Prepare for 4am dip

[K128kevin]

Hey guys, so I have a slightly more reasonable prediction than the "prepare for march 16th dip" post made a little while back.

As some of you may have seen in a post I made several days ago, I have been working on software that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. The predictions can be seen at http://www.btcpredictions.com/

The short term neural network has been consistently predicting a dip from around $585 down to about $562 and then back up to around $590 starting around 4am EST, reaching its lowest price around 7am and then returning to $590 around 10am.

Obviously this program's predictions are not always right, and predictions that are further away are more difficult for it to make. However, it seems relatively confident about this dip. I believe the dip will occur, though the magnitude may be a bit off or the dip may be shifted in one direction slightly. So we'll see how well the software performs!

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

Nice stuff you have coded there! 

[MOB]

Is that software called "English" and is the neural network "your brain"?


I agree that things tend to happen around certain times as different timezones wake up for the day, thereby setting a trend for other zones.

[Cyberlight]

Why it didn't predict the China dip this morning ?

Average Error: 1.293% right.. nonsense.

It's just a tool for market manipulation.

[K128kevin]

ShroomsKit_Disgrade - Thanks!

MOB - The software doesn't have a name because I didn't name it, and the neural network is an artificial neural network, not my brain. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neural_network It's a computational model for approximating functions basically.

Cyberlight -
1. It's not always right, as I said in the OP and as it says in multiple places on the website. It probably performs better than a human could though.
2. It did predict for the price to go down, just not to the degree that it did.
3. The average error is the amount off from the actual price that each price usually is. That means that with an average error of 1.3%, if the prediction is $600 then the price will usually be between $592.2 and $608.2. I explain how the average error is calculated in the about page.
4. The idea that I created this for market manipulation is beyond ridiculous for far too many reasons to name here...

*Also if something in China caused the price to go down, as what you said implied, then there is no way the software could predict that. I explain this in the section about real-life events on the about page.

[Cyberlight]

Ok .. understand, but a head like 'Prepare for 4am dip' could suggest that, cosmofly is a obvious market manipulator.

What you predict is just a weekend dip, bitcoin has mostly always weekend dips.

[Ibian]

Stop talking about cosmo already. It is unbelievable that a retard like that can have so much influence on people.

[Bonam]

Neural networks aren't magic... all they can do is take data you supply them, process it in some way, and produce a result, just like any computer. If a neural network could be developed to predict future market movement based on past price data, you can be sure people would have already implemented it for the stock/futures/forex markets and made trillions of dollars.

[K128kevin]

Neural networks aren't magic... all they can do is take data you supply them, process it in some way, and produce a result, just like any computer. If a neural network could be developed to predict future market movement based on past price data, you can be sure people would have already implemented it for the stock/futures/forex markets and made trillions of dollars.

Actually neural networks are very commonly used for stock predictions and they are known to be successful. You can buy software specifically for this purpose.

Check it out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_prediction#Technical_analysis

Also I never said they are magic... Like I said, my software is sometimes wrong. It does seem to do pretty well though.

[Bonam]

Actually neural networks are very commonly used for stock predictions and they are known to be successful. You can buy software specifically for this purpose.

If you can buy software that demonstrably gives you an edge, people will buy it and use it until any edge it gives evaporates, because whatever market inefficiency was being exploited will disappear.

You are right that you can make profit with ANNs, but only so long as your trades are small enough not to affect the market and as long as competitors don't have similar ANNs. I guess perhaps in the bitcoin world there is enough market inefficiency that you can do stuff like this without all the advantage evaporating immediately.

[segeln]

Hi OP,
I am fascinated and i will watch the hole night,how your work will perform
Good Luck to you

[Torque]

Hey guys, so I have a slightly more reasonable prediction than the "prepare for march 16th dip" post made a little while back.

As some of you may have seen in a post I made several days ago, I have been working on software that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. The predictions can be seen at http://www.btcpredictions.com/

The short term neural network has been consistently predicting a dip from around $585 down to about $562 and then back up to around $590 starting around 4am EST, reaching its lowest price around 7am and then returning to $590 around 10am.

Obviously this program's predictions are not always right, and predictions that are further away are more difficult for it to make. However, it seems relatively confident about this dip. I believe the dip will occur, though the magnitude may be a bit off or the dip may be shifted in one direction slightly. So we'll see how well the software performs!

Let me translate the OP's text for everyone:

"Hey guys, I'm a newb that just create an account a few days ago.  I'm really a shark trader and/or whale that is trolling, but I'm going to pretend that I'm an innocent and I've got some amazing bitcoin TA powers so that people believe me.  I'm affiliated in some way or have insider knowledge of the group of whales that plan to post a fake FUD article about China banning bitcoin during the night.  It should happen around 4am EST.  When they do, the Chinese market is going to go into crazy panic sell off mode, and the price should [dip from around $585 down to about $562 and then back up to around $590 reaching its lowest price around 7am and then returning to $590 around 10am]. My cronies will then take advantage of the panic by scooping up cheap coins. But you'll think that somehow I have these amazingly predictive TA powers, and you'll give me kudos for being right and start following me in the Speculation forum.  You'll also think my neural net software is amazing, when it really doesn't do shit. Yay me and my cronies for conning you all."

 

[K128kevin]

segeln - thanks man!

Torque - I don't know what a shark trader or whale is, I don't know what a FUD article is, I don't know what half the things you said even are. I spent hundreds, if not thousands of hours working on the software that creates this, and I never said that I have some amazing predicting powers. In fact, I have been continually warning people that this can sometimes be wrong - there is no guarantee here. You obviously did not read anything I wrote on my site. Please don't make ridiculous accusations towards me based on literally nothing -_-

Also I'm not working with anyone else on this - it's just me at the moment.

[Torque]

segeln - thanks man!

Torque - I don't know what a shark trader or whale is, I don't know what a FUD article is, I don't know what half the things you said even are. I spent hundreds, if not thousands of hours working on the software that creates this, and I never said that I have some amazing predicting powers. In fact, I have been continually warning people that this can sometimes be wrong - there is no guarantee here. You obviously did not read anything I wrote on my site. Please don't make ridiculous accusations towards me based on literally nothing -_-

Also I'm not working with anyone else on this - it's just me at the moment.

Posted so you can't edit.  Your first and second sentences clearly incriminate you.  You don't know what those things are, but you've put 1000's of hours of time into a neural net prediction engine for bitcoin?  Riiiight.

[Ibian]

I don't even like clicking the ignore button, why some people make me do it

[counter]

thanks for the heads up friend but if you are way off by 20 hours are you still going to claim that your predictions are spot on?  

[BitcoinHawker]

Hey guys, so I have a slightly more reasonable prediction than the "prepare for march 16th dip" post made a little while back.

As some of you may have seen in a post I made several days ago, I have been working on software that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. The predictions can be seen at http://www.btcpredictions.com/

The short term neural network has been consistently predicting a dip from around $585 down to about $562 and then back up to around $590 starting around 4am EST, reaching its lowest price around 7am and then returning to $590 around 10am.

Obviously this program's predictions are not always right, and predictions that are further away are more difficult for it to make. However, it seems relatively confident about this dip. I believe the dip will occur, though the magnitude may be a bit off or the dip may be shifted in one direction slightly. So we'll see how well the software performs!

Good luck! I hope it works. I am just a hodler

[segeln]

Let me translate the OP's text for everyone:

"Hey guys, I'm a newb that just create an account a few days ago.  I'm really a shark trader and/or whale that is trolling, but I'm going to pretend that I'm an innocent and I've got some amazing bitcoin TA powers so that people believe me.  I'm affiliated in some way or have insider knowledge of the group of whales that plan to post a fake FUD article about China banning bitcoin during the night.  It should happen around 4am EST.  When they do, the Chinese market is going to go into crazy panic sell off mode, and the price should [dip from around $585 down to about $562 and then back up to around $590 reaching its lowest price around 7am and then returning to $590 around 10am]. My cronies will then take advantage of the panic by scooping up cheap coins. But you'll think that somehow I have these amazingly predictive TA powers, and you'll give me kudos for being right and start following me in the Speculation forum.  You'll also think my neural net software is amazing, when it really doesn't do shit. Yay me and my cronies for conning you all."

sounds like conspiracy theory
any proofs or evidence ?

[K128kevin]

Haha I will call the prediction successful if it happens within like +/- 3 hours maybe, but no more than that. Certainly not 20 haha

Torque - This is a computer science project, I don't need to know a lot about economics to program a decent neural network. If you dislike my project then ignore it, there is no need to come here and insult me and my work for no reason. At least give constructive criticism if you don't like it - that I would be open to.

[vitarian]

Stop talking about cosmo already. It is unbelievable that a retard like that can have so much influence on people.

hey, it wasn't cosmo, it was cosmo's friend of a friend.