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Author Topic: A trading chart does not play out to 100%  (Read 963 times)
Lorokan (OP)
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June 12, 2020, 08:16:34 AM
 #1

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments
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June 12, 2020, 08:26:40 AM
 #2

70% is mostly being generous. Why? Simply because you can't "predict" chart price movements when we're talking about fundamental news. Whatever your indicators are telling you, it could easily easily be invalidated by some news that affects the price in an opposite manner.

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June 12, 2020, 08:38:33 AM
 #3

I am not one of them who trade by depends on price chart. Yes, its help you to realize previous price trend but doesn't mean this pattern will repeat again. We may just imagine a pattern according to our mind, it would match with reality. Predictions by analyse chart would not correct, there is no such as clear explanation about it. Different people make different chart pattern according to knowledge and experience. So on that case you will have to realize yourself from your past experiences how your thoughts work and you should take decisions accordingly.

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June 12, 2020, 09:09:12 AM
 #4


So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

As for fundamental, there is no way it can be represented in a chart because it is basically news, information or sentiment and people's biase mind and view which trigger market to a n area. On the other which is TA,technical. It is well represented in a chart and I believe it gives traders like 70% direction or more which keeps occurring maybe until a change in information. This information is fundamental and is able to cause big damage to all accounts active on the wrong wave.

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June 12, 2020, 09:18:11 AM
 #5

Technical analysis is still can't 70% for me. It's difficult, even some traders do lost sometimes and their charts become invalidate. That's why there is always a stop loss when we do trade incase our chart will fail, 70% is no for me.
But even we can't do 70%, we still able maximize it by minimizing the risk.

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June 12, 2020, 10:54:40 AM
 #6

Ofcourse, it is hard to know everything.  I prefer developing strategies that work for me and I stick with them... whether they're strategies for fundamental or technical analysis.
And the strategies don't work 100%(probably from 40—50% up)
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June 12, 2020, 12:19:52 PM
Last edit: June 12, 2020, 12:31:48 PM by palle11
 #7

100% accuracy in trade is a big profit margin to an account, but if you are able to get a 70% that is fantastic even in physical business. In trading, you don't estimate for 100% because if you do, market might take a turn around before it gets to such high profit. Is better a 50% and above.
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June 12, 2020, 02:44:21 PM
 #8

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

If you are a real trader 70% is enough i think. Because everything does not go accurate as they also give you result of 70% by different kinds of indicator. So some indicator may not work actual way so rest 30% is your assumptions that can make you successful.

Be a lucky.
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June 12, 2020, 03:28:44 PM
 #9

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments
That should be pretty obvious, it is impossible that the market is going to move exactly as you predict every single time, there are simply too many factors to consider and if anything I still consider an accuracy of 70% to be very high, but I suppose it can be done if you are very talented at trading, however expecting a very high accuracy in your trades is probably one of the biggest mistakes that newbies make, they think they're going to win every single trade and when they don't they realize that their money management skills are weak and they lose a lot more money than what they thought, and then they take a risk that is too high on their next trades losing even more money in the process.

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June 12, 2020, 06:10:25 PM
 #10

Yes both.

Cause for me, only using a FA would make the percentage analysis only 50%. We need TA to confirmation the FA analysis did the one of the sources we used for FA could be reacted to the price or not. That's why FA/TA always has some connection 70-80% percentage successful analysis, other 30% percentage the reason cause nobody have ability to always predict with a correct analysis no matter how good you are we can make a mistake.

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June 12, 2020, 06:37:47 PM
 #11

Yes both.

Cause for me, only using a FA would make the percentage analysis only 50%. We need TA to confirmation the FA analysis did the one of the sources we used for FA could be reacted to the price or not. That's why FA/TA always has some connection 70-80% percentage successful analysis, other 30% percentage the reason cause nobody have ability to always predict with a correct analysis no matter how good you are we can make a mistake.
Well, I agree on this. Joining forces of your technical and fundamental analysis will give perhaps near to accurate result.
I did not say it is a fixed word of accurate result because I know no one will perfectly predict the market price and for sure it is not giving 100% sure result even how good you are in flattening of chart price.

Indeed, it is all matters about speculations in the market. If you are willing to risk your money just make it sure only can afford to lose.









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June 12, 2020, 11:15:15 PM
 #12

At 70% I will say that's really overwhelming I mean if it works out then there wont be loss and bearish and all those things because you can perfectly predict the market Truth is never seem like that, other forces outside the market like news and stuffs can generally affect how the events turn Not everyday is a win That's called life

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June 12, 2020, 11:59:12 PM
 #13

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

I dont know on where you do get that 70% when it comes to charting success chance? Its true that theres no such thing to be in precise yet we know that that crypto market can fucked you up big time no matter
how good your technical/chart analysis.

This is why traders would really mixed up fundamentals/news with it but to expect that not all the time we do able to hear out news or events that to happen into this space thats why majority would really end up
on TA for such moment.

Dont expect for 100% because its impossible for it to happen and even we do talk in Forex/stocks , its impossible. How much more in crypto market?

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June 13, 2020, 02:26:21 AM
 #14

Ofcourse, it is hard to know everything.  I prefer developing strategies that work for me and I stick with them... whether they're strategies for fundamental or technical analysis.
And the strategies don't work 100%(probably from 40—50% up)
Having many strategies will always work but you should choose exclusively the best one that you'll prefer to be effective. Without plans according to each goals, I don't think success will follow in the end. However, starting small capital even if 10-20% can be better and sufficient.
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June 13, 2020, 04:20:59 AM
 #15

70% is enough to decide what to do with the current market, so you will know what happens to the market. That is why we need to use other things to analyze the market before we do something. You can use the news to know what is going on with the market, besides using the chart to analyze, so you can predict what will happen next. But sometimes, your predicting can be wrong if the market changes the direction, making you apply another strategy based on the current market situation.

But we cannot accurately predict the market because the crypto market is hard to analyze based on the chart, the news, or the order. And sometimes, the market will move or not move to one point, so you need to have another strategy, and you can apply the other strategy if the market starts to move.
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June 13, 2020, 07:42:56 AM
 #16

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Charts is irrelevant to the price movement, and it's only pure predictions base on the chart patterns.
70% seems a bit higher percentage.
You have to put this always in your mind. No successful trader would ever disclose essential information on how you trade with a minimal rate of lossing funds.
These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

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June 13, 2020, 03:19:23 PM
 #17

There cannot be anything to make you sure about 100% accurate of future movements. This is because, we are all predicting the future of market based on past movements but future is simply influenced by many other factors and not just limited to past. So, there cannot be any tool/chart available to get you 100% accurate predictions.

Moreover most tools and charts are known for lagging in providing any clear signal. It means they may show you just what happened and you need to interpret what is going to happen which cannot be accurate all the times because it would be just a guess work but based on past things (and not purely 100% guess work). Also, I have seen some advanced tools are "overwriting", it means for example will show you buy signal at $10100 levels but markets is trading at $10400 levels (I tried to wait to buy at $10100 but it showed target reached at $10800).

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June 16, 2020, 03:44:41 PM
 #18

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.
You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

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June 16, 2020, 04:29:03 PM
 #19

Isn't 100% that gives an accurate answer, but at least you have an indicator when you're building your TA and FA. This is might your tool is solving your analysis in trading because in analysis, IMO, it starts with fundamental and next to your technical analysis.

No one will give accurate results in any analysis because the market is unpredictable. Relevant news will somehow give help in having analysis but the problem is not all are relevant news especially those aren't trusted news sites.
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June 16, 2020, 06:52:21 PM
 #20

Those TA and charts, are just guide for you to make your decision and it is not really guaranteed to be correct all the time. Yes, it helps sometimes but some traders are just only basing only on news. Even the chart is bullish but it suddenly got bad news with facts, for sure that particular coin will go down. That is what I have observed in the past few years.
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