How can I calculate if a transaction is likely to EVER complete

[bit94]

Hi,

Apologies if this has been posted, but for the transaction below, I don't care about how long it takes as long as it is not infinity.

Is the transaction here likely to EVER complete based on historical past?

Also, I guess follow-up would be, if not and I don't care about timing, what is the minimum fee I can realistically include.

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/5f735736b487b6b4122406efa7d9807b9c7195be8a5d9f14927777e6d195620c

Thanks!

[ranochigo]

0.

As long as the transaction is valid, it will be confirmed at some point in the future. The main concern is that if another transaction emerges which spends the same inputs which would invalidate this transaction.

1 sat per byte is not uncommon and it should take maximum a week or two to be confirmed. Be rest assured that it will definitely be confirmed.

[jackg]

Edit: as ranochingo says - if you can wait for it to confirm then DO!

I don't know how you'd calculate it as there's an added entropy given its about 8% of a block in size (at 88000 bytes).
As I see it, you've 3 options:
1. If you're not in a rush leave it as it is for 14 days and it'll probably confirm at some point if there's enough space in blocks.
2. If you're not in a rush with all of it but are with some, package them as a separate transaction...
3. Use fewer inputs per transaction, if you get all down to about 10kb they might fit better (8 transactions instead then).

I'd recommend 2-3 sats per byte for a transaction this size to confirm within a day (around triple your current fee will make it more competitive for miners but this is just an estimate).

[Bitcoin_Arena]

1 sat/byte just like what you used in your transaction. It could easily get confirmed usually on weekends especially Sundays. Based on the current state of the mempool this could even get confirmed in the next few hours if 2 - 3 blocks are mined in a quick succession.

I had a transaction of 1 sat/byte get confirmed yesterday when the mempool had some how cleared up.

[bit94]

Thanks for the responses.

I will just wait a couple weeks; or split up the transactions as jackg suggested.

This account received hundreds of small spam transactions in 2015 from some unknown user, but its worth about $50 now; so was trying to consolidate without paying more than its value in fees.

I wish some of my other accounts would just receive random bitcoin too!   

Thanks again!

[nc50lc]

I will just wait a couple weeks; or split up the transactions as jackg suggested.

It's now confirmed after 6hours.
Looks like your "very long wait" is finally over  

BTW, it doesn't matter if there are too many inputs, you don't need to split it, the prioritization always will be based from the fee rate.

[jackg]

I was going off the blocks I used to see that used to be ~0.95 mb in size, if a pool found a small transaction with a low fee they're more likely to confirm it faster... Its good to see this was a time where congestion managed to fall enough to confirm an almost 8% of block size pretty quickly...

But yes even at 1 sats per byte multiple transactions do add to size so I'd only do it with an amount you urgently need as stated (at a slightly higher fee).