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Author Topic: Bitcoin sell-off rhythm  (Read 1676 times)
pent
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November 22, 2011, 12:08:14 PM
 #1

I found that start of massive sell-offs on bitcoin market looks very periodic with ~ 1 month period. This picture shows blue lines with  new lows starting from highest market price.



Closer to the fall start selloffs were a bit frequent.

In the mid of the picture they were much massive, but period was bigger.

And close to the right period shortened again. Looks like accordion with a center in September.

What is the source in those periods?
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November 22, 2011, 12:27:51 PM
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I do not know about this rhythm, but the capability of the human mind to see patterns in everything is amazing  Smiley

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pent
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November 22, 2011, 12:31:08 PM
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I do not know about this rhythm, but the capability of the human mind to see patterns in everything is amazing  Smiley
In last months I always had a feeling that something bad will happen @mtgox in the start-mid of the month. And this was true for now.
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November 22, 2011, 12:32:55 PM
 #4

You missed a sell off in the middle of the August and September lines.  But that doesn't fit your observation.

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November 22, 2011, 12:34:44 PM
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I didnt draw bounces and corrections. Just new lows.
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November 22, 2011, 12:49:02 PM
 #6

I do not know about this rhythm, but the capability of the human mind to see patterns in everything is amazing  Smiley
This is what is going on.  The fact is that Bitcoin has not been around long enough for any real cycles to play out.  Right now I feel we are still in the long tail of the summer bubble.  Also, the bitcoin market is so small that one semi-rich person can complete change the market and so could a few miners if they decide to dump. 

To be honest, no one can guess weather bitcoin is going to be at $10 or $1 by the the end of the year, unless they actively force the change with there own pocket book.

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November 22, 2011, 12:55:01 PM
 #7

I think we have about 1-2 weeks of stability before we have another sell off.  That'll probably get us down to near $1.5 -$1.9

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pent
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November 22, 2011, 12:56:42 PM
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To be honest, no one can guess weather bitcoin is going to be at $10 or $1 by the the end of the year, unless they actively force the change with there own pocket book.
Negative.

This guy has dropped 30k BTC on market just for lulz not so far ago. And this was OMFG English thread.

So what? Price was put back on previous trend line in a hours.

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November 22, 2011, 01:01:26 PM
 #9

Negative, that was Bitcoinica's bot liquidating a bunch of longs.  He confirmed it the day of the selloff.  But I guess if you just wanna make stuff up about graphs thats cool too.  Maybe you could draw some elliot waves around it or something. 

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November 22, 2011, 02:25:56 PM
 #10

Every selloff was further apart than the previous one.

How comes that you assume what we had a week ago was the selloff? If you look closer you see that between the big drops there are smaller corrections which do not go significantly below the last selloff.

So even while it was started by a large sale it was only a correction (no new lows) the big selloff is coming up. I know the bulls what to be that the market reversal but that happed every time we did hit the previous low.

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November 22, 2011, 06:03:26 PM
 #11

Negative, that was Bitcoinica's bot liquidating a bunch of longs.  He confirmed it the day of the selloff.  But I guess if you just wanna make stuff up about graphs thats cool too.  Maybe you could draw some elliot waves around it or something. 

To be precise what Zhoutong confirmed was the sell below 2, that was the second wave, the first one could very well be caused by that guy selling 30K.
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November 22, 2011, 10:13:22 PM
 #12

These wave theories are missing the mark. The BTCUSD market is not big enough to use such methods of prediction. Truly it strikes me as a strange manifest destiny, wagging the dog. So suddenly if everyone believes that 3 waves signal some sort of reversal, wouldn't it be in larger players interest to match the facts with the theories? In a small market like Bitcoin, it's very easy to accomplish.

Thanks for sharing.

-Jon

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November 22, 2011, 10:23:12 PM
 #13

I drew this up back in September:



I'm a fundamentals guy, but I still believe in wave patterns, even in something as small as this.  Like you say, large players can easily create false signals so it's foolish to rely too heavily on the charts, but the underlying market psychology still exists.

But the waves still start with an event.  There were a bunch of them there.  It'd be nice if someone could make another chart with more recent news.

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pent
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December 03, 2011, 03:08:28 PM
 #14

In last months I always had a feeling that something bad will happen @mtgox in the start-mid of the month. And this was true for now.
Okay, this is the start of month and here is the sell-off again
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December 03, 2011, 03:16:01 PM
 #15

You missed October and November. Put your chart into log scale or put the volume into currency and it will be more apparent.

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December 03, 2011, 03:23:22 PM
 #16

Interesting, Pent. I've seen a similar pattern (each of the cyan blue are also broken into roughly three rhythmic patterns):



I'm a fundamentals guy, but I still believe in wave patterns, even in something as small as this.  Like you say, large players can easily create false signals so it's foolish to rely too heavily on the charts, but the underlying market psychology still exists.

But the waves still start with an event.  There were a bunch of them there.  It'd be nice if someone could make another chart with more recent news.

I esrever the effect and cause, but you otherwise agree with I. For example, no matter what the outcome of the Mt. Gox French court case, something will happen in the market and we will attribute the action to the case. The market reacts if bitcoin is a currency or it reacts if bitcoin is not a currency. Which way? It matters not. But the waves and sentiment do.

The market is like a woman. It does not matter if the conversation is positive or negative, if it's logical or beautiful. What matters is that the she-market is engaged, intimate, liquid, and emotional. If you read her emotions and react rationally though empathetically, she can be manipulated but never controlled. Money helps.

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December 03, 2011, 03:54:45 PM
 #17

Interesting, Pent. I've seen a similar pattern (each of the cyan blue are also broken into roughly three rhythmic patterns):



I'm a fundamentals guy, but I still believe in wave patterns, even in something as small as this.  Like you say, large players can easily create false signals so it's foolish to rely too heavily on the charts, but the underlying market psychology still exists.

But the waves still start with an event.  There were a bunch of them there.  It'd be nice if someone could make another chart with more recent news.

I esrever the effect and cause, but you otherwise agree with I. For example, no matter what the outcome of the Mt. Gox French court case, something will happen in the market and we will attribute the action to the case. The market reacts if bitcoin is a currency or it reacts if bitcoin is not a currency. Which way? It matters not. But the waves and sentiment do.

The market is like a woman. It does not matter if the conversation is positive or negative, if it's logical or beautiful. What matters is that the she-market is engaged, intimate, liquid, and emotional. If you read her emotions and react rationally though empathetically, she can be manipulated but never controlled. Money helps.

I understand that you are positing some sort of wave hypothesis. I can understand a little confirmation bias when looking for a phenomenon, but at some point you need to filter bias by finding something causal. Comparing the market to women means that somehow you can also predict women? You are right about one thing with both markets and women. Money does indeed help.

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netrin
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December 03, 2011, 04:06:35 PM
 #18

I'm a fundamentals guy, but I still believe in wave patterns, even in something as small as this.  Like you say, large players can easily create false signals so it's foolish to rely too heavily on the charts, but the underlying market psychology still exists.

But the waves still start with an event.  There were a bunch of them there.  It'd be nice if someone could make another chart with more recent news.

I esrever the effect and cause, but you otherwise agree with I. For example, no matter what the outcome of the Mt. Gox French court case, something will happen in the market and we will attribute the action to the case. The market reacts if bitcoin is a currency or it reacts if bitcoin is not a currency. Which way? It matters not. But the waves and sentiment do.

The market is like a woman. It does not matter if the conversation is positive or negative, if it's logical or beautiful. What matters is that the she-market is engaged, intimate, liquid, and emotional. If you read her emotions and react rationally though empathetically, she can be manipulated but never controlled. Money helps.

I understand that you are positing some sort of wave hypothesis. I can understand a little confirmation bias when looking for a phenomenon, but at some point you need to filter bias by finding something causal. Comparing the market to women means that somehow you can also predict women? You are right about one thing with both markets and women. Money does indeed help.

The cause is the cause of the cause of an effect. In a feedback loop, the initial cause is often completely lost and irrelevant. The market reacts to itself. Price movement is its own cause. Ever seen a woman cry because she is crying?

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December 03, 2011, 05:23:36 PM
 #19

The cause is the cause of the cause of an effect. In a feedback loop, the initial cause is often completely lost and irrelevant. The market reacts to itself. Price movement is its own cause. Ever seen a woman cry because she is crying?

You got a weeper, huh? That's why God gave us credit cards.

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December 03, 2011, 05:42:05 PM
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Quote
It is probably safe to assume, that if you live in the Arctic you are already a stark raving mad lunatic. Pibloktoq is a condition that is prevalent in winter (how shocking!) and is exclusive to Eskimo societies living within the Arctic Circle. The condition is characterized by an abrupt dissociative episode of intense hysteria, frequently followed by convulsive seizures and coma lasting up to 12 hours. Symptoms can include intense screaming, uncontrolled wild behavior, depression, coprophagia (i.e. eating feces- nothing like warm poo on a cold day), insensitivity to extreme cold (such as running around in the snow naked), echolalia (senseless repetition of overheard words, e.g. red rum, red rum) and other irrational and dangerous acts. This condition is most often seen in Eskimo women and is linked to vitamin A toxicity (hypervitaminosis A) found in the native Eskimo diet which consists primarily of raw organ meats, arctic fish and mammal liver.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piblokto
http://www.highestfive.com/mind/crazy-in-our-own-ways-mental-illness-around-the-world/

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