Anyone else see a big bitcoin upwards movement coming very soon?

[thecodebear]

Bitcoin has now been roughly in the 9000s for a month and a half now, establishing where it had been before the pandemic panic crash. I see news of miner selling being down, Grayscale buying up everything that is being mined since the halving (and since miner selling is down that means that one fund alone is buying up well more than all the newly minted bitcoin hitting the market these days, and bitcoin long term holding rising as well. There's also a ton of money the past few months just sitting in stable coins - likely people holding back waiting to see where the market will go.

Seems to me the only thing holding bitcoin's price back right now is short term bearish or more likely uncertain sentiment. Five digits has once again become a psychological level. As soon as traders stop taking profit every time bitcoin goes to high 9000's or low 10's I think we're gonna see Bitcoin shoot up by several thousand dollars in a period of a few weeks sometime this summer, very likely in July. A psychological dam has been building up and when it breaks we could see Bitcoin go from $10k to $15k in a month, and very possibly never go back down to four digits again. We know the money is sitting there waiting, institutional and retail investment in the market is way up compared to a year ago when it hit $13k, and of course new supply is halved. I think a summer monsoon is coming that might shock some people. Think we'll see over $15k in July or August before a pullback to perhaps $11k as we say goodbye to four digits forever this summer. The next step to the inevitable next exponential explosion in the market over the next couple of years.

Are you all seeing what I am seeing?

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[pooya87]

miners selling is not down, they are still selling their coins as before since they have the same costs including electricity bill as before. what has been "down" is the number of coins that miners have to sell which is expected as they are now earning 50% less than before and it is a big contributor to the overall decrease of sell pressure on the market as a whole.

There's also a ton of money the past few months just sitting in stable coins - likely people holding back waiting to see where the market will go.

first of all that would never affect bitcoin price. and secondly if you check the shitcoin, i mean altcoin market you will see that it is not true. the "stable coins" are going in and out of shitcoins that are being pumped and dumped every day specifically because bitcoin price is stable nowadays (for nearly 2 months) which is a pretty common thing for many years where traders migrate to altcoin market to pump and dump shitcoins.
right now 24 hour trading volume of tether is $5 billion higher than 24 hour trading volume of bitcoin. when bitcoin starts rising all that volume goes into dumping shitcoins and converting it to bitcoin. again tether doesn't come in during that process and won't affect bitcoin price.

Seems to me the only thing holding bitcoin's price back right now is short term bearish or more likely uncertain sentiment.

i completely agree specially with bold part. bitcoin investors have always had the tendency to be uncertain every time price becomes stable like these days. they prefer waiting for a signal to jump in rather than accumulating at the bottom. that is why we see stable prices be followed by a big FOMO

[mk4]

Think we'll see over $15k in July or August before a pullback to perhaps $11k as we say goodbye to four digits forever this summer.

Ah. I couldn't even count how many times I've already seen the "last time to buy bitcoin under X" statement. And you know what happened? Those lows have been broken every single time.

What I'd say is, continue increasing your bitcoin stack, and just enjoy the roller-coaster ride regardless how high and low it goes. Because trust me when I say that no one knows what's going to happen with the price.

Though I'd at least give you a bit of props for having an actual theory on why you think the prices will go up, rather than making a bland and empty post.

[RealMalatesta]

I am parted and thorn between a big increase or a big decrease. I do see a big increase coming and it looks like everything is bullish and people are optimistic and by all accounts the price should be going very high, I see at least $12k coming and I am filled with a great job right now.

However at the same time I am a bit worried because there has been plenty of times in bitcoin world where I thought the price would go up but some whale came up and sold $10k bitcoins or $30k bitcoins etc etc and caused the price to drop just as the public was getting ready to see price going up. It means if there is nothing unexpected going on the price would go up and that is the sure fire thing, however if there is something unexpected and honestly unexpected thing happening is expected in this world, that means anything could happen.

[STT]

Nope I think a decline first then we speculate on a grander rise.   You want to build a tall building, you must take maybe years creating a broad foundation to stabilise the base first.     This whole year of 2020 is in a fog or neutral if you prefer less dramatic terms, 10k is no negative by any measure and if we end December there then remember it should be taken as a great positive.     We have already tried higher this year and last year, I believe it was predictable we'd pull back from that and a year to do so is not unprecedented.   I cant say I know the reason to peak and decline, maybe it was some scheme or mis-selling in Asia like some said but it doesn't matter as the market is bigger then one particular use but we'll need more time to match buyers and sellers better.
   BTC has a ton of speculators, lots spongy action to wring out like a wet rag is the result.   Extreme speculation is net sum zero game, the base bullish case for BTC is utility provided to society and a need to transmit value securely; if thats good then we rise further over years.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

There's also a ton of money the past few months just sitting in stable coins - likely people holding back waiting to see where the market will go.

Even after the increase in prices, I still use a part of my bitcoin holdings as a currency of the internet. This has been my way of life right after I got to know about bitcoin. I buy at a certain point of time, get some smaller stash in campaigns save them up and use them whenever I like for buying stuffs over the internet. I hold a limited amount of bitcoin as a long term holding and neither I do trade them drastically here and there to receive short profits. Bitcoin has helped me in buying stuffs at cheaper costs i.e At around in the month of January I bought a product which was $400 worth in bitcoin. I paid around just over 0.05BTC when they were in the $8k range. All of a sudden in the month of March, the price dumped to $4k which would have made me  to spend 0.1BTC where practically I spent only $200 from my holdings if we compare the $4k range.

This is how the volatile markets helps me in buying products at cheaper costs by using low bitcoin. If bitcoin rises in price, my bitcoin value in the wallet would lower as I invest a steady amount in crypto from time to time regardless of pumps and dumps. But I stack them, when prices are low and use a major part of them to buy products when bitcoin price is higher. On the other hand, stable coins never really allows us to enjoy the cheaper products which when bought in bitcoin!!!

My part of evaluation for the products which I always buy cheaper :

Fix a product which you are going to buy - Let's say the price is over $100
Buy $100 worth of bitcoin when price hits new yearly lows - Let's say $3500 - 0.028BTC
Buy the product when the price hits new yearly highs - Let's say $12000 - 0.008BTC

Think we'll see over $15k in July or August before a pullback to perhaps $11k as we say goodbye to four digits forever this summer.

If you invest wisely as I do, you will get the product you desired along with a stash of free bitcoin 

[thecodebear]

Nope I think a decline first then we speculate on a grander rise.   You want to build a tall building, you must take maybe years creating a broad foundation to stabilise the base first.     This whole year of 2020 is in a fog or neutral if you prefer less dramatic terms, 10k is no negative by any measure and if we end December there then remember it should be taken as a great positive.     We have already tried higher this year and last year, I believe it was predictable we'd pull back from that and a year to do so is not unprecedented.   I cant say I know the reason to peak and decline, maybe it was some scheme or mis-selling in Asia like some said but it doesn't matter as the market is bigger then one particular use but we'll need more time to match buyers and sellers better.
   BTC has a ton of speculators, lots spongy action to wring out like a wet rag is the result.   Extreme speculation is net sum zero game, the base bullish case for BTC is utility provided to society and a need to transmit value securely; if thats good then we rise further over years.

Ummm, what would you call 2017 - 2020?? Three years establishing bitcoin in the 4 digits, with brief excursions to 5 digits. Yeah it takes years to create a broad foundation....and that is exactly what has been done the past 3 years.

[thecodebear]

miners selling is not down, they are still selling their coins as before since they have the same costs including electricity bill as before. what has been "down" is the number of coins that miners have to sell which is expected as they are now earning 50% less than before and it is a big contributor to the overall decrease of sell pressure on the market as a whole.

There's also a ton of money the past few months just sitting in stable coins - likely people holding back waiting to see where the market will go.

first of all that would never affect bitcoin price. and secondly if you check the shitcoin, i mean altcoin market you will see that it is not true. the "stable coins" are going in and out of shitcoins that are being pumped and dumped every day specifically because bitcoin price is stable nowadays (for nearly 2 months) which is a pretty common thing for many years where traders migrate to altcoin market to pump and dump shitcoins.
right now 24 hour trading volume of tether is $5 billion higher than 24 hour trading volume of bitcoin. when bitcoin starts rising all that volume goes into dumping shitcoins and converting it to bitcoin. again tether doesn't come in during that process and won't affect bitcoin price.

Seems to me the only thing holding bitcoin's price back right now is short term bearish or more likely uncertain sentiment.

i completely agree specially with bold part. bitcoin investors have always had the tendency to be uncertain every time price becomes stable like these days. they prefer waiting for a signal to jump in rather than accumulating at the bottom. that is why we see stable prices be followed by a big FOMO

I don't see how you possibly argue lots of money sitting on the side in stable coins will have no effect on bitcoin. Obviously it does.

That is money that is literally waiting to buy in once investors feel more certain about what direction things will go. Sure there is always a certain amount float in stablecoins between trades, but my point is that amount has gone way up this year, which means lots of people are waiting until they are more sure how to invest, because of the uncertainty of what bitcoin's next move is now that it has been jammed at $10k for most of this year.

[Yamifoud]

I expect the grand rise in the 4th quarter, not in the 3rd quarter for the reason that we are still lack of market support from investors due to the economic status. It can be possible to have a passive market recover late this year and continue to move farther next year as we expect for the halving impact. But somehow, we can't expect the market to make a remarkable rise the same it shown last 2017 where we reach into almost $20k. Perhaps, another $15k is much closer to it this year.

[sheenshane]

snipped-
Are you all seeing what I am seeing?

Yes, I also have seen and understand your theory of Bitcoin price begun to bloom but I have also different insights about why Bitcoin will raise after few months, either the 3rd quarter or 4rth of this year.

So, here what I have got, PayPal Bitcoin Rumor Boosts $12K BTC Price Rally Chances. There's a rumor that Paypal will have an option of crypto acceptance and might trading as well. Due to the large population of Paypal, this is good for massive adoption that might the reason of price increase. Sorry, I'm kinda off-topic here but I can't give certain forecasts of Bitcoin price if I don't have any source. But we're the intent here, to see Bitcoin will pump up.

[Vaculin]

I'm neutral, I still have doubts on the market, it could be bearish or bullish anytime but if ever it will be bullish and bitcoin will rise based on your prediction, I still think that bitcoin price will correct and we will go back to 4 digits. I'm more conservative right now after seeing how unstable the market is,  we are still struggling to break the $10k barrier and stayed at that level, last attempt succeeded but it was a short stay, bitcoin was dump thereafter.

[exstasie]

A psychological dam has been building up and when it breaks we could see Bitcoin go from $10k to $15k in a month, and very possibly never go back down to four digits again. We know the money is sitting there waiting, institutional and retail investment in the market is way up compared to a year ago when it hit $13k, and of course new supply is halved. I think a summer monsoon is coming that might shock some people. Think we'll see over $15k in July or August before a pullback to perhaps $11k as we say goodbye to four digits forever this summer. The next step to the inevitable next exponential explosion in the market over the next couple of years.

Are you all seeing what I am seeing?

Your scenario sounds a lot like David's:

I agree with that idea if $10.5K is broken with authority.

I'm still feeling somewhat neutral on the current range. BTC is just following the stock market right now, and in my opinion stocks are unpredictable. So many variables: the Fed, the elections, lockdowns and reopening, unemployment, COVID-19 rates, speculation about a successful vaccine or treatment, and so on.

This idea is still valid. I'm still open to a dump to the $6,000s or $5,000s.

[LogitechMouse]

I want to see an upward movement towards the price of Bitcoin soon but I don't think that it will happen unless there is a catalyst that will make it happen like news, articles etc.

This is my support and resistance for the price of BTC:
Resistance - $10,000 which is right now the psychological resistance
Support - 200 Daily MA.

If $10,000 will be touched and remain there for a long time then it can be a sign that it will go upwards movement. On the other hand, the 200 daily MA is a strong support for BTC and as long as we don't go below that line I remain bullish on BTC.

[thecodebear]

snipped-
Are you all seeing what I am seeing?

Yes, I also have seen and understand your theory of Bitcoin price begun to bloom but I have also different insights about why Bitcoin will raise after few months, either the 3rd quarter or 4rth of this year.

So, here what I have got, PayPal Bitcoin Rumor Boosts $12K BTC Price Rally Chances. There's a rumor that Paypal will have an option of crypto acceptance and might trading as well. Due to the large population of Paypal, this is good for massive adoption that might the reason of price increase. Sorry, I'm kinda off-topic here but I can't give certain forecasts of Bitcoin price if I don't have any source. But we're the intent here, to see Bitcoin will pump up.

Yeah I almost mentioned the PayPal and Venmo rumors, but that's just extra. Even without that, it isn't needed for an incoming rise. Really the only thing holding bitcoin under $10k right now is the large amount of uncertainty traders and investors have - traders sell anytime there's a small uptrend because they figure it'll go down to low 9000s again, and investors have stock piles of cash sitting on the sidelines in stablecoins because they also are uncertain where the market will go. As soon as that psychological dam breaks we're gonna see a multi-thousand dollar uptrend. I doubt the uncertainty will hold for even another month. The only thing I could see that will delay it is if investors in general start freaking out again and start pulling money out of everything , stocks, bitcoin, gold, etc. But unless there's another multiple-market-wide sell off I doubt we'll even be thinking about $10k come August.

[thecodebear]

A psychological dam has been building up and when it breaks we could see Bitcoin go from $10k to $15k in a month, and very possibly never go back down to four digits again. We know the money is sitting there waiting, institutional and retail investment in the market is way up compared to a year ago when it hit $13k, and of course new supply is halved. I think a summer monsoon is coming that might shock some people. Think we'll see over $15k in July or August before a pullback to perhaps $11k as we say goodbye to four digits forever this summer. The next step to the inevitable next exponential explosion in the market over the next couple of years.

Are you all seeing what I am seeing?

Your scenario sounds a lot like David's:

I agree with that idea if $10.5K is broken with authority.

I'm still feeling somewhat neutral on the current range. BTC is just following the stock market right now, and in my opinion stocks are unpredictable. So many variables: the Fed, the elections, lockdowns and reopening, unemployment, COVID-19 rates, speculation about a successful vaccine or treatment, and so on.

This idea is still valid. I'm still open to a dump to the $6,000s or $5,000s.

Yeah that chart looks roughly right to me. I see a $15k-$17k this summer, which gets overextended and then a correction back close to $10k this Fall. That is of course assuming investors don't engage in another panic sell. Stock market is well overextended at this point as it has completely lost touch with the economy, while Bitcoin is obviously not overextended as it is still in early-mid stage of long term bull market. So I wouldn't put too much emphasis on stock market correlation. I expect stocks to fall some in the coming months, the only way bitcoin is affected is if they fall sharply as that would suggest investors are getting back into cash for the time being so the sell off would likely hit bitcoin as well as it did in March.

I think 5000s/6000s are long gone at this point (outside of a possible V-shaped panic sell). I mean we only hit that low this year because of the pandemic panic sell, and it didn't take long at all to move out of that territory. In general I would say mid-to-high 8000s are still very much in play until the dam breaks, but without a major multi-market selling event I don't think we'll go much under 9000, if it does at all. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if in like a week this thing breaks open and it's over $11k, or on the long end maybe a month or two if we get one last dip to 8000s.

Anyways, just one man's opinion!

[pooya87]

~
I don't see how you possibly argue lots of money sitting on the side in stable coins will have no effect on bitcoin. Obviously it does.

That is money that is literally waiting to buy in once investors feel more certain about what direction things will go. Sure there is always a certain amount float in stablecoins between trades, but my point is that amount has gone way up this year, which means lots of people are waiting until they are more sure how to invest, because of the uncertainty of what bitcoin's next move is now that it has been jammed at $10k for most of this year.

money does, tether doesn't. at least not as much as many people think.

the total amount of tether has gone up because bitfinex keeps printing huge amounts of it and they partly do it to satisfy the altcoin trading volume that has been growing a lot and the major altcoin exchanges and bitfinex itself all focus on tether.
also if bitcoin/tether price goes up (people buy bitcoin with tether) the bitcoin/USD price is not going to move, instead the arbitrage would bring it  down. the reason is that bitcoin/USD volume is about 4900 times more than bitcoin/Tether (~98% versus 2% of total bitcoin trading volume in Fiats+Tether)

[bitbunnny]

To be honest, I don't. I lack some factors in the market that would tell in favour of strong Bitcoin price upwards trend. Also in previous posts I didn't see any explanations or solid grounds to support such theory, only wishful thinking and subjective impressions.
I think there will be no significant changes in Bitcoin price in upcoming period, to my opinion it will continue to fluctuate in current range.

[btc78]

I expect the grand rise in the 4th quarter, not in the 3rd quarter for the reason that we are still lack of market support from investors due to the economic status. It can be possible to have a passive market recover late this year and continue to move farther next year as we expect for the halving impact. But somehow, we can't expect the market to make a remarkable rise the same it shown last 2017 where we reach into almost $20k. Perhaps, another $15k is much closer to it this year.

for the obvious reason that Pandemic effect is still in our market,so what we can expect from that is the More volatile and
 less support from many investors here in Bitcoin.


For me personally?the Upwards is always temporary now,and even in the middle of 2021?i know that market will still
 suffer and that is what we must expect so if ever the bull comes earlier then
our positivity will be maintained.

[Harlot]

Bitcoin has now been roughly in the 9000s for a month and a half now

This just shows that we are still consolidating. Bitcoin being somehow stable in a level only means it's still undecided yet if it wants to go up or down as this is the true nature of any asset consolidating. That's why every analysis we are seeing about signs of a breakout as well as a breakdown are still inaccurate as of the moment as aside from the lack of price movement we still also don't see any kind of action in it's traded volume. Not unless we see BTC reach prices near the support or resistances we can't really see where will Bitcoin will go.

[el kaka22]

The volume is not really there right now, back in the day there was a volume thanks to miners or thanks to big traders but right now the pandemic happened and even though the price is doing alright there is still some sort of volume lack that causes the price to be manipulated very easily, that is why I think the best case for us right now is to wait around and see what it will do but without volume going up I do not believe any movement to be authentic and organic.

However, if we could see the volume eventually going up during the third quarter we will be able to see where that money came from and what that money wants from bitcoin, we could see a lot of sales coming in and increasing the volume but in a way that drops the price or we could see just the reverse and see the price going up as well. We will have to wait and see.