Trump to lose popular vote and the elections - Election Model predicts.

[Juggy777]

As Trump is busy battling the virus he has another big headache to deal with as his vote bank of employed people is shifting away from him, and due to this a new election model has predicted that he’ll loose the upcoming elections.

I know many of you will ask why we should trust the findings of this election model, then the answer is simple it’s because of their past record where they have correctly predicted the election results.

Lastly in my personal opinion it’ll be a tight race, but I’m not giving up on him as I yet feel that he’ll be able to pull off a victory, but what about you’ll do you yet believe in him or no?.

As a result of the economy suffering from the coronavirus pandemic, a new election model forecasts President Donald Trump will lose the popular vote in November.

"An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6% below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November," Oxford Economics said on Wednesday, based on the firm’s state-based and national election models.

Before the coronavirus, Oxford Economics, which has a strong track record of predicting presidential elections, had forecast last fall that Trump would win 55 percent of the popular vote. In April, as the coronavirus spread in the U.S., according to The Washington Post, it predicted that Trump would take only 43 percent of the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election.

Source:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-will-lose-popular-vote-2020-election-election-model-predicts-n1211876

[1714674484]

1714674484

[yeosaga]

It will not even be a contest. It will be China candidate vs America candidate, who do you think Americans want?

[Vod]

It will not even be a contest. It will be China candidate vs America candidate, who do you think Americans want?

I want prosperity, so I think we want a Chinese leader.

[TECSHARE]

It will not even be a contest. It will be China candidate vs America candidate, who do you think Americans want?

I want prosperity, so I think we want a Chinese leader.

Who gives a fuck what you want you canuk cunt. You have no say in the matter. If you are lucky you can have your organs harvested in a CCP concentration camp for that prosperity.

[Vod]

Who gives a fuck what you want you canuk cunt. You have no say in the matter. if you are lucky you can have your organs harvested in a CCP concentration camp for that prosperity.

He asked what Americans want, I answered.   Untie your panties. 

[Gyfts]

To add to this post, Fox News released a poll recently and it's shedding light on American's perceptions of the country after coronavirus. It is devastating for the Trump team, to say the least - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-more-trusted-on-coronavirus-trump-on-economy

Summary of poll conducted of registered voters -

• 88% are concerned about coronavirus spending.
• 78% are worried about the economy.
• An 11% drop in positive perception of the economy with 58% viewing the economy poorly.
• Biden leads Trump 48% to 40% in a General Election match up among registered voters
• Trump is losing in job approval ratings with independents by 26%. (60-34)
• Trump leads men by 8 points but loses women by 25% in job approval ratings
• Biden leads in independents 40-27% in a general election match up

The economy needs to recover for Trump to have a realistic shot at reelection. Prior to coronavirus, I think most Americans were okay with Trump antics because the U.S. economy, stock market, jobs numbers, ect. were doing great. Now that the economy is sunk, what's Trump's reelection message? I don't think the Trump campaign has much on defense and will most likely need to get by on attacking Joe Biden instead of defending their own record. Trump's economic policy was great prior to the virus, but it's hard to make the case to voters to look at the past. Democrats have clear lines of attack against the economy, Trump's coronavirus response, and maybe general corruption allegations so their strategy is already set in place. I just don't think Biden is the guy to deliver on these attacks.

[Lunatic_Pandora]

To add to this post, Fox News released a poll recently and it's shedding light on American's perceptions of the country after coronavirus. It is devastating for the Trump team, to say the least - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-more-trusted-on-coronavirus-trump-on-economy

Summary of poll conducted of registered voters -

• 88% are concerned about coronavirus spending.
• 78% are worried about the economy.
• An 11% drop in positive perception of the economy with 58% viewing the economy poorly.
• Biden leads Trump 48% to 40% in a General Election match up among registered voters
• Trump is losing in job approval ratings with independents by 26%. (60-34)
• Trump leads men by 8 points but loses women by 25% in job approval ratings
• Biden leads in independents 40-27% in a general election match up

The economy needs to recover for Trump to have a realistic shot at reelection. Prior to coronavirus, I think most Americans were okay with Trump antics because the U.S. economy, stock market, jobs numbers, ect. were doing great. Now that the economy is sunk, what's Trump's reelection message? I don't think the Trump campaign has much on defense and will most likely need to get by on attacking Joe Biden instead of defending their own record. Trump's economic policy was great prior to the virus, but it's hard to make the case to voters to look at the past. Democrats have clear lines of attack against the economy, Trump's coronavirus response, and maybe general corruption allegations so their strategy is already set in place. I just don't think Biden is the guy to deliver on these attacks.

This is exactly what I tell people these days - 6 months ago, Trump had killer numbers in stocks, new jobs and unemployment. Now? He has 38m unemployed, the stock market went for a huge ride to Obama era numbers and then recovered a bit but nowhere close to ATH, incredibly poor handling of the whole corona virus mess. People this election will be driven by hopelessness and unemployment and if Biden even mention something about a federal job guarantee, which I heard was one of his cards, the game will probably be over for trump.

[antonytar81]

this was to be expected

[squatz1]

To add to this post, Fox News released a poll recently and it's shedding light on American's perceptions of the country after coronavirus. It is devastating for the Trump team, to say the least - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-more-trusted-on-coronavirus-trump-on-economy

Summary of poll conducted of registered voters -

• 88% are concerned about coronavirus spending.
• 78% are worried about the economy.
• An 11% drop in positive perception of the economy with 58% viewing the economy poorly.
• Biden leads Trump 48% to 40% in a General Election match up among registered voters
• Trump is losing in job approval ratings with independents by 26%. (60-34)
• Trump leads men by 8 points but loses women by 25% in job approval ratings
• Biden leads in independents 40-27% in a general election match up

The economy needs to recover for Trump to have a realistic shot at reelection. Prior to coronavirus, I think most Americans were okay with Trump antics because the U.S. economy, stock market, jobs numbers, ect. were doing great. Now that the economy is sunk, what's Trump's reelection message? I don't think the Trump campaign has much on defense and will most likely need to get by on attacking Joe Biden instead of defending their own record. Trump's economic policy was great prior to the virus, but it's hard to make the case to voters to look at the past. Democrats have clear lines of attack against the economy, Trump's coronavirus response, and maybe general corruption allegations so their strategy is already set in place. I just don't think Biden is the guy to deliver on these attacks.

100% the economy has to recover and be booming again for Trump to have a shot at reelection. That was his way of convincing moderates who may not have liked his rhetoric, that he was a good choice to be elected and now reelected. That was the great group of people known as the 401k votes (who are probably still pretty happy right now tbh)

Trump also needs to show old people that he's doing a good job on his Coronavirus response. Poll numbers show that they REALLY haven't been happy with the response. They're the ones that are most at risk of dying, and they're the ones that vote the most, if you lose that BLOC you lose the election.

Trump is in an interesting time that I don't think many could have pulled themself out of. All of these are outside forces (regarding corona, economy, etc) that would bring any administration and reelection bid to its knees.

Though as I've said time and time again, we have a LONG time until November and we have debates to look forward too. Presidential elections aren't decided by sheer pop vote, they're decided by the EC. If Trump plays the EC right, then he could win the EC by not much but lose the pop vote by more then he did last time.

Only time will tell.

[Spendulus]

As Trump is busy battling the virus he has another big headache to deal with as his vote bank of employed people is shifting away from him, and due to this a new election model has predicted that he’ll loose the upcoming elections.

I know many of you will ask why we should trust the findings of this election model...

More lying liars that say we should trust them?

[coins4commies]

The election would be a landslide if it happened today.  Theres still a lot that can happen in 4 months as people learn what Biden really is. 

[Juggy777]

The election would be a landslide if it happened today.  Theres still a lot that can happen in 4 months as people learn what Biden really is.  

@coins4commies yea if elections were held now then Democrats would definitely win by a huge margin, but as you have rightly said that anything can happen in the next 4 months, so let’s wait and watch if Trump can win back his lost supporters. Also I had raised this point in a different thread that Trump needs to back down, and put Biden in the spot light only then will Biden start to make mistakes, which Trump and his team can capitalise on in the run up to the elections.

Source:

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/06/11/meet-our-us-2020-election-forecasting-model

@coinfinger that’s a smart move as I too feel that Trump will win, once he realises that he needs to stop coming out in the media and shift the limelight on Biden. It’s pertinent to note that Biden has done nothing spectacular to take the lead, and he’s locked himself away and he’s only earning this lead because of Trumps errors. However once Biden is forced to come out on the stage he’ll loose the lead, by making mistakes especially like the one where he said black people are not black if they vote for Trump.

Sources:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjones/2020/06/21/trump-rally-sees-joe-bidens-presidental-odds-improve-presidential-election-betting-update/#15cbaa687da8

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/28/heres-why-black-americans-were-mad-bidens-comment-even-if-theyd-say-same-thing-themselves/

[Spendulus]

The election would be a landslide if it happened today.  Theres still a lot that can happen in 4 months as people learn what Biden really is. 

Lying charts from the lying liars?

[BADecker]

Everything in the world is in God's hands. And Trump has done more than any president to move things back toward God.

We don't deserve Trump and the good he has done. Maybe God will take him from us. But more than likely God will continue to use Trump for more good.

[madnessteat]

Trump has always been a bone in the throat for the Democrats and has obstructed them because his true goal is to make America great again. The coronavirus epidemic has played a very important role in reducing the number of voices supporting Trump.

In my opinion, the current situation with managed chaos in many states of America is aimed at further reducing the level of trust in Trump. 

Don't you think this is all Democrats' tricks? 

[JohnBitCo]

Everything in the world is in God's hands. And Trump has done more than any president to move things back toward God.

We don't deserve Trump and the good he has done. Maybe God will take him from us. But more than likely God will continue to use Trump for more good.

I don't care who wins the US election, I only want the super powers like USA, china to remain peaceful and help in the betterment of other underdeveloped countries. Statements like these like the one from Cohen below, does not look the situation is not normal at all. I wonder what will be the outcome of this election.

“Given my experience working for Mr. Trump,” Cohen said, “I fear that if he loses in 2020, that there will never be a peaceful transition of power.”

[sirazimuth]

.....

Dude , I don't normally complain about folks never being able to differentiate between "lose" and "loose" on these boards as it seems useless.
But seeing how its in the thread title you may want to fix it, just sayin....

Re: Trump to lose popular vote and the elections - Election Model predicts. <----FTFY

[squatz1]

.....

Dude , I don't normally complain about folks never being able to differentiate between "lose" and "loose" on these boards as it seems useless.
But seeing how its in the thread title you may want to fix it, just sayin....

Re: Trump to lose popular vote and the elections - Election Model predicts. <----FTFY

Pretty common online for some reason, unsure on why don't see this difference pretty quickly. Loose and lose just sound so different as well.

But in regards to Trump: I personally think that the Trump will lose the popular vote again, unsure on the margin, but I do think that he will win the EC by a closer margin then the 2016 Clinton win.

That's just my guess, and this far out even polls are as close to my guesses (and all of ours)

[BADecker]

Models are BS, except if you are really looking for the truth. Like public surveys, to find out what people think about something, they can be twisted to say anything the model-people/survey-people want them to say.

Consider. Neil Ferguson in Britain made up a model that said 500,000 people would die in Britain from Covid. The next day he dropped the amount of deaths to, what was it, 60,000. And we still haven't gotten the computer program out of him that he used.

How do you know if the model in question is a true model, or if it is being used to promote votes one way or another? Forget the model. Vote your conscience.

[Barnabe]

Models are BS, except if you are really looking for the truth. Like public surveys, to find out what people think about something, they can be twisted to say anything the model-people/survey-people want them to say.

Consider. Neil Ferguson in Britain made up a model that said 500,000 people would die in Britain from Covid. The next day he dropped the amount of deaths to, what was it, 60,000. And we still haven't gotten the computer program out of him that he used.

How do you know if the model in question is a true model, or if it is being used to promote votes one way or another? Forget the model. Vote your conscience.

+1 the same models were predicting unanimously clinton in 2016. They have proven not to be reliable, I don't know why some people still give them credit...