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[SwayStar123]

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[STT]

Long is likely correct at present but move the stop or have a trailing stop loss.    BTC constantly spins in circles, its no where near to confirmed negative.    We did not touch what I'd see as the first objective down, I dont see that means its strong just its going to do that in future.    Repeat repeat till you believe it'll repeat again then it doesnt :p

Challenged trend but not to prior lows or the blue line roughly on this graph

[bitgolden]

I can see the long and the increase but I do not see the decrease after that. I have been around in crypto for a long time now and I know that almost every single long and increase eventually leads to decrease so I think you could be potentially right. But that doesn't change the fact that I do not see it this time around. Maybe it could fall, maybe you are right.

I just feel like the increase could be a bit quicker and a bit sudden to just suddenly start dropping right after. Instead of slowly going up, I can see it going to $12k levels very quickly in a week or so, and after that crash in a day to something like just under $9k. That is at least what I can read from the current charts and how the crypto world is going, but of course I could be very wrong as well.

[tabas]

If bitcoin pops to $10700 as swaystars prediction, I'll just follow his move and will get some profits at that level. And if it plummets to $9000, I'll push and use those profits.
It's going to be another roller coaster for sure.

[exstasie]

We already had one upside head fake to $10.4K. You think we get another one to $10.8K?

Seems unlikely to me. $10.5K is monthly and yearly resistance. Between all the time spent distributing below it and all the stops that will be run when the market goes above it, there's no way the market stops $300 higher. At that point I'd be targeting the upper $11,000s or $12,000s at least and I wouldn't be gambling with shorts at all. That's like shorting in mid-late 2016, quite dangerous.

[bitbunnny]

I can see the long and the increase but I do not see the decrease after that. I have been around in crypto for a long time now and I know that almost every single long and increase eventually leads to decrease so I think you could be potentially right. But that doesn't change the fact that I do not see it this time around. Maybe it could fall, maybe you are right.

I just feel like the increase could be a bit quicker and a bit sudden to just suddenly start dropping right after. Instead of slowly going up, I can see it going to $12k levels very quickly in a week or so, and after that crash in a day to something like just under $9k. That is at least what I can read from the current charts and how the crypto world is going, but of course I could be very wrong as well.

Recently we've already seen quite sudden rise and sudden fall after that. It wouldn't be a surprise.
Even if the price goes up I don't think it will go all the way to 12000$. Resistance at 10000$ is very high.and even if the price breaks it the question is if it will nanage to stay there and rise further. I don't think so, it doesn't seem very likely to me. Probably another fall.would happen.soon after the rise, if it even happens.
To my opinion price will continue to fluctuate in.current range and there will be no significant changes until the end of the yea, at least not those who would last longer.

[Rulelies]

I just hope it happens. There a lot of speculations that the market will be bearish again. Even from my charts i can see it. But it should happen fast so i can invest  and get good profits.

[hugeblack]

I remain optimistic about the direction of prices, and as long as the price remains high above the $ 9,600 barrier, a rise to above 10,700 is likely.
Support at $ 9200 was helpful in stopping losses to the $ 8,000 range and backing to $ 7,400, we have a Direct Downtrend that (50-day SMA) support. trendline support remains intact.

Bollinger Band 1-hour middle, the Fibonacci 21.6% one-month, SMA 100 4-hour, and the Fibo 50.8% one-week.

The key to falling is a rally down $ 91,100.

[buwaytress]

We already had one upside head fake to $10.4K. You think we get another one to $10.8K?

Seems unlikely to me. $10.5K is monthly and yearly resistance. Between all the time spent distributing below it and all the stops that will be run when the market goes above it, there's no way the market stops $300 higher. At that point I'd be targeting the upper $11,000s or $12,000s at least and I wouldn't be gambling with shorts at all. That's like shorting in mid-late 2016, quite dangerous.

Actually right after the fake 10.4 I thought we were really going to see another fake one too just before the weekend (before your thread), but as it turned out 11 dollars shy of 10,000 on Thursday.

Got to agree with exstasie here, that right now, it's highly unlikely we get another fake one with a higher limit. If it breaks and stays above 10500 for even half a day, we'll be seriously unlucky not to see 11k. Shorting at this point, be prepared for tight stops, OR to wait another couple years for the next major retracement post ATH -- in which case you'll miss out heavily!

[exstasie]

I remain optimistic about the direction of prices, and as long as the price remains high above the $ 9,600 barrier, a rise to above 10,700 is likely.

The price action itself on higher time frames is neutral, not bullish or bearish in particular.

What worries me is the simultaneous and sizeable drop in both stock markets and BTC on Thursday. That has me sliding back towards my March/April outlook, that the mid-term outcome for BTC is tied to stocks and the global economic recovery.

Sentiment in both markets has been moderately bullish, so we shouldn't be surprised by a significant bearish shakeout. Thursday's drop in the S&P 500 was the worst seen in months, indicating that investors may be getting weary about the recovery and the uptick in COVID-19 cases. This could be a bad omen for BTC too.

[Yamifoud]

Definitely we can still jump over $10k barrier as we had surpasses it already but just to figure out that it won't be that easy this time knowing that the economic situation of the people is still not in good shape. We are still facing the pandemic sentiment which also is a barrier for crypto to grow as investors are also worried about. May we see a huge market uplift someday but just like a normal scenario, it will fall down back again and have a repeated scenario all the time. Until this time, we can assured for a bullish season or might take into a hard bearish movement.

[pooya87]

what you drew on that chart can not be considered a "sharp" increase, it is barely a regular increase even though it is above a major resistance. an actual sharp increase should be much bigger than that to at least $11k and if that happens there is no coming back from it since it will start a chain of events that brings back a lot of the investors that are currently waiting to jump in which would then make the rise even bigger.
additionally even if price went to a little above $10k the drop has no reason to be to $7k!!! such movement makes no sense at all. at this point $7k can only happen either if someone dumps a very massive amount of bitcoin or some major negative event starts.

[STT]

Good to have a plan but why would making a new high be a time to go short or take a negative bias especially, reasonable to guess but I dont see that signal as a reason its going to go down.     I was just looking back to Feb for how it left a bullish trend then and what did daily bars look like before it processed from positive to neutral then negative.   Far quicker a process then we've had recently but perhaps its a good reference for brevity



So within up trend, a decline and leaving trend, green bar up to recheck prior trend then quite a sharp reversal down that encompasses the entire green bar up.   Back to the prior decline line, now some kind of support.  Now the important point is the series of lower highs, each attempt has less energy and we finally lose altitude as the breadth of the market recognises a downturn.

   Obviously we had the virus news so its more defined then now where nobody knows, however its similar pricing and fair reference.

[Gozie51]

From the view I have I think price is still going to be up. A daily time chart is still showing a positive movement up to above $10,000 but until after this week for that confirmation to clear up.

[mersal]

There is no sharp increase in the past week,so where your predictions comes from?

Price is likely to stay in $9500 for few more weeks then only we can find whether it will move upward or downward but it more likely will go upward since it has not such bad news to pull down the prices.

[STT]

I thought we already had the sharp rise, I did daily bars on this but the OP chart you can see start of June its sharp because it declines right back down again.   We since went sideways alot so now people unsure, I think its tired and needs some reset to occur.



I've not drawn in the trigger point or the support that might fail but its quite obvious how often we've formed lows in this area.   Add in the 50 day MA, its not a situation we can ignore without apprehension.   Various time frames always differ in bias and I cant judge so well further out till I see strength tested and we've done little but imo we've wasted enough time idling here.

[okala]

This is close to 10day that you make this prediction but bitcoin has not do well. It has been limited and trap down in a range tend. Bitcoin is moving towards were we have been having bad market and that is in July and August of months years.

[justdimin]

Right now, we are neither seeing a sharp increase and we are not seeing any decrease neither, nothing is happening and it is scaring me. I have been involved with bitcoin for longer than most people and I can honestly tell you that I haven't seen it staying this still for a long time, maybe on the early days it was like this for a while but ever since 2014 there wasn't much standing stable for this long without moving much.

Definitely there was stable times before but it was usually 200-300 dollar level of spread between the prices, so if it was like $9.2k to $9.5k movements between each other I would totally understand but the spread dropped down as much as 50 dollars nowadays which is unheard of in at least 3 years and probably more like 5 years. Let's hope what OP said will come true eventually.

[pixie85]

This is close to 10day that you make this prediction but bitcoin has not do well. It has been limited and trap down in a range tend. Bitcoin is moving towards were we have been having bad market and that is in July and August of months years.

There are some analysts who predict that if 10 thousand gets broken once again the price will not stay there but overshoot by more than OP is predictiong. It could be 12-15 thousnad this time.

It's very possible that this move will be followed by a sharp correction, just like OP is predicting but a small move right above 10 thousand would break the long term bearish resistance that stopped Bitcoin at 10500 in March, 10000 in April and again 9900 in June. Closing a day above 10000 today could start a FOMO rally.

[exstasie]

There are some analysts who predict that if 10 thousand gets broken once again the price will not stay there but overshoot by more than OP is predictiong. It could be 12-15 thousnad this time.

I'm in this camp. If the market breaks above $10.5K then yearly resistance will be broken; shorters and sellers will pile back in; technical traders will begin favoring the long side; investors sitting in cash on the fence will buy back in. All of these point to strong upside momentum. In my opinion, the chances of failure at $10.8K are quite small. It'll be clear sailing until we get into the vicinity of the June 2019 blow off top.

If the June 10th pivot at $10K is broken, that will likely trigger some panic buying and we could see a break of $10.5K relatively quickly. I'm not sure how likely that is at the moment as the price action on the daily chart isn't particularly bullish.

We're about to get a 3rd daily close below the 50-day MA, hinting at a bearish mid-term trend reversal. The last time this happened was in February shortly before the crash to the $3,000s. Before that, it was in November 2019 before the month-long downtrend from the $8,000s to the $6,000s.