Miners are holding, small miners are out, supply declines, what next?

[malekbaba]

According to glassnode, miners are sending less coins to exchanges, transaction number dropped to decades low actually. Miners are holding or selling just small percentage does not mean price will spike, though. Usually they are day trader and after a while they will have to sale to meet up their expenses.
Again, due to btc halving, miners are getting less reward.

So what will happen next?
Miners will start selling after a while, supplies of btc is low, there is persistant demand on btc, small miners are out fron the play, so many calculations. What do you think?

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[pooya87]

According to glassnode, miners are sending less coins to exchanges,

that is not true.
most miners were never sending coins to exchanges in first place. majority of them, specially the big ones, sell coins over the counter and to individuals anonymously. since the coins a miner receives is "fresh" there is a better market for them. specially if they send the new coins directly to the buyers address where it will sit for a very long time.

transaction number dropped to decades low actually.

a decade ago, that is 2010, there weren't even 1% of the current number of transactions.
example from 2011: https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=id(..110000)#
there are less than 20 tx per block while today we have at least 2000 tx per block.

[malekbaba]

According to glassnode, miners are sending less coins to exchanges,

that is not true.
most miners were never sending coins to exchanges in first place. majority of them, specially the big ones, sell coins over the counter and to individuals anonymously. since the coins a miner receives is "fresh" there is a better market for them. specially if they send the new coins directly to the buyers address where it will sit for a very long time.

transaction number dropped to decades low actually.

a decade ago, that is 2010, there weren't even 1% of the current number of transactions.
example from 2011: https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=id(..110000)#
there are less than 20 tx per block while today we have at least 2000 tx per block.

To whom it may concern.
https://www.coindesk.com/outflow-of-bitcoin-from-miners-at-lows-not-seen-since-2010

Miners are getting low rewards after halving. And small miners will be kicked out if btc price does not go higher. They will have to stop mining operation if they make losses. I wanted to say less bitcoins were being transferred from miners addresses.

[larus]

Whales are controling the market anyway. Miners could create big impact only if they will decide to sell everything in a short amount of time

[alani123]

Very recently there was an uptick in mining power. Which was rather unexpected to see such a large rise for mining power after the recent halving.
Other than that, I think that the halving should also be accounted for. Of course transactions from miners on exchanges are low. There aren't that many coins to go around.
Potentially the new miners are now looking to trade and are now contributing to skewing the statistics of miner coins transacted to exchanges.

Moreover, newly minted coins have no trade and I could see people looking to buy them potentially even a little higher than market price. I wouldn't be surprised if miners had direct buyers they were selling their coins at. Maybe they are selling right away, and we just don't know that it is an exchange. So these statistics aren't very reliable.

[maenauaras]

Mining is a commercial activity and therefore not selling them means that they are betting that the price will rise in the future and thus they sell with the minimum costs to cover.
I do not care about such statistics, they do not represent much, we have about 4 million coins that have not been mined and that will steal much longer, so what affects the price is demand, not supply.

Taxes are one of the reasons why they are discouraged from selling.

since the coins a miner receives is "fresh" there is a better market for them. specially if they send the new coins directly to the buyers address where it will sit for a very long time.

fresh with 2 TX? Who would be interested in buying it at a higher price?
Also, the miners will not sell large quantities to unknown people, it is better for them to use Binance.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

According to glassnode, miners are sending less coins to exchanges, transaction number dropped to decades low actually. Miners are holding or selling just small percentage does not mean price will spike, though. Usually they are day trader and after a while they will have to sale to meet up their expenses.
Again, due to btc halving, miners are getting less reward.

Be careful with glassnode data though, it seems that the people behind has some intention to fit their narratives. Personally, I think whales is using them to manipulate the price, so take everything with a grain of salt, just saying.

So what will happen next?
Miners will start selling after a while, supplies of btc is low, there is persistant demand on btc, small miners are out fron the play, so many calculations. What do you think?

Don't make things complicated, you just have to look at the basic economic of supply and demand, that's it.

[jossiel]

If that data is accurate, they're saving it for the rainy days. They probably have themselves cover for the expense of their operation while mining new coins for a better price in the future.

The lesser coins that we have, the higher price that we'll be getting soon. As a holder, I have no intention to sell anytime but just like them if for smaller portions and there's an urgency, I'll be doing the same. There is no need to ask next, just focus to yourself and hold.

[pooya87]

since the coins a miner receives is "fresh" there is a better market for them. specially if they send the new coins directly to the buyers address where it will sit for a very long time.

fresh with 2 TX? Who would be interested in buying it at a higher price?
Also, the miners will not sell large quantities to unknown people, it is better for them to use Binance.

it is a niche market so there are people who would be willing to buy bitcoin like that and only like that. it may seem strange to you but it exists, like those who buy collectible (physical) bitcoins instead of bitcoin.
as for selling, Binance is literary the worst place the miners could go to sell their coins. for starters it is an altcoin exchange and is focusing on trading altcoins and its main market is Tether with fiat being the secondary smaller market. not to mention there is a lot of hoops they have to jump into before they could sell while selling over the counter is a lot easier and more profitable.

[pawanjain]

To whom it may concern.
https://www.coindesk.com/outflow-of-bitcoin-from-miners-at-lows-not-seen-since-2010

Miners are getting low rewards after halving. And small miners will be kicked out if btc price does not go higher. They will have to stop mining operation if they make losses. I wanted to say less bitcoins were being transferred from miners addresses.

To be honest, that's quite true. Mining is no longer profitable for small miners since their profits would now be eaten up in the mining charges.
Only the big miners would continue mining as long as it's still profitable for them.

If any manufacturer creates a mining equipment which will turn mining profitable again for BTC only then may be the number of people mining BTC will increase again. But this does not seem to be happening any time soon.

But there's no need to worry since the difficulty will be readjusted accordingly and transactions will be getting confirmed as before.
It's just a matter of time when it will become a norm.

As for the holding of bitcoins, may be they are holding it to sell a higher price since the mining rewards are reduced by half.

[enhu]

Are fresh coins sold over the counter have a special price of simply just the market price still?
It would be logical for the miners to sell over the countre if the price would be higher, possibly true after all its fresh and no previous data on the chain. Miners will still sell their coins to cover the expenses plus the maintenance of the devices including the power bills. They'd probably sell more coins for the price is lesser just to cover the expenses.

[CarnagexD]

Did you hear about those miners who are quitting mining bitcoin but instead invest to it? When halving occurred, miners are unable to get huge rewards that's why they think that quitting may come to their choices. Small miners are the most prone to bitcoin's price drop here. Once they experience losses, this will really cause a big problem to the bitcoin mining company.

I'm pretty sure that operating bitcoin mining companies will really become more expensive than earning it. But once we believe in the value of bitcoin, i'm pretty sure that better days will come to it. As halving occurs, supply will be minimize but there will be an increase in demand in the near future. If that happens, there will surely a huge spike in its price in the market.

[thesmallgod]

This has been predicted even before the halving and the recent post halving have confirmed that. Many miners will not be able to afford the mining cost which will drive them into seeking for other means they can use to lower the cost. So for the main time the number of miners might be reduce until they figured out some other sustainable way to optimized the profit from mining. The effect of this on bitcoin price include lower trading volume and less volatility. Big miners will continue to dominate for a while. This is also a room for mining improvement and don't be surprise we may see another improved mining device with low energy requirements

[buwaytress]

Yeah, I've been reading about it too. 90% of the year so far spent in nett accumulation.

Supply will decline but really, it's just been exchanges and OTC that have been buying up miner supply anyway. There's plenty on offer to go around, orderbooks are still large. And most institutionals -- if you buy that they're all waiting there in the wings -- won't be switching from derivatives to spot so it'll be a while before the supply pinch comes, if ever.