Short & Long on Bitcoin/USD market: Bossian's trading tips

[Bossian]

Hi folks,

Been posting for a while now. I am usually a swing trader, never do daily trading (too tricky). My typical timeframe for a trade is 1 week to 2/3 months.

I posted the following thread recently: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5250255.msg54477235#msg54477235
As you can read, I have a target at 5.5k for Bitcoin, with an estimate date of July-August.


I will update this thread whenever I can and will post charts when I have more time.


The analysis behind my short to 5.5k is mainly backed by Elliott Waves theory (see link posted above). I am confident we see 5.5k soon, however in between I usually secure some profits, and my first securing profit price will be 7.9k because I see a possible bounce back from there.





To sum up:
Target by August: 5.5k
Secure profit at 7.9k, and will try to short again if bounce back at 8.3k.


This thread is not financial advice, do your own research   best of luck everybody!  

[slaman29]

Hi there, thank you for sharing. I thought swing traders were also daily traders (or was it daily traders also traded swing?) though, or at least some of my friends who trade daily talk about swings a lot.

What is your stop though, you did not mention about that in this trade? I'm thinking short for short term too...

[Bossian]

Hi there, thank you for sharing. I thought swing traders were also daily traders (or was it daily traders also traded swing?) though, or at least some of my friends who trade daily talk about swings a lot.

What is your stop though, you did not mention about that in this trade? I'm thinking short for short term too...

Sorry you are right, forgot to mention it. Stop Loss @ 10.8 for this trade but I could already move it around 10.2k.

Also forgot to mention in the first post I am obviously using Fibonacci to find my personal targets (for beginners: https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/Fibonacci-sequence ).

[drlukacs]

This article is great, it has all the right indicators and analysis. actually, I did have an analysis of bitcoin's price decline in the coming days but it will not drop as sharply as the Elliott Waves you drew. The sharks will not easily let the price fall miserably. They know that there are lots of people down there waiting to buy cheap bitcoin. So, according to psychological analysis, I think bitcoin's price will drop to around $ 7k3 and then pump up.

[Bossian]

This article is great, it has all the right indicators and analysis. actually, I did have an analysis of bitcoin's price decline in the coming days but it will not drop as sharply as the Elliott Waves you drew. The sharks will not easily let the price fall miserably. They know that there are lots of people down there waiting to buy cheap bitcoin. So, according to psychological analysis, I think bitcoin's price will drop to around $ 7k3 and then pump up.

In my analysis, that would be a bounce back, or we could say a correction of the sharp downtrend. Nothing unusual.

This bounce back would of course not go against the overall trajectory of our Bitcoin price heading to 5.5k area, then possibly to 3.1k.

[GreatArkansas]

I love your chart, you have point especially it is for kinda mid-term which takes months.
$5,500 area now is a possible huge horizontal support area of Bitcoin, but it takes time to go dump there.
Breaking a $7,000 key support level will be more positive for me to see the $5,500 level.
As Bitcoin now still neutral, I want to see first $10,000 before $5,500.
What do you think? If we will able to reach $10,000 by the end of the month, your chart will be invalid?

[Bossian]

I love your chart, you have point especially it is for kinda mid-term which takes months.
$5,500 area now is a possible huge horizontal support area of Bitcoin, but it takes time to go dump there.
Breaking a $7,000 key support level will be more positive for me to see the $5,500 level.
As Bitcoin now still neutral, I want to see first $10,000 before $5,500.
What do you think? If we will able to reach $10,000 by the end of the month, your chart will be invalid?

It would definitely be invalid yes, but right now it looks very unlikely. The big resistance that Bitcoin failed to break was 10.5k. Now after this failure, it is only obvious that the market will start capitulating. With an event like the halvening, it was a perfect opportunity for the whales to wait for the price to get close to this resistance and sell. Whales are wrecking the noobs at the moment. It often happens like that. IMO 2020 is a very bearish year (but still a good one for people who bought Bitcoin in January and sold in February, but not a good year for those who bought into the halvening.
2021 is still far away but if we see a double bottom at $3100 then a new cycle begins, then bulls can have hope. But right now we are too busy with 2020 to think about 2021 and as said previously, Bitcoin will be cheaper by the end of the year, no point in buying now.

My opinion of course and not financial advice 

[Bossian]

I moved my stop loss from $10800 to $12200.

See this topic to understand the logic behind this move: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254070.msg54581221#msg54581221

[coinfinger]

Did you get any analysis you have done by the times of last year May month when bitcoin raised up from ~$3500 to ~$13,500; I mean how was your technical analysis worked on that rapid rally?

Bitcoin mostly does not obey any technical analysis because we cannot assume who are the institutional investors coming in and how whales are booking profits. I mean bitcoin is currently having unequally distributed supply and also might attract small to very big investors at any time which makes it is fluctuating too wildly; hence predicting it with any of mathematical calculation may end up in disappointing.

I will not sell my bitcoin holding right now nor I will not short with the expectation of upcoming down fall market but definitely I will buy at dips. Because bitcoin is always in bullish mode for longer time frame hence working for a bull market is easier way for me to make profits.

[exstasie]

I moved my stop loss from $10800 to $12200.

See this topic to understand the logic behind this move: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254070.msg54581221#msg54581221

What was your original entry? I just see your target in the OP. I'm curious about the risk vs. reward ratio on this trade. Widening the stop loss so much increases your risk quite a lot.

If you're confident in the move to $11,800 then why not just close now and re-short higher?

[mbahokey]

I have been using Elliott waves based abcd pattern for forex and crypto trading, it's like an oscillator indicator because it's able to predict the direction of price movements. Sometimes I have to place a large stop loss point to keep my margin, so I combined it with another technical indicators. Not only with fibonacci retracement, but also Support Resistance and fractals are very important to get a right higher/lower point for OP.

[Bossian]

I moved my stop loss from $10800 to $12200.

See this topic to understand the logic behind this move: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254070.msg54581221#msg54581221

What was your original entry? I just see your target in the OP. I'm curious about the risk vs. reward ratio on this trade. Widening the stop loss so much increases your risk quite a lot.

If you're confident in the move to $11,800 then why not just close now and re-short higher?

I had several short orders lately, the first short was at 9500 and the second one at 10100.

I cashed out already on the second short for a nice profit (and quick, just a matter of a few days). The first short at 9500 is still active, I am getting impatient right now because of the swap fee I pay for this short but since my take profit is quite low, I need some patience for a nice potential reward.

Originally my target is at 5.5k, but I will probably cash out at 6.5k if I have the opportunity. By the way I believe less and less about the move to 12k, so I will probably move my stop loss again if we keep going down from now. Key price is 8.6k to confirm the downtrend.  

[exstasie]

The first short at 9500 is still active, I am getting impatient right now because of the swap fee I pay for this short but since my take profit is quite low, I need some patience for a nice potential reward.

Originally my target is at 5.5k, but I will probably cash out at 6.5k if I have the opportunity.

Shorters are getting paid right now, at least on Bitmex.

If swap fees are an issue, why not trade futures instead of perpetual swaps? No funding fees and they are trading at a premium right now. Great for mid-term holding on a short. Check out Bitmex's September contract for example: https://www.bitmex.com/app/contract/XBTU20

[nutildah]

LOL this guy used the covid selloff to make a chart formation 

The reason another selloff won't happen is because of the record-breaking capital injection by the fed. That will keep all markets buoyant for some time to come, including BTC.

No wonder he's been wrong for months. I hope nobody actually acted on his "tips".

His analysis is woefully ignorant of the fact that the Federal Reserve just injected a few trillion dollars worth of liquidity into the markets. People are idiots if they don't think at least a few billion of it is finding its way into BTC every now and then.

By using the Elliott Waves theory