How long will it take banks to phase out physical cash completely?

[cheezcarls]

There is an article where it says that Bitcoin would replace within the decade here:

https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-might-replace-cash-10-years-2018-5

It was published last 2018, so we have 8 years to go before it could finally happen. However, in my own opinion, within a decade might be absurd and not realistic.

Due to COVID-19 crisis, there is a possibility that banks would phase out paper bills and physical coins due to the fact that it can spread the virus for sending and receiving payments.

Digital payments are a good to go, but not all of us can afford to have a mobile phone and internet connection (especially slum areas). For me, it would really take decades for it to finally happen (maybe I would be dead by that time).  

[exstasie]

Of course it'll take decades.

Yep, likely over the course of multiple generations. There is (and will remain) lots of pushback against going fully cashless, especially in more liberal leaning countries, since it harms vulnerable populations like the elderly, disabled, refugees, etc.

It's completely country dependent. Some like Sweden are nearly there already. Others like Japan are nowhere near it.

It'll be quite a while in the US. 70% of Americans still use cash on a weekly basis, and what's more is that Americans have less trust in institutions than places like Sweden.

Even in Sweden, I think we're finding that getting to 80% or 85% cashless usage happened fast but that adoption is now tapering off. And like I said there is growing concern for vulnerable communities:

While the majority of Swedes are happy to trash the cash, Mr Arvidsson said there had been a growing backlash to the move among hard-hit communities — particularly the elderly and disabled, who have struggled with the transition to a predominantly digital model.

He said there was even evidence some people were having to forego buying things because they couldn't access cash.

Such was the problem, the Swedish government was forced to step in and pass a new regulation that came into effect on January 1 and required banks to provide a minimal level of cash services.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-09/australia-can-learn-from-swedens-move-to-a-cashless-society/12282764

[abeecrypto]

True,  the pandemic situation seem to , in a way,  hasten things up about completely digitalising finance. But,  it's still going to take some time though. it will surely take dcades for complete elimination of cash. If not century.  There are still lots of countries that will need a lot of time to adapt. And I am not fully convinced that physical cash will be completely eliminated. I don't think that will happen.

[gentlemand]

Even in Sweden, I think we're finding that getting to 80% or 85% cashless usage happened fast but that adoption is now tapering off. And like I said there is growing concern for vulnerable communities:

It's good that it's giving them pause for thought. If they realised it wasn't all sweetness and light after it had been fully exterminated it's not the type of thing people can gather the will to reinstate.

I suspect the rabid economists who want it will be brought to heel by those looking out for real people.

[chip1994]

Now the real question is, how long will it take banks to start the transition from physical to digital cash (CBDC)? Do you think that physical cash will still be used right after governments adopt CBDCs in their entirety? Or will it take decades before every single person in the world stops transacting with physical cash, paving the way for a full-fledged cashless society? Your input will be greatly appreciated.

Yes, I think it will take decades for people to change their habits. You know, many countries in the world now have to fight for power and land, so it is difficult for them to be eligible to learn and develop technology in their country. Besides, there are still many poor countries, which are still unable to use crypto to pay for some services. To change the habit as well as create conditions for knowledge and circumstances to use crypto, it takes many years.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

From my point of view, it will be impossible for real money to be phase-out entirely because even virtual payment is the new trend, and a lot of people used this when they buy their groceries. There are still a lot of people who can't become cashless due to their financial status that they do not afford the technology or devices they need to use when making a virtual payment, that is why real money would still exist in the long term.

[Negotiation]

When it comes to cash flow it usually depends on the bank No one can say exactly how long it will take but banks are given more priority for transactions. In many parts of the world, technology has not been touched so they know nothing about how to keep virtual currency and how to use it That's why not every single person in the world stops transacting with physical cash using banks through CBDC.

[DooMAD]

I'm thinking at least another 30-40 years in most places.  Humans are slow to accept change.  And if there isn't a an alternative that I approve of, I'll be personally dragging it out as long as I possibly can.  Essentially, I'll be using physical cash until a time comes where I can spend Bitcoin in all the same places I currently use national currencies.

[Assface16678]

Before we are using the physical money for making transaction without using any banks and by the time goes by this kind of norms are still actually active and most of the people are using the physical money as the real mode of payment because this is the normal and also the reason why we have the physical money because this is in the law all of the countries must release must be one legal physical money first so they have a good contribution into the world trades of the physical money.

Due to pandemic outbreak some of the people today don't want to use the physical money because they don't want to have this pandemic virus, we all know that the money is one of the dirtiest things we have it came from the hands of different people and consistent with the full of dirt and still we need to clean this or avoid using the physical money for a mean time so this is a good time for the online payment.

Does the bank will replace the money or the physical money,? No, they not because this is part of the law, and having a cashless transaction is temporary for now but still physical money is still allowed.

[mersal]

It will take atleast a decade to get converted to fiat payment to complete digital tokens of their central banks because they need to change the whole banking system and every merchants payment processors and also it need huge capital as well so I don't think any government will move to CBDC now, they will just encourage people to use digital payment everywhere, in next few months this covid will lose its hype even if there is no vaccine found.

[South Park]

As we enter the digital realm due to the effects of COVID-19, the process of central banks phasing out physical cash from existence might take place soon. Before the outbreak, we've been accustomed in using credit/debit cards and contactless payments greatly eliminating the need for physical cash. Now that we're in a "COVID Era", things have accelerated quite a bit. Banks and governments are in talks of adopting CBDCs which could completely eliminate the need to pay for things with physical cash.

Now the real question is, how long will it take banks to start the transition from physical to digital cash (CBDC)? Do you think that physical cash will still be used right after governments adopt CBDCs in their entirety? Or will it take decades before every single person in the world stops transacting with physical cash, paving the way for a full-fledged cashless society? Your input will be greatly appreciated.

I think we have reached the limit of how much they can erode the use of physical cash, in order to completely eliminate its need they will need to raise the living standards of billions around the world and they are not willing to do that, so while banks and governments are eager they simply do not have the means to do this, however there are many measures they can adopt to limit how you can use your cash, in my country it is already forbidden to buy something that is above a limit imposed by the government with cash, which means they can monitor all the important transactions made in the country as all of them have to be made through the banking sector.

[Ozero]

The transition to cashless payments has already begun. I think it will not take much time. We are gradually accustomed to make payments by cashless payments, because it is convenient. It seems to me that in two years, cash can disappear completely. It is much harder for the government to control their movement. After the crisis, the economy should be updated and this brings changes in the use of cach.

Once you state this, then, apparently, you live in a city where everything is crammed with equipment and you don’t need to use cash. However, not everyone lives in such comfortable conditions. In us, probably, about forty percent of the world's population will not be able to refuse cash, even if they wanted to. Many do not have the ability and desire to use special devices for cashless payments. If non-cash money is removed by a willful decision, then people will again switch to barter transactions. The economy will fall from this. No need to completely give up cash. This needs to be done gradually and definitely for more than one decade, and maybe more than one century. This will depend on the level of implementation of technological progress.

[thesmallgod]

First the government will need to sensitise everyone about adopting the policy especially in countries in Africa with low literacy level. Some are still living in stone age where money are still being kept in the house. This is part of the obstacle to the adoption. In my country despite the fact the government has been talking about cashless policy, a lot of people still hold cash and prefer to pay with it over debit cards

[audaciousbeing]

As we enter the digital realm due to the effects of COVID-19, the process of central banks phasing out physical cash from existence might take place soon. Before the outbreak, we've been accustomed in using credit/debit cards and contactless payments greatly eliminating the need for physical cash. Now that we're in a "COVID Era", things have accelerated quite a bit. Banks and governments are in talks of adopting CBDCs which could completely eliminate the need to pay for things with physical cash.

Now the real question is, how long will it take banks to start the transition from physical to digital cash (CBDC)? Do you think that physical cash will still be used right after governments adopt CBDCs in their entirety? Or will it take decades before every single person in the world stops transacting with physical cash, paving the way for a full-fledged cashless society? Your input will be greatly appreciated.

Phasing out cash has been a project that has been ongoing for more than a decade and with COVID19 happening, it code give it another boost just like you have mentioned. However I don't see the complete eradication of cash not now and not later in the future the worst that would happen is reducing it to the barest minimum which will happen really soon. For some countries they will get there faster while others might not get there in this century.

Cash management and handling has been a major drive especially in the retail sector of the economy and the phasing out of such would really impact that sector for most economies and that is not what is needed another to fully kickstart the economy post COVID.

[verita1]

I think that not all countries will be able to adapt their economies to the CBDC. There are countries that have not achieved technological development like others. For example, in my country, Venezuela, internet service is deficient due to lack of maintenance of the telephone companies and the government itself  because they do not have capital for investment, only to maintain themselves up to what is sustainable.
Not all the population can buy a smartphone. The impediment would be that not all countries are technologically developed. The most vulnerable people would be the most affected, it could work for smart cities.
Cash I don't think it will cease to exist.

[Kakmakr]

I doubt if it ever would happen globally... remember a large amount of people are illiterate. "While only 12% of the people in the world could read and write in 1820, today the share has reversed: only 14% of the world population, in 2016, remained illiterate. Over the last 65 years the global literacy rate increased by 4% every 5 years – from 42% in 1960 to 86% in 2015." - Source : https://ourworldindata.org/literacy

Add to that the percentage of old people who are not technological inclined, then you have a significant amount of people who would not be able to operate digital cash.

There will also always be 3rd world countries in rural areas without electricity and infrastructure that would not be able to use digital payment methods.

[DabsPoorVersion]

It will take so many years or a decade before it happens.

There are so many places around the globe that is not migrated to physical cash, reaching them with physical cash takes a lot of time, what more if the banks will advance to phasing out the physical cash. This will take more time or maybe if it will happen, it won't be completely phase out, since we all know that not every countries can easily adapt.

[Shasha80]

The transition from physical cash to Digital Cash (CBDC) cannot be instant as easy as turning your hand. It took several decades
for people accustomed to using Digital Cash fully, then after that physical money can be erased little by little. If forced to stop the
transaction with physical cash as soon as possible chaos can occur in the society. Because it still takes a lot of education to the society
to get used to it using Digital Cash, especially for people who are old, need a longer process to get accustomed to using Digital Cash.

[hunter7519]

Ultimately, cash may in fact disappear. But it’s mostly a question of where and when. While it may disappear in some countries, it might remain in others. And if it ultimately happens in 50 or 100 or more years, it won’t matter much to anyone who’s alive today.

[adamistraybar]

100 more years or never many many reasons people use physical cash

anon
easy of use
control
poor people no bank
and many more