A shorting paradise: next target is 5.5k

[Bossian]

Analysis made with traditional Elliott wave theory, we failed again to break 10.5k, worst news (for bulls) is we didn't even get close and this time got rejected at 10.1k which creates another lower high compared to February 2020.

Now the downtrend is still intact, despite the recent attempt to break a big resistance (descending triangle). We can safely say the bulls are now either selling or placed in the recovery position, praying it is just a bad dream...





Therefore 5.5k looks obvious, with a safe estimate date to be achieved around July-August this year.

5.5k is a quite conservative target I believe. The most ambitious traders will aim at 3.5k (lower low compared to March 2020). And because it needs to be done, Stop Loss set @ 10.8k  


At the time of this topic, Bitcoin is trading around 8.95k, it is very possible we see a bounce back to 9.4k, it shouldn't bounce higher than that, in any case a bounce shorter than 9.8k will confirm the downtrend.


Best of luck everyone  

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[Bossian]

Short comment regarding the 50 bitcoin mined in 2009 and sold a few days ago: disappointed bulls will always try to find a logic behind every dump.
Because most Youtube channels related to cryptocurrencies (mostly American) are very bullish, they tend to get very emotional and need to find a reason behind every red candle.
50 Bitcoin is not much at all, and most importantly it is peanuts for the guy who sold since he mined thousands of coins back in the day. The guy is totally free to sell 50 coins when he still has thousands in his wallet, what difference does it make?


What I find absurd is to draw an analysis based on fundamentals while there is no reason that can explain a price dropping from 20k in December 2017 to 3k in January 2019. It sounds weird to say that but never I will post an analysis based on any fundamental.


Bitcoin was not overvalued in December 2017, it was only supply and demand. It was worth 20k because of supply and demand, that's all. The halvening was irrelevant. Bitcoin's project is unbelievable, it is revolutionary, then why doesn't Bitcoin price keep rising? I mean Bitcoin is better now than it was in 2017 (faster transactions) the fundamentals are incredibly good. But the price keeps doing down, think about it. Fundamentals do not explain Bitcoin price. It is all about supply and demand. You are free to think otherwise, but personally I give zero fuck to halvenings or stuff like that.

 

[cafetools]

You are predicting an almost identical massive sell off similar to the COVID-19 scare panic dump? It will take some serious FUD for BTC to continue to drop lower than 8k.

The economy is reopening, and the bulls will be back soon.

[Leon83]

Would be insanely stupid to short a bullish asset class during a bull cycle 

[LogitechMouse]

Why is the thread self-moderated?? Afraid to be criticized??

Different analysts/chart readers have different readings when it regards to TA. My own opinion is as long as it is above the 200 daily MA, it will remain bullish.
There is nothing wrong with your readings since it is your own but the possibilities of that to happen for me is around 5-10% for some reasons.

@cafetools already said that some of the establishments have re-opened thus, the cash flow will continue again and people will receive money again from their work.

[stompix]

Short comment regarding the 50 bitcoin mined in 2009 and sold a few days ago:

Hmm, sorry but as I understood it was something like 50 bitcoins mined in 2009 being bought a few days ago
What proof do you have those coins have been sold?

Bitcoin was not overvalued in December 2017, it was only supply and demand. It was worth 20k because of supply and demand, that's all. The halvening was irrelevant. Bitcoin's project is unbelievable, it is revolutionary, then why doesn't Bitcoin price keep rising? I mean Bitcoin is better now than it was in 2017 (faster transactions) the fundamentals are incredibly good. But the price keeps doing down, think about it. Fundamentals do not explain Bitcoin price. It is all about supply and demand.

So, you're drawing some lines on a chart and you think you can project how supply and demand will evolve in the next months? Based on...? What?
50 BTC getting sold is a matter of concern but less 900 BTC mined every day are not going to influence this?  

Sometimes I wonder if we have enough paper in this world to print all the charts that have been wrong about the bitcoin price.

[Juggy777]

Analysis made with traditional Elliott wave theory, we failed again to break 10.5k, worst news (for bulls) is we didn't even get close and this time got rejected at 10.1k which creates another lower high compared to February 2020.

Now the downtrend is still intact, despite the recent attempt to break a big resistance (descending triangle). We can safely say the bulls are now either selling or placed in the recovery position, praying it is just a bad dream...

Therefore 5.5k looks obvious, with a safe estimate date to be achieved around July-August this year.

5.5k is a quite conservative target I believe. The most ambitious traders will aim at 3.5k (lower low compared to March 2020). And because it needs to be done, Stop Loss set @ 10.8k  


At the time of this topic, Bitcoin is trading around 8.95k, it is very possible we see a bounce back to 9.4k, it shouldn't bounce higher than that, in any case a bounce shorter than 9.8k will confirm the downtrend.


Best of luck everyone  

@Bossian you’re wrong as bitcoin prices was not rejected at $10k levels, bitcoin prices only crashed because of the news that Satoshi was back and he had sold his coins from his old wallet (which isn’t true/unconfirmed for now). However I’m optimistic that bitcoin prices will soon rally upwards till $9.5k levels, and then it’ll try and breach the $10k mark again, but if bitcoins fail to breach those levels then it’s quiet possible that we may see your prediction come true.

Sources:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/05/21/bitcoin-price-crashes-as-sudden-sell-off-surprises-market/#27ec36ae5202

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5249867.msg54467838#msg54467838

[buwaytress]

It is bad news for bulls on that lower high but we are forgetting that the bears have already been proven wrong on the 9k top, for over 3 weeks now. So yes disappointed bulls but bears have still to hope their 9k shorts can be saved on this dip, but they will have to contend with all those buy depths just above 9k.

5.5k may very well show up but all too soon to call now.

[exstasie]

Short comment regarding the 50 bitcoin mined in 2009 and sold a few days ago:

What proof do you have those coins have been sold?

I did a little digging and couldn't find much. Walletexplorer isn't what it used to be. A couple small transactions:

• This address belongs to Binance and was used 2 hops from the original transaction: 1JCfhYLjtw7sbt32WEP6G1MpVx86vurCLA
• This address belongs to Bitmex and was used 3 hops from the original transaction: 3CxD7wefUWHZALqPJ9eCQDjR2BYaVr8PYH

That's a whopping 6.732 BTC sent to exchanges. Who knows, maybe he was using them to go margin long too.

[stompix]

~

I did a little digging and couldn't find much. Walletexplorer isn't what it used to be. A couple small transactions:

• This address belongs to Binance and was used 2 hops from the original transaction: 1JCfhYLjtw7sbt32WEP6G1MpVx86vurCLA
• This address belongs to Bitmex and was used 3 hops from the original transaction: 3CxD7wefUWHZALqPJ9eCQDjR2BYaVr8PYH

That's a whopping 6.732 BTC sent to exchanges. Who knows, maybe he was using them to go margin long too.

First, f*** all that those who are sending dust to those addresses!  Making me scroll every time!!!
Now, chainalysis, which I never fully trust claimed that some of the coins went to Coinbase, after getting through a mixer so...Who the hell knows!!

More importantly, the biggest part of it, 40 BTC has moved only once which has lead to a lot of rumors but one at least makes sense.
A wallet recovery finally paying off, with 20% (that's usually what they charge), with the moved coins being the company claiming its share and the actual owner keeping his coins in a new address and ...waiting.

So it is possible the actual owner has not yet sold a single satoshi...yet!!!

[Jating]

I'll go with @stompix here, we don't have definitely proof that it was being sold.

The problem is people tends to jump into conclusion, and we all know that media or any person who has bad intention will spin this out of proportion as evident of the price drop. So we might see some initial drop, but I don't think it will create any more ripple effect to really push the price to 5.5. And if the 50 BTC move really freaks out many investors, we might have seen some massive drop already. But we didn't as the bulls keep fighting and wanted to recover the market and push with their narratives.

[gentlemand]

Why is the thread self-moderated?? Afraid to be criticized??

Aye.

OP appears to have been born shorting. That's a fine strategy until it's not. A real trader flips when the tea leaves are broadcasting it and never looks back. The rest go down with the position they've married.

[dominos]

Analysis made with traditional Elliott wave theory, we failed again to break 10.5k

We didn't even try to break out 10.5k resistance level so I don't know why are you using this as an support for your opinion.
About using Elliot Waves - it's okay but ask yourself -> We are after BTC halving event and we are going to 5,5k level in 1,5 months?

[boyptc]

Best of luck to bears as well.

I've thought that it would drop to $8000 but it seems like we've just hit the resistance of $8900. I'm also considering that it will still drop and that's inevitable within a few months. Well, if ever the analysis you've made is correct on that estimation you have given, I'll buy.

[Bitmore1]

Would be insanely stupid to short a bullish asset class during a bull cycle 

I don't see it either.  If BTC goes below $6K, I am selling my car and buying!

[Fundamentals Of]

Would be insanely stupid to short a bullish asset class during a bull cycle 

I don't see it either.  If BTC goes below $6K, I am selling my car and buying!

You better do it at $8,000 or $7,000. Leave the $6,000 to history.

But if ever that $6,000 will arrive, let it. We'll be having another round of buying party.

The most ambitious traders will aim at 3.5k

The most ambitious traders will therefore end up waiting forever.

[cafetools]

Despite all this talk from the original poster, I want to see him put his money where his mouth is. Actually show proof of him shorting it, with a big chunk from his savings. A lot of traders are monday morning quarterbacks honestly.

[DeathAngel]

Oh Bossian, you’re always so bearish, I really don’t see it being possible that we fall that low again. I don’t think we’ll ever see a sub $7,000 again in our lifetimes. We’re set to enter the next bull run soon, the bottom has passed.

[beerlover]

This is why I love TA people and the short term traders. Right now we have two topics about how bitcoin could break the biggest bull very quickly very soon because it looks like 20k+ is very possible even 100k is at our reach, and there is a topic here about how the target is 5.5k, I can't talk about which one is right and which one is wrong, because I am not an expert and I can't say anything.

However, even the idea that someone can look at TA and say 5.5k while the other person could look at it and say 100k could very well be enough reason that people either don't know how to use TA at all, or basically it is a proof that TA could be looked from anywhere you want and you could see whatever you want, people could literally draw any conclusion they could want.

[Slow death]

I do not know how you can think that the price will fall to $5000 at a time when countries are already starting to return to normal life and we know that after halving the price slowly starts to increase a lot, for sure that the rich will start to put money in bitcoin as soon as they start to go back to their normal life. Think, if even with this catastrophic situation the price was able to remain at $ 9000, then imagine what will happen when the lives of people all over the world return to normal? the price will go up a lot. I know you did a lot of analysis, but this analysis fails most of the time when people make bitcoin price predictions

Oh Bossian, you’re always so bearish, I really don’t see it being possible that we fall that low again.

he must have met the time traveler that John McAfee mentioned last year

I don’t think we’ll ever see a sub $7,000 again in our lifetimes. We’re set to enter the next bull run soon, the bottom has passed.

I think you are being very optimistic, don't forget that we are talking about the crypto market where some whale can come out of nowhere and cause a big dump without any reason