. Many other countries have already gone through the third and fourth waves of this pandemic. I am not a resident of India right now, so it is impossible to get an idea about what is going on there. Still, from what I have heard from my friends suggest that there is no large-scale manipulation of the mortality data.

Do you understand what the problem is? India's statistics, have "anomalies", from general, less standard statistics. Just like that, there are no anomalies! Anomaly is an indicator of an unknown process affecting the indicators ... Why I talked about data manipulation - the picture is very similar to the data manipulation that our government "does".
I am very worried about the "shooting" almost vertically upward incidence graph for just a few days. In other countries, 2 and following waves have a growing chart, a wave. In India now - the candle is up. Tell me - in India in the near future there were no mass holidays with festivities and mass festivals?

[bryant.coleman]

Do you understand what the problem is? India's statistics, have "anomalies", from general, less standard statistics. Just like that, there are no anomalies! Anomaly is an indicator of an unknown process affecting the indicators ... Why I talked about data manipulation - the picture is very similar to the data manipulation that our government "does".
I am very worried about the "shooting" almost vertically upward incidence graph for just a few days. In other countries, 2 and following waves have a growing chart, a wave. In India now - the candle is up. Tell me - in India in the near future there were no mass holidays with festivities and mass festivals?

Listen. I have lived in India for a long time, although I am not a resident of that country right now. I still have a lot of relatives and friends over there, and I have a good idea about the situation there. You are someone who is residing in Ukraine and have no idea about how things work in India. You don't want to take facts in to consideration and blindly want to argue that all the data is manipulated. The simple fact is that Asian countries have fared much better than the European or American countries as far as CoVID 19 is concerned. And this is despite the fact that the European/American nations hoarded all of the quality vaccines.

[Kittygalore]

I am sure that a lot of poor countries including mine would be economically devastated after this pandemic considering that there was a lot of revenue and workforce that was lost during the pandemic and recovery is going to be difficult, hopefully we can see some policy changes after this pandemic.

[DrBeer]

Do you understand what the problem is? India's statistics, have "anomalies", from general, less standard statistics. Just like that, there are no anomalies! Anomaly is an indicator of an unknown process affecting the indicators ... Why I talked about data manipulation - the picture is very similar to the data manipulation that our government "does".
I am very worried about the "shooting" almost vertically upward incidence graph for just a few days. In other countries, 2 and following waves have a growing chart, a wave. In India now - the candle is up. Tell me - in India in the near future there were no mass holidays with festivities and mass festivals?

Listen. I have lived in India for a long time, although I am not a resident of that country right now. I still have a lot of relatives and friends over there, and I have a good idea about the situation there. You are someone who is residing in Ukraine and have no idea about how things work in India. You don't want to take facts in to consideration and blindly want to argue that all the data is manipulated. The simple fact is that Asian countries have fared much better than the European or American countries as far as CoVID 19 is concerned. And this is despite the fact that the European/American nations hoarded all of the quality vaccines.

Do not take my post as an attempt to offend you, I am with peaceful ideas

I am talking about the fact that when the same disease spreads, in the presence of differences in different sections (morbidity, mortality, vaccine efficacy, drug efficacy), systematicity should be traced. And if there are NOTICEABLE differences, then there must be a reason to justify them. For example (conditionally) - geographical - in "cold" regions, some diseases from "warm countries" have minimal chances of spreading, and vice versa. As far as I know, no one has genetic innate immunity to this virus, and the temperature does not greatly affect it. The population density, the level of antiviral measures, the level of vaccination, etc. are more influenced. Agree - this is logical.
I absolutely trust you, and that is why I asked the question - in India in the near future there were no events / holidays that were accompanied by mass events? This is one of the options explaining the "vertical" graph of the growth of new infections.
Once again - I am not trying to comment and draw conclusions on the counting in India, I want to understand the reason for the sudden, abnormally, explosive growth of new infections.

[bryant.coleman]

I absolutely trust you, and that is why I asked the question - in India in the near future there were no events / holidays that were accompanied by mass events? This is one of the options explaining the "vertical" graph of the growth of new infections.
Once again - I am not trying to comment and draw conclusions on the counting in India, I want to understand the reason for the sudden, abnormally, explosive growth of new infections.

The major festival (Holi) occurred two months back and I don't think that there was any spike as a result of that. IMO, the sudden spike in the number of new infections results from the highly contagious double-mutant strain (B.1.617) of the virus that has been discovered in India. Many of the countries that are badly hit by CoVID 19 have reported similar strains (P.1 for example, which was first reported form Brazil). I would argue that the new strain is causing an explosion in the new cases, and not any mass events.

[celot]

Our activities are still limited to this day, even though we have almost two years of the Covid 19 pandemic, we can't go anywhere and very sad I can't back to my family because our government not allowed for go home with this pandemic. Not any ideas how to stop this virus although thousand vaccine have distributed still not any solution yet until now to make pandemic ended.

[DrBeer]

I absolutely trust you, and that is why I asked the question - in India in the near future there were no events / holidays that were accompanied by mass events? This is one of the options explaining the "vertical" graph of the growth of new infections.
Once again - I am not trying to comment and draw conclusions on the counting in India, I want to understand the reason for the sudden, abnormally, explosive growth of new infections.

The major festival (Holi) occurred two months back and I don't think that there was any spike as a result of that. IMO, the sudden spike in the number of new infections results from the highly contagious double-mutant strain (B.1.617) of the virus that has been discovered in India. Many of the countries that are badly hit by CoVID 19 have reported similar strains (P.1 for example, which was first reported form Brazil). I would argue that the new strain is causing an explosion in the new cases, and not any mass events.

Large crowds are the ideal environment for the widest possible spread of the virus, and even such wonderful holidays as Holi / Festival of Colors. If everyone is at home and has little contact (quarantine), the rate of transmission from one person to another slows down dramatically. And the more close contacts, the more transmission channels, there is pure physics of transmission. Those. just a new virus will not give an outbreak, which, in general, is proved by other countries that also suffer from 2-3 waves and new and mutations, but adhere to strict restrictive measures. IMHO - in the first place, among the reasons for the explosive growth, most likely mass celebrations and events, or rather large gatherings of people.
Another question - is there statistics on how many people take part in these mass events?

By the way, if you look at the same Brazil, you will notice that between the carnival in 2020 (March 2020) and the beginning of a noticeable increase in the disease, the same approximately 1.5 months can be traced (May 2020).

I will add another example from life - despite the fact that in Ukraine there are not a full 40 million people, but in the capital there are about 4 million people, this is absolutely not commensurate with the population of India, but as soon as, after the new year, many decided that "the disease is controlled ", and began mass visits to shopping centers, cinemas, restaurants, pubs, etc. - after 1.5 months we received a "result" - a noticeable surge and an increase in the detection of new diseases. True, at first we pretended that everything was fine, and then realized that we were on the verge of a new explosion of the disease, and introduced another quarantine in many regions of the country, including the capital.
I will also add that the period is 1-1.5 months, this is exactly the period when a critical mass of carriers and primary cases is formed, after which an explosive growth of the disease begins, this is quite consistent with the model of the spread of the virus.

[FairUser]

I am sure that a lot of poor countries including mine would be economically devastated after this pandemic considering that there was a lot of revenue and workforce that was lost during the pandemic and recovery is going to be difficult, hopefully we can see some policy changes after this pandemic.

Not only poor countries but also economic powers are also severely affected by the epidemic. America is an example, I didn't know you noticed when the epidemic affected their employment so much. I am also really scared that if this situation goes long and there is no solution, it will lead to even worse consequences.

[bryant.coleman]

Large crowds are the ideal environment for the widest possible spread of the virus, and even such wonderful holidays as Holi / Festival of Colors. If everyone is at home and has little contact (quarantine), the rate of transmission from one person to another slows down dramatically. And the more close contacts, the more transmission channels, there is pure physics of transmission. Those. just a new virus will not give an outbreak, which, in general, is proved by other countries that also suffer from 2-3 waves and new and mutations, but adhere to strict restrictive measures. IMHO - in the first place, among the reasons for the explosive growth, most likely mass celebrations and events, or rather large gatherings of people.
Another question - is there statistics on how many people take part in these mass events?

By the way, if you look at the same Brazil, you will notice that between the carnival in 2020 (March 2020) and the beginning of a noticeable increase in the disease, the same approximately 1.5 months can be traced (May 2020).

I will add another example from life - despite the fact that in Ukraine there are not a full 40 million people, but in the capital there are about 4 million people, this is absolutely not commensurate with the population of India, but as soon as, after the new year, many decided that "the disease is controlled ", and began mass visits to shopping centers, cinemas, restaurants, pubs, etc. - after 1.5 months we received a "result" - a noticeable surge and an increase in the detection of new diseases. True, at first we pretended that everything was fine, and then realized that we were on the verge of a new explosion of the disease, and introduced another quarantine in many regions of the country, including the capital.
I will also add that the period is 1-1.5 months, this is exactly the period when a critical mass of carriers and primary cases is formed, after which an explosive growth of the disease begins, this is quite consistent with the model of the spread of the virus.

I had also explored about the possibility of a spike created as a result of the Holi celebrations. But my contacts vehemently deny that it is possible. One factor that they point out is that there was absolutely no spike after the new year celebrations (the number of cases on the contrary went down in January). I know that new year celebrations are quite big in India and there was no social distancing or government restrictions at that point of time. The situation was quite relaxed back then. Then suddenly during the first week of April, the cases started exploding all of a sudden.

One explanation that I have heard is about the UK strain. In India, it was first reported from the state of Punjab. Then it spread to other states in North India. I don't think that Holi was the trigger, because it is not celebrated in South India. However, the recent wave impacted South Indian states as well.

[karanggatak]

Our activities are still limited to this day, even though we have almost two years of the Covid 19 pandemic, we can't go anywhere and very sad I can't back to my family because our government not allowed for go home with this pandemic. Not any ideas how to stop this virus although thousand vaccine have distributed still not any solution yet until now to make pandemic ended.

I think the virus can be stopped if everyone is aware of the current condition, a vaccine is not the main solution to solve a pandemic, a vaccine is only to prevent COVID19 from attacking us but that is not necessarily 100% accurate
at this point we can only wait until the conditions are completely normal again, by still wearing masks and keeping our distance, that's all we can do at this time.

[Koro-Sensei]

Right now the pandemic is not showing any signs of a slowdown. Especially in regions such as the United States and the European Union, the number of new infections are rising. First the pandemic needs to be contained. Only after that, we can plan about any sort of economic recovery. Trends are looking bad, as the winter season is peaking in the northern hemisphere.

It will be reduced after the distribution of the vaccine, and it's going to happen on the second of the year, once the first wave of distribution of vaccine occur the percentage could drop to 50% we will build a herd immunity right away even if only 20% of the world's population is vaccinated, there is a study that vaccination could last for two years until everybody is vaccinated.

I don't think everyone wants to be vaccinated so obviously the second wave will definitely take longer, and it is more serious that 2021 is the start of vaccine distribution and starting this injection which will maintain our immunity so the process may run 20% accordingly the percentage where the world's population needs advice on how to deal with vaccines with confidence.
And the most important thing for me is that our immune system can and does not need to be vaccinated.

question is for how long vaccine will protect our immune sistem, and how will it take. when will look on both sides its not good at all

The fact that these vaccines are made to protect you to have that severe symptoms, it is quite good to have one. It doesn't protect you to have the COVID anymore but it'll save you from certain death. If you don't want to have vaccines just because that you are not certain for its efficacy, then probably think twice. Protect your children by injecting one, your grandma whose immune systems are weak anymore, your friends who have a immuno deficiency problems. Thou shall not doubt the science who could help us have the freedom we would have if we all care for all around us.

[DrBeer]

Our activities are still limited to this day, even though we have almost two years of the Covid 19 pandemic, we can't go anywhere and very sad I can't back to my family because our government not allowed for go home with this pandemic. Not any ideas how to stop this virus although thousand vaccine have distributed still not any solution yet until now to make pandemic ended.

This problem, the problem of the proliferation of Covid19, will not be resolved until several important conditions are met:
- vaccination of more than 75% of the population with a vaccine efficiency of at least 70%, for the formation of mass immunity
- control and restriction of movement of those who are not vaccinated or do not have immunity, namely, a ban on long-distance travel (unfortunately, a forced measure)
- long-term quarantine measures (restriction of mass gatherings, holidays, etc.)

[Arkann]

the coronavirus has had a very negative impact on the global economy and almost many countries are on the brink of survival. the global problem is that many people are at risk of being left below the poverty line due to high unemployment rates. But part of the solution to this problem was found by the French government to help business and, accordingly, increase the number of jobs. We are talking about the mechanism of "joint participation loans" or "lending with partial government support". France used this option to support the country's economy back in 1978.

[sarmrakib]

The world is frustrated like me for this serious virus attack. The economy has fall down globally and the people are surviving still now and we don't know when the situation will be on controll. The main fact after that what will be the economy i can't think it right now cause the world still surviving a lot so hope the virus will finsh first.

[conected]

The world is frustrated like me for this serious virus attack. The economy has fall down globally and the people are surviving still now and we don't know when the situation will be on controll. The main fact after that what will be the economy i can't think it right now cause the world still surviving a lot so hope the virus will finsh first.

- A real darkness is covering and hiding the economic future after the pandemic is over because Covid's damage statistics are still growing, India is perhaps the most dire country in recent days, the number of people in danger and death is reaching record levels, very worried that Covid is not over even when many governments have provided optimal treatment. Once again judged on economy, it is still a topic that is too early to discuss but we will not be able to smile at such numbers, this is the lives of so many people