There's something Satoshi didn't think of.

[BlackHatCoiner]

We can all agree that Satoshi wanted to create the coin that will replace banks and their trust abuse. If he wanted to create the perfect coin, he might have failed.

We, people, buy bitcoins from miners because they are the only ones that can provide us their rewarded bitcoins. Then we make exchanges with each other. There's a problem with the halving tho.

Recently we had our 3rd halving, cutting the bitcoins per block to 6.25

If price goes up, there will be good and bad things too. I think bad things will be more. I don't know what happened in the previous halving but surely due to demand and supply many sold their bitcoins and many miners sold/got rid of their equipment.

Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day. Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$

So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.

Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.

But if price will rise then we should all go and buy a bitcoin right now? Hmm? I think this is a paradox.

Umm... BlackHatCoiner, why that title?
Well I believe that Satoshi hadn't thought that many would see bitcoin as an investment and not as a coin, and that mining will not be beneficial except if price goes up. But if price goes up then we should all go and by one BTC right now, but if we all go and buy one then price will go down and miners will not afford it. And it seems like a circle to me.

I find very likely bitcoin price to get increased over time. But shhh, i don't want anyone to find it out  

Your thoughts, correct me if you think I was somewhere wrong.

[1714863704]

1714863704

[arbiter5]

I'm fairly certain that Satoshi has considered this. This is why the mining difficulty exists. Some miners shut down their machines, mining difficulty will drop, hence more opportunities for other miners.

As long as there's profit to be made, there will be miners.

As for year 2136, it's fair to assume that if there aren't enough transactions for miners to profit from, we could probably say that Bitcoin has failed.

A quote from Satoshi himself: "I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume".

We could apply the same quote for 100+ years from now.

[odolvlobo]

...
So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.
...

There is no issue. There will always be miners. Don't forget that people were mining bitcoins when the block reward was worth less than $1.

The idea that all miners will stop mining if the price is too low or the difficulty is too high is naive. No matter what the price is or what the difficulty is, some miners can make a profit and some can't.

[Tipstar]

I would like to think satoshi planned most of it. Bitcoin was not intended to be a currency but an investment. Satoshi planned it all from the start, all of his holding and disappearing are linked to inflationary nature of bitcoin. As of the future, the number of transaction may decrease but that necessarily won't decrease the price. The fees would be high to sustain mining.

[seoincorporation]

I wouldn't say satoshi didn't think about that, remember this quote:

Right.  Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating.  In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for mining nodes.   I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

His bet was a go big or go home...

[salamat700]

...
So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.
...

There is no issue. There will always be miners. Don't forget that people were mining bitcoins when the block reward was worth less than $1.

The idea that all miners will stop mining if the price is too low or the difficulty is too high is naive. No matter what the price is or what the difficulty is, some miners can make a profit and some can't.

When there will be less miners then those who are left will get benefited. What is amazing here is that this can be a microcosm of the bigger business environment where the law on supply and demand are carried out. In the next many decades, I am sure that mining Bitcoin can still be profitable but of course things can be more difficult so those who are creative enough are expected to survive and flourish while those who are not can be out of business.

[pooya87]

We can all agree that Satoshi wanted to create the coin that will replace banks and their trust abuse. If he wanted to create the perfect coin, he might have failed.

wrong. you made 2 mistakes here. i have never read anywhere that Satoshi claimed bitcoin is to "replace" anything. and he never claimed to have created a "perfect" coin. these two are your own assumptions.

We, people, buy bitcoins from miners because they are the only ones that can provide us their rewarded bitcoins.

wrong. you buy bitcoin from someone else who has bought bitcoin before you. currently there is 18 million bitcoins in circulation while miners only produce 900 bitcoin per day.

Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$

miners were capable of covering their cost when they were making $0 for mining a block, they were also capable of doing it when they were making ~$50 per block, $200, and finally $15,000 per block. today they are earning nearly $70,000 per block.
you can't possibly make this claim.

[bitmover]

Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day. Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$

So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.

Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.

No.

Mining difficult adjusts itself to the hasrate.

If miners leave, it will be cheaper to mine so it will always be profitable. If miners leave it will become cheaper to mine a block, if miners join again, it will become expensive again.

Perfect system

[Fundamentals Of]

There are so many things Satoshi didn't think of. Satoshi was not perfect. Satoshi was not Nostradamus. Satoshi didn't create a coin that is so perfect you cannot make any improvement to it anymore. But Satoshi was definitely right about mining while you are definitely wrong to assume that mining is only good if the price goes up.
 

[Reid]

You really think he don't know that?
Once it got value he took off. He knew his job was done and it will all depend on us.

About the mining thing though. I understand only a little about it.
First the difficulty is high because there is a lot of miners out there.
If they all yield then new miners will come. Guess how much the difficulty will be? 

[Jonyshake71]

Perhaps satoshi thought to start a new technology in the world and so he wanted to replace bitcoin with fiat 
But can't agree with those reasons that you have mentioned about miners. Miners can easily raise theirs minning fees even btc goes down below at 1000$

[BlackHatCoiner]

Now that I read the replies, I admit I was so wrong about mining.

@pooya87, yes, Satoshi didn't never say these things. I just believe he did say them due to this:

[stompix]

Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day.

Tx fees over the last 10 blocks:

630810   1.20075488
630809   0.97858807
630808   1.54706548
630807   1.65427222
630806   1.74193119
630805   0.06098868
630804   0.55885389
630803   1.23086252
630802   1.46149062
630801   1.79528729

Does this answer your troubles?

Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.

Mining is always a thing of costs.
If the reward is 1 mil$ a day, miners will be able to spend half a million on electricity.
If the reward is 100k$ they won't be able so they will mine with less gear, spending only 50k$.

Miners don't decide the price, the price decides what miners do.
Think of the oil industry, it's the same, the price goes below 20$ wells are shut, the price goes above 100$ everyone is drililing.

[Exolix]

There are so many things Satoshi didn't think of. Satoshi was not perfect. Satoshi was not Nostradamus. Satoshi didn't create a coin that is so perfect you cannot make any improvement to it anymore. But Satoshi was definitely right about mining while you are definitely wrong to assume that mining is only good if the price goes up.
 

Right.It’s hard to say what Satoshi was thinking or not thinking. Surely some unknown variables remained in his plan. But if miners and bitcoin still exist, then these variables cannot have a strong impact.

[vycl87]

If price goes up, there will be good and bad things too. I think bad things will be more. I don't know what happened in the previous halving but surely due to demand and supply many sold their bitcoins and many miners sold/got rid of their equipment.

Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day. Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$

So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.

Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.

But if price will rise then we should all go and buy a bitcoin right now? Hmm? I think this is a paradox.

Umm... BlackHatCoiner, why that title?
Well I believe that Satoshi hadn't thought that many would see bitcoin as an investment and not as a coin, and that mining will not be beneficial except if price goes up. But if price goes up then we should all go and by one BTC right now, but if we all go and buy one then price will go down and miners will not afford it. And it seems like a circle to me.

I find very likely bitcoin price to get increased over time. But shhh, i don't want anyone to find it out  

Your thoughts, correct me if you think I was somewhere wrong.

There is something interesting here. Although you know so much about Bitcoin, you said you didn't know what happened during the previous halving.

Anyway, you can see what's happening before;

In general, it seems that there is a share of accuracy in your evaluations. Until mining rewards are over, Bitcoin awareness needs to increase even more. Or there must be something different that will attract people's attention.
But there is something you missed. All your evaluations are based on today's conditions. In other words, factors such as higher performance and cheaper state of mining equipment in the future are not in your theory. While evaluating here, we cannot act with the principle of "ceteris paribus" from an economic point of view. So when we say other conditions are fixed, it is very likely that the predictions will be wrong for the future.

[BlackHatCoiner]

With the image you just posted I can see that on each halving, price change less percent. Am I wrong?

[jabavi01]

Thank you

[Leviathan.007]

You did't consider about a few things after the 2136.
We all know every day miners should upgrade their devices. if they won't will have to leave the mining world. That's why after technological advancement in the world miners will get some better and more powerful devices with cheaper price and lower electricity cost.
Considering all these, mining bitcoin is always profitable for miners and yes they would be happy even for lower block reward because they will get more powerful devices.

[Kakmakr]

Also remember that some very large businesses have been built around Bitcoin and they have invested millions into these businesses. They need Bitcoin to succeed for them to make a profit. These businesses will invest in Mining equipment to sustain their businesses and/or invest in large mining farms to help the Bitcoin network.

Also remember that the Mining/Block reward are not the only reward that miners are competing for, there are also the transaction fees and on the Lightning network there are also fees.    Satoshi Nakamoto did think of all these things and the whole Bitcoin protocol was developed to balance everything on the network.     

[tbterryboy]

Well I believe that Satoshi hadn't thought that many would see bitcoin as an investment and not as a coin, and that mining will not be beneficial except if price goes up. But if price goes up then we should all go and by one BTC right now, but if we all go and buy one then price will go down and miners will not afford it. And it seems like a circle to me.

Everything in our life, works in cyclic manner; one triggers other and the last one triggers again the first one. Dependency. One simple example, how gold gets its value or trees are causing more rain and rain supports growth of trees.

I find very likely bitcoin price to get increased over time. But shhh, i don't want anyone to find it out

No, bitcoin has attracted 90% its adopters just because of "investment property". Limited supply and halving are explicit characteristics for anyone to get convinced about its future high value. You know one thing, when bitcoin was listed on an exchange for the first time, it value was decided by the cost required to mine it. So, mining (basically mining difficulties) is there to decide the value of bitcoins. When more people compete to mine bitcoins then bitcoin will value more and this is what has been happening in last 10+ years in bitcoin ecosystem.

Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.

Yes, one satoshi may value some $10 or even $100 and one more thing we must need to consider here: blocks may accommodate more number of bitcoins hence more fees which may exceed 50 BTC (same to era of the first block rewards) also when summing up.

[DoublerHunter]

Everything in our life, works in cyclic manner; one triggers other and the last one triggers again the first one. Dependency. One simple example, how gold gets its value or trees are causing more rain and rain supports growth of trees.

^ Definitely right, Satoshi has thought of this and informed us about the mining difficulty back then. There might some miners who will end or stop mining but rest assure there will still be miners who can afford mining despite the cost for the price will definitely go up. For 2136 definitely I am no longer alive by then but we cannot predict what will happen in the future either bitcoin will survive or bitcoin will fail which I really hope not and for now what I am holding on is that I can see progress in global acceptance for bitcoin.

[Sanugarid]

Everything in our life, works in cyclic manner; one triggers other and the last one triggers again the first one. Dependency. One simple example, how gold gets its value or trees are causing more rain and rain supports growth of trees.

^ Definitely right, Satoshi has thought of this and informed us about the mining difficulty back then. There might some miners who will end or stop mining but rest assure there will still be miners who can afford mining despite the cost for the price will definitely go up. For 2136 definitely I am no longer alive by then but we cannot predict what will happen in the future either bitcoin will survive or bitcoin will fail which I really hope not and for now what I am holding on is that I can see progress in global acceptance for bitcoin.

If we take consideration of what is only available during satoshi's time on creating the bitcoin, there will be things that he might not be predicted, he might be thinking that bitcoin will just be for rich people by now, well it's not because of the smartphone that we have. We are all dead by the time that the last bitcoin block will be mined, we are even in edge of mass extinction now because of the virus lol.

[BlackHatCoiner]

If we take consideration of what is only available during satoshi's time on creating the bitcoin, there will be things that he might not be predicted, he might be thinking that bitcoin will just be for rich people by now, well it's not because of the smartphone that we have. We are all dead by the time that the last bitcoin block will be mined, we are even in edge of mass extinction now because of the virus lol.

Just a correction. There will be no last block. At least it won't be likely to happen in the next century. You mean the last non-zero reward.

Yes I do agree that Satoshi hadn't thought of this massive use by people.

[barbiecover]

Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day. Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$

2009, 50 coins per block and it costed nothing
today 6.25 and it costs 9k per coin

imo miner of future will be happy even after 50 coins per day

[XCANA]

He satoshi never created the said bitcoin to be a currency rather to be a method of payment digitally. This has been spotted out recently when the issue of "purpose of Bitcoin came into play". The world or the community of Bitcoin has turned through speculation to make the bitcoin a currency instead of it to be payment method as it was created. Bitcoin is an investment platform and a payment method and not as a currency as many have been speculated.

[bitbunnny]

Even Satoshi couldn't predict everything about Bitcoin. He had idea and vision about Bitcoin, what he would like to achieve but on the other hand full development and which way the Bitcoin users will think he couldn't know.
Also, I beleive that in his best prediction he couldn't guess that Bitcoin will achieve that much and that so many people will actually embrace it. As well as no one of us can't tell how far Bitcoin will go in five years or so.

[romeojasmin13]

Satoshi couldn't think of all aspects of Bitcoin's future and he had no intention to create Bitcoin for replacing all form of money. Bitcoin scarcity makes it worthy, so miners are interested in it and won't leave one day. No one can't guess what happens in a century. It's too early to draw any conclusions about the future of system after the last block will be mined.

[j2002ba2]

Recently we had our 3rd halving, cutting the bitcoins per block to 6.25

If price goes up, there will be good and bad things too. I think bad things will be more. I don't know what happened in the previous halving but surely due to demand and supply many sold their bitcoins and many miners sold/got rid of their equipment.

Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day. Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$

Miners collect also fees. Today they collected ~120BTC in fees.

[Velkro]

I'm fairly certain that Satoshi has considered this. This is why the mining difficulty exists. Some miners shut down their machines, mining difficulty will drop, hence more opportunities for other miners.

As long as there's profit to be made, there will be miners.

Exactly this. It was predicted and protections are in place since begining.
Difficulty will adjust to mining power and mining power will adjust to profitability.
So its closed circle, no loop-holes there to take advantage of.

[gundala]

We can all agree that Satoshi wanted to create the coin that will replace banks and their trust abuse. If he wanted to create the perfect coin, he might have failed.
~

No, I don't agree with this. I have never read that BTC was made to replace a bank, no. Even though BTC has better technology and systems, there are a number of points related to legality and security guaranteed by the government making banks quite "safe". BTC can be a good payment alternative, many are adopting BTC now, but they cannot match the existence of fiat and e-money. Most people also prefer to use it as an investment tool and commodity trading, it is more effective than wasting it as a means of payment that we can still do well using fiat.

[yazher]

Bitcoin has become an investment at first when it first created. then after the pizza thing happened, it became coins that will lead to the means of payment whoever wants to implement it in their stores. take a look at what happened, you can see that bitcoin became one of the top currency of the world and used by many big companies as a means of payment and they don't really care if the price will change like roller coaster they still accepting it till now. the good thing is, there are many of them who adopt this method as we are posting some replies to this thread.

[hermawan9416]

No one can predict everything. In addition, I think that in the future we will have a new more perfect type of cryptocurrency.

[Ucy]

Is there any coin in the world that people don't invest in? I think big investment in fiat currencies also contribute to their value, so why not Bitcoin also?

I think he did what was feasible in his days. He probably imitated scarce resource like gold to add to the growth of Bitcoin price/value via deflation.
I guess light PoW that spreads rewards amongst many unique participants on multi-purpose devices like laptops within a robust Bitcoin ecosystem would have been better.  There should be reasonable or good amount of control that a decentralized Bitcoin/crypto community should have over its economy to keep it moving as intended. The control shouldn't come from outside the decentralized system especially via centralized systems.

[FanatMonet]

The price of Bitcoin should rise, otherwise mining will become unprofitable, and not needed by the vast majority of those who mine it now. A decrease in the number of miners can again lead to the problem of network congestion, when transactions have to pay huge amounts.

[odolvlobo]

The price of Bitcoin should rise, otherwise mining will become unprofitable, and not needed by the vast majority of those who mine it now. A decrease in the number of miners can again lead to the problem of network congestion, when transactions have to pay huge amounts.

I recommend that you read more and post less. Your beliefs have already been addressed here and have been shown to be wrong or at best unsupported.

[Twinkledoe]

Is there any coin in the world that people don't invest in? I think big investment in fiat currencies also contribute to their value, so why not Bitcoin also?

I think he did what was feasible in his days. He probably imitated scarce resource like gold to add to the growth of Bitcoin price/value via deflation.
I guess light PoW that spreads rewards amongst many unique participants on multi-purpose devices like laptops within a robust Bitcoin ecosystem would have been better.  There should be reasonable or good amount of control that a decentralized Bitcoin/crypto community should have over its economy to keep it moving as intended. The control shouldn't come from outside the decentralized system especially via centralized systems.

Also, even if Satoshi did not think of many things at that time, we should be grateful that he created bitcoin. If not for him, we are not here discussing all the things about crypto and bitcoin, right? That alone will make you grateful to know and learn about the existence of bitcoin.

[Reatim]

No one can predict everything. In addition, I think that in the future we will have a new more perfect type of cryptocurrency.

Nothing is perfect thats the best way to say here,and besides even that there is something Satoshi did not anticipate means we are failure because look how Bitcoin is doing now?

is there anything that we can hate about this crypto if we already knew how this works and what this can help us?
the problem here is people keep on looking about the mistakes and what have not done but don't even bother to say thanks about the accomplishments .

[BlackHatCoiner]

Also, even if Satoshi did not think of many things at that time, we should be grateful that he created bitcoin. If not for him, we are not here discussing all the things about crypto and bitcoin, right? That alone will make you grateful to know and learn about the existence of bitcoin.

Probably, yeah. I don't think anyone would have been interested in hashcash or ever thought of a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.

Bitcoin learnt me that there are things our mind can't catch easily, but still there are people who create them.

[TheGreatPython]

You may be right about what you have said, but I am not going to blame him for that. I guess there are things he never knew then and if he's still around now he would wish that he did know about them. But I don't think that it's late, there's still time for everything to get better.

The devs that are in charge now can still take over and complete the job by correcting the things they think is not right. And moreover, I think he was very much aware that Bitcoin is going to be volatile, so he was sure that people are going to see Bitcoin more as an investment, since there is really nothing backing it up except the trust we have in it.