A move (almost) no one is expecting: gap at $11795

[Bossian]

What if the whales decide to wreck both bears and bulls in the next coming weeks?


At the time of this post, Bitcoin is trading a bit above $9700.





Now we are well aware of the big resistance at $10500, placing a short with a stop loss at $10600 sounds too easy, too obvious?

Whales could destroy all those bears and liquidate all these stop losses.


Then everyone would turn bullish because the resistance has been officially broken. Whales now can destroy these bulls, go to $11795 area to fill the gap on the future exchange.


Coincidentally, our Fibonacci gives us $11765 (Fib 100) since the last $8600ish bottom   Would be amazing if this happens. This way, the whales ruin both bears and bulls. Our lovely downtrend is back from $11.7k to go below $7000 for a first take profit target (that would be around $6700).






The move from $11.7k to below $9.5k needs to be quick, similar to June 2019 when we touched $13.8k then dropped very fast from there (gravestone doji).





A quick drop is necessary so the monthly candle of June 2020 doesn't close above $9.7k, this is necessary to stay in the bearish triangle that started since December 2017.

Best way to benefit from such possible move is to wait for $11600 and short the market from there, with a tight stop loss above $11.8k.


Wait and see  





tl;dr

Whales troll the market, pump to $11.7k then dump with a possible crash to $3.1k area.

A more boring version is we reached our top for 2020 already and Bitcoin will not break the $10.5k resistance. More boring but also more expected at this stage.

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[buwaytress]

Short term and medium term traders will be wrecked, but I'm not sure either of those are mutually exclusive to bulls or bears.

I'm probably always short/medium bear and very long term very bull, and neither of those scenarios wreck me, both actually benefit me since I'm always buying in any of that range!

Alternative thread title: Whales boost long-term users, dump out speculators?

[Bossian]

Short term and medium term traders will be wrecked, but I'm not sure either of those are mutually exclusive to bulls or bears.

I'm probably always short/medium bear and very long term very bull, and neither of those scenarios wreck me, both actually benefit me since I'm always buying in any of that range!

Alternative thread title: Whales boost long-term users, dump out speculators?

Holders will not be impacted as long as they hold you are right about this, I was specifically talking about traders who work with stop losses all the time (both bears and bulls), thanks for adding this precision even though, some bulls who are not traders will lose money in this scenario because we know how it works, you buy expecting Bitcoin price to pump, but there is a crash and lots of them will sell after seeing so many red candles. Emotions and money often do not fit well together.

[Kelvinid]

That was difficult to speculate. And I'm afraid that many usual traders and investors will fall into their traps. The Zigzag line tells us that dumps will certainly be followed with pumps in a short while but I'm not sure if all of us here had already noticed that trend.

What I have observed now is that it takes more time to recover and reach another peak, and quite that different as it dumps. The $10k resistance that we've been waiting for is already broke but the problem is that the market can't able to sustain that high, instead it drops back again. Well, that whales have something to do in order to catch their prey and that they'll do now is quite effective and beneficial to them but too sad that small market players and newcomers had suffered such (expected) losses.

[dragonvslinux]

I'd already considered a move to just short of $12K as more than possible, and in my mind the target of a breakout as is the next approximate level of resistance, as some other analysts have also identified. The fact that there is a futures gap up there does make a lot more sense for prices to reach this level. I'm grateful you made me look at the CME chart as there is a double bullish cross-over (including golden cross) of the 50, 100 & 200 Day MAs around $8,500. I also think it's possible price could move down to these levels as a bull trap for spot/leverage traders, before futures traders buy up this golden cross and volume point of control support level.



That said, I don't see any reason why prices would then fall back down to the $5-7K region or lower. Of course they could, anything could happen; global panic could continue, the stock markets could have a volitle crash again after a double top, many things could happen, the future is unknown. But in my mind, breaking through $10.5K to $12K level, would mean somewhere between $8-10.5K would be more likely to act as support, as there would be a lot of support waiting for the price at these levels given a successful breakout upwards.

[exstasie]

Whales troll the market, pump to $11.7k then dump with a possible crash to $3.1k area.

This reminds me of an idea from xxxx123abcxxxx:

As I said in his thread, it would be quite a mind fuck and would really confuse the market. It could be one route to achieving maximum pain. However, Bitfinex shorts continue to fall and are quite low already as longs continue to rise. Bitmex interest rates also indicate bears are not keen on shorting. That suggests to me the direction of maximum pain is actually downward from here, keeping $10.5K intact.

Sentiment analysis is not exactly a science though.

[STT]

Any break above 10300 now would seem to indicate a break upwards, that could lead to this higher price but I dont know it has to fall especially harshly after that.    I always attribute moves to the market itself not whales, the most some rich traders could do on leverage is topple a boulder already standing atop a hillside. If its setup to fall then its going to happen or at the least be tested, its a natural process so waves back and forth will dislodge most positions.   I think the test down is yet to come but theres no sign yet.

[adaseb]

Even though most gaps usually fill, you need to realise some of them take a very long time to fill. Basically I have kept the CME gaps in mind when I am looking to take profit on a trade but I never take a trade just based on the fact that a gap needs to fill.

Imagine taking a long at $11500 because you assumed it would go to $11795 and you ended up having price go to the low $3K's. Is it worth it going against you that much just gain about $300? No.

Hence don't take these gap traders too seriously. Sure they will eventually fill but the question is when?

[hugeblack]

Why was the resistance level at 9800 to 10300 which the price failed to break last time been ignored? Once this barrier was broken the previous time, we saw a rebound to the level of $ 8,000, but a quick return, which means that we may need more time to break this barrier.

The rest of the analyzes make sense, but I think we will stay at $ 9,600 for several days.

[BrewMaster]

well you have been screaming $3.1k price for a long time now and each time price only keeps going up. at this point it is starting to look like you have got a fetish for that arbitrary number because none of the things you have said so far in your numerous topics made any sense.
your view of the market, the whales and manipulation are extremely exaggerated at best.

right now the market is in the hands of day traders and price will neither move up nor down. any whale that goes against this sideways action will only lose money just like many who have already lost their money expecting weird things out of the price.

[palle11]

Hence don't take these gap traders too seriously. Sure they will eventually fill but the question is when?

Gaps are really dangerous to ignore especially on the very week. If in the next week, a previous week gap might not be too volatile because it would likely follow a gradual correction of the said week.

What I do about gap is to be very careful that week by trading short if it is not in the direction of the gap closure.

[exstasie]

Even though most gaps usually fill, you need to realise some of them take a very long time to fill. Basically I have kept the CME gaps in mind when I am looking to take profit on a trade but I never take a trade just based on the fact that a gap needs to fill.

It's a tiny daily gap from a year ago. It's not meaningful S/R at this point. If the market goes there, I would consider it coincidental to the gap itself and I would expect a bull market to continue above it regardless.

People take the gap fill theory way too literally. Common gaps get filled all the time because they happen all the time. Breakaway, runaway, and exhaustion gaps often don't get filled and once enough time passes, they lose their importance as S/R levels.

[stompix]

Coincidentally, our Fibonacci gives us $11765

But but...Elliott waves...

The analysis behind my short to 5.5k is mainly backed by Elliott Waves theory

I have a feeling you're going to move your B point a lot, from May to June to July till December 2140

well you have been screaming $3.1k price for a long time now and each time price only keeps going up. at this point it is starting to look like you have got a fetish for that arbitrary number because none of the things you have said so far in your numerous topics made any sense.

All wannabe traders have that fetish for numbers and trends they try to see in the previous evolutions.
He's the perfect example that can draw 10 of those with 10 theories on the same interval, come with 10 prices ranges and get all of them wrong 

[Bossian]

Looks like this scenario could still play out, I confess I considered this one to be invalid a bit too early. With today's move and the RSI reaching a new high, my point (B) (still in a downtrend) could reach around $12k, it is very convenient there is this gap on the exchange market.
After this price there should be a dump at least to $8.5k and my most preferred target is around $6.5k. At that price one should consider to invest big.
My opinion.

[BrewMaster]

if we could reach $12k in this short time there will only be a weak hand shakeout to $11.5 or something like that before the FOMO kicks in and the rally officially starts without anything stopping it.

the behavior you see (rise then fall the same amount) is because we have been always below a resistance line (that is $10k) otherwise breaking it is THE signal to buy non-stop, there won't be any big drops anymore for a long time.

[figmentofmyass]

Looks like this scenario could still play out, I confess I considered this one to be invalid a bit too early. With today's move and the RSI reaching a new high, my point (B) (still in a downtrend) could reach around $12k, it is very convenient there is this gap on the exchange market.
After this price there should be a dump at least to $8.5k and my most preferred target is around $6.5k. At that price one should consider to invest big.
My opinion.

i don't see the market hitting $12k+ only to go straight back to the $6000s. bull markets are not ordinarily so forgiving to sellers.

maybe you'll get a retest of $10k---that would be logical. the market will want to see it confirmed as support on the way up. i'm pretty confident that's the lowest you'll see after a move like that though.

[ultrloa]

Looks like this scenario could still play out, I confess I considered this one to be invalid a bit too early. With today's move and the RSI reaching a new high, my point (B) (still in a downtrend) could reach around $12k, it is very convenient there is this gap on the exchange market.
After this price there should be a dump at least to $8.5k and my most preferred target is around $6.5k. At that price one should consider to invest big.
My opinion.

i don't see the market hitting $12k+ only to go straight back to the $6000s. bull markets are not ordinarily so forgiving to sellers.

maybe you'll get a retest of $10k---that would be logical. the market will want to see it confirmed as support on the way up. i'm pretty confident that's the lowest you'll see after a move like that though.

Many though that they might won't see the $10k price hit up including me but suddenly things change when market move faster for the past couple of days so provably these things can possibly gotten once this hype will still occur since great things will come once all things is set and the phase will get back to normal.

[STT]

A quick drop back to test the lows is what I expect but at present its not expected at all which would make it quite effective in terms of shock value.   I dont think we get as high as 11.7k and if we do then its a bigger achievement then the market has achieved so far.   I'd have to counter that we got as high as 11.7k then we have further business at that level, it will have beaten this range of some months which then would likely prove as support after we exceed it.   Many would like to rebuy after losing out on this opportunity to buy here, at present people will still be asleep so getting higher will trigger a bullish question that markets will take some months to sort not the quick rejection idea.   I think quick rejection is more like 10.5k top then we fail to beat that and so form great disappointment once again.
   10491 is the peak for 2020, so not beating that is bearish but if go much higher its a new question and likely new volume form buyers hoping it will continue, creates interest by itself.

[GreatArkansas]

A quick drop back to test the lows is what I expect but at present its not expected at all which would make it quite effective in terms of shock value.   I dont think we get as high as 11.7k and if we do then its a bigger achievement then the market has achieved so far.   I'd have to counter that we got as high as 11.7k then we have further business at that level, it will have beaten this range of some months which then would likely prove as support after we exceed it.  
(....)

I am more positive to see $9,000 before $11,700 - $12,000. Maybe we can get more below but this can be happen with again, a huge red candle wicks.
Since July 28, 2020, bitcoin's price still on sideways $10,000+ - $11,100+, this is much better as long as we don't fall again below $9,000 but there are still huge dump effect once we fall again that area, just my 2 cents.
Small pullbacks will be healthy for Bitcoin, let's hope we will not experience a huge wicks, green or red candle wicks.

[Lanatsa]

A quick drop back to test the lows is what I expect but at present its not expected at all which would make it quite effective in terms of shock value.   I dont think we get as high as 11.7k and if we do then its a bigger achievement then the market has achieved so far.   I'd have to counter that we got as high as 11.7k then we have further business at that level, it will have beaten this range of some months which then would likely prove as support after we exceed it.  
(....)

I am more positive to see $9,000 before $11,700 - $12,000. Maybe we can get more below but this can be happen with again, a huge red candle wicks.
Since July 28, 2020, bitcoin's price still on sideways $10,000+ - $11,100+, this is much better as long as we don't fall again below $9,000 but there are still huge dump effect once we fall again that area, just my 2 cents.
Small pullbacks will be healthy for Bitcoin, let's hope we will not experience a huge wicks, green or red candle wicks.

Expect the unexpected yet market has always been like this on where it do wreck hopes of anybody on least time we do unexpect.Im already readying up myself on possible dump wayback on 9k.

Im not really that too negative but its better rather than to hope that much market is way too unpredictable. 11,700 isnt really that far off since the price is already playing around 11,300+ at the moment and reaching

$300-400 wont really be that too long but who knows on on what would happen yet huge rejection might or might not happen and able to break it out and proceed to 12k price.