Would you buy/use Bitcoin if you knew its price would not reach a new ATH?

[d5000]

I think you can join the number 1 and 2 into 1 part which will be like this "Yes, as long as it helps me to earn money and using it for payments and savings" because I think when we earn money from bitcoin, at least we use bitcoin for payment because we buy and sell bitcoin in any price.

Formulation is still not ideal, but the idea is the following:

Vote for 1) if you only would use Bitcoin if you earn money with it (where Bitcoin is important for the source of income, e.g. Bitcoin-related services, signature/bounty campaigns related to Bitcoin). The exact way you use it is not important, it's the reason you use it.

Vote for 2) if you also would use Bitcoin if you didn't earn money with it. For example, because you replace your bank or savings account with a Bitcoin wallet, or because you use it for remittances.

So in the case you mention, option 1 would be the correct one.

I'll clarify that in the OP.

Yeah, it can't be a perfect poll in this sense, but then you could have different polls for a different target audience.

This would be ideal, but it is difficult if you aren't using an online panel or other complex poll mechanism, because otherwise you don't know if those answering really belong to your audience. The goal of the two different "Yes" answers is just to approximate to that ideal a bit ("signature campaigners" would select mostly option 1, "bitcoin users" option 2) without making the poll too complex.

And if you're really going for usage, then I think leaving out traders is fine (and most merchants settle in fiat anyway and don't see a single satoshi or have a wallet so they don't care) because traders don't need an ATH.[...]
In fact, if you're wondering who cares about an ATH, it really is speculative holders only you're looking at. Then there's no point in asking if they'll use it, right?

While you could argue indeed that traders using fiat settlement and never making any transactions on the network are not really "using" Bitcoin, the existence of Bitcoin is relevant for them.

For example, I want to differentiate between the following two cases:

1) a trader who tries to "ride" bull markets (and perhaps bear markets as well). He would only trade Bitcoin if it's an asset with a certain probability to see a new rally. He thinks that only if people are thinking about "the moon", dreaming of getting rich and an ATH was possible, price moves would be high enough to make good profits. This type of trader would select "No".

2) a trader who only trades small price swings, i.e. a daytrader, and he would only continue to trade Bitcoin if these price swings were high enough to make profit. This kind of trader would select "Yes, only if it helps me to earn money".

The difference is that for trader 1 the fact of a new ATH is important, and thus he would leave the BTC market if the price stabilizes. While type 2 would stay if he can still make money.

Both are only "traders", and are not really using Bitcoin, but their existence is important because both contribute to volume and liquidity. If type 1 traders and other people answering "No" are a big majority, then Bitcoin's volume, liquidity, and also the price are probably in danger if for a long time it fails to achieve a new ATH. "Convinced Bitcoin users" (unconditional "Yes" answers) would stay, so it's important to know the size of this audience. Type 2 traders, signature campaign participants and other "Bitcoin earners" are something in-between: they would probably stay longer than those that only use it if an ATH is possible, but if the ATH-dependant group is too large, they would also leave.

We could have the following scenarios if Bitcoin fails to reach an ATH in a long timeframe:

1) Most users depend on an ATH -> Price eventually crashes dramatically.
2) Many users depend on an ATH, but group 2 ("Bitcoin earners") and 3 are also big -> Price could see a bear market, but would eventually stabilize again.
3) Only few users depend on an ATH -> Price could continue to stay stable.

This is basically the idea behind the poll, to know the probabilities of these scenarios. I know a forum poll is very limited, but if participation is high enough then maybe we can draw some conclusions from it.

(Hope this was understandable )

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[shoreno]

yes because im one of those who work online for btc  but this does not mean i dont care on the price anymore  . i do love to see btc grow more and reach its ath or new ath too   . this is only a what if and theres no assurance that it will happen so people wont be scared to invest and hope for the greater good  . if we look at other coins that are stable or are obviously dont grew anymore , there are still people who uses them  . how much more btc when btc is more   better than them  .

[buwaytress]

We could have the following scenarios if Bitcoin fails to reach an ATH in a long timeframe:

1) Most users depend on an ATH -> Price eventually crashes dramatically.
2) Many users depend on an ATH, but group 2 ("Bitcoin earners") and 3 are also big -> Price could see a bear market, but would eventually stabilize again.
3) Only few users depend on an ATH -> Price could continue to stay stable.

This is basically the idea behind the poll, to know the probabilities of these scenarios. I know a forum poll is very limited, but if participation is high enough then maybe we can draw some conclusions from it.

(Hope this was understandable )

Yeah, it was all understandable, thank you for taking the time to explain. I think if you put it like this, then I understand the point of the poll. I just still think that the way it's framed leads people to vote with their instinct, not necessarily with their action but then again, all polls are about opinion and not action (as election polls show!).

I think Bitcoin's price history (spending maybe 15% of the time close to ATH and the rest of the time far below it) unfortunately proves that group 1 is true, that most users depend on an ATH. Fact is, more people are speculators than users (though I agree all rely on the network so game theory keeps people using it when they don't need it).

[traderethereum]

I think you can join the number 1 and 2 into 1 part which will be like this "Yes, as long as it helps me to earn money and using it for payments and savings" because I think when we earn money from bitcoin, at least we use bitcoin for payment because we buy and sell bitcoin in any price.

Formulation is still not ideal, but the idea is the following:

Vote for 1) if you only would use Bitcoin if you earn money with it (where Bitcoin is important for the source of income, e.g. Bitcoin-related services, signature/bounty campaigns related to Bitcoin). The exact way you use it is not important, it's the reason you use it.

Vote for 2) if you also would use Bitcoin if you didn't earn money with it. For example, because you replace your bank or savings account with a Bitcoin wallet, or because you use it for remittances.

So in the case you mention, option 1 would be the correct one.

I'll clarify that in the OP.

I get your point. But so far, as a bitcoin user, I use bitcoin as a source of income.
I think trading can be the way to have bitcoin and make it a source income.
And after we have bitcoin, we convert it into fiat money and leave some part in bitcoin form, and we use some part of that money to fills our daily needs and the other part for savings.
If people replace their bank or savings account with a bitcoin wallet, that will depend on where he lives because if he lives in a country that allows bitcoin, he will not have a problem.
But if he lives in a country that doesn't allow bitcoin, he still needs his banks to save the money.
Besides that, most people still use fiat money to send to other people, even if they are in the bitcoin world.

So I think people have to make a wrong choice by vote number two

[Silber]

Julian Hosp mention this thought in one of his last Videos, and that make me think about it.

If I there will be no new ATH, I would not use Bitcoin as a speculation object anymore. Because the downside Risk in Bitcoin (and alt coins) is very high, so I want an huge upside potential. I probably would go in to Gold & Silver instead of Bitcoin, because there is a lower downside Risk and a bigger upside potential.

[YOSHIE]

If you look at the current situation, many people do not think Bitcoin will head for a new ATH, after halving happened yesterday.

But, of course, who bought a lot, the reason: simple.
Bitcoin for today is pretty good for trading/investing in the short term, a matter of hours or days.
As an example:
Today Bitcoin is in the position of $ 9000, of course this is a good step to buy, when the price reaches $ 9500, of course it can be sold, on and on it will happen all this time like that.
So, even though the price of Bitcoin today hasn't crept further ATH, I'm sure there are still a lot of investing and doing short-term trading.

I myself do the same thing.

[Sebas.tian]

Thanks for the question: as I have read many replies, they would they still use bitcoin because of the potentials in this digital coin. Personally, I would use this Bitcoin even though the world is crumbling and the Fiat's are rising. Bitcoin wasn't meant for the purpose of earning huge amount of money like many thought, but give freedom to us which is more important than watching out for another all time high. My earnings in bitcoin isn't my aims while am here but it nature of decentralization.

[pilosopotasyo]

The biggest question is how did you know that there is no another all time high this is 2020 when market is very volatile and it's hard to predict what's going to happen next, but if there is no all time high I don't have no reason not to buy when it can be used to buy stuffs and still make money from short trading, there are still people making money in trading Bitcoin even if the price is dropping.

[exstasie]

Julian Hosp mention this thought in one of his last Videos, and that make me think about it.

If I there will be no new ATH, I would not use Bitcoin as a speculation object anymore. Because the downside Risk in Bitcoin (and alt coins) is very high, so I want an huge upside potential.

This exhibits the futile nature of the question. In a free market, there are no bounds on highs or lows. It's like asking, what if the US dollar could never drop in value, or what if gold was pegged to $1,700/oz? Answers to these questions don't yield much value since they pervert the very idea of markets. Obviously if gold (or BTC) traded at a permanently fixed price, people wouldn't use them as a speculative vehicle anymore. If BTC was guaranteed to have no upside potential, people would obviously cease long term investments, and people might just short it into the ground.

I'm not sure what that really tells us about the spectrum of BTC users though. It's just common sense. People invest based on risk vs. reward. If you take away the potential reward, they will stop investing.

[d5000]

And after we have bitcoin, we convert it into fiat money and leave some part in bitcoin form, and we use some part of that money to fills our daily needs and the other part for savings.

Yep, still that's what answer 1 is meant for. Answer 2 is for people who don't depend on Bitcoin for their income. They use Bitcoin, for example, because they think it's safer for savings than fiat, even without big price increases - e.g. people in countries like Venezuela. Or because they think it's safer than money on a bank account because the bank could go bankrupt, or fiat become worthless. Or because they're using it in a way it's more convenient than fiat, like international transfers.

The background of the poll is explained a bit in the answer to buwaytress. In short: I want to know what would happen if the price stays stable for a long time: who would leave, who could stay, and which group tends to be bigger.

@Silber: thanks for your honest answer

[traderethereum]

In short: I want to know what would happen if the price stays stable for a long time: who would leave, who could stay, and which group tends to be bigger.

If that happens, I guess we will be in a boring mode because we can not profit from bitcoin.
Probably, that can be a way for people to save their bitcoin, and they will try to search for the profit from the altcoin market.
But personally, I don't think that the price stays stable for a long time. If we look at the market situations now, we see that bitcoin price stays stable, but the price is not mean it stays at one price only, but the price still up and down.
People who have confidence and believe in bitcoin will stay and will try hard to earn more bitcoin because they believe that bitcoin price can increase so high.
But I don't know which group will be bigger because that group does not show themselves in public.

[Silber]

There is one big difference to the last halving: Now there are Futures for Bitcoin. And Futures have a stabilizing effect for the underlining commodity. So that could be a reason, why the Bitcoin volatility will shrink on the long term.

[d5000]

If that happens, I guess we will be in a boring mode because we can not profit from bitcoin.

You could, in this hypothetical situation, maybe not profit that much only from holding it. But think about what Bitcoin wants to be. If it wants to be a real currency, then it has to become stable eventually.

In "real currencies", i.e. those that become an unit of account, you only profit from hodling "something" if this hodling involves risk (this is one of the basic Capitalist principles), for example investing in stocks. To profit, instead, in a "Bitcoin world" you could invest in ICOs and hope that the projects you support are successful. But holding the currency should be, most of the time, only "hold your value" approximately.

The question is if Bitcoin can become this kind of "real currency" or not. If there are not enough user supporting it without needing an ICO, then it would crash in an insane manner when people realize that they won't become rich from hodling.

People who have confidence and believe in bitcoin will stay and will try hard to earn more bitcoin because they believe that bitcoin price can increase so high.

This user group is exactly the group which should vote for "No" in my poll. Because they think Bitcoin is a speculative vehicle, not a currency. If this group doesn't become smaller eventually, Bitcoin will finally crash hard. Instead, those that believe that Bitcoin will stay and don't depend on a price increase, are those who will always act as a support, and create the conditions for BTC becoming a "real currency".

There is one big difference to the last halving: Now there are Futures for Bitcoin. And Futures have a stabilizing effect for the underlining commodity. So that could be a reason, why the Bitcoin volatility will shrink on the long term.

Futures are one reason, for sure. But the other reason could be increased liquidity from other sources. If Bitcoin becomes massively used as a currency then this could lead into even more "boredom".

[Wexnident]

Yes, I'd still buy it. I never really saw it as an investment for some reason. Sure, at first, I bought BTC and was waiting for an ATH, but as time passed, well, my mindset changed quite a bit and started using my supply of BTC every now and then. I still hold a bit of them and buy them every now and then, but even without the chances of achieving another ATH, Bitcoin being an option to buy some stuff I want without finding out who I am seems pretty nice to me.

If that happens, I guess we will be in a boring mode because we can not profit from bitcoin.
Probably, that can be a way for people to save their bitcoin, and they will try to search for the profit from the altcoin market.
But personally, I don't think that the price stays stable for a long time. If we look at the market situations now, we see that bitcoin price stays stable, but the price is not mean it stays at one price only, but the price still up and down.
People who have confidence and believe in bitcoin will stay and will try hard to earn more bitcoin because they believe that bitcoin price can increase so high.
But I don't know which group will be bigger because that group does not show themselves in public.

This is just a sad mindset and has probably failed what Satoshi's goal really is tbh. Well, not that I can blame you, the community up to now has pretty much lead us to think of Bitcoin as an investment after all. Still, "boring" seems kind of taking it as Bitcoin now being "useless". It's not like the only characteristic of Bitcoin is being a speculative asset. You're basically blinding your eyes to a majority of what it can do due to being blinded by, yes, profit.

[Free1bitco.in]

the thing that makes people interested in bitcoin is not only the high prices, but also because of the fast volatility. people can make a lot of money in other ways than by waiting for a new ATH. however, if the price can still be higher than this, I think people will still buy and hold bitcoin according to the target they want.

[traderethereum]

If that happens, I guess we will be in a boring mode because we can not profit from bitcoin.

You could, in this hypthetical situation, maybe not profit that much only from holding it. But think about what Bitcoin wants to be. If it wants to be a real currency, then it has to become stable eventually.

In "real currencies", i.e. those that become an unit of account, you only profit from hodling "something" if this hodling involves risk (this is one of the basic Capitalist principles), for example investing in stocks. To profit, instead, in a "Bitcoin world" you could invest in ICOs and hope that the projects you support are succesful. But holding the currency should be, most of the time, only "hold your value" approximately.

The question is if Bitcoin can become this kind of "real currency" or not. If there are not enough user supporting it without needing an ICO, then it would crash in an insane manner when people realize that they won't become rich from hodling.

Holding bitcoin will not give much profit than use bitcoin to trade unless the price surge suddenly. I think it is hard for bitcoin to stable because the max supply is not already reached, and we are still seeing the next halving in the next few years.
Maybe if the halving amount is reduced to less than 1 bitcoin, the price can be stable, but I don't know.
But I agree that bitcoin needs to be stable to become a real currency.

In these situations, bitcoin already stable for a moment, and the price is not down below $9k and not up to $9,500, and the price has always changed to that price over and over.
If we are still in these situations until the end of this year or next year, we can try to search for the profit from the altcoin or ICO or IEO or whatever its name.

I am sure that bitcoin can become real currency in the future, and we still need an ICO or IEO or even existing altcoin to help us to make money or profit. We need to accept bitcoin to be stable if we want to use bitcoin as a currency. But we already have a stable coin which is not too volatile as bitcoin.

I am sorry if I am wrong at this point because I am not too understand about the economic law or something that kind.

People who have confidence and believe in bitcoin will stay and will try hard to earn more bitcoin because they believe that bitcoin price can increase so high.

This user group is exactly the group which should vote for "No" in my poll. Because they think Bitcoin is a speculative vehicle, not a currency. If this group doesn't become smaller eventually, Bitcoin will finally crash hard. Instead, those that believe that Bitcoin will stay and don't depend on a price increase, are those who will always act as a support, and create the conditions for BTC becoming a "real currency".

If so, they can leave bitcoin as it is without the want to use or buy another bitcoin because the price is down.
I think they can answer "It depends, maybe after a substantial price drop" because they can buy more bitcoin with less money when the price drops.
But we don't know what they reason to answer no, and we only guess for what they think

Yes, I'd still buy it. I never really saw it as an investment for some reason. Sure, at first, I bought BTC and was waiting for an ATH, but as time passed, well, my mindset changed quite a bit and started using my supply of BTC every now and then. I still hold a bit of them and buy them every now and then, but even without the chances of achieving another ATH, Bitcoin being an option to buy some stuff I want without finding out who I am seems pretty nice to me.

If that happens, I guess we will be in a boring mode because we can not profit from bitcoin.
Probably, that can be a way for people to save their bitcoin, and they will try to search for the profit from the altcoin market.
But personally, I don't think that the price stays stable for a long time. If we look at the market situations now, we see that bitcoin price stays stable, but the price is not mean it stays at one price only, but the price still up and down.
People who have confidence and believe in bitcoin will stay and will try hard to earn more bitcoin because they believe that bitcoin price can increase so high.
But I don't know which group will be bigger because that group does not show themselves in public.

This is just a sad mindset and has probably failed what Satoshi's goal really is tbh. Well, not that I can blame you, the community up to now has pretty much lead us to think of Bitcoin as an investment after all. Still, "boring" seems kind of taking it as Bitcoin now being "useless". It's not like the only characteristic of Bitcoin is being a speculative asset. You're basically blinding your eyes to a majority of what it can do due to being blinded by, yes, profit.

Because people now think to make a profit from bitcoin from investment and trading.
Boring here is about we are difficult to analyze, predict, or knowing when the time to trade because we are hard to see the chance to enter the market.
If we can not get the sign to enter the market, that can lead us to buy at a high price, and it will be hard to sell it back for some time.
I use bitcoin as an investment, and as a way to make money, but I accept the price fluctuate. Although I am not good at analysis, I believe that if I keep trying to analyze, I will get that time to enter the market.
Btw, we need profit, and I believe you want it too

But once again, maybe I am wrong, so I apologize.

[whyrqa]

I believe that today it is foolish to use Bitcoin as a means of payment, since the cryptocurrency has not yet reached those peaks to be appreciated. Therefore, I will never spend my bitcoins. On the other hand, bitcoin today is one of the best cryptocurrencies for long-term investments and even without 100% guarantees and a forecast for the near future, I still invested a certain amount in Bitcoin, but I did it much earlier.

[d5000]

I made a small edit to option 2, because I suspect there were still misunderstandings - I think some may have voted for it, even if they depend on Bitcoin earnings. As the general sense of the poll options has not changed, I have not reset the poll.

@traderethereum: What you write is not wrong, only that what you write is not exactly what I want to achieve with the poll. I'm not trying to know if Bitcoin's price will be stable now (In fact, I think not).

Instead my intention is to know what would happen if we see a long stable or bearish phase. "Long" in the sense of longer than any stable phase or bear market we've seen until to date - approximately longer than a year, which was the maximum length of past bear markets in 2013-15 (~14 months)  and 2017/18 (~12 months). The question is: Would people keep using and buying Bitcoin or not? Would they wait for a further crash (option 3)?

With ICOs/STOs etc. I wasn't referring to "altcoins" in general, but tokens which correspond to real-world businesses. Even if Bitcoin becomes a "real currency" and stabilizes, these tokens would continue to be volatile, just like stocks today, because businesses are successful or not, what would be reflected by the token price.

[dentolas]

Yes, as I would use it for payments and savings, especially if it keeps on growing... I think it would turn into a less speculative asset and it would assume a definitive "store of value " characteristic
If it would remain stagnant I would be less enthusiastic about it but would hold some anyway

[AjithBtc]

Yes, as I would use it for payments and savings, especially if it keeps on growing... I think it would turn into a less speculative asset and it would assume a definitive "store of value " characteristic
If it would remain stagnant I would be less enthusiastic about it but would hold some anyway

From the day of bitcoin into usage there is periodic growth with time. At some point there is unexpected price increase which boosted the expectation among the cryptocurrency users. This doesn't mean that bitcoin needs to reach ath quite often. As most people my preference of bitcoin and other cryptocurrency were a form of investment. Till date it has provided with a profit out of the growth and same continues as the demand keeps growing.