Lessons from the Past: When bitcoin's price stabilised

[Baofeng]

Lately, we have seen a lot of investors and crypto speculators saying that bitcoin's price movement is somewhat boring because it has been trading sideways for many weeks now. But I want to share something a similar incident or some scenario from the past. It was 9 years ago, early market's early stages but there's a pattern already. So this is a good time to remind everyone to just HODL and wait for the market to do it's thing. 



https://twitter.com/rockerest/status/91885405368098816

[pooya87]

the funny thing is that this stability happens regularly instead of being a very rare thing in bitcoin. granted the longer ones are still rare like this one we are currently in. for example during 2019 we had 3 stable phases with one being very long. the first being the long one during the $3k phase that lasted ~4 months while the other 2 were 1-2 months long.
and people react similarly during all, they get bored thinking bitcoin should always remain highly volatile and keep giving them profit! and they always forget that they should accumulate during stable times

[The Cryptovator]

Alright, current price movements isn't boring for me, because silence is forecast of sudden violence. As we know current global economic conditions isn't so good at the moment due to pandemics. But comparatively bitcoin playing very well even during this pandemic. When we have a cure, then our global economy will bump. So, at the same time we would expect a bull runs on bitcoin price as well. Most likely OP points are valid, it would repeat once again. We don't know when it would happen, but the overall price trend indicating for good things.

[vintages]

When they say it's boring, then it's because they aren't making money from it. Some so called investors or speculator just loves the ups and down revolving around Bitcoin. Cause indirectly they are making money from it.

Unfortunately those who will believe whatever they say are new investors who are just overly excited about the whole thing. Cause they need something to hold on that shows they are walking in the right direction, they believe the so called speculators.

[Bttzed03]

Welp, I've seen some predictions taking caution and waiting for a crash and I've also seen bullish posts. Whichever way it goes, there will always be winners and there will be losers on the trade. I doubt long term hodlers are bothered by these past trends and predictions though.

Lately, we have seen a lot of investors and crypto speculators saying that bitcoin's price movement is somewhat boring ~

There's always two sides of a coin. While there are people who prefer a volatile market so they can keep on profiting (or losing) from riding the trends, there are also those who wishes the price to become more stable for higher chance of mass adoption. I bet it's the latter who are happy now.

~ because it has been trading sideways for many weeks now.

bitcoin in a Kangaroo market.

[kryptqnick]

Lately, we have seen a lot of investors and crypto speculators saying that bitcoin's price movement is somewhat boring because it has been trading sideways for many weeks now. But I want to share something a similar incident or some scenario from the past. It was 9 years ago, early market's early stages but there's a pattern already. So this is a good time to remind everyone to just HODL and wait for the market to do it's thing. 



https://twitter.com/rockerest/status/91885405368098816

Wow, I bet such people really regret they didn't stay in the game! It always seems unbelievable that Bitcoin would grow higher. I remember being pretty sure that $1k is a very impressive price and that there's no way Bitcoin will get significantly higher than this. Just a few years later it seems that when Bitcoin's worth around $9k or slightly below that - it's a disaster! Thanks for reminding how big of a change can happen after a period of stability. And, to be honest, I'm quite comfortable with stability around $10k. I think it's better than rapid growth with fees spiking and then an even faster drop with a long-long time of recovery.

[pakhitheboss]

Well considering the past I am happy that Bitcoin is stable now. Last time it took a steep down dive after halving in 2016.
This year we all expected the same to happen but it did not.

I am sure most of us are now mature enough and will not do the same mistakes that some of us did back in 2011. Some of them are still biting their tongue after 2017 gigantic all time high.

[DeathAngel]

This is all expected, as we saw after the past halving there was a long period of nothingness. We’ll start to move up towards the end of the year slowly. The real fireworks won’t happen until mid to late 2021.

[Taskford]

Lately, we have seen a lot of investors and crypto speculators saying that bitcoin's price movement is somewhat boring because it has been trading sideways for many weeks now. But I want to share something a similar incident or some scenario from the past. It was 9 years ago, early market's early stages but there's a pattern already. So this is a good time to remind everyone to just HODL and wait for the market to do it's thing. 



https://twitter.com/rockerest/status/91885405368098816

Wow, I bet such people really regret they didn't stay in the game! It always seems unbelievable that Bitcoin would grow higher. I remember being pretty sure that $1k is a very impressive price and that there's no way Bitcoin will get significantly higher than this. Just a few years later it seems that when Bitcoin's worth around $9k or slightly below that - it's a disaster! Thanks for reminding how big of a change can happen after a period of stability. And, to be honest, I'm quite comfortable with stability around $10k. I think it's better than rapid growth with fees spiking and then an even faster drop with a long-long time of recovery.

For sure they are especially when they see the price way back on year 2017, for sure they are shaking their heads and counting their possible earnings if they hold their bitcoins for more longer times. So for this not to be happen again maybe its best to hope in while the price is affordable and save it for future or if we can't afford to hold  thewe can hold the 50% for long term purposes and the 50% half is for investment.

[BrewMaster]

Well considering the past I am happy that Bitcoin is stable now. Last time it took a steep down dive after halving in 2016.
This year we all expected the same to happen but it did not.

actually 2016 was mostly different and a lot more complicated than you said.
the rise started 2 months before halving on May 25 and continued rising from $450 to $770 for about a little more than a month. then we saw a big drop on June 18 and by July 7 that halving occurred price had already come down and stabilized at ~650.

if we didn't have the Covid drop then the price movement would have been the same thing and price would have been $15k.

[jossiel]

There's also Greg.



https://twitter.com/GregSchoen/status/70261648811761665

Thank you for reminding everyone Baofeng. This is all about patience, it's not going to be short but not also going to be that long. Our patience will be worthwhile!

[Loomely]

Everyone knows that the price will be very high after several years, but the short-term fluctuations are what make some people start profits quickly or gains.
The market has remained extremely volatile for long periods, and then we have witnessed a wave of stagnation, but the bad thing is uncertainty due to the fact that a lot of institutional funds do not know that you will invest.
investment will flow if the price moves heavily forward and everyone will bet on price volatility to create more liquidity.

[bittraffic]

Thomas must have been regretting all his life if he didn't buy back what he sold for $14. This stability of price happens almost very often before the jump. Somehow the investors back then are as impatient as today when it comes to waiting. Today the pattern is as obvious to happen once again and all it needs is more waiting once again. The coronavirus is making it more difficult to climb which the more waiting we do this time.

[Assface16678]

Most of the people before does not really want to trust the use of the bitcoin some of them already know the use and importance of the bitcoin but the problem is they ignore those times because they don't want to trust this existing coin, by the time goes by the market price of the coin are increasing rapidly and into the year of 2016-2017 the market price of the bitcoin reaches its higher market price which becomes popular to the news and this is a piece of good news because this encourages a lot of people getting an investment by that time some of them does have now a good motivation to make an investment and earn a lot of money and some of them now have a million-dollar market income.

[taufik123]

It's all about patience, being patient to reach a higher price, because Bitcoin has a good future. People who have known bitcoin since its inception are those who want to try new technologies using bitcoin payments or just try it.
Holding bitcoin for years and selling it when it reaches 20k will make it rich.
But the thought of the high price of bitcoin still not crossed at the time.

Those who sell bitcoin at low prices will certainly feel very sorry.

If there was a time machine that could take me to the past, I would buy up bitcoin. LOL

[dothebeats]

Usually when the price plateaus, or goes sideways for a long time, I tend to do other stuff that could sway my attention from bitcoin and crypto for a bit. It's actually a rare occasion for bitcoin to have its price stable, usually lasting only for a week or two then a sharp decline or rise happens. In this case, we've been in the $9k ranges for almost 2 months now, and there's really no telling where this market is heading too, as the signs are still too vague at this point in time. Mostly those who are screwed with bitcoin are those who are impatient and are always yapping about how 'slow' or how 'fast' price movements are, like this man on twitter. Little did he know that if he waited for a few more months, he'd never regret buying into bitcoin in the first place.

[klavyemaus52]

It's all about patience

That is really true word for crypto.
It is like if you want to earn some money you have to wait.
Like real world if you wanna make bread you have to wait fermentation.

[d5000]

One thing I noted is that these stable phases seem to happen especially often near or slightly below half the price of the previous ATH. However, if you look at the context, that's not always a good short-term sign.

Mid-2011: ATH ~$30, (relatively short) stable phase $14. (But afterwards, a crash to $2).
Second half of 2012: long stable phase around $15. (Afterwards: buildup to bullrun up to $260)
Mid-2013: first ATH ~$260, then a relatively stable phase ~$120-130. (Afterwards, a bullrun up to $1200)
End of 2015/early 2016: last ATH was ~$1200, long stable phase at $380-450. (Afterwards, a slow buildup to the rally of 2017)
and of course April to July 2020 at $9000-10000 (ATH before: ~$19500)

There are some significant "outliers", however:

First half of 2012: long stable phase at $5-6, at approximately 1/5 of the $30 ATH. (afterwards: slow buildup)
Mid-2015: long stable phase between $230-300, at approximately 1/5 of the $1200 ATH. (afterwards: slow buildup)
Mid-to-end 2018: long stable phase on $6000 (afterwards: crash to $3000).
Beginning of 2017: stable phase at ~$1500, slightly above the previous ATH of $1200 (afterwards: mother of all bubbles)
Beginning of 2019: stable phase slightly above the low of $3000 (about 1/6 of the ATH of $19500).

We see that "around half the ATH price" is definitively a price region where stable phases occur relatively often. Three of the four previous ocurrences of this pattern led to bull runs afterwards. (This could be a psychological phenomenon: if the price afterwards goes up it will approximate the ATH, what may give more power to the rally).

Conclusion: The current stability could definitively be a bullish sign, but it's not sure.

[btc_angela]

Conclusion: The current stability could definitively be a bullish sign, but it's not sure.

Thanks for a good explanation, yes, we might see some stabilisation and it could led to the next bull run, just a matter of time. I guess we can't really blame the guy for selling early, although early on there are a lot of early adopters, but there are a bunch of bag holders who also did sell and didn't hold like Thomas. Bitcoins is still at the early stages, and didn't see that it will grow this big. And it proves that holding mentality is really a very effective way, you just have the resiliency and the mental toughness not to dump and wait for the perfect time.

[Debonaire217]

Thanks for a good explanation, yes, we might see some stabilisation and it could led to the next bull run, just a matter of time. I guess we can't really blame the guy for selling early, although early on there are a lot of early adopters, but there are a bunch of bag holders who also did sell and didn't hold like Thomas. Bitcoins is still at the early stages, and didn't see that it will grow this big. And it proves that holding mentality is really a very effective way, you just have the resiliency and the mental toughness not to dump and wait for the perfect time.

I remember the statement of Vitalik, he's once a writer of articles and he was paid with bitcoin, although he developed Ethereum, I believe that he spent so much time understanding how bitcoin works, that he also value it the most the same thing as other early adopters. I wonder how many bitcoin he hodled till now, and seeing news like this from the past for sure, will make us more determined to hodl instead of being afraid for a decline. Bitcoin already proved to be so volatile that what it takes to earn our losses is to wait for the right time.

I am not discouraging others to sell, but completely leaving bitcoin behind might made you regret after.