If someone would give you some money and you had to put it on yes or now - wether the difficulty would be above 10B on June 15 what would you do? Give some reasons for your decision - write a blog article about it. You have to come up with a percentage in your post. Post here or make send us a link to your post and your opinion.
We choose the bets post and publish it (if you agree) on blog.fairlay.com. Furthermore we bet for you (or give it to your account and you do) 100mBTC on this corresponding bet: https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/bitcoin-difficulty-10b/ at the ratio your % suggests. If you say it is 50% then we bet 50mBTC on yes and on 50mBTC on no. The odds would be the corresponding odds * 1.05. In the example the corresponding odds to 50% are 2. Thus two bets of 50mBTC with odds of 2*1.05 = 2.1. If this is confusing - forget it - we will guide you - all we want to now is a good assumption wether this will happen or not.I’d say that the difficulty will almost certainly be above 10B by then (though I’d happily be wrong).
June 15th is roughly 7 difficulty changes away (assuming the 12-13 days per 2016 blocks), which even at a low 15% increase per change would still result in a network difficulty of approximately 11B by then.
When you start taking a look at manufacturers who will be developing and shipping over the next few months (Spondoolies, CoinTerra, KnC, ASICMiner, BitMain, BitMine.CH, etc), seeing difficulty spikes similar to mid/late-2013 are not unlikely. Not to mention the unpredictable increase in private mining interests from individuals and companies that are looking to develop and use their own mining chips.
The average difficulty increase between January 1st, 2013 and March 13th, 2014 is 21.53%
[1]. Applying that average over the next several difficulty increases places mid-June 2014 around 16B.
[1] --
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
