Moores law started to stagnate in 2012 with the advent of gpus....
GPUs are developed purely with raw FLOP computation in mind. Its chipset leans heavily towards specialization. The hardware demands of CPUs are developed as a jack of all trades. Its profile encompasses a number of different areas which are more geared towards flexibility than raw computation. The 2012 slowdown could partly represent differences in design paradigm which became more evident post GPU decoupling.
There are innovations arriving like AI based chip design which carry a potential to speed up moore's law over time. I think it could go either way. We could see a slow down or the opposite.
A continuation of moore's law guarantees mining feasibility and profitability over the long term. As long as moore's law continues, bitcoin HODL will as well.
What is the connection between the two? How does improving mining efficiency equate to a HODL effect, or increasing BTC price, or whatever the argument is?
In your opinion, what happens to Bitcoin if Moore's law fails?
I think its fair to say dollar cost per watt could be one of the main factors determining whether solar panels are an attractive investment for homeowners. This observation could translate to crypto in terms of dollar cost per hash. With a continuation of moore's law guaranteeing significant improvement over time.
Its like a 100 watt solar panel costing $100 today. Knowing that in 2 years the silicon density will double. Allowing you to buy a 200 watt solar panel for $100. Thanks to moore's law. Significantly improving performance per dollar, guarantees mining is consistently becoming more cost effective and attractive over time. Although mining difficulty, of course, is a big factor. Rewards halving is less of a factor as it remains a static constant for years after being invoked.
That's how I see it anyway. I'm constantly surprised this isn't a bigger discussion topic in crypto land.