Covid Theater:

[Spendulus]

...

Americans should start wearing masks NOW or have 1M+ deaths by November, 2020, and 50M+ deaths by November 2021.

In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.

50+? Wow, that's way more than the 1918 Spanish Flu, 50-100M deaths for the entire world.

You seriously believe that number?

If nothing is done, by November we will get...

infected = (day count)^1.04

and almost everyone will be infected for the first time by November assuming 4% infection rate (it might be quite higher and non-linear, once schools open without any restrictions).

The mortality of second infections will be much higher as internal organs would already be permanently damaged by first infections.

I am assuming it will be around 50% for the people who get second infections.  As we approach the herd immunity, the virus might mutate further as it will be harder for it to survive, so all bets are off.

People do not quite understand the gravity of the situation.

Okay, I see your method. I don't agree with it, but here is a suggestion. Why not look at major pandemics of the past, and various imputed real world growth rates?

You don't have a sound theoretical basis for an unbounded weak exponential growth rate.

I guess what I am saying is toss out all the garbage in the media, and go with sound modeling. Take for example this:

https://rt.live/

[franky1]

i told you and showed you months ago.
i know you want to advertise that andrew kaufman. but the funny thing is that you keep advertising just him as your source that koch/rivers has not been followed

but to save you tripping over yourself yet again. although i know you will just change direction and avoid realising the hole you made for yourself

back in january US labs were saying they identified the virus and such but didnt finalise it by not then purposefully infecting healthy subjects. and it was this article that your outdated conspiracy nuts latched onto and for the last 5 months have been repeating scripts of
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7077245/#sec5-viruses-12-00135title
note. this in JANUARY

but then there are labs from february onwards that were doing the final stage. ill show you 2. and let you learn about a thing called google if you actually care to learn about more(its not difficult)
mouse-UK-february
https://www.immunology.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/literature-digest-old/the-pathogenicity-of-sars-cov-2-in-hace2-transgenic-mice
hamster -hongkong -march
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa325/5811871

if you can just stop circling scripts from january and realise that its july and your scripts have been debunked. then maybe you can spend that time on something new thats not been said before

[af_newbie]

...

Americans should start wearing masks NOW or have 1M+ deaths by November, 2020, and 50M+ deaths by November 2021.

In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.

50+? Wow, that's way more than the 1918 Spanish Flu, 50-100M deaths for the entire world.

You seriously believe that number?

If nothing is done, by November we will get...

infected = (day count)^1.04

and almost everyone will be infected for the first time by November assuming 4% infection rate (it might be quite higher and non-linear, once schools open without any restrictions).

The mortality of second infections will be much higher as internal organs would already be permanently damaged by first infections.

I am assuming it will be around 50% for the people who get second infections.  As we approach the herd immunity, the virus might mutate further as it will be harder for it to survive, so all bets are off.

People do not quite understand the gravity of the situation.

Okay, I see your method. I don't agree with it, but here is a suggestion. Why not look at major pandemics of the past, and various imputed real world growth rates?

You don't have a sound theoretical basis for an unbounded weak exponential growth rate.

I guess what I am saying is toss out all the garbage in the media, and go with sound modeling. Take for example this:

https://rt.live/

There is not much to disagree.  Maybe the future rates. There is plenty of irrational behaviour going on in the US.  I guess more than the 'global' average. That is what is surprising.

Back in March I did similar extrapolation based on Italy's numbers and people propably thought I have lost my mind, but the numbers were
more or less correct.

... We only have like 33 presumptive cases in the state that I am in at the moment, and I live in a rather large state.(area wise)

There will be about 10K cases in the US in a week or so. 100K in a month, 1M in 3 months, unless the US government steps in and shows some backbone, close the borders, suspend schools, people gatherings, airports, public transportation and pour money into the development of coronavirus vaccines.
...

Not sure why the handling of this pandemic has been made into a political issue.  Too close to the election? Maybe Trump cannot admit the mistake he has made at the beginning by not mandating masks from the get go, and has cornered himself now in hopes this thing will go away by itself.

Well, it will, just like all wild fires do.

Here are some covid idiots for you (the Canadian Edition):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TInQ0CpSY6A

People do not understand how big oxygen, carbon dioxide, nucleotides, proteins, RNA molecules or corona viruses are.  

When cornered they become agressive or don't want to talk about it.  All suffer from cognitive dissonance.

Guess what BADeckers guys, condoms are also not 100% effective, just like the N95 masks.  Yet people use them all the time.

BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country.  Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

I think it is just better to use https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers and look at the rate of change at various points.

[coolcoinz]

The mortality of second infections will be much higher as internal organs would already be permanently damaged by first infections.

I am assuming it will be around 50% for the people who get second infections.  As we approach the herd immunity, the virus might mutate further as it will be harder for it to survive, so all bets are off.

People do not quite understand the gravity of the situation.

Nice FUD to scare the masses and start another wave of raids on stores by hungry TP pirates.
Since when does covid permanently damage internal organs of people who contract it? Most people react to it like they would to a common cold and even pneumonia doesn't do permanent damage unless you ignore it. But most ignored infections can cause death, even something as simple as tonsillitis.
50% deaths from covid is as big of an extrapolation as a million dollar Bitcoin.

[Spendulus]

,,,,
BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country.  Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

I think it is just better to use https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers and look at the rate of change at various points.

Okay, let's use that one.

It shows the US to have about a 4% death rate on those infected, so extrapolating that straight out over the 331M population would predict a US death count of 13m. But this isn't really accurate for several reasons. It assumes all infections are serious and reported, and it assumes the entire population is infected.

Still, that's 13m, not 50-100M. You can't get to 50-100m dead in the USA from this disease.

Taking into account the factors (bolded) a lot of people would suggest the actual death rate < 1%.

Are you still believing 50-100M?

[af_newbie]

,,,,
BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country.  Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

I think it is just better to use https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers and look at the rate of change at various points.

Okay, let's use that one.

It shows the US to have about a 4% death rate on those infected, so extrapolating that straight out over the 331M population would predict a US death count of 13m. But this isn't really accurate for several reasons. It assumes all infections are serious and reported, and it assumes the entire population is infected.

Still, that's 13m, not 50-100M. You can't get to 50-100m dead in the USA from this disease.

Taking into account the factors (bolded) a lot of people would suggest the actual death rate < 1%.

Are you still believing 50-100M?

These things overshoot, 10M dead will have repercussions that will lead to partial degradation of basic services.  Not to mention possibility of secondary infections on the remaining 320M 'inoculated' population.  Hence, my 50M+ dead count by Nov 2021.

People don't realize how vulnerable our societies are.  It is the domino effect that will bring us to 50M+, The Walking Dead scenario.

I must admit that it is probably unlikely even for hardcore, no-mask 'freedom fighters' from your local trailer park, even they will succumb to the realization that something needs to be done to stop the spread when their loved ones start dying.

But, like I said, if nothing is done, that is where we are headed.

[BADecker]

Destruction of the economy will kill 20 times more than Covid could ever think of killing.

[Spendulus]

,,,,
BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country.  Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

I think it is just better to use https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers and look at the rate of change at various points.

Okay, let's use that one.

It shows the US to have about a 4% death rate on those infected, so extrapolating that straight out over the 331M population would predict a US death count of 13m. But this isn't really accurate for several reasons. It assumes all infections are serious and reported, and it assumes the entire population is infected.

Still, that's 13m, not 50-100M. You can't get to 50-100m dead in the USA from this disease.

Taking into account the factors (bolded) a lot of people would suggest the actual death rate < 1%.

Are you still believing 50-100M?

These things overshoot, 10M dead will have repercussions that will lead to partial degradation of basic services.  Not to mention possibility of secondary infections on the remaining 320M 'inoculated' population.  Hence, my 50M+ dead count by Nov 2021......
But, like I said, if nothing is done, that is where we are headed.

And they also undershoot. Predictions of epidemics are notoriously bad. Hence my providing direct links to R statistical models.

But it does look like you'd have to have some huge secondary thing to get to 50M,doesn't it?

[CryptocurencyKing]

Social distancing... So simple a rule but the most difficult to keep. You can never tell how long so far as we still have this pandemic coursing a lot of menace in our mist.
As much as we are tired of loosing some amount of comfort, we most also know that comfort comes with a price and not all prices are good.
Let's do the things we can do today to avoid critics later.
Stay safe.

[franky1]

BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country.  Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

numbers in FL.. you said its 1.06.. but reality is 1.3 average
it managed a 1.07 for the last half of May but by june 3rd numbers were above 1.1

heck even just looking at a graph you can see that the upward angle is not a low 1.0X amount


calculating R₀ is easy
pick a day and get the case numbers.
then find the case numbers for 7 days before it

then do: 1/days case*last weeks day case
because nature is not organised. its best to try it over a few days to get a better picture

EG one day(using its 7th day previous) might be 1.25 the next day(using its 7th day previous) might be 1.35

but one thing is for sure even without the math(just visual chart) or with the math. it hasnt been a 1.0X day or averaged week since may

its kinda simple .. if there was 3400 cases 4 weeks ago
then 1.06 repeated 4 times would be about 4300 average case number
yet its more like over 11k case numbers. so definetly over 1.06x

..
a few things to note though
the r₀ in march-april was high(3-9 range) but that was with mostly symptomatic people.
the r₀ seems high at 1.3. but thats because testing centres are now also testing asymptomic people which means the numbers are not really showing how much is actually transmitting via the virus actually bursting out of peoples lungs and being exhaled. vs the asymptomatics that are not transmitting it.

its why you have to factor in all these things and also how much hospitalisation there is to get a better view
they are trying to introduce Re which accounts/excludes for the asymptomatics because of this. which would be different from r₀ and lower

[Spendulus]

BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country.  Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

numbers in FL.. you said its 1.06.. but reality is 1.3 average
it managed a 1.07 for the last half of May but by june 3rd numbers were above 1.1

heck even just looking at a graph you can see that the upward angle is not a low 1.0X amount
....

FL is at 1.03

https://rt.live/us/FL

...But I suggest waiting a week or two on FL, there have been massive errors reported from there, over reporting covid and deaths.

It may actually be <1.0

[franky1]

BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country.  Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

numbers in FL.. you said its 1.06.. but reality is 1.3 average
it managed a 1.07 for the last half of May but by june 3rd numbers were above 1.1

heck even just looking at a graph you can see that the upward angle is not a low 1.0X amount
....

FL is at 1.03

https://rt.live/us/FL

...But I suggest waiting a week or two on FL, there have been massive errors reported from there, over reporting covid and deaths.

It may actually be <1.0

the cases graph is ACTAULLY / not _

by the way the "error" is not thats there are more or less positive cases. its just that they didnt include the negative cases to show the ratio of positive to negative

yet graphs of positive cases have only shown positive cases and dont include the negative cases. so it wouldnt have any impact

there is already too many people just asking for a test even without having symptoms. so the negative test numbers become a meaningless statistic that explains nothing.

if there were only ~10k cases a day. and labs can do 20millions tests a day. it will still show only ~10k positive tests.
negative tests are irrelevant. no matter how many they can do or not report about the ones not positive. it doesnt affect the positive tests

[BADecker]

BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country.  Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

numbers in FL.. you said its 1.06.. but reality is 1.3 average
it managed a 1.07 for the last half of May but by june 3rd numbers were above 1.1

heck even just looking at a graph you can see that the upward angle is not a low 1.0X amount
....

FL is at 1.03

https://rt.live/us/FL

...But I suggest waiting a week or two on FL, there have been massive errors reported from there, over reporting covid and deaths.

It may actually be <1.0

the cases graph is ACTAULLY / not _

by the way the "error" is not thats there are more or less positive cases. its just that they didnt include the negative cases to show the ratio of positive to negative

yet graphs of positive cases have only shown positive cases and dont include the negative cases. so it wouldnt have any impact

there is already too many people just asking for a test even without having symptoms. so the negative test numbers become a meaningless statistic that explains nothing.

if there were only ~10k cases a day. and labs can do 20millions tests a day. it will still show only ~10k positive tests.
negative tests are irrelevant. no matter how many they can do or not report about the ones not positive. it doesnt affect the positive tests

You almost make it sound like doctors know what they are doing. But since there are multitudes of people who die under their care, is this something you really want to be talking like?

[Spendulus]

...

there is already too many people just asking for a test even without having symptoms. so the negative test numbers become a meaningless statistic that explains nothing.....

Says who? You?

The goal of the test is to provide information to the one taking the test. The goal of the test is not to structure data sets to your liking.

[BADecker]

Many of us have known for a long time that the numbers have been skewed... and lied about by the media.


CDC #'s Show NO Statistically Significant Increase in Overall U.S. Death #'s

After all, we shut down our entire economy, destroyed many businesses (blaming them for not managing well only to increase their stress and depression), and we increased anxiety and fear enormously. So why don't the numbers show an increase of overall deaths in the United States? In fact, considering population growth and significantly increasing aging population (see chart), we should see a rising death number. Let's take a look at the numbers:

According to the CDC, the United States has seen a slight increase in overall deaths so far in 2020 compared to the same period over the last four years. Note: the last number in the chart below is the population growth from the year before. Also, the chart is from January 1 thru the 2nd week of May.

[Spendulus]

Many of us have known for a long time that the numbers have been skewed... and lied about by the media.


CDC #'s Show NO Statistically Significant Increase in Overall U.S. Death #'s

After all, we shut down our entire economy, destroyed many businesses (blaming them for not managing well only to increase their stress and depression), and we increased anxiety and fear enormously. So why don't the numbers show an increase of overall deaths in the United States? In fact, considering population growth and significantly increasing aging population (see chart), we should see a rising death number. Let's take a look at the numbers:

According to the CDC, the United States has seen a slight increase in overall deaths so far in 2020 compared to the same period over the last four years. Note: the last number in the chart below is the population growth from the year before. Also, the chart is from January 1 thru the 2nd week of May.

Next you'll be claiming the US didn't actually send men to the Moon in the Apollo program.

Oh, wait, you did used to claim that...

[BADecker]

Many of us have known for a long time that the numbers have been skewed... and lied about by the media.


CDC #'s Show NO Statistically Significant Increase in Overall U.S. Death #'s

After all, we shut down our entire economy, destroyed many businesses (blaming them for not managing well only to increase their stress and depression), and we increased anxiety and fear enormously. So why don't the numbers show an increase of overall deaths in the United States? In fact, considering population growth and significantly increasing aging population (see chart), we should see a rising death number. Let's take a look at the numbers:

According to the CDC, the United States has seen a slight increase in overall deaths so far in 2020 compared to the same period over the last four years. Note: the last number in the chart below is the population growth from the year before. Also, the chart is from January 1 thru the 2nd week of May.

Next you'll be claiming the US didn't actually send men to the Moon in the Apollo program.

Oh, wait, you did used to claim that...

Yabut. The joker in the article must have proof, or he wouldn't have written the article, right?

 

[Eugenar]

We can't say how long his pandemic virus will stay in our world, so basically we cant say also when do we need to stop wearing a mask and keep the social distancing, there is no problem on wearing facemask because even though there is no pandemic there are many people who are wearing it to avoid some disease and pollution during travel. Still hoping that this situation will be fine as soon as possible.

[Spendulus]

....

Next you'll be claiming the US didn't actually send men to the Moon in the Apollo program.

Oh, wait, you did used to claim that...

Yabut. The joker in the article must have proof, or he wouldn't have written the article, right?

 

So what caused you to decided that regular history is correct? That we really did land six spaceships on the Moon, each with two American astronauts?

[franky1]

...

there is already too many people just asking for a test even without having symptoms. so the negative test numbers become a meaningless statistic that explains nothing.....

Says who? You?

The goal of the test is to provide information to the one taking the test. The goal of the test is not to structure data sets to your liking.

exactly
like your trying to structure sets of data such as pretending the negative tests mean something they dont.


as for says who.. well in the UK many people are taking the tests without symptoms.
theres been days where there were most days over hundred thousand tests taken daily but only a few hundred positive or few thousand positive

the actual public health authority have said for people to get the test
1. if they have symptoms
2. if they have been in close proximity to someone who has had it
3. if they have a doctors appointment for any reason to avoid spreading it to non covid departments

many people have been using clause 2. by saying they have been near someone

so it aint me saying it. its pretty much common knowledge in UK cases and why they are doing 1-200k tests a day but only getting a few hundred positive results

but.. my point was it doesnt matter if they were doing 50k tests a day or 200k tests a day, if there were only a few hundred people with it.. then there will still be only a few hundred people with it

which is the same common sense thing no matter the country/state