USDT/BTC pairs total volume is only about 7% of total Bitcoin volume......

[StonksStonksStonks]

Does tether collapsing matter anymore?  $1.2 billion volume is BTC/USDT compared to total BTC volume of $17 billion. In other words about 7% of the volume for bitcoin is tether.

We used to worry tether collapse was such a big deal, but the volume for tether seems to be a much bigger deal for tiny shitcoin that only trade for tether. Now we have other stablecoins emerging and altcoins taking up most of the tether volume. Furthermore, the largest bitcoin exchange is no longer Bitfinex - the creator of tether.  

So what im saying is tether collapsing seems kinda meh these days. Mt Gox collapse drove the price of bitcoin down from $1200 to $250, so i used to fear Bitfwhat doinex the collapsing, but now its no longer the largest exchange. Its also been so long that it most people are aware of the tether bullshit. So is the collapse of tether priced in?...looking for thoughts and opinions

[jackg]

Did anyone ever trust bitfinex?
I don't think an exchange collapsing would cause much damage now unless it was two at once (like binance and coinbase at once) otherwise people are probably prepared for it...

I personally prefer dai and usdc because they both have certain advantages, I don't see a point in tether...

[exstasie]

$1.2 billion volume is BTC/USDT compared to total BTC volume of $17 billion. In other words about 7% of the volume for bitcoin is tether.

I'm skeptical. Chances are that you are including an incredible amount of fake volume in that "total BTC volume" number.

I did an analysis about this last month. People are in denial about it, but Tether and Bitfinex are a very, very important part of the exchange ecosystem and have a significant effect on price discovery.

I'm saying we know a huge Chinese OTC market for USDT draws on BTCUSDT exchange liquidity, so unlike altcoin markets (which have huge incentives to pump fake volume) these markets are likely be "real."

Even if we subtract Huobi from the equation, since they didn't make Bitwise's cut, just compare BTCUSD and BTCUSDT volumes at the 10 exchanges with "real" volume:

24-hour BTCUSDT spot volume (plus Bitfinex): $620,677,865

24-hour BTCUSD spot volume (minus Bitfinex): $244,247,346

Liquidity and volume is everything. I assume as long as USDT is trading ~ $1 that BTCUSDT markets have a huge effect on BTC price discovery. Whether people like it or not, Tether is a very important part of the BTC market.

So is the collapse of tether priced in?

Nope.

[StonksStonksStonks]

I'm saying we know a huge Chinese OTC market for USDT draws on BTCUSDT exchange liquidity, so unlike altcoin markets (which have huge incentives to pump fake volume) these markets are likely be "real."

Even if we subtract Huobi from the equation, since they didn't make Bitwise's cut, just compare BTCUSD and BTCUSDT volumes at the 10 exchanges with "real" volume:

24-hour BTCUSDT spot volume (plus Bitfinex): $620,677,865

24-hour BTCUSD spot volume (minus Bitfinex): $244,247,346

Liquidity and volume is everything. I assume as long as USDT is trading ~ $1 that BTCUSDT markets have a huge effect on BTC price discovery. Whether people like it or not, Tether is a very important part of the BTC market.

thats a poor way to do it becuase it doesnt count the other currencies, you are excluding:
BTC/EUR
BTC/GBP
BTC/JPY
BTC/USDC
BTC/DAI
ect

The way i did it was using https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin#markets and total up all the tether volume (use the search feature to only show BTC/USDT)

Honsetly most traders will just move from binance to coinbase after tether collapse and to DAI for the stablecoin stuff.

[Fundamentals Of]

It probably still matters but only a little. It will not be like when Bitcoin plunged from $1,200 to $250 when Mt Gox collapsed. It may not even affect the price.

Tether (USDT) has already gone past its golden days. Gone are the days when Tether (USDT) was the only stablecoin in the crypto world. Nowadays, there are many. If Tether (USDT) pairs will be removed, people will just shift to other pairs.

[pooya87]

this is exactly what i have been saying for about 3 years now! specially since a couple of years ago they kept saying "Tether printing is pumping bitcoin price". Tether is mainly used for altcoins not for bitcoin. of course my calculation was by summing all the BTC/Fiat currencies divided by total altcoin/Tether volume and the result was closer to 2% IIRC.

Does tether collapsing matter anymore? 

that is a different matter in my opinion.
does Tether affect bitcoin price? no
does bitcoin rely on Tether? absolutely not.
does bitcoin trading rely on Tether? absolutely not.
does Tether demise affect bitcoin? most probably yes.

you see it is still a negative news and Tether won't collapse on its own, it will collapse with the company behind it and that company also controls a moderately big bitcoin exchange called bitfinex. such news can affect bitcoin negatively like any other bad news in the past.

Mt Gox collapse drove the price of bitcoin down from $1200 to $250,

it was down to $150 and it was not only because of Mt Gox. there were many reasons that caused that drop for starters the $1200 price in 2013 was a bubble similar to $20000 was a bubble in 2019 and $250 was a bubble before 2013 and $16 was a bubble in 2011 and $1 was a bubble before that. all of these cases ended with the same bubble burst and same huge drop in a rather long bear market.
there was also silkroad closure, panic sells, ASIC mining replacing GPU mining and putting a lot of hobby miners with a lot of bitcoin in their wallets out of a job, a shitton of FUD about how bitcoin is dead and is going down to $20, the start of the bitcoin civil war about scaling and ...

[buwaytress]

Never really been particularly interested in these complex web of affairs of Bitfinex and co (although Spoofy took my attention for a while back in 2016) but if Tether's only 7% because all of the other major shares are taken by OTHER stablecoins, then isn't the "problem" that it's all the volume with a basket of centralizes stablecoins? I mean, I couldn't care more for Binance, or whatever other entity, they're all as untrustworthy as Bitfinex to me.

[exstasie]

Never really been particularly interested in these complex web of affairs of Bitfinex and co (although Spoofy took my attention for a while back in 2016) but if Tether's only 7% because all of the other major shares are taken by OTHER stablecoins, then isn't the "problem" that it's all the volume with a basket of centralizes stablecoins? I mean, I couldn't care more for Binance, or whatever other entity, they're all as untrustworthy as Bitfinex to me.

I don't understand all the hate stablecoins get. When you hold and trade USD liabilities on a fiat exchange like Bitstamp, it's not all that different from holding and trading USD liabilities issued by Tether.

Your USD balance on Bitstamp is just an IOU from Bitstamp, and you are trusting them not to print fake dollars not backed by customer deposits. The same thing applies to the USDT balance in your local wallet, or your USDT balance on Binance, with regard to Tether.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Bitfinex and Tether are extremely important for BTC price discovery and represent a massive part of the ecosystem's existing trade liquidity. The only way to deny that fact is by citing incredible amounts of fake volume from shady exchanges, so as to dilute the real volume represented by Bitfinex and Tether.

[StonksStonksStonks]

Never really been particularly interested in these complex web of affairs of Bitfinex and co (although Spoofy took my attention for a while back in 2016) but if Tether's only 7% because all of the other major shares are taken by OTHER stablecoins, then isn't the "problem" that it's all the volume with a basket of centralizes stablecoins? I mean, I couldn't care more for Binance, or whatever other entity, they're all as untrustworthy as Bitfinex to me.

Spoofy was wild. Bid spoofing is common on the stock exchanges, See it on large cap stocks all the time, i remember watching it on Aliababa's stock in particular. Im sure there will be many more bid spoofers on bitcoin in the future.

[buwaytress]

I don't understand all the hate stablecoins get. When you hold and trade USD liabilities on a fiat exchange like Bitstamp, it's not all that different from holding and trading USD liabilities issued by Tether.

Your USD balance on Bitstamp is just an IOU from Bitstamp, and you are trusting them not to print fake dollars not backed by customer deposits. The same thing applies to the USDT balance in your local wallet, or your USDT balance on Binance, with regard to Tether.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Bitfinex and Tether are extremely important for BTC price discovery and represent a massive part of the ecosystem's existing trade liquidity. The only way to deny that fact is by citing incredible amounts of fake volume from shady exchanges, so as to dilute the real volume represented by Bitfinex and Tether.

Oh yeah, I totally get it for traders, but I've actually worked with a few stablecoin companies (not Tether) and they all think the same, that they're Messiah giving us exactly what we've been craving for. To be fair, Tether did that well and they nailed that one thing you talk about that all traders really did want badly. Exchanges were already issuing their own tokens (think Russian ones especially, redeemable later for btc or usd) but Tether went a step further and did it the blockchain way, so credit to them for thinking like that.

And I agree with you. I see USD balance on any exchange the same as a stablecoin =) They're all useful, as are the banks I use. Doesn't mean I gotta trust them;)

[pooya87]

I don't understand all the hate stablecoins get. When you hold and trade USD liabilities on a fiat exchange like Bitstamp, it's not all that different from holding and trading USD liabilities issued by Tether.

there is a HUGE difference!
if you deposit 1 USD in any exchange like Coinbase, that exchange is legally bound to pay you back 1 USD.
but if you buy 1 Tether, bitfinex has no liability whatsoever to pay you 1 USD in return. that is in the legal agreement that you accepted (possibly without reading) when you started using Tether. they do not guarantee the price or its survival. someday they can decide that 1 million Tether is equal to 1 USD and pay you that much.
but Coinbase for instance will never be able to pay you 1 USD for each 1 million USD you deposited. they have to pay you back the same amount.

[exstasie]

I don't understand all the hate stablecoins get. When you hold and trade USD liabilities on a fiat exchange like Bitstamp, it's not all that different from holding and trading USD liabilities issued by Tether.

there is a HUGE difference!
if you deposit 1 USD in any exchange like Coinbase, that exchange is legally bound to pay you back 1 USD.
but if you buy 1 Tether, bitfinex has no liability whatsoever to pay you 1 USD in return. that is in the legal agreement that you accepted (possibly without reading) when you started using Tether.

From Tether's terms:

The right to have Tether Tokens redeemed or issued is a contractual right personal to you.

They reserve the right to delay redemption in certain cases (like insolvency or inability to transfer funds) and they place certain requirements like KYC verification before you can redeem, but saying Tether has no liability to USDT holders is rather ridiculous. Bitstamp also reserves the right to delay withdrawals and place additional requirements on customers before processing them.

In practice, the nature of the risk is exactly the same. It's 3rd party custody risk. If Nejc Kodrič embezzles half of Bitstamp's fiat funds and the exchange ends up collapsing, Bitstamp's legal obligation to redeem USD balances doesn't mean much when the company itself is insolvent. This is exactly the same argument naysayers make about Tether.

they do not guarantee the price or its survival.

Of course they don't guarantee its price. It's a free market. All they can do is issue and redeem at 1:1, which generally maintains a peg.

If bad news about Tether getting a bank account frozen causes the USDT/USD market to dump to 0.85, Tether still promises to redeem at 1:1. Whether they actually can or whether there will be a delay in redemption is another story, but in the 6 years or so they've been in business, they've always come through. Other exchanges have certainly collapsed during that time, and legal obligations per terms of service haven't guaranteed depositors always get back 1:1.

[Harlot]

Following your numbers 7% of a 17$ billion traded volume is 1.19 billion dollars this amount affected because of tether would be really relevant in the market and might trigger FUD as a volume of more than a billion affected by the market can easily influence everything. Just imagine 500 million dollars worth of Bitcoin stolen in a crypto exchange this event can greatly affect the price even if it's not worth a billion due to the FUD it will also produce. Tether collapsing will have a greater effect compared to this one though as a lot of exchanges or majority of them will be affected is such thing happens.

[Febo]

Does tether collapsing matter anymore?  $1.2 billion volume is BTC/USDT compared to total BTC volume of $17 billion. In other words about 7% of the volume for bitcoin is tether.
We used to worry tether collapse was such a big deal, but the volume for tether seems to be a much bigger deal for tiny shitcoin that only trade for tether.

It never mattered. Tether collapse is same as if would one exchange collapse or one shitcoin sink. No one would care about it a week later.

[fabiorem]

I don't understand all the hate stablecoins get. When you hold and trade USD liabilities on a fiat exchange like Bitstamp, it's not all that different from holding and trading USD liabilities issued by Tether.

Its easy to understand. Its a behaviour called "statism": the idea that the State have absolute control over the individual.

People who hate tether are people who want to see bitcoin to fail. They make predictions of six digits while showing veiled support for central banks. They say to you to "hodl" bitcoin while they place bets with bitcoin contracts. They talk about "use cases", while they want Wall Street taking control of the market and "taming" the honey badger.

The money needs to come from somewhere, so if bitfinex wants to print more tethers to boost bitcoin's price, lets them do it. Governments do the same, and nobody complains about it.

[snipie]

Mt Gox collapse drove the price of bitcoin down from $1200 to $250,

it was down to $150 and it was not only because of Mt Gox. there were many reasons that caused that drop for starters the $1200 price in 2013 was a bubble similar to $20000 was a bubble in 2019 and $250 was a bubble before 2013 and $16 was a bubble in 2011 and $1 was a bubble before that. all of these cases ended with the same bubble burst and same huge drop in a rather long bear market.
there was also silkroad closure, panic sells, ASIC mining replacing GPU mining and putting a lot of hobby miners with a lot of bitcoin in their wallets out of a job, a shitton of FUD about how bitcoin is dead and is going down to $20, the start of the bitcoin civil war about scaling and ...

Good old days, I was aware of bitcoin at the end of this era and I remember people panic selling, the bullshit presumably end of bitcoin...
Although I am sceptical from most altcoins and stable coins but I don't think we will see any collapse in the short - middle term.

[exstasie]

The money needs to come from somewhere, so if bitfinex wants to print more tethers to boost bitcoin's price, lets them do it. Governments do the same, and nobody complains about it.

Yep, if Tether really is printing money, it benefits me by boosting BTC prices, so I agree. If anything Tether is a net positive.

I just don't get why so many people hate Tether so much. If Tether is insolvent, who cares? If Bitstamp is insolvent, who cares? We are Bitcoin users. That's all par for the course when it comes to trusted third parties. We should assume at all times they can't be trusted to honor their obligations. That's literally why Bitcoin exists.

[pooya87]

Its easy to understand. Its a behaviour called "statism": the idea that the State have absolute control over the individual.
People who hate tether are people who want to see bitcoin to fail.

you got it backwards.
people who truly hate tether are the real bitcoin believers and they hate tether because it is centralized and goes against everything bitcoin stands for. in fact all those who love tether and many other centralized altcoins so much while claiming their decentralization are the ones who suffer from "statism" so much. they simply replaced shady banks with a shady company.

[exstasie]

people who truly hate tether are the real bitcoin believers and they hate tether because it is centralized and goes against everything bitcoin stands for.

These things are completely orthogonal. Being a Bitcoin believer doesn't require one to uniformly hate altcoins and stablecoins. Tether is just another take on fiat money. Who cares?

There are lots of Bitcoin believers who are rather indifferent to Tether. In fact, there are plenty of anti-government types who appreciate the way Bitfinex and Tether defy governments and banking regulations. Furthermore, there are plenty of BTC bulls who are smart enough to realize that Tether is very bullish for BTC prices. They certainly don't mind.