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Author Topic: 2 Charts, bulls and bears both correct?  (Read 441 times)
ukloon
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June 07, 2020, 01:04:28 PM
Merited by suchmoon (7), dragonvslinux (1)
 #1

My analysis shows why there is deep division on where bitcoin prices are going next. Both bearish and bullish charts look to be correct!

The BEARish chart shows a series of descending triangles, and a triple top. So it looks an imminent dump, and maybe Sept at $8800 or Jan 2021 at $7500 for a breakout?




On the other hand, it might have already broken out of a large descending triangle, and is on it's way to a bullish breakout



As you can see, both charts appear to be correct, so which one do we believe?!  Huh

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June 07, 2020, 03:07:49 PM
 #2

That's a great explanation of Bitcoin price analysis but I believed that the bullish market will come and I usually ignored the bearish trend and always think that it is possible that there's a bullish trend someday and I keep holding my Bitcoin whatever happen.

Ain't expert on TA but I appreciate your explanation, I'd choose the bearish one. Even though we know that it is unpredictable but I still holding until it will reach my goal profit. I'd go on a bullish breakout chart.





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June 07, 2020, 04:10:24 PM
 #3

both charts seem to tend to Bullish, now the price of Bitcoin will also likely return to $ 9700,
let's see what happens next, if true then the end of the year Bitcoin will be $ 15000  Grin

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June 07, 2020, 04:20:07 PM
Merited by Coin_trader (2)
 #4

The current price trend for BTC is very unpredictable. We already experienced some scenario that we might called as evidence when BTC pump and dump from 9500 to 10000 for a short time frame. Technically speaking, no TA can predict that move and its pretty obvious that someone pump and dump the market during that time. So if that same scenario will happen again but with a larger scale, No chart pattern on the mention above will commence.

In the other hand. Neglecting that wildcard scenario. I'm pretty sure that we are still in bullish trend as per current graph showing.

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June 07, 2020, 04:47:16 PM
 #5

People are reading charts with stocks for centuries but the results are either up or down and nobody can tell it for sure.
The political and economic situation as well as peoples and governments stance towards bitcoin or cypto might have an affect on the coin.
Significant events like hacks, theft, loss, bug, fork, new implementations of upgrade may have effect on the change.
But I don't believe the market would respond the same way they did before based on some periodic graphs.
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June 07, 2020, 06:02:54 PM
 #6

I am a perma-bull so I guess I am biased when I look at the two options.  But we all know that the market situation differs each day.  That is why there is conflicting analysis from the same author within a single day span.  And with the Bitcoin market which is very unpredictable, anything can happen, probably your bear analysis will happen before your bulls one.  At the end of the day, TA is something that has lots of loopholes but is very important in determining the possible entry and exit points in the trading market.

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June 07, 2020, 10:45:14 PM
 #7

My analysis shows why there is deep division on where bitcoin prices are going next. Both bearish and bullish charts look to be correct!

The BEARish chart shows a series of descending triangles, and a triple top. So it looks an imminent dump, and maybe Sept at $8800 or Jan 2021 at $7500 for a breakout?


I don't see a descending triangle in 2019. That section of the chart looks a bit forced. My thoughts on a triple top:

A triple top (October 2019, February 2020, June 2020) isn't good for the bulls.

Double tops (or triple tops) are topping patterns that appear at the end of uptrends. $10.5K is resistance in a long term downtrend. Big difference. The lower lows in between those peaks rule out any sort of topping structure like that.

Triple tops are unicorns anyway. I've never seen them work before. Usually it's just a temporary consolidation before a prior double top is broken to the upside. Wink

I'm more focused on resolution of the larger 2018-2020 triangle:



If bears win the short term battle and break the weekly uptrend (below $8,600 or ideally $8,100) that's a likely confirmation that Wave D is complete. Per EW rules, Wave E should either be a zig zag or a contracting triangle, so I like the OP's idea of a "triangle within triangle" into the end of 2020.

As you can see, both charts appear to be correct, so which one do we believe?!  Huh

Neither until $10.5K or $8,600 is broken with authority. This range loves to troll, trapping traders in both directions. I am not trading much at this point. Too unpredictable.

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June 07, 2020, 11:59:56 PM
Last edit: June 08, 2020, 12:13:37 AM by STT
 #8

Till it resolves in either direction they can both be correct, probable but yet to occur.   The thing people really dislike about TA is that it maps possible scenarios never certainties and so the unsaid trick is to how quickly you let go of a position when it proves invalidated by price action.  Anyone who claims definites or Ive never entered bad trades I had to drop is just not for real imo.
  My guess for which path is taken is that I think we test both theories, the market doesn't have one mind its placed all over the place around the world and even in different currencies.   People want to take exchange prices but I know alot of people dont want to use an exchange, they stick to the gamble site or whatever their main use of BTC might be and I hope their own wallet.   Its alot cheaper to use a wallet, so by the nature of the product volume is not apparent and price discovery seems to be a larger more extended event on big price change.

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June 08, 2020, 12:19:32 AM
 #9

Breaking the resistance of those triple tops for me is the bullish scenario for Bitcoin in next few weeks.
And good you identified that huge descending triangle, which also a bullish pattern especially if it will breakout above.
To summarize, major resistance for me is that triple tops resistance around $10,000+.





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June 08, 2020, 07:03:50 AM
 #10

Reminds me of the Tweet last year by some guy who posted charts showing bullish runs, then turned the same charts upside down to show that actually people still were commenting and believing in upside down charts (that actually showed bear runs).

Proof that you can see a bull or bear in whichever chart you want:)

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June 08, 2020, 07:36:54 AM
 #11

OP, I believe the whalecumulators are equally confused, because they probably by now know that each of the choices are right for the HODLer.

Whalecumulators dump, buy the dip.

Whalecumulators pump, and HODL. Cool

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fabiorem
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June 08, 2020, 09:43:53 AM
 #12

The bullish chart seems more on point. There is a breach in the triangle structure. It might have happen because the bear market is old, so it is losing strength.
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June 08, 2020, 10:20:26 AM
 #13

Nice analysis, it's always more useful to see someone providing both the bullish & bearish perspectives as opposed to one or the other. While I don't believe in triple tops, as this to me implies that price is attracted towards this resistance level and will therefore eventually break through it, I do very much see the argument for the possibility of a descending triangle forming. But this is only because I always see the possibility for a triangle forming  Tongue As of yet, there is no triangle however.

Using a log chart I see the long-term downtrend line as different, but similarly that we have arguably closed above it and holding support. But this is purely on the basis of price not breaking down and the downtrend resistance merely shifting (as it has done so already in my opinion with the previous $10K breakdown). Is yours a linear chart btw?

+1

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June 08, 2020, 03:40:10 PM
 #14

It's always hard to figure out where bitcoin is heading so i have added short-term charts here
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254210.0

If it does dump which the short-term charts show is likely to happen then this EW theory will also take place

If bears win the short term battle and break the weekly uptrend (below $8,600 or ideally $8,100) that's a likely confirmation that Wave D is complete. Per EW rules, Wave E should either be a zig zag or a contracting triangle, so I like the OP's idea of a "triangle within triangle" into the end of 2020.



Neither until $10.5K or $8,600 is broken with authority. This range loves to troll, trapping traders in both directions. I am not trading much at this point. Too unpredictable.

A quick upside to $14k once the $10k barrier is breached so tethering at the right time is going to be challenging

Using a log chart I see the long-term downtrend line as different, but similarly that we have arguably closed above it and holding support. But this is purely on the basis of price not breaking down and the downtrend resistance merely shifting (as it has done so already in my opinion with the previous $10K breakdown). Is yours a linear chart btw?

Yes it's linear, I'm using candlesticks and then zooming in and out on certain months to get the right range of patterns. Not that there is any pattern that is is always right, but it's one of several indicators that can help

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