Covid Theater:

[Spendulus]

How much longer is the social distancing and masks needed/tolerable?

[Spendulus]

Rt COVID-19

These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading

https://rt.live

What the media won't tell you about the CV case fatality rate.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/07/16/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-the-united-states-coronavirus-case-fatality-rate-n610264

Using R to model COVID

https://www.r-bloggers.com/top-5-r-resources-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

Visualize COVID-19 case data in a blink of an eye — using R, Shiny & Plotly

https://towardsdatascience.com/create-a-coronavirus-app-using-r-shiny-and-plotly-6a6abf66091d

[BADecker]

Masks will only be necessary for as long as the people don't sue (etc.) their governing officials for promoting anarchy.

[franky1]

kinda funny you avoid doing actual research, or some maths. and instead wanna make a topic about what franky says.. in some weird agenda that if you can dismiss what franky says then somehow it translates into bad things in the world not happening..
very weird strategy of ignorance of reality you are having

here is some reality about the possible time line of 'endgame'
take the UK
if there were 65k cases a day then thats 1% of population. meaning 70% herd immunity in 70 weeks
but the numbers are below 65k a day. so expect longer
but remember cases were low due to lockdown bringing it down.

but now lockdown is easing/stopped and we now in the social distancing phase. numbers are going up
there needs to find the right balance of spread but not so fast that it overwhelms hospitals
and the best case scenario would be 70 weeks., but expect 140 weeks


in the topic your trying to take out of context.. i said multiple options. and i said the best case would be 70weeks but expect something more like 140 weeks
yes we can all hope for 70 weeks. but alot of things have to line up and not be impeded by idiots.

also cloth face coverings are only 20% effective vs 95% surgical masks.. but the difference between standing 1metre apart vs 2metre apart is more preventative... and using a combination of masks and distance decreases the viral load inhaled per breath further meaning less of a battle to fight if infected

so even if your afraid of a facemask.. atleast respect other peoples personal space. if not for you, but for others

all people need to do is respect personal space as a minimum. its not that hard

as for the poll and what you THINK i said.
i actually said there are multiple options depending on different mid  game strategies
but yet again idiots want to take a biased view of a small bit of context and blow it up into a big conspiracy theory/lie
as the poll shows one obvious idiot already thinks its the end game now

atleast try to stick to whats actually said.. this forum keeps posts. its not like a chatroom that disapears when you exit the page

as for the 'what they are not telling you about fatality'
i already addressed this in another topic. but il do it again
the CDC is not the co-ordinating source of uptodate data. i know you silly little people want to use their delayed data to pump a narrative that it cant be right because its delayed.
the reason is simple the CDC is not source data never was.
if you want actual uptodate data more straight from source. look at the DHS(department of health services)

also. separetly
seems you want to pretend no one is dying, and all deaths are fake deaths to then make it seem that there are no death counts to correlate to the case counts.
what you will actually find, dare you actually look is there is a correlation of rise/peak of deaths vs rise/peak of hospitalisations vs rise/peak of cases confirmed
they dont happen all on one day. there is a trend from having mild symptoms/getting tested. to those symptoms getting worse to need hospital.. to then be in hospital and either be discharged or die.

this delay is ~1 week from initial symptom to needing hospital. and 2 weeks in hospital until better or dead
you can actually take these datapoints and work out actual case fatality rate

take a certain idiots state of arizona(i enjoy poking holes in his thoughts) with a 5k positive case peak. and a 500 hospitalisation peak and a 150 intubation peak and a 50 death peak
you can work out 10% need hospital care 3% need ventilation and 1% die
if you have it you have a 90% chance of not needing hospital
yep if you go to hospital you have a 90% chance of coming out better.
if you go onto vent you have a 66% chance of getting better

you will see the peak of each category if your looking at the real data and not data provided by the type of faux media that love antivaxxers/conspiracies.

.. but it seems a certain couple people in this topic are not interested in facts, they are interested in ways to dismiss facts to stick their head in the sand and pretend nothing bad is happening in the world

[Spendulus]

kinda funny you ....
you will see the ....
.. but it seems a certain couple people...

you could have avoided all this by just answering my first question the first time I asked it with 1.5 - 3.0 years is how long the lockdowns, masks and social distancing should continue.

But you didn't. I'm waiting for your "FrankyWorld" COVID R models.

What exactly is your problem with the "Area under the curve?"

[madnessteat]

Haha. If the world has launched such large-scale theatrical activities, I assume they will not end quickly. We'll probably see a second wave in the fall and it will be much bigger. Of course, according to the media who want to manipulate us. 

[BADecker]

^^^ Right! People are thrilled by horror and death in the movies. But the thrill is going away. So we gotta give them something that actually thrills their lives by being with them in person.

Oh the thrill of actually watching my own death while it is happening!

[Spendulus]

kinda funny you avoid doing actual research, or some maths. and instead wanna make a topic about what franky says......
and the best case scenario would be 70 weeks., but expect 140 weeks
.... i said multiple options. and i said the best case would be 70weeks but expect something more like 140 weeks
yes we can all hope for 70 weeks. ...
also cloth face coverings are only 20% effective vs 95% surgical masks.. but the difference between standing 1metre apart vs 2metre apart is more preventative... and using a combination of masks and distance decreases the viral load inhaled per breath further meaning less of a battle to fight if infected

so even if your afraid of a facemask.. atleast respect other peoples personal space. if not for you, but for others

all people need to do is respect personal space as a minimum. its not that hard

as for the poll and what you THINK i said.....

You're for 1.5 - 3.0 year lockdown.

Do you have any clue as to how idiotic that is?

Any shred of a clue as to how many people would die of non-COVID from a lockdown of that magnitude and duration? You don't, do you? Because if you did, you would never have said such things. Still waiting for those computational models, big math guy.

[BADecker]

kinda funny you avoid doing actual research, or some maths. and instead wanna make a topic about what franky says......
and the best case scenario would be 70 weeks., but expect 140 weeks
.... i said multiple options. and i said the best case would be 70weeks but expect something more like 140 weeks
yes we can all hope for 70 weeks. ...
also cloth face coverings are only 20% effective vs 95% surgical masks.. but the difference between standing 1metre apart vs 2metre apart is more preventative... and using a combination of masks and distance decreases the viral load inhaled per breath further meaning less of a battle to fight if infected

so even if your afraid of a facemask.. atleast respect other peoples personal space. if not for you, but for others

all people need to do is respect personal space as a minimum. its not that hard

as for the poll and what you THINK i said.....

You're for 1.5 - 3.0 year lockdown.

Do you have any clue as to how idiotic that is?

Any shred of a clue as to how many people would die of non-COVID from a lockdown of that magnitude and duration? You don't, do you? Because if you did, you would never have said such things. Still waiting for those computational models, big math guy.

Maybe frank1 is really Bill or Melinda Gates, and they want to depopulate by any means they can... even lockdowns.

[mindrust]

Till a very effective medicine becomes available.

I'll be cautious till that happens. What if never happens? Then I'll be cautious forever.

Another lockdown is not going to solve the problem completely. They will do it only if the health system gets stressed. Since it looks like they handle it quite well lately, they won't do it.

[BADecker]

Till a very effective medicine becomes available.

I'll be cautious till that happens. What if never happens? Then I'll be cautious forever.

Another lockdown is not going to solve the problem completely. They will do it only if the health system gets stressed. Since it looks like they handle it quite well lately, they won't do it.

The medical doesn't even know what Covid is. Doctors are applying symptoms of all kinds of diseases to the thing that they call Covid, without having ever satisfied an actual virus pandemic.

Nobody will find a medicine for the pandemic except if it is a general medicine. The best ideas and "medicines" are right here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5252003.40.

[mindrust]

In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.

Slow down? yes.

Stop? No.

The virus will never go away. Without an effective medicine, it will be a never ending nightmare.

The medical doesn't even know what Covid is. Doctors are applying symptoms of all kinds of diseases to the thing that they call Covid, without having ever satisfied an actual virus pandemic.

Nobody will find a medicine for the pandemic except if it is a general medicine. The best ideas and "medicines" are right here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5252003.40.

Only vitamin C? I take 2 pills everyday but I am not sure if it will work. 

[franky1]

badecker is not sure about covid because he is playing the ignorance card and the stick head in the sand card.

however real doctors and scientists know what covid is and does to people
science is not magic and magic is not science. there is actually technology, equipment and processes that can identify and diagnose whats really happening
doctors dont just pick random diagnosis

badecker has been told of the gene sequences that identify it. he has been told of the symptomology that goes with it. he has been shown xrays and other scan results of people with it. microsrope views of it. and there are loads of people talking about their experiences.

but badecker wants to remain in 12th century voodoo land of witch doctors trying to sell herbs where they say the only cure is to dry hump another person while buying into herbal remedies and buying cult memberships of faux media sites

[BADecker]

badecker is not sure about covid because he is playing the ignorance card and the stick head in the sand card.

however real doctors and scientists know what covid is and does to people
science is not magic and magic is not science. there is actually technology, equipment and processes that can identify and diagnose whats really happening
doctors dont just pick random diagnosis

badecker has been told of the gene sequences that identify it. he has been told of the symptomology that goes with it. he has been shown xrays and other scan results of people with it. microsrope views of it. and there are loads of people talking about their experiences.

but badecker wants to remain in 12th century voodoo land of witch doctors trying to sell herbs where they say the only cure is to dry hump another person while buying into herbal remedies and buying cult memberships of faux media sites

franky1 has been shown that the stuff that was genetically sequenced wasn't filtered properly. So nobody knows what it was that was sequenced.

However, this isn't important. Why not? Because nobody has injected whatever was sequenced, into a healthy person to see if he would get sick... a requirement to determine if a call for pandemic is even conscionable.

The whole Covid operation is a medical scam at its foundations, and franky1 knows it.

[Spendulus]

...

Americans should start wearing masks NOW or have 1M+ deaths by November, 2020, and 50M+ deaths by November 2021.

In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.

50+? Wow, that's way more than the 1918 Spanish Flu, 50-100M deaths for the entire world.

You seriously believe that number?

[franky1]

franky1 has been shown that the stuff that was genetically sequenced wasn't filtered properly. So nobody knows what it was that was sequenced.

badecker was shown an article from someone thats not even treating patients. where that writer thinks there has only been one sample, one sequence and one result

i showed badecker thousands of samples/sequences from thousands of hospitals all using different batches of chemicals different instruments different patients and where all of them had the same symptomatology and issues. and guess what. they found the common denominator.

yea if we go with badeckers ignorant idea of there only being one case. he might have a point that something may have gone wrong. but with thousands of results from thousands of different locations and patients all with a common denominator. i think badecker has to realise that the place he gets his scripts from are wrong

[Spendulus]

...i think badecker has to realise that the place he gets his scripts from are wrong

That concept is not inconsistent with your ideas being wrong, lol...

[BADecker]

franky1 has been shown that the stuff that was genetically sequenced wasn't filtered properly. So nobody knows what it was that was sequenced.

badecker was shown an article from someone thats not even treating patients article. where that writer thinks there has only been one sample, one sequence and one result

i showed badecker thousands of samples/sequences from thousands of hospitals all using different batches of chemicals different instruments different patients and where all of them had the same symptomatology and issues. and guess what. they found the common denominator.

yea if we go with badeckers ignorant idea of there only being one case. he might have a point that something may have gone wrong. but with thousands of results from thousands of different locations and patients all with a common denominator. i think badecker has to realise that the place he gets his scripts from are wrong

Anybody can right science fiction reports. Can you show and explain how those reports followed Rivers' update of Koch's Postulates? Can you show and explain which one of them even shows the Covid virus being properly discovered according to Rivers processes?

Come on! You are so good, right? You can badmouth me all day long, and it doesn't make any difference one way or another, because I am not in the medical. Do it to put Kaufman down. He would enjoy somebody correcting any mistakes he has. He might even enjoy showing you where you are wrong.

I showed you Kaufman and his explanation. You showed a bunch of NIH reports that you couldn't even explain.

Get with it, man. We enjoy your blabbing.

[Spendulus]

...

Americans should start wearing masks NOW or have 1M+ deaths by November, 2020, and 50M+ deaths by November 2021.

In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.

50+? Wow, that's way more than the 1918 Spanish Flu, 50-100M deaths for the entire world.

You seriously believe that number?

If nothing is done, by November we will get...

infected = (day count)^1.04

and almost everyone will be infected for the first time by November assuming 4% infection rate (it might be quite higher and non-linear, once schools open without any restrictions).

The mortality of second infections will be much higher as internal organs would already be permanently damaged by first infections.

I am assuming it will be around 50% for the people who get second infections.  As we approach the herd immunity, the virus might mutate further as it will be harder for it to survive, so all bets are off.

People do not quite understand the gravity of the situation.

Okay, I see your method. I don't agree with it, but here is a suggestion. Why not look at major pandemics of the past, and various imputed real world growth rates?

You don't have a sound theoretical basis for an unbounded weak exponential growth rate.

I guess what I am saying is toss out all the garbage in the media, and go with sound modeling. Take for example this:

https://rt.live/

[franky1]

i told you and showed you months ago.
i know you want to advertise that andrew kaufman. but the funny thing is that you keep advertising just him as your source that koch/rivers has not been followed

but to save you tripping over yourself yet again. although i know you will just change direction and avoid realising the hole you made for yourself

back in january US labs were saying they identified the virus and such but didnt finalise it by not then purposefully infecting healthy subjects. and it was this article that your outdated conspiracy nuts latched onto and for the last 5 months have been repeating scripts of
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7077245/#sec5-viruses-12-00135title
note. this in JANUARY

but then there are labs from february onwards that were doing the final stage. ill show you 2. and let you learn about a thing called google if you actually care to learn about more(its not difficult)
mouse-UK-february
https://www.immunology.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/literature-digest-old/the-pathogenicity-of-sars-cov-2-in-hace2-transgenic-mice
hamster -hongkong -march
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa325/5811871

if you can just stop circling scripts from january and realise that its july and your scripts have been debunked. then maybe you can spend that time on something new thats not been said before