There's something Satoshi didn't think of.

[BlackHatCoiner]

We can all agree that Satoshi wanted to create the coin that will replace banks and their trust abuse. If he wanted to create the perfect coin, he might have failed.

We, people, buy bitcoins from miners because they are the only ones that can provide us their rewarded bitcoins. Then we make exchanges with each other. There's a problem with the halving tho.

Recently we had our 3rd halving, cutting the bitcoins per block to 6.25

If price goes up, there will be good and bad things too. I think bad things will be more. I don't know what happened in the previous halving but surely due to demand and supply many sold their bitcoins and many miners sold/got rid of their equipment.

Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day. Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$

So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.

Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.

But if price will rise then we should all go and buy a bitcoin right now? Hmm? I think this is a paradox.

Umm... BlackHatCoiner, why that title?
Well I believe that Satoshi hadn't thought that many would see bitcoin as an investment and not as a coin, and that mining will not be beneficial except if price goes up. But if price goes up then we should all go and by one BTC right now, but if we all go and buy one then price will go down and miners will not afford it. And it seems like a circle to me.

I find very likely bitcoin price to get increased over time. But shhh, i don't want anyone to find it out  

Your thoughts, correct me if you think I was somewhere wrong.

[1714046423]

1714046423

[arbiter5]

I'm fairly certain that Satoshi has considered this. This is why the mining difficulty exists. Some miners shut down their machines, mining difficulty will drop, hence more opportunities for other miners.

As long as there's profit to be made, there will be miners.

As for year 2136, it's fair to assume that if there aren't enough transactions for miners to profit from, we could probably say that Bitcoin has failed.

A quote from Satoshi himself: "I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume".

We could apply the same quote for 100+ years from now.

[odolvlobo]

...
So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.
...

There is no issue. There will always be miners. Don't forget that people were mining bitcoins when the block reward was worth less than $1.

The idea that all miners will stop mining if the price is too low or the difficulty is too high is naive. No matter what the price is or what the difficulty is, some miners can make a profit and some can't.

[Tipstar]

I would like to think satoshi planned most of it. Bitcoin was not intended to be a currency but an investment. Satoshi planned it all from the start, all of his holding and disappearing are linked to inflationary nature of bitcoin. As of the future, the number of transaction may decrease but that necessarily won't decrease the price. The fees would be high to sustain mining.

[seoincorporation]

I wouldn't say satoshi didn't think about that, remember this quote:

Right.  Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating.  In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for mining nodes.   I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

His bet was a go big or go home...

[salamat700]

...
So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.
...

There is no issue. There will always be miners. Don't forget that people were mining bitcoins when the block reward was worth less than $1.

The idea that all miners will stop mining if the price is too low or the difficulty is too high is naive. No matter what the price is or what the difficulty is, some miners can make a profit and some can't.

When there will be less miners then those who are left will get benefited. What is amazing here is that this can be a microcosm of the bigger business environment where the law on supply and demand are carried out. In the next many decades, I am sure that mining Bitcoin can still be profitable but of course things can be more difficult so those who are creative enough are expected to survive and flourish while those who are not can be out of business.

[pooya87]

We can all agree that Satoshi wanted to create the coin that will replace banks and their trust abuse. If he wanted to create the perfect coin, he might have failed.

wrong. you made 2 mistakes here. i have never read anywhere that Satoshi claimed bitcoin is to "replace" anything. and he never claimed to have created a "perfect" coin. these two are your own assumptions.

We, people, buy bitcoins from miners because they are the only ones that can provide us their rewarded bitcoins.

wrong. you buy bitcoin from someone else who has bought bitcoin before you. currently there is 18 million bitcoins in circulation while miners only produce 900 bitcoin per day.

Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$

miners were capable of covering their cost when they were making $0 for mining a block, they were also capable of doing it when they were making ~$50 per block, $200, and finally $15,000 per block. today they are earning nearly $70,000 per block.
you can't possibly make this claim.

[bitmover]

Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day. Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$

So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.

Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.

No.

Mining difficult adjusts itself to the hasrate.

If miners leave, it will be cheaper to mine so it will always be profitable. If miners leave it will become cheaper to mine a block, if miners join again, it will become expensive again.

Perfect system

[Fundamentals Of]

There are so many things Satoshi didn't think of. Satoshi was not perfect. Satoshi was not Nostradamus. Satoshi didn't create a coin that is so perfect you cannot make any improvement to it anymore. But Satoshi was definitely right about mining while you are definitely wrong to assume that mining is only good if the price goes up.
 

[Reid]

You really think he don't know that?
Once it got value he took off. He knew his job was done and it will all depend on us.

About the mining thing though. I understand only a little about it.
First the difficulty is high because there is a lot of miners out there.
If they all yield then new miners will come. Guess how much the difficulty will be? 

[Jonyshake71]

Perhaps satoshi thought to start a new technology in the world and so he wanted to replace bitcoin with fiat 
But can't agree with those reasons that you have mentioned about miners. Miners can easily raise theirs minning fees even btc goes down below at 1000$

[BlackHatCoiner]

Now that I read the replies, I admit I was so wrong about mining.

@pooya87, yes, Satoshi didn't never say these things. I just believe he did say them due to this:

[stompix]

Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day.

Tx fees over the last 10 blocks:

630810   1.20075488
630809   0.97858807
630808   1.54706548
630807   1.65427222
630806   1.74193119
630805   0.06098868
630804   0.55885389
630803   1.23086252
630802   1.46149062
630801   1.79528729

Does this answer your troubles?

Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.

Mining is always a thing of costs.
If the reward is 1 mil$ a day, miners will be able to spend half a million on electricity.
If the reward is 100k$ they won't be able so they will mine with less gear, spending only 50k$.

Miners don't decide the price, the price decides what miners do.
Think of the oil industry, it's the same, the price goes below 20$ wells are shut, the price goes above 100$ everyone is drililing.

[Exolix]

There are so many things Satoshi didn't think of. Satoshi was not perfect. Satoshi was not Nostradamus. Satoshi didn't create a coin that is so perfect you cannot make any improvement to it anymore. But Satoshi was definitely right about mining while you are definitely wrong to assume that mining is only good if the price goes up.
 

Right.It’s hard to say what Satoshi was thinking or not thinking. Surely some unknown variables remained in his plan. But if miners and bitcoin still exist, then these variables cannot have a strong impact.

[vycl87]

If price goes up, there will be good and bad things too. I think bad things will be more. I don't know what happened in the previous halving but surely due to demand and supply many sold their bitcoins and many miners sold/got rid of their equipment.

Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day. Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$

So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.

Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.

But if price will rise then we should all go and buy a bitcoin right now? Hmm? I think this is a paradox.

Umm... BlackHatCoiner, why that title?
Well I believe that Satoshi hadn't thought that many would see bitcoin as an investment and not as a coin, and that mining will not be beneficial except if price goes up. But if price goes up then we should all go and by one BTC right now, but if we all go and buy one then price will go down and miners will not afford it. And it seems like a circle to me.

I find very likely bitcoin price to get increased over time. But shhh, i don't want anyone to find it out  

Your thoughts, correct me if you think I was somewhere wrong.

There is something interesting here. Although you know so much about Bitcoin, you said you didn't know what happened during the previous halving.

Anyway, you can see what's happening before;

In general, it seems that there is a share of accuracy in your evaluations. Until mining rewards are over, Bitcoin awareness needs to increase even more. Or there must be something different that will attract people's attention.
But there is something you missed. All your evaluations are based on today's conditions. In other words, factors such as higher performance and cheaper state of mining equipment in the future are not in your theory. While evaluating here, we cannot act with the principle of "ceteris paribus" from an economic point of view. So when we say other conditions are fixed, it is very likely that the predictions will be wrong for the future.

[BlackHatCoiner]

With the image you just posted I can see that on each halving, price change less percent. Am I wrong?

[jabavi01]

Thank you

[Leviathan.007]

You did't consider about a few things after the 2136.
We all know every day miners should upgrade their devices. if they won't will have to leave the mining world. That's why after technological advancement in the world miners will get some better and more powerful devices with cheaper price and lower electricity cost.
Considering all these, mining bitcoin is always profitable for miners and yes they would be happy even for lower block reward because they will get more powerful devices.

[Kakmakr]

Also remember that some very large businesses have been built around Bitcoin and they have invested millions into these businesses. They need Bitcoin to succeed for them to make a profit. These businesses will invest in Mining equipment to sustain their businesses and/or invest in large mining farms to help the Bitcoin network.

Also remember that the Mining/Block reward are not the only reward that miners are competing for, there are also the transaction fees and on the Lightning network there are also fees.    Satoshi Nakamoto did think of all these things and the whole Bitcoin protocol was developed to balance everything on the network.     

[tbterryboy]

Well I believe that Satoshi hadn't thought that many would see bitcoin as an investment and not as a coin, and that mining will not be beneficial except if price goes up. But if price goes up then we should all go and by one BTC right now, but if we all go and buy one then price will go down and miners will not afford it. And it seems like a circle to me.

Everything in our life, works in cyclic manner; one triggers other and the last one triggers again the first one. Dependency. One simple example, how gold gets its value or trees are causing more rain and rain supports growth of trees.

I find very likely bitcoin price to get increased over time. But shhh, i don't want anyone to find it out

No, bitcoin has attracted 90% its adopters just because of "investment property". Limited supply and halving are explicit characteristics for anyone to get convinced about its future high value. You know one thing, when bitcoin was listed on an exchange for the first time, it value was decided by the cost required to mine it. So, mining (basically mining difficulties) is there to decide the value of bitcoins. When more people compete to mine bitcoins then bitcoin will value more and this is what has been happening in last 10+ years in bitcoin ecosystem.

Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.

Yes, one satoshi may value some $10 or even $100 and one more thing we must need to consider here: blocks may accommodate more number of bitcoins hence more fees which may exceed 50 BTC (same to era of the first block rewards) also when summing up.