Lessons from the Past: When bitcoin's price stabilised

[Bitstar_coin]

Thomas must have been regretting all his life if he didn't buy back what he sold for $14. This stability of price happens almost very often before the jump. Somehow the investors back then are as impatient as today when it comes to waiting. Today the pattern is as obvious to happen once again and all it needs is more waiting once again. The coronavirus is making it more difficult to climb which the more waiting we do this time.

Imagine $14 back in 2011 to $20k in 2017, that was a mind blowing rise and anyone in his shoes will definitely have some regrets seeing such increase, that's the reason why patient is very necessary when it comes to investment, at that time btc was at it's early stage, lots of people who bought didn't understand it and was not sure what the future holds,
Even with this type of example,  many people are still too eager, i guess it is part of human nature.

[1715316875]

1715316875

[1715316875]

1715316875

[1715316875]

1715316875

[1715316875]

1715316875

[GDragon]

One thing I noted is that these stable phases seem to happen especially often near or slightly below half the price of the previous ATH. However, if you look at the context, that's not always a good short-term sign.

Mid-2011: ATH ~$30, (relatively short) stable phase $14. (But afterwards, a crash to $2).
Second half of 2012: long stable phase around $15. (Afterwards: buildup to bullrun up to $260)
Mid-2013: first ATH ~$260, then a relatively stable phase ~$120-130. (Afterwards, a bullrun up to $1200)
End of 2015/early 2016: last ATH was ~$1200, long stable phase at $380-450. (Afterwards, a slow buildup to the rally of 2017)
and of course April to July 2020 at $9000-10000 (ATH before: ~$19500)

There are some significant "outliers", however:

First half of 2012: long stable phase at $5-6, at approximately 1/5 of the $30 ATH. (afterwards: slow buildup)
Mid-2015: long stable phase between $230-300, at approximately 1/5 of the $1200 ATH. (afterwards: slow buildup)
Mid-to-end 2018: long stable phase on $6000 (afterwards: crash to $3000).
Beginning of 2017: stable phase at ~$1500, slightly above the previous ATH of $1200 (afterwards: mother of all bubbles)
Beginning of 2019: stable phase slightly above the low of $3000 (about 1/6 of the ATH of $19500).

We see that "around half the ATH price" is definitively a price region where stable phases occur relatively often. Three of the four previous ocurrences of this pattern led to bull runs afterwards. (This could be a psychological phenomenon: if the price afterwards goes up it will approximate the ATH, what may give more power to the rally).

Conclusion: The current stability could definitively be a bullish sign, but it's not sure.

Thanks for this, haven't really see it from the history just like this. but yup agree with the conclusion, I've also watch technical analysis and few of them believe its a bullish too, I know its 50-50 but I am planning to buy when it goes down to the 9k mark, just like what you've said, it could definitely go high, it may take weeks or months, so I'll wait.

[davis196]

Damn I wish I bought BTC back in 2011.
Was there any active crypto exchange platform back in 2011?I wasn't aware about Bitcoin back then.
Usually,when the price is stable,I expect a price dump to happen,because there's no support for a price increase and after waiting for so long,many traders get tired of waiting and start selling.
Anyway,your advise to HODL when the price is stable is something like a self fulfilling prophecy.The HODLers keep HODLing because the price is stable and the price is stable,because the HODLers keep HODLing.

[Alobo Realer]

It has proven beyond doubt investing in Bitcoin requires the maximum patient one can get, the volatility is a perfect and permanent feature. Stability in the other I must call it 'Preparation stage', it is stage that must be passed in the run, despite the volatility of Bitcoin it always has a time of stability which is sure to last couple days or weeks in a round figure count, and what ever the case it never stop moving. Only the strong minded investors who have built in patient could survive the nature of this currency

[larus]

Sooner aor later we will see breakout from 9k price. Crypto price just cant be stable all the time

[death69]

Yeah, holding is the best way to earn maximum profit from bitcoin. It is hard for bitcoin to become stabilized. And the history have shown us many opportunities have been missed and many people sold their coin with cheap price. New technologies require a huge amount of time to be used and utilized by people.

It is sad that currently I dont have much money to buy bitcoin. Im trying to work as much as I can to have some extra budget for this precious investment 

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

[]

Conclusion: The current stability could definitively be a bullish sign, but it's not sure.

So we actually have a third cycle which is when the price becomes stable. But we seldom see it, because we all know how volatile the price is, we have seen it increase in minutes and hours and skyrocketed. But people are not used to seeing this, its been like two months already. But the HODL'el mentality will really benefit us, long term. And that is why it is somewhat being promoted here in our community because in the end, you will be all winner, and don't be like this guy who sold it at measly 14$ a pop.

[Reid]

Next year will be his decade anniversary of regrets. 
We have a lot of this kind of experience.

I once saw on Youtube a kid who was so mad at the bitcoin price.
He was holding a cup of beer while screaming at the top of his lungs in front of a Bitcoin ATM.   
I bet he also have the same regrets now.
I think the price was still at $600 back then.

[slaman29]

Imagine $14 back in 2011 to $20k in 2017, that was a mind blowing rise and anyone in his shoes will definitely have some regrets seeing such increase, that's the reason why patient is very necessary when it comes to investment, at that time btc was at it's early stage, lots of people who bought didn't understand it and was not sure what the future holds,
Even with this type of example,  many people are still too eager, i guess it is part of human nature.

Nah, come on. Regret is for speculators who think like that today but in those days we couldn't have known and it's thanks to guys like that that volume created the market. Pizza Day (forgot his name). Thomas. It's all part of market history that if it did NOT happen, may never have led us to the price we have today:)

[rodskee]

Yeah, holding is the best way to earn maximum profit from bitcoin.

Setting up expectation in order include decent amount of patience to maximize your profits.

It is hard for bitcoin to become stabilized.

Volatile nature gives a good sign of fluctuation that can head up.

And the history have shown us many opportunities have been missed and many people sold their coin with cheap price.

Correct, those past investors who missed the ride are good examples to add more patience while investing to this market.

New technologies require a huge amount of time to be used and utilized by people.

It takes time and good morale boost to stand firm with your investment plans.

It is sad that currently I dont have much money to buy bitcoin.

That's the thing, money is your tool investing to this business.

Im trying to work as much as I can to have some extra budget for this precious investment 

Also, you can also look for extra source of income that pays bitcoin online.

[Yaunfitda]

To be fair to that person, the hodl mentality wasn't introduce until 2013 if I'm not mistaken. So maybe those early adopters doesn't have that concept and simply buying the hype and then liquidating them specially if they have profited. Regrets? Just remember the Pizza guy to understand what regrets really means.

[spazzdla]

I remember it stabalizing around $300 for a very long time.. then to $20k. That was a ride

[thesmallgod]

It is only regular traders that won't like the current stabilized bitcoin. Long time hodlers and merchants that accepting bitcoin as payment processor always want a less volatile scenarios because if it isn't stabilized the price can go in any direction leading to profit or loss. The current situation is testing our patient just the patient the twitter guy and that pizza guy lacked

[Josefjix]

It is only regular traders that won't like the current stabilized bitcoin. Long time hodlers and merchants that accepting bitcoin as payment processor always want a less volatile scenarios because if it isn't stabilized the price can go in any direction leading to profit or loss. The current situation is testing our patient just the patient the twitter guy and that pizza guy lacked

Everyday I ask myself "How will that pizza guy feel for the rest of his life". I wish I knew about Bitcoin the day it came out, not just knowing about it though believing to support its adoption would be all I will ever need. Merchants and the long HODLers are the ones making a longrun investment so far because in the nearest future, Bitcoin will hit the moon.

[ethereumhunter]

We can feel regret for the past, but we can not give up to get what we want. If we can learn from the past, I am sure that we can be better than now, and we will have the chance to reach our goals. In the crypto investment, we need to have patience because I see on that image, that man is tired of waiting for the price to jump. We should not be like him because we will regret when we see the price start to increase. After all, we already sell it at a price today. So if you want to make a profit from bitcoin, you should have a patient and calm down to see the price moving.

[Argoo]

In the second half of the summer, I almost always observe a lull in all markets, including the cryptocurrency one. At this time, business activity always falls due to massive vacations. This year, the coronavirus pandemic and measures to combat it may make a correction to the traditional price stabilization. In any case, while such price stabilization is also necessary. Cryptocurrencies cannot continue to rise in value. There must be time for both stabilization and a fall in prices. The high price volatility of the cryptocurrency will still show itself. I hope that the second half of autumn will be successful for the participants of this market.

[Sanugarid]

Damn I wish I bought BTC back in 2011.

I guess we are all dreaming of getting back in the past just to buy bitcoin, I could've sold my house just to buy it so I can live in mansion now lol

Was there any active crypto exchange platform back in 2011?I wasn't aware about Bitcoin back then.

Upon checking the history, the first crypto exchange is BitcoinMarket.com founded in 2010. Then the month after that, there were people who actually bought pizzas with bitcoin. That legendary pizza costs $18K now haha

Usually,when the price is stable,I expect a price dump to happen,because there's no support for a price increase and after waiting for so long,many traders get tired of waiting and start selling.
Anyway,your advise to HODL when the price is stable is something like a self fulfilling prophecy.The HODLers keep HODLing because the price is stable and the price is stable,because the HODLers keep HODLing.

When price is quite stable it is really hard to decide if you are going to buy or to sell coz it is just a blank space up there, so the best way I could think of is just to hold no matter what happen to the price, coz at the end of the day we all expect bitcoin to rise up.  

[bearexin]

People are too quick to forget things that happened before. When the price is falling they will complain, now that it has stayed stable they are still complaining that the price is stable, haha that’s quite funny. I am not even worried, I already took my position where I wanted it, a low price. One thing some investors never know is that during crisis is the right time to buy and that’s what I just did. While some investors are busy talking about if cryptocurrency will die off due to Coronavirus, I rather saw it as an opportunity and took actions.

Even at that level of $9,000+ I’m still happy with the price, I have not complained about stable prices so far even after I have been watching bitcoin prices within the same price zones for more than two months of time.

That twitter must be a big impressive one regarding to realize the power of holding. It would be really cool if we time travel by this kind of tweets and forum posts to enlighten ourselves about the power of long term holding and not getting panic nor frustrations out of stable or falling prices of bitcoins.

[TIDOVEE]

One thing is that for everyone that has experienced the last bull run especially as their first experience, must have learnt a lesson to work with in this awaiting one, the Twitter message that was shared was even for 2011 and that should be the maiden editing of bull run ever ,so I expect that the person should be a legend by now and must have made good use of the 2017 come back. I have learnt that every bull run is an opportunity of a stipulated time. So, no time to HODL unnecessarily.I've got to be smarter

[tbct_mt2]

Stability and votality. Which one do you like? I would like the second one, votality. Without votality, we don't have a real market with real interesting price action.

If you are marginal trade enthusiasts, you will like to see votality on the market because it brings opportunities to trade and get out in short time. However, it is stupid to keep your trade orders open when market is stable and wait for coming votalities (crash - up or down). Because if such crashes happen oppositely to your open orders, yours will be liquidated. Very high risks to keep open trading orders and waiting for crashes.

When market is stable for a long period, close your open orders, especially if they are marginal ones. Then, hang out to relax, and refresh your mind, your eyes, and come back when market moves again.