Is the US economy suddenly recovering?

[Hydrogen]

The mortality curve of corona appears to be on the decline ^. Infections are rising while lethality appears to significantly decrease.

The media is trying to hype a second deadly wave of the virus. Somewhere between those conflicting paradigms is where we may determine whether a quick recovery is on the way. If the lethality of the virus continues to diminish, eventually there will be no need to quarantine or close businesses. Life will return to some semblance of normality. As near to it as we might get.

The US stock market would seem to indicate a recovery may be imminent. Equity market whale traders would be expected to have the best and most accurate information on the topic. I hope the US stock markets near recovery indicates the worst of the crisis is passed. The only thing casting doubt on the accuracy of market recovery is the potential of the federal reserve injecting liquidity to artificially prop markets up above where they should be.

Personally, I'm hoping for a quick recovery. Followed by greater decentralization of supply lines, trade and everything else which might help to prevent a disaster like this in the future.

[TIDOVEE]

From the analysis, necessary steps has been taking in time to minimize the deep effect by the pandemic. Traveling well controlled, hotel services dropped, trading was also controlled and people cooperated and complied. Though the graph showed economy has not been productive but when those who are managing the economy are secured the economy will recover faster as they resume

[Negotiation]

It was obvious that in the long run we would have seen the US economy recover, but honestly I wasn’t expecting US economy to recover so fast, or is this just another false positive for us?. I’m referring to the article posted by CNBC where they have shown stats which proves that the US economy has started recovering despite many states yet being in lockdown. What are your thoughts on this, will the US economy recover faster than what we had anticipated?.

Source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/here-are-five-charts-illustrating-the-us-economic-recovery-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html

Since the United States lifted the lockdown and everything is back to normal businesses have reopened and the impact of the virus in their country may have been much under control. But it is a long time to recover from the damage done to the country's economy by the virus Since the US has started everything it will return to normal more easily than other countries.

[Josefjix]

In my country, after the government eased the lockdown to an extent where people could go out, markets and businesses could open and some other sectors, it passed a wrong message to our citizens that things are totally back to normal and the economy recovering, but after some weeks now, positive cases of Covid-19 increased and the government are forced again to shut down the states that are affected the most.

Imo it'll be like this for some time, there is prolly no economic recovery in sight at the moment, even in the US. In the long run some countries will recover faster than others, as they have always had a better economy and America is one of those countries, but for now with all the the talk of rising unemployment and recession, they still have a long way to go.

The government has not been coherent with situations surrounding the invisible enemy in the person of Covid-19. Easing the lockdown isn't the solution to the problem entirely.Are there measures put in places by the people and the government to ensure social distancing is maintained to a certain stage? I know we still have a long battle with the Covid-19.

Some economies will recover faster than others it is simple ideology behind strategic planners in the economy sector of the fast rising economies.

[stompix]

The governments and people of Europe are dealing with this virus incredibly more effectively than we are in the US. As you say, some countries which have eased lockdown restrictions too early have seen a surge of cases and had to reimpose lockdown. However, large areas of the US seem to have given up on lockdowns altogether. I also haven't seen any reports coming out of Europe comparable to the ones from around the US of thousands of people refusing to wear masks or refusing to comply with basic infection orevention measures.

Depends what you mean incredible...in the number of infectious cases, yeah Europe has done better, when it comes to deaths...nope.
The US with all the drama is still below France, Italy , Spain and the Uk, with Belgium in another league of its own.
If we go deeper and we compare the number of deaths per confirmed cases, it's even worse for Western Europe.

For example, France vs Us, per mil population.
Infection:
2,525  vs 8,242   France is better. 4.x
Deaths:
457    vs  393   US is better  1.11
Deaths per infection:
1/5     vs 1/20   US is better by 4x

The problem is what happens next...
We in Europe have somewhat managed to contain the virus, but we can't do this forever, sooner or later other cases will appear, and then others, you can't lock the whole continent.
At which point more people will get infected, another wave of infection and unfortunately deaths.
What would be interesting to know would be, if possible, the number of deaths per total infected people, a number no-one knows and it's just approximation, 5%-20% in some cases even 50%.
If the US has a higher rate like 30% of the population has come in contact with the virus it means the numbers of deaths will just triple if it's only 10%, it means 10x.

Just because you have saved your country now doesn't mean you can keep it locked forever and with this number of cases all over the world sooner or later even the countries that claim they've contained it will give up, and when this happens it will be just like the reverse of the Columbian exchange.

Back to the economy, I have a feeling it's going to be not so bad as some doomsday lovers want it to be nor it will recover in a flash, as I said in other threads before, right now I have a feeling it's going to be way less dramatic than the 2007 crisis. The car industry is back at 100%, so are all the businesses related to, agriculture didn't take a hit at all, the constructions are back, what is left is tourism but I think this will pick up also in 3-4 months. Of course, time will tell but I'm optimistic about what I'm seeing in my town and around me.

[peterurb]

I think, that yes. FED just printed money and everyone gets happy, except people whose money are getting less and less valuable. That's why people should spend their money on something which is not having so big inflation or just buy some things.

[exstasie]

The US stock market would seem to indicate a recovery may be imminent. Equity market whale traders would be expected to have the best and most accurate information on the topic.

The market is front running an actual economic recovery. That doesn't mean one is imminent, it just means investors are optimistic. They also know that worst comes to worst, the Fed will bail out the market and keep blood out of the streets.

Personally, I'm hoping for a quick recovery.

Aren't we all?

As a contrarian trader, I'm just nervous when I see lots of optimism. In terms of job losses, the current situation blows 2008 out of the water. It will take years to recover those jobs. If stock markets continue to new ATHs despite high double digit unemployment, it'll show how truly perverted the markets have become from central bank intervention.

[o_e_l_e_o]

The mortality curve of corona appears to be on the decline ^. Infections are rising while lethality appears to significantly decrease.

It seems so at the moment, but it's too early to say this for sure.

Compare the graph you posted with the graph I posted on the previous page. Peak new confirmed cases for the US was near the start of April. Peak deaths was mid to late April. There is a lag of 2 to 3 weeks between new cases and mortality rates. The graph you posted ends on June 22nd. 2 to 3 weeks before that, in early June, was the lowest number of daily new cases we have seen in the US since this all began. Now that cases are spiking again, it will be mid to late July before the mortality figure reflect this.

At which point more people will get infected, another wave of infection and unfortunately deaths.

Given the number of countries we have seen that have opened up and then had to reimpose lockdown restrictions, I would say a second wave is almost inevitable at this point. The big concern at the moment for healthcare systems is that for the Northern Hemisphere the second wave could coincide with flu season.

Of course, time will tell but I'm optimistic about what I'm seeing in my town and around me.

Yeah, thankfully I live in an area which hasn't been that badly hit at all, and has generally had very sensible policies coming from local government and healthcare providers. As you say, what I see locally is good, but much of the country and the world is not in such a good situation.

[Naida_BR]

I think, that yes. FED just printed money and everyone gets happy, except people whose money are getting less and less valuable. That's why people should spend their money on something which is not having so big inflation or just buy some things.

Printing money however is a fake way to show that an economy is recovering.
In long term this is going to put the US economy in bigger economic crisis due to the rise of inflation.

[chip1994]

It was obvious that in the long run we would have seen the US economy recover, but honestly I wasn’t expecting US economy to recover so fast, or is this just another false positive for us?. I’m referring to the article posted by CNBC where they have shown stats which proves that the US economy has started recovering despite many states yet being in lockdown. What are your thoughts on this, will the US economy recover faster than what we had anticipated?.

Source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/here-are-five-charts-illustrating-the-us-economic-recovery-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html

If we look at the indexes of the top stocks, we will be able to confirm that the US economy is recovering but the reality is not like that. The US government provided people with subsidies but most people used the money to buy stocks. That's why US stocks are growing but their real economy is still in ruins. in the future we will see the consequences of covid 19 left and will witness a strong dump once again. This year of 2020 is still a bad year for the United States and I see no opportunity for growth.

[Lucius]

The governments and people of Europe are dealing with this virus incredibly more effectively than we are in the US. As you say, some countries which have eased lockdown restrictions too early have seen a surge of cases and had to reimpose lockdown. However, large areas of the US seem to have given up on lockdowns altogether. I also haven't seen any reports coming out of Europe comparable to the ones from around the US of thousands of people refusing to wear masks or refusing to comply with basic infection orevention measures.

If we only look at the statistics then to someone who observes it from a distance it may seem so. But even within the EU itself, things looked pretty chaotic at first, because each country had some ideas of its own and it took a month to agree on some things. The situation is now getting worse in some countries that have had 0 new cases in 2-3 weeks and now have 50-100 new cases a day again. This is the price that must be paid if the borders are opened and people can move freely - only two weeks after the incubation period is over, we return to the old state.

But at least as far as the EU is concerned, there is currently no talk of re-locking, but moving in the direction of acting locally in places where the virus appears. What was also found was that the virus had weakened because most of the infected have very mild symptoms and few end up in the hospital at all. This is most likely due to the very high temperatures currently in the EU, which in some ways weakens the strength of the virus.

Many countries saw their peak back in March and April, and have been on a steady downward trend since then. The US also saw a peak in April, and is now speeding headfirst in to a bigger peak (see graph below - click for full size). This second peak also becomes harder to combat than the first. Not just for the obvious reasons of hospitals being more overwhelmed than before, but because of "lockdown fatigue". People who are only just being allowed to leave lockdown, to go out, to socialize, etc., will be very unwilling to re-enter lockdown, and many will refuse.

My opinion is that the virus has spread more than it should in the USA because of the protests that took place just at an inconvenient time. So many people in everyday interaction is nothing but a time bomb that unfortunately exploded, the results are more than visible. In Europe, everything went to hell when the Champions League match was played in Milan (Atalanta-Valencia, February 20) in front of 40 000 spectators, which had catastrophic consequences for Italy and Spain, but also for the whole of Europe.

I just hope that the announced vaccine will be effective (AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine to be shared across Europe, says France), and I see they mention in some other newspaper articles that the USA will receive a sufficient amount of vaccine for its needs.

[Haunebu]

In my opinion, these charts are not enough to cover the big picture which is that majority of the world will probably take a couple of years at the very least to recover from a crisis of such epic proportions.

The big point that many seem to forget is that the virus is still active currently and there is no vaccine available yet which means an economy that looks like it's recovering could go to hell just like that at any moment thanks to COVID.

[exstasie]

Many countries saw their peak back in March and April, and have been on a steady downward trend since then. The US also saw a peak in April, and is now speeding headfirst in to a bigger peak (see graph below - click for full size). This second peak also becomes harder to combat than the first. Not just for the obvious reasons of hospitals being more overwhelmed than before, but because of "lockdown fatigue". People who are only just being allowed to leave lockdown, to go out, to socialize, etc., will be very unwilling to re-enter lockdown, and many will refuse.

My opinion is that the virus has spread more than it should in the USA because of the protests that took place just at an inconvenient time. So many people in everyday interaction is nothing but a time bomb that unfortunately exploded, the results are more than visible.

There is a growing consensus the protests did not cause the recent spike in infections:

A working paper — yet to be peer reviewed — from the National Bureau of Economic Research analyzed data from protests in 315 large cities and found “no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following the protest.” The study also cited evidence that protests prompted more stay-at-home behavior by those who didn’t go to the protests.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/protests-in-seattle-and-elsewhere-dont-appear-to-be-driving-virus-surge-researchers-say/
https://time.com/5861633/protests-coronavirus/

I think it's more about the "lockdown fatigue" o_e_l_e_o mentions. Younger people are comprising a growing share of new cases, suggesting they are probably socializing more and not complying with distancing and mask standards. Plus, economic reopening and all that. I'm sure the protests played a role too though.

In any case, state governments seem pretty dead set against re-implementing full lockdowns. I do wonder what will happen if hospitals start getting overcrowded though.

[Lucius]

There is a growing consensus the protests did not cause the recent spike in infections:

Maybe it was done by the same people who probably influenced President Trump to treat the virus like the common flu - “The virus that we’re talking about having to do, a lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically that will go away in April,” source. It seems a rather strange explanation to me personally, but it is clear to me that the US administration has been doing everything from the beginning to minimize the problem, because as ugly as it sounds, the economy comes first.

If we compare the current number of deaths in the USA (130,000), it would mean that this virus is more deadly than the combined Vietnam, Korean, Iraqi and Afghanistan wars in total with just above 100 000 killed soldiers.

I do wonder what will happen if hospitals start getting overcrowded though.

Then the Italian scenario is inevitable, people who could have been saved were literally dying in the hallways and waiting rooms because there were not enough respirators to give them a chance to fight for their lives. But I hope that will not happen, because the pandemic has been going on for almost 3 months and the production of protective equipment and respirators is at the highest possible level around the world.

[o_e_l_e_o]

I do wonder what will happen if hospitals start getting overcrowded though.

Then the Italian scenario is inevitable, people who could have been saved were literally dying in the hallways and waiting rooms because there were not enough respirators to give them a chance to fight for their lives. But I hope that will not happen, because the pandemic has been going on for almost 3 months and the production of protective equipment and respirators is at the highest possible level around the world.

We are far better prepared from a healthcare perspective for a second wave, that much is true. This is for multiple reasons. First of all, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) production has ramped up massively over the last few months - everything from gowns and gloves to respiratory masks and body suits. My hospital now has a significant stockpile of these, with more readily available as required. Secondly, none of the preparatory work needs to be done again. Everything from making sure every member of staff is tested to see which size of respiratory mask fits them best, to expanding ICU in to adjacent areas and redesigning rotas to meet the increased capacity. We can "hit the ground running" with a second wave, so to speak. Thirdly, we know more about the virus. We know the course it takes and we know the complications it causes. We are starting to get good data about which drugs and medications are and are not effective.

The limiting factor from a healthcare point of view for the second wave I think will no longer be how many ventilators there are - as you say, production has ramped up massively over the last few months. The limiting factor is going to be the availability of staff with the knowledge and training to operate a ventilator. The virus causes a condition know as ARDS - acute respiratory distress syndrome. Incorrect use of a ventilator at the best of times can be life threatening, but with ARDS the lungs are so fragile that ventilatory parameters have to be very carefully controlled.

Coincide all of that with the next flu season, which already puts a huge strain on intensive care resources, and even with the increased numbers of ventilators it won't take a huge number of new cases to saturate hospital capacity like we saw in Italy. If people are being denied life saving treatments and dying in the corridors and on the floor, I can't see how new lockdown restrictions wouldn't be implemented. Whether or not people actually stick to them is another thing altogether, though.

If we do hit that scenario, the economy is going to take another beating. As we've said above, the Fed are quickly running out of options to keep the economy afloat. Print more money? Negative interest rates? Helicopter money? All we are seeing at the moment is a small rebound as lockdown restrictions are eased. We definitely can't call this economic recovery yet, and although obviously I hope that recovery is swift and the concerns about a second wave are unfounded, the worst may yet be to come.

[AniviaBtc]

The decisions made by the government is quite risky since they are the epicenter of the virus already but they don't have any other choices but to do risky decisions for the sake of their economy. Also take note that they've printed too much money already and the increase in money supply in the US has increased greatly within the past 3 months (March to May) base on this site.

As what you've said, US is considered as the epicenter of this virus right now. The US government is really having a hard time to control this virus and they are experiencing huge economic crisis. I'm really not that sure if they are recovering slowly because i don't see any improvement in their country.

China is the real origin of this virus, but the improvement in their economy is extremely fast. The way that they handle this pandemic is really effective and they still have a stable economy. US leader is focusing on blaming China than fixing and prioritizing their own economy.

Maybe, that's the reason why they are struggling so hard to recover their economy.

[BrewMaster]

The mortality curve of corona appears to be on the decline ^. Infections are rising while lethality appears to significantly decrease.

well in reality it is not. the mortality rate is also increasing as the number of new infected cases has increased to the point where it is currently at its all time high.
the reason why the reports show less death rate is because some of the Coronavirus deaths are being categorized under a different cause of death such as lung failure, heart disease and similar causes that share symptoms with COVID alongside a false negative result for the dead patients' COVID test.

[beerlover]

It does kind of resemble a false positive but also doesn't at the same time. Economical stats and everything looks like they are fine and by all accounts American economy definitely looks like suddenly recovering and doing much better. However one thing that doesn't add up is the fact that American economy in general shouldn't be going this well with record high 13% unemployment rate for example, a lot more people who do not have enough money to survive even though they have a job.

So, we have two things in our hands right now, one of them is all the charts looking like American economy is doing awesome, but all the stats about poor people looks like its getting worse, which one would you believe? I do not know which one to believe honestly because stock market is usually the biggest say in the economical markets.

[MCobian]

I do not believe that the United States economy recover faster, because the 5 charts in the CNBC article do not prove that the economy
United States is recovering very fast. These charts only show the upward movement of businesses due to lockdown being lifted. Assessing
economic recovery is not enough to rely on these charts, it must be completed with other data. But this is news positive in my opinion,
because the United States began the pace of economic recovery. I believe the United States economy will recover, but it's not will be fast
with the pandemic condition still running.

[CarnagexD]

We should not focus on the US economy only, we should think of other country if their economy is recovering.

Countries have different number of cases and probably it has also a different effect in the economy.

In Vietnam, they already recovered the last patient in their country and right now they are in a process of recovering.. They allowed the operation of small and large businesses with a new set of rules and regulations to prevent the risk of spreading the disease again. Hopefully, US should somehow recover from their economic crisis because they are a huge country that also have a huge number of Covid-19 cases.