Alot of resistance in the $520-$530 range

[windjc]

Alot of selling and no buying going on right now. But there is a lot of resistance in the the $520-$530 range.

We have the daily 200 SMA sitting at around $534.

We have the 61% fib retracement sitting around $520.

And we have several historical intermediate contact point of resistance sitting around $525-$530.

We are also working on our 7th consecutive daily red candle.

We are short term extremely oversold. I would be surprised if we don't get a bounce in this area.

[podyx]

lets get this rally started already

[MoreFun]

We are also working on our 7th consecutive daily red candle.

And we never had 7th red daily candles before (two times 6).

I still expect dump to $530.

[kooke]

Walls have a tendency of receding once they are reached. I don't think we're done dropping.

[MatTheCat]

Alot of selling and no buying going on right now. But there is a lot of resistance in the the $520-$530 range.

We have the daily 200 SMA sitting at around $534.

We have the 61% fib retracement sitting around $520.

And we have several historical intermediate contact point of resistance sitting around $525-$530.

We are also working on our 7th consecutive daily red candle.

We are short term extremely oversold. I would be surprised if we don't get a bounce in this area.

Due to Bitcoin's tendency to react to schoolboy TA principles, I suspect that you will be proven right. But a reversal proper it aint gonna be.

[windjc]

Alot of selling and no buying going on right now. But there is a lot of resistance in the the $520-$530 range.

We have the daily 200 SMA sitting at around $534.

We have the 61% fib retracement sitting around $520.

And we have several historical intermediate contact point of resistance sitting around $525-$530.

We are also working on our 7th consecutive daily red candle.

We are short term extremely oversold. I would be surprised if we don't get a bounce in this area.

Due to Bitcoin's tendency to react to schoolboy TA principles, I suspect that you will be proven right. But a reversal proper it aint gonna be.

How low do you realistically think we are going? $500? $400? $250? $100?

I suspect that the bulls will start putting up a real fight at around $530. The daily 300 SMA sits at around $470 and this has not been breached for more than 24 hours since 2011. 2011. Think about that.

Then, lets say that gets breached, then I think we will have a real dog fight down to $400. Same at $380.

Anything below $380 and I will be putting another $200k into the market myself. You think I'm the only one?

I know you are all happy go lucky with your bear calls. But I would not get to overconfident if I was you. There is a literal shit ton of fiat sitting on the sidelines on exchanges right now. There is more than $16 million on Bitfinex alone.

Not to mention, there are a ton of shorts.

So how low do you REALLY think we are going?

[damiano]

I think were in for a slow decline over next 4-6 weeks.

I am bearish till then.

edit:  I also expect a lot of sideways trading

[MAbtc]

How low do you realistically think we are going? $500? $400? $250? $100?

I suspect that the bulls will start putting up a real fight at around $530. The daily 300 SMA sits at around $470 and this has not been breached for more than 24 hours since 2011. 2011. Think about that.

Then, lets say that gets breached, then I think we will have a real dog fight down to $400. Same at $380.

Anything below $380 and I will be putting another $200k into the market myself. You think I'm the only one?

I know you are all happy go lucky with your bear calls. But I would not get to overconfident if I was you. There is a literal shit ton of fiat sitting on the sidelines on exchanges right now. There is more than $16 million on Bitfinex alone.

Not to mention, there are a ton of shorts.

So how low do you REALLY think we are going?

As I said in another thread, ~ 530 is a pretty key support level, so I would expect a nice bounce in the 520-540 range. Then again, I expected much more bounce on the 50% retrace to 555. I am amazed at how little buy pressure we're seeing at key supports. We've just been walking down the stairs here. I'd love to see signs of a trend reversal -- I really would. I'll take a bottom in the 520s. I'll take a bottom at $541. But we are back in an established down trend and the question is, will momentum pick up? In that case, I wouldn't count on long term MAs in this market during extreme volatility. There is just not enough price history here. Daily momentum (RSI, TSI) tells me that if this is going to play out like 2013, then we have lots of room to fall. Never mind 2011. Having said that, a break of 400 on a retest would surprise me. But I can't justify ruling out sub-380 at this point, either. Not at all.

Regarding shorts -- IIRC, BTC swaps still down a fair bit from the 640s (from 8.5k or so), and yet USD swaps have hardly changed. Still almost $16.5 million in USD swapped. BFX says "very bullish." There's a lot of people in pain right now. You think there is more pressure for shorts to cover?

[podyx]

if we go sub $380, shit im taking a fucking loan and move in heavy lol

[windjc]

How low do you realistically think we are going? $500? $400? $250? $100?

I suspect that the bulls will start putting up a real fight at around $530. The daily 300 SMA sits at around $470 and this has not been breached for more than 24 hours since 2011. 2011. Think about that.

Then, lets say that gets breached, then I think we will have a real dog fight down to $400. Same at $380.

Anything below $380 and I will be putting another $200k into the market myself. You think I'm the only one?

I know you are all happy go lucky with your bear calls. But I would not get to overconfident if I was you. There is a literal shit ton of fiat sitting on the sidelines on exchanges right now. There is more than $16 million on Bitfinex alone.

Not to mention, there are a ton of shorts.

So how low do you REALLY think we are going?

As I said in another thread, ~ 530 is a pretty key support level, so I would expect a nice bounce in the 520-540 range. Then again, I expected much more bounce on the 50% retrace to 555. I am amazed at how little buy pressure we're seeing at key supports. We've just been walking down the stairs here. I'd love to see signs of a trend reversal -- I really would. I'll take a bottom in the 520s. I'll take a bottom at $541. But we are back in an established down trend and the question is, will momentum pick up? In that case, I wouldn't count on long term MAs in this market during extreme volatility. There is just not enough price history here. Daily momentum (RSI, TSI) tells me that if this is going to play out like 2013, then we have lots of room to fall. Never mind 2011. Having said that, a break of 400 on a retest would surprise me. But I can't justify ruling out sub-380 at this point, either. Not at all.

Regarding shorts -- IIRC, BTC swaps still down a fair bit from the 640s (from 8.5k or so), and yet USD swaps have hardly changed. Still almost $16.5 million in USD swapped. BFX says "very bullish." There's a lot of people in pain right now. You think there is more pressure for shorts to cover?

I don't necessarily trust those swap numbers. Also, that is margin trading only. In an oversold market, a lot of people have sold their coins hoping to buy in lower.

However, I don't understand this statement exactly "I wouldn't count on long term MAs in this market during extreme volatility.  There is just not enough price history here."  First, historically these moving averages have been great indicators of bottoms. So there is historical consistency there. Do we need 10 years of data to make it valid? Second, on the final day of "capitulation" in July the market fell 21%. A couple of weeks ago when we tested $400 again, the market fell 23% and crossed the 300 SMA for a few hours.  So, in that way, I don't trust the MAs during "extreme volatility." However, we are "stair stepping" down as you say. We have 7 daily red candles and have fallen $75. That is not extreme volatility.

Are you suggesting not to trust the MAs if we crash in one day down to $350? If so, I agree. But do you REALLY see this happening. Is there any historical basis for you to predict this. I do not see one. A flash crash?

But, I'm not talking about a flash crash, I am talking about a bottom. I think the bottom is in at $400.

If it goes lower, it will be following the case from 2011. Which is the bears wet dream.

Like I said, I expect money to come in when the price is right. I just think some bears idea of when the price is right, is magical "to the moon" type thinking. And I am more than willing to put my dollars where my mouth is.

Also, in comparing the daily RSI from the two 2013 bubbles, the current RSI is trending right above the oversold line. It got overly inflated from the snapback from $400. But it doesn't actually have a lot of room to fall to reach the bottom July levels. In fact, I think it will reach there long before $400 is seen again.

So, what's the RSI case for going lower than $380? I do not see it if it is there.

[MatTheCat]

How low do you realistically think we are going? $500? $400? $250? $100?

I suspect that the bulls will start putting up a real fight at around $530. The daily 300 SMA sits at around $470 and this has not been breached for more than 24 hours since 2011. 2011. Think about that.

Then, lets say that gets breached, then I think we will have a real dog fight down to $400. Same at $380.

Anything below $380 and I will be putting another $200k into the market myself. You think I'm the only one?

I know you are all happy go lucky with your bear calls. But I would not get to overconfident if I was you. There is a literal shit ton of fiat sitting on the sidelines on exchanges right now. There is more than $16 million on Bitfinex alone.

Not to mention, there are a ton of shorts.

So how low do you REALLY think we are going?

How low do I think that Bitcoin could go? If the same level of apathy combined with downtrending continues, I would suggest that a sharp dip in an otherwise trending market down to somewhere in the $200 range would see that unique mix of despair and bullish opportunism amongst market participants that signifies a true bottom. All this, "if Bitcoin hits $380 then I am going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at it" sounds like 'Fighting Talk' to me. You can't fight the market.

The 'bulls' can come out in as much force as they like at any key support or fibonacci retracement level, the fact is that after the bulls have dived in and pushed up the price, more money must come into Bitcoin, otherwise it just goes right back down again, which is exactly what we have been seeing. For that to happen, some 'event' needs to happen that drives the price up otherwise Bitcoin needs to have shaken out all the impatient and/or price sensitive money, not to mention the stolen coins from the market and to trend in a long stagnant stable range for period of time long enough to convince the market that Bitcoin will really struggle to get much lower. Saving for some X-Factor upside event, Bitcoin needs to bore long term Bitcoin holders to death the same way that precious metals have done, and test the patience of those who have bought in a little too prematurely on the downslide. In Bitcoin's case, a drawn out stagnant down trend will actually help facilitate adoption of the currency for uses other than speculation, which of course is exactly what is needed if Bitcoin is indeed to thrive in the long run.

But for now, I have some buy-ins in $520 - $540 range. Will see how that goes but I for one will be very quick to sell at the first sign of weakness on any rebound, providing the case doesn't turn out that my buy-in's get penetrated right through some $20-$30 lower, and I am forced to sell on rebound at a brake even rate, or even at a loss.

[boumalo]

We have a lot of resistance around 530$ but if we break it we could lose an other 50$ +

I won't mind and I would just be able to buy more btc

This resistance exists partly because people think it exists

[MAbtc]

How low do you realistically think we are going? $500? $400? $250? $100?

I suspect that the bulls will start putting up a real fight at around $530. The daily 300 SMA sits at around $470 and this has not been breached for more than 24 hours since 2011. 2011. Think about that.

Then, lets say that gets breached, then I think we will have a real dog fight down to $400. Same at $380.

Anything below $380 and I will be putting another $200k into the market myself. You think I'm the only one?

I know you are all happy go lucky with your bear calls. But I would not get to overconfident if I was you. There is a literal shit ton of fiat sitting on the sidelines on exchanges right now. There is more than $16 million on Bitfinex alone.

Not to mention, there are a ton of shorts.

So how low do you REALLY think we are going?

As I said in another thread, ~ 530 is a pretty key support level, so I would expect a nice bounce in the 520-540 range. Then again, I expected much more bounce on the 50% retrace to 555. I am amazed at how little buy pressure we're seeing at key supports. We've just been walking down the stairs here. I'd love to see signs of a trend reversal -- I really would. I'll take a bottom in the 520s. I'll take a bottom at $541. But we are back in an established down trend and the question is, will momentum pick up? In that case, I wouldn't count on long term MAs in this market during extreme volatility. There is just not enough price history here. Daily momentum (RSI, TSI) tells me that if this is going to play out like 2013, then we have lots of room to fall. Never mind 2011. Having said that, a break of 400 on a retest would surprise me. But I can't justify ruling out sub-380 at this point, either. Not at all.

Regarding shorts -- IIRC, BTC swaps still down a fair bit from the 640s (from 8.5k or so), and yet USD swaps have hardly changed. Still almost $16.5 million in USD swapped. BFX says "very bullish." There's a lot of people in pain right now. You think there is more pressure for shorts to cover?

I don't necessarily trust those swap numbers. Also, that is margin trading only. In an oversold market, a lot of people have sold their coins hoping to buy in lower.

However, I don't understand this statement exactly "I wouldn't count on long term MAs in this market during extreme volatility.  There is just not enough price history here."  First, historically these moving averages have been great indicators of bottoms. So there is historical consistency there. Do we need 10 years of data to make it valid? Second, on the final day of "capitulation" in July the market fell 21%. A couple of weeks ago when we tested $400 again, the market fell 23% and crossed the 300 SMA for a few hours.  So, in that way, I don't trust the MAs during "extreme volatility." However, we are "stair stepping" down as you say. We have 7 daily red candles and have fallen $75. That is not extreme volatility.

Are you suggesting not to trust the MAs if we crash in one day down to $350? If so, I agree. But do you REALLY see this happening. Is there any historical basis for you to predict this. I do not see one. A flash crash?

But, I'm not talking about a flash crash, I am talking about a bottom. I think the bottom is in at $400.

If it goes lower, it will be following the case from 2011. Which is the bears wet dream.

Like I said, I expect money to come in when the price is right. I just think some bears idea of when the price is right, is magical "to the moon" type thinking. And I am more than willing to put my dollars where my mouth is.

Also, in comparing the daily RSI from the two 2013 bubbles, the current RSI is trending right above the oversold line. It got overly inflated from the snapback from $400. But it doesn't actually have a lot of room to fall to reach the bottom July levels. In fact, I think it will reach there long before $400 is seen again.

So, what's the RSI case for going lower than $380? I do not see it if it is there.

The blanket statement that we are oversold does not address broader sentiment. Sure, many have sold coins. Looking here and at TV, many traders have bought back expecting retail investors to follow. Many have leveraged long. I am not interested in these sweeping statements like "we are oversold, so the bottom is in." Stochastics on longer time frames say we should bounce, sure.

Yes, regarding long term MAs, there is not enough history. The sample size is laughable for these kind of movements. Frankly, I think bitcoin's extremely short history of massive gains and untested price levels skews how one should approach long term MAs. I observe them, they have predictive power, but I cannot rely on them. I just put more emphasis on other metrics. The historical basis for breaking an MA just isn't very important to me. You say that it is -- fine.  Agree to disagree. I have my methods and have done very well without such emphases. I am obviously not talking about extreme volatility in reference to stair stepping. I am talking about flash crashes / flash recoveries within a down trend.

When you say, "But, I'm not talking about a flash crash, I am talking about a bottom. I think the bottom is in at $400" ...wasn't the bottom at $400 a flash crash? No despair. Pure fear-based panic and flash recovery.

I don't care what anyone's wet dreams are. I am just trying to keep an open mind while I wait for signs of confirmation that the down trend is over. You expect money to enter when the price is right. You expect that at current or slightly lower levels. Some bears expect $400. Many expect much, much lower than that. So take your pick. I also don't care for the constant tendency on here to label some target as the consensus and say, obviously buyers will front run and so you will never see $xxx coins. Maybe that is true -- but then, what is the consensus target? It is much less clear than people around here like to claim, I think.

Regarding daily RSI, that we are hovering above oversold doesn't strengthen the bull case in comparison to the April collapse. In early July 2013 we were extremely oversold -- RSI under 12 and TSI at -60 (on standard inputs, anyway). Regarding "it will reach there long before $400 is seen again" I am not sure I can agree, and this largely depends on the scope of price action between now and then. It is worth noting, I think, that the post-April decline was clearly less protracted than post-November, and this is illustrated pretty clearly looking at RSI and TSI.



It can go either way. I agree with your original post, if that wasn't clear. I just have no interest in proclaiming that the bottom is in at this time, or at these levels.

[eiskalt]

520$-530$ is a horizontal resistance, which should not come into play again at this time of the post bubble burst.

One could assume a downfall to 100$-135$. For whatever reasons, the market was already there and those who want to buy cheap will wait for that price level.

If this plays out, bitcoin cannot recover
-broken previous ATH,
-broken the lower bollinger band in the weekly chart for the first time.

For the latter even 300$ would be sufficiant.

[TERA]

What is this "resistance"?

When it is buying, it is called "support", not "resistance". "resistance" is selling.

[eiskalt]

What is this "resistance"?

When it is buying, it is called "support", not "resistance". "resistance" is selling.

You are right, sry I am at 135$ already 

[RyNinDaCleM]

520$-530$ is a horizontal resistance, which should not come into play again at this time of the post bubble burst.

One could assume a downfall to 100$-135$. For whatever reasons, the market was already there and those who want to buy cheap will wait for that price level.

If this plays out, bitcoin cannot recover
-broken previous ATH,
-broken the lower bollinger band in the weekly chart for the first time.

For the latter even 300$ would be sufficiant.

If we break below the previous ATH, it just confirms the end of a cycle like the pic shows (this is not necessarily my top count, but it shows my point). Why must it spell the end for Bitcoin?

[TERA]

520$-530$ is a horizontal resistance, which should not come into play again at this time of the post bubble burst.

One could assume a downfall to 100$-135$. For whatever reasons, the market was already there and those who want to buy cheap will wait for that price level.

If this plays out, bitcoin cannot recover
-broken previous ATH,
-broken the lower bollinger band in the weekly chart for the first time.

For the latter even 300$ would be sufficiant.

If we break below the previous ATH, it just confirms the end of a cycle like the pic shows (this is not necessarily my top count, but it shows my point). Why must it spell the end for Bitcoin?

If the 1W EMAs break and it goes goes sideways/down for a year, speculators will feel like "it's the end of bitcoin" because it's the end of bitcoin for THEM and they'll probably be leaving but it's not necessarily the end of bitcoin itself and the price may end up restoring current levels in a year from now, and a brand new group of speculators will join in for the ride.



Here's a really simple view of why there is support at $540 right now. 1W ema is a historically strong support.  That's until there is a downcross - then bitcoin is a whole different ball game.

[eiskalt]

Breaking previous ATHs is a bearish sign. Bitcoin never did this before. If it happens, it will not stop to continue the downtrend.

Participants and those interested in the market will be turned off.

Bitcoin the protocol would still be there for a while, but it would be meaningless.

[RyNinDaCleM]

520$-530$ is a horizontal resistance, which should not come into play again at this time of the post bubble burst.

One could assume a downfall to 100$-135$. For whatever reasons, the market was already there and those who want to buy cheap will wait for that price level.

If this plays out, bitcoin cannot recover
-broken previous ATH,
-broken the lower bollinger band in the weekly chart for the first time.

For the latter even 300$ would be sufficiant.

If we break below the previous ATH, it just confirms the end of a cycle like the pic shows (this is not necessarily my top count, but it shows my point). Why must it spell the end for Bitcoin?

[img]

If the 1W EMAs break and it goes goes sideways/down for a year, speculators will feel like "it's the end of bitcoin" because it's the end of bitcoin for THEM and they'll probably be leaving but it's not necessarily the end of bitcoin itself and the price may end up restoring current levels in a year from now, and a brand new group of speculators will join in for the ride.

It's just all the binary talk around here. Bitcoin isn't old enough to have had a real bear market yet. 2011 was as close as it gets and most posters here currently, weren't here for that one. If this is indeed the supercycle wave-2 then this will have the potential to be a bear market that no one has seen in Bitcoin, but it doesn't mean it MUST die. Also, the talks that something catastrophic is the only way to see lows below 5/4/300... It doesn't need to be one or the other (alive or dead) is all I'm saying, and I agree with you that some will lose hope (which signals the real bottom...), leave, never to return and a new group will come in to ride the next roller coaster.