Are we headed for 250k btc in 12-18 months?

[dmhco]

One thing that isn’t often considered with respect to cryptocurrency prices is how firm they are the more centralized the mining. This is a controversial point in Blockchain circles, since the whole point of the innovation of digital currency is that it’s decentralized – which means, no one person or authority has control over it. The reality is however that very often, assets that perform the best have a few vested individuals acting as silent “heavy holders” keeping supply off the market.

Bitcoin is no different. Halvening events such as the one this May, where Bitcoin’s Blockchain began rewarding miners with 6.25 coins per block vs. 12.5 coins over the previous four years are commonly assumed to cerate more demand for the coin as the amount of it being supplied is diminished. However, is this the real reason that Bitcoin’s prices leaps after a halevening event?

It’s possible to see the scenario a different way. When you look at the impact of halvening on Bitcoin’s price the first and second time around, you notice two completely different reactions. After the first halvening, almost as soon as the block reward goes down (and even beforehand too) the price of Bitcoin leaps. It is surely impossible for a lower block reward to impact a digital currency price so instantly, so the natural assumption here is that the effect was more psychological than specifically microeconomic. The price stability that has ensued over the third Bitcoin halvening event in the past couple of months is however notable, since it mirrors what Bitcoin’s price did following the previous halvening of the Blockchain’s block reward.

Thus, the question becomes: what has changed between the first halvening event, in 2012, and the second one in 2016 and this year’s? The answer is – miners. Bitcoin was initially mined via CPU and GPU – in essence, ordinary computing power. Then, in 2015, Micree Zhan, an engineer for Wu Jihan, who was one of Roger Ver’s buddies at that time, developed the Antminer for start-up Bitmain. Within about 6 months, five generations of miner upgrades were made until finally, Zhan Ketuan, another engineer, developed the Antminer S5, which could mine over 1 TH/s.

Fast-forward to the Bitcoin halvening event in 2016, and most miners were by then capable at the upper ranges of achieving 13-15 TH/s. That power level actually stuck for the next two years without getting much of an upgrade, too: by 2017, despite consuming 30.14TWh worldwide – which is more than the entire power consumption of 19 European countries combined - Bitcoin miners were still using the Antminer S9 for the most part, which is 14 TH/s. One way to see this is that Bitcoin, quite simply, was becoming extremely centralized during the first half of its second halvening innings. According to Bitmain’s listing prospectus, the company increased revenue from $140 million in 2015 to around $2.5 billion by 2017. Meanwhile, total customers increased by 40,000 in number in the same period, to 46,000 customers. In other words, while sales of mining hardware jumped about 16 times in dollar terms, the total number of new buyers only rose about 6 times. This was during a period in which mining power increases were fairly unremarkable. The implication is that with the stabilization in mining power increases, about a third of the existing customer base simply kept buying up more mining hardware. This is the equivalent effect to that of what we might call here the recentralization effect.

During the 12 months following the second Bitcoin halvening event, Bitcoin’s price rose about 600%, to $2400. If we scale out that effect just another 6 months, the effect was a 30-fold increase in the price, once it piqued at $20,000 / BTC. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s price stabilized at around $10,000 per Bitcoin after it came down from this high during the 2018-2019 period. This commensurate reduction meant that Bitcoin’s price from the point of the second halevening ultimately rose about the same number of times as the increase in Bitmain’s sales during the same period. The implication is that this exponentially widening core of repeat customers were storing the Bitcoin away while increasing hashpower via spending whatever minimal amounts on more mining gear.

Fast-forward to the present, and we have the ultra-efficient Antminer S19Pro ready for market in August this year, just 3 months following the third halvening event. This machine mines at 110 TH/s. Notice that in the past halvening period overall, mining power has risen by around 10 times, but only after the Bitcoin high was reached did any of that acceleration in mining power per hardware unit take shape. In other words, during the period when the Bitcoin price collapsed in 2018, was when the mining equipment makers got their most productive in terms of power per unit.

Once again, the power per hardware unit available seems to have stabilized, and the Antminer S19Pro is simply more cost-efficient than current iterations of the Series 19 model. When this happens, miners tend to spend their increased cost efficiency on loading up on more Bitcoin miners, centralizing the Blockchain further yet again. This effect, remember, is precisely what seems to cause the massive price surges, at first fairly gradual, then more steeply, and ultimately, to a point where it is blown out of all sanity. If that is the case, as it seems to be here, we are somewhere at the end of 2015 up to about mid-2016 right now, which is about 18 months away from where the next recentralized mining sellers will unload their Bitcoin potentially around $250,000 or more.  

[Darker45]

Credits to traders and crypto analysts who are tirelessly or even religiously looking for or probably guessing what's going to happen next in the Bitcoin market.

With all due respect, however, I would say we are not headed to $250k in the next 12-18 months, not even in the next 5 years.

At the end of the day, your guess is as good as mine. Didn't click on the link, by the way.

[Yogee]

Let's see.......

[dmhco]

Credits to traders and crypto analysts who are tirelessly or even religiously looking for or probably guessing what's going to happen next in the Bitcoin market.

With all due respect, however, I would say we are not headed to $250k in the next 12-18 months, not even in the next 5 years.

At the end of the day, your guess is as good as mine. Didn't click on the link, by the way.

in this case your wrong, he has gotren these sorts of predictions right twice before:

-The author in May 2015 predicting 2600 usd btc in 3.5 ywars and a 10k 25 year avg: https://youtu.be/tBeVd-kaGB4

-The author in June 2017 predicting 20k btc within 12-18 months: https://www.coinspeaker.com/value-virtual-asset-bitcoin-will-30000-2020/ esp. "What this may indicate is that $20,000 or so of the gains are likely to appear within the next 18-24 months"

No one was making such calls then

[mk4]

This is a perfect example of "Correlation does not imply causation" in my opinion. Correlating Bitcoin's centralization/decentralization with the price is just "ehhh" in my opinion(unless I misunderstood your article). I don't even think that more than 95% of bitcoin buyers even check Bitcoin's hashrate distribution in the first place.

[dmhco]

This is a perfect example of "Correlation does not imply causation" in my opinion. Correlating Bitcoin's centralization/decentralization with the price is just "ehhh" in my opinion(unless I misunderstood your article). I don't even think that more than 95% of bitcoin buyers even check Bitcoin's hashrate distribution in the first place.

... Exactly... They don't check it and they miss the shifts in the market reality... He says exactly this.

[kotajikikox]

Let's see.......

Still Loading?please share the result as many are waiting for your Mirror Balls answer towards this 


Well to OP thanks for the share and of course your site,i don't want to be hypocrite but i also wanted this price to come,But of course i don't wanna put my 100% because for now my view is "Come What May".

[DoubleEdgeEX]

It´s just as legit as question "BTC mooning to 1M USD in the next weeks?" like some clickbait folks do on youtube. Those kind of commetns are the reason why plenty of big playing investors don´t take crypto markets serious, there are simply to many unknowledgable people involve who just clairvoyant their way through the markets. I also think that those comments are dangerous for newbies, since it implies they cold get rid of their money issues, debt or whatever just by buying BTC, eventually going all in and can´t afford to lose, which in return just increases fear, anxiety and despair.

[maydna]

Still Loading?please share the result as many are waiting for your Mirror Balls answer towards this 

Until the next year, that mirror balls will not show anything

$250k will be too high for bitcoin to reach, but less than $100k will be reasonable, and I think that bitcoin can achieve that this year or next year. But we still not sure how much bitcoin price will increase, and we can hope that the price can increase so high. If the price really increases to $250k in the 12-18 months later, then we will see another bitcoin millionaires because if they have a small amount of bitcoin, that will be big money for them.

[dmhco]

I own more antminers than I am proud to admit - so let’s just say I have numerous antminer s9 14TH/s all with the authentic bitmain power supply. Plenty new and plenty used.

Can anyone help deduce how much I can currently sell them for and where would be best to list them. Mainly looking to sell the brand new ones.

Thanks for your time!

msg me

[NeuroticFish]

Until the next year, that mirror balls will not show anything

Ohhh... And I thought they are broken. Thanks for the heads up.


Now really... come on people, still trying to "read" the future? It's simply wasted time.
Bitcoin should in theory (!) rise. A lot. But when, and how big the growth will be, especially until a certain date.. nobody can say. Actually nobody can say if that rise will even happen in reality. That's the future about, you know?

So just stick to TA if you are trader and you may figure out what could happen in the next minutes of maybe hours, and if you are holder.. just hold and hope.
Bitcoin price may (or may not) bring nice surprises... eventually.

[bittraffic]

Well whichever the price could be as long as their prediction is more than the current price is good. I wouldn't really be contradicting anything after all we all wanna see it goes up.  Unless you can play the futures trading by the leverage which you can earn even if the price dips every time that it will drop to $3k, it will still be fine. For holders, they wouldn't be happy if the price prediction is $3k in the next few years.

[jossiel]

That's a high speculation within the given period of time. But others haven't read the article regardless of the content, I think it's a good read although I'm not giving myself too much expectation for those months too come.

He explained on the article why he think it will happen.

[dmhco]

That's a high speculation within the given period of time. But others haven't read the article regardless of the content, I think it's a good read although I'm not giving myself too much expectation for those months too come.

He explained on the article why he think it will happen.

ok thanks, reprinted.

[uneng]

In other words, while sales of mining hardware jumped about 16 times in dollar terms, the total number of new buyers only rose about 6 times.

For me it seems very worrying... If few people are controlling the biggest part of the mining operation and proportion between buyers numbers and sales values increasement is too unequal, it means bitcoin is closer to centralization and that adoption isn't increasing smoothly as it should.
There are chances the powerful miners will drop their coins on the market to make profit from their mining investment (supply), but will there be enough people to buy these coins (demand) to keep btc price going up? Will there be enough adoption? In my opinion if bitcoin looks like a *niche coin* we are in trouble.

[Yogee]

Still Loading?please share the result as many are waiting for your Mirror Balls answer towards this  

Until the next year, that mirror balls will not show anything
...

It took a while but the crystal ball gave the answer.
The price of bitcoin will reach 250K in 12-18 months IF bitcoin is already at 200K and not 9K

That's a high speculation within the given period of time. But others haven't read the article regardless of the content, I think it's a good read although I'm not giving myself too much expectation for those months too come.

He explained on the article why he think it will happen.

I admit I didn't bother to open the link when I posted the crystal ball. Whatever explanation that writer gives, it's simply not achievable in 12-18 months. If the time frame is 12-18 years, that is more believable.


This reminded me of a guy who said he'll eat his dick if bitcoin doesn't reach $1 million. He even boasted the formula he used for his prediction. He later withdrew his promise and said it was only meant to attract attention  

[jossiel]

That's a high speculation within the given period of time. But others haven't read the article regardless of the content, I think it's a good read although I'm not giving myself too much expectation for those months too come.

He explained on the article why he think it will happen.

I admit I didn't bother to open the link when I posted the crystal ball. Whatever explanation that writer gives, it's simply not achievable in 12-18 months. If the time frame is 12-18 years, that is more believable.


This reminded me of a guy who said he'll eat his dick if bitcoin doesn't reach $1 million. He even boasted the formula he used for his prediction. He later withdrew his promise and said it was only meant to attract attention  

There is no need to click the link, he has posted the entire article on his original post.

We both agree for the given time, unreal in simple terms. But as always, most of our bitcoin journey has been up and down and to realize and analyze the price, we're not the same anymore when before when we hear some known personality says that the price will go to the ceiling, we believe. Today, not anymore.

[maydna]

Until the next year, that mirror balls will not show anything

Ohhh... And I thought they are broken. Thanks for the heads up.


Now really... come on people, still trying to "read" the future? It's simply wasted time.
Bitcoin should in theory (!) rise. A lot. But when, and how big the growth will be, especially until a certain date.. nobody can say. Actually nobody can say if that rise will even happen in reality. That's the future about, you know?

So just stick to TA if you are trader and you may figure out what could happen in the next minutes of maybe hours, and if you are holder.. just hold and hope.
Bitcoin price may (or may not) bring nice surprises... eventually.

If you kick that mirror balls, that will break hahaha.

If people believe in bitcoin, they don't have to ask when bitcoin will be $250k or another high price, but they only need to hold their bitcoin. If they can see bitcoin increasing so high, they can sell it right away or still keep it until the next high price is reached. That will depend on how high bitcoin price that we want to sell.

Having bitcoin in your wallet makes you need to have patience because we can't know when the price will be high or low. So you always need to be ready for anything that might happen to bitcoin.

Until the next year, that mirror balls will not show anything
...

It took a while but the crystal ball gave the answer.
The price of bitcoin will reach 250K in 12-18 months IF bitcoin is already at 200K and not 9K

I can wait for that time because I believe in bitcoin. I don't want just to hold my bitcoin, but I will use my bitcoin to trade so I can have more bitcoin as the profit. I don't want to pretend that I will make a lot of money without waiting because I need to try hard to trade, no matter if the price is still too volatile. I can take the risk that bitcoin price always changes, but from that change, I can use it to buy low and sell high, and I will try to make a profit.

[exstasie]

It´s just as legit as question "BTC mooning to 1M USD in the next weeks?" like some clickbait folks do on youtube.

Not exactly. 12-18 months is plenty of time for a rally like 2016-2017 to develop. $250K is completely within the realm of normal when it comes to BTC bubbles too. I think aiming for $300-$400K would be reasonable too based on extrapolations of past moves.

This (speculative) triangle idea is still valid:

That's one route to 6-figure valuations by late 2021 or early 2022. Bitcoin loves to make powerful Wave 5 blow off tops!

[Slow death]

I read everything that was written, but I didn't get to click on the link and I confess that there are some very interesting things that I didn't know and I was able to learn from this text, but talking about price... I am of the opinion that it will be impossible for the price to exceed  $100.000 even if 4 years pass and I don't believe that in 2 years the price will exceed  $40.000

What happened in 2017 was a rare phenomenon that many scammers managed to destroy and made people look at cryptocurrencies more cautiously