What are the chances of bitcoin taking another dive?

[kiddex]

 Hi there i am asking this because i took out a loan at Nexo against my bitcoin. They told me my collateral bitcoin would have to drop 40 percent before they would start selling my bitcoin if the LTV threshold was passed. For me that would be if bitcoin were to  drop to around 5900 in price. So my question what are the chances of bitcoin dropping back to below 5900 again? I know anything is possible like what happened in march but realistically at this stage and time, what are the chances of that happening and me losing all my bitcoin? Thanks

[GreatArkansas]

$5900 is really possible, especially what happened last March, $10,000 dump below $4000 in just span of hours, when the pandemic corona virus began to spread all over the country.
Just like that, almost 50% of it's price was dumped. So my expectation is maybe another issue that will cause bitcoin dump again, especially there are lot of panic sellers in Bitcoin.

[ranochigo]

The drop in March was unprecedented due to the Covid-19 situation. It was just following the market trend with the uncertainty of the situation around the world. I don't see Bitcoin having a huge drop in the near future, barring any ruling by governments that is not in favour for Bitcoin. Given the fact that the government's aren't really paying attention to Bitcoin nowadays, I don't see any new ruling that would jeopardize Bitcoin.

[Velkro]

$5900 is really possible

I think that too, but when or if is up to market.
Value of $ went down so much, that price of Bitcoin would need to go up a lot only by this.
Market is ultimate judge here tho, we will see.

[Kemarit]

Hi there i am asking this because i took out a loan at Nexo against my bitcoin. They told me my collateral bitcoin would have to drop 40 percent before they would start selling my bitcoin if the LTV threshold was passed. For me that would be if bitcoin were to  drop to around 5900 in price. So my question what are the chances of bitcoin dropping back to below 5900 again? I know anything is possible like what happened in march but realistically at this stage and time, what are the chances of that happening and me losing all my bitcoin? Thanks

Slim, unless there's a massive FUD that will really sow panic to the investors to liquidate and sold-off.

But so far the overall health of crypto market is very good and we're not seeing any negative news and as you can see we just breach $10,000 briefly, meaning confidence is high right now.

[btc_angela]

$5900 is really possible, especially what happened last March, $10,000 dump below $4000 in just span of hours, when the pandemic corona virus began to spread all over the country.
Just like that, almost 50% of it's price was dumped. So my expectation is maybe another issue that will cause bitcoin dump again, especially there are lot of panic sellers in Bitcoin.

But what will be issues that we can foreseen that will pull the price to -40%? Another pandemic? Top exchange getting hack? So I will go to say no, at this point, not expecting that we will see another massive dump for this year, pulling the price around $5k-$6k levels or another corona virus effect on the market.

[GreatArkansas]

$5900 is really possible, especially what happened last March, $10,000 dump below $4000 in just span of hours, when the pandemic corona virus began to spread all over the country.
(...)

But what will be issues that we can foreseen that will pull the price to -40%? Another pandemic? Top exchange getting hack? So I will go to say no, at this point, not expecting that we will see another massive dump for this year, pulling the price around $5k-$6k levels or another corona virus effect on the market.

This is also what we think before that huge dump in March 2020, which lot of people the coronavirus could be help or boost bitcoin price because people will start to stay at home and use Bitcoin for their transactions, but it still dumped, and I think it's already given since even stock markets also dumped.
Maybe second or more waves on this coronavirus? Or another pandemic? Well, there will be more incoming FUD.

[pooya87]

if you look at the history, a 40% drop has always been very rare. they basically only happen if there is a massive bubble or a very big negative news during drops or side-ways market. we have neither of these since bubble ended more than a year ago and price has been under bitcoin intrinsic value so it has been underpriced for a long time and also there is a massively strong buy support at $9k that is growing in strength the lower you go.

[Yogee]

Looking at the market now and how it has been the past few weeks, the chances of bitcoin going back to $5900 is slim. Maybe a drop to $8K but nobody knows what's going to happen next.
 

There is no reason at the moment which can bring the price such low. I do not think we will see $5900 very soon again unless a major economic crisis is there. So, you have nothing to worry about. Your collateral is not going to be sold.

While I agree that it will have to take another major economic crisis or another major FUD causing panic selling[country xx banning bitcoin or exchange xx was hacked], we shouldn't give assurance to others. kiddex or other newbies could take the "So, you have nothing to worry about. Your collateral is not going to be sold." statement as gospel truth and take out more loans.

[The Cryptovator]

I am not familiar with Nexo terms & conditions since I hadn't used it ever. You took loan means you were agreed with their lending terms & conditions. So if in case the price drop below 40% then they have the right to sell bitcoin if they want and I believe they will do it. Listen, we know that everything is possible in crypto, so bitcoin fall would happen at any time. But I can't see enough reason to drop now. The last drop happened due to global pandemic and panic. Day by day people learnings to live with pandemic and believe there will not suddenly fall again. But I will suggest that you should repay the lent amount as soon as possible when you have the opportunities.

[mk4]

Is it unlikely? Probably. Is it possible? VERY.

In the first place, I don't think taking such loans is a good idea, knowing how volatile the markets are. Such price drops of that magnitude ain't new. You'd know that if you took a few minutes to take a look at bitcoin's multi-year price chart.

Take a look at this alone, I could already see a few:

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

[uneng]

$5900 is really possible, especially what happened last March, $10,000 dump below $4000 in just span of hours, when the pandemic corona virus began to spread all over the country.
Just like that, almost 50% of it's price was dumped. So my expectation is maybe another issue that will cause bitcoin dump again, especially there are lot of panic sellers in Bitcoin.

But what will be issues that we can foreseen that will pull the price to -40%? Another pandemic? Top exchange getting hack? So I will go to say no, at this point, not expecting that we will see another massive dump for this year, pulling the price around $5k-$6k levels or another corona virus effect on the market.

Maybe another coronavirus mass contamination wave? Situations that could dump bitcoin can happen suddenly and we must be prepared for them.
The world is too crazy at this moment. There is a pandemic going on, governments giving free money to their citizens, productive sector stopped or working slower, purchasing power heavily decreasing... We are living a very delicate moment and to be very confident in investments like bitcoin might be a mistake.

I'm not saying to not invest in bitcoin, but to be aware that we are living hard times.

[amishmanish]

We have just had the halvening. Historically that leads to upticks. Then we are moving into that part of the year when the jumps in price happen. One worldwide worry has been that despite the bad employment situation, the markets seems to continue to surge. This gap between the wealth of richest and subsistence level income for salaried classes MAY lead to some form of social protests. Yet, world over, people don't really have the belly for protests at this time.

A drop to 5900 from ~9500 seems unlikely. Though, one has to ask, what kind of service are they giving if they will start liquidating the assets. As long as they have your BTC, It is with them, right? What is the meaning of providing a loan service that would depend on liquidating your collateral without even checking if you can repay back in time. How does that make sense? Is this the model that most such "loan" services are following??

[davis196]

We have just had the halvening. Historically that leads to upticks. Then we are moving into that part of the year when the jumps in price happen. One worldwide worry has been that despite the bad employment situation, the markets seems to continue to surge. This gap between the wealth of richest and subsistence level income for salaried classes MAY lead to some form of social protests. Yet, world over, people don't really have the belly for protests at this time.

A drop to 5900 from ~9500 seems unlikely. Though, one has to ask, what kind of service are they giving if they will start liquidating the assets. As long as they have your BTC, It is with them, right? What is the meaning of providing a loan service that would depend on liquidating your collateral without even checking if you can repay back in time. How does that make sense? Is this the model that most such "loan" services are following??

Yes,this is exactly the model of such loan services.If the collateral value drops under the amount of the loan,the "bank" liquidates the loan by selling the collateral.Loans on Bitcointalk follow the same rules.
I don't think that the lender(in this case Nexo) can really check if OP can repay his loan.
Anyway,this makes me wonder what's the point of sending your Bitcoins as a 140% collateral for a fiat loan.
This doesn't make much sense to me.I assume that OP is in big need for fiat money,but doesn't want to sell his BTC.
The chance of BTC price going back to 5.9K USD in 2020 is 50/50.You can't be sure about anything,when it comes to the price of Bitcoin.

[Assface16678]

Bitcoin market price what is the specific time it will drop the main answer is no one knows because the market is volatile and it depends on the investors when they pull out their funds and especially the whales those people who hold a lot of a large amount of money.

There is no reason at the moment which can bring the price such low. I do not think we will see $5900 very soon again unless a major economic crisis is there. So, you have nothing to worry about. Your collateral is not going to be sold.

Still, there is a chance that the market price of the bitcoin will fall down immediately like last time it happens from the start of the year of January 2020 the market price of the bitcoin shows a good market income and trying to reach the 10k dollar market mark and when it comes into the month of the match all the things fall down immediately and it is starting falling down right now from 9k to 7k and after a few weeks from 7k to 5k and on that same month the price of the coin reaches over 3.9k dollars which is the lowest price of the coin recorded.

[pleasantvik12]

Hi there i am asking this because i took out a loan at Nexo against my bitcoin. They told me my collateral bitcoin would have to drop 40 percent before they would start selling my bitcoin if the LTV threshold was passed. For me that would be if bitcoin were to  drop to around 5900 in price. So my question what are the chances of bitcoin dropping back to below 5900 again? I know anything is possible like what happened in march but realistically at this stage and time, what are the chances of that happening and me losing all my bitcoin? Thanks

The sudden drop in price of bitcoin in March was due to the outbreak. I really do not think such will happen now but again, anything is possible

[boyptc]

The chance is low but do not be confident, we're halfway on that price.

Think of that there's always the chance that it can go that low as we're not that too far from the price. But as much as possible, take back your bitcoins and pay your loan if you're already capable.

[franky1]

bitcoin is held up by alot of value.
such as the cost of mining makes the difference of if its profitable to mine, then people will mine to sell for profit
when its not profitable to mine people will buy coin instead of electric.
this becomes an equilibrium of base value

speculation sits ontop of this base value. take for instance the 2018 era of $20k price whilst the mining cost was below $4k that was just too much speculation to last this was alot of bubble above the value waterline

then after the $20k price drop. mining took the profit and upgraded hardware.. which caused underlying cost increases to ~$5.6k as they invested in more hardware,
this helped keep a healthy speculation 'foam' of $6-$10k that summer

then next gen tech came out making it cheap to mine at just $3k again. and so the $10k foam become a $6k bubble. and that collapsed the price down to the >$4k mark in that autumn

..
i say all this because these 'collateral loans' businesses do not take collateral at its current BTC price.. but at the underlying value line. true collateral value.
so i can see why they would only offer loans out at a $5.9k collateral level. it makes sense

..
and right now. btc base value water line is at ~$3.7k-$10k
the manufacturers only cost is electric (retail hardware sales profit cover hardware cost) so $3.7k
for the retail buyers of hardware and at efficient 4c/kw electric they have a cost of $10k

so although there is alot of the buy or mine gameplay keeping the value in the $9k range. there is a small chance that it can dip to $4k again
and this would only be a non problem when the hashrate vs mining cost electricity bill goes up
so hope for a increase in hashrate, and watch out for a large drop in hashrate
because
low hashrate=profitability=more reason to sell
high hashrate=costly=more reason to buy and not mine

then there is deeper math and psychology
imagine if 30% of mined coins is mined by those affording $4k cost. and they only need to sell half their stash to cover electric..
over all thats only a sell pressure of 15% of mined coins down to $4k
there are alot of miners that give up mining at $9k and instead just buy coins and that is the 70% buy pressure above $9k
the other 15% sell pressure is from those with costs between $4k- $9k (variant baseline above $4k)
but overall its like a 70%:30% equilibrium in favour of keeping the price where it is
and it would require either a low hashrate to change that equilibrium. or some big bad news that can poke at someones emotions to affect their investment plans.

so overall i dont consider it a big chance.. but a small chance.
and your overall safe at ~190exa hashrate so hope the hashrate approaches that line in the sand

[NurAzizahhh]

You take a loan means that you agree with their loan terms & conditions. So if if the price drops below 40% then they have the right to sell bitcoin if they want to Listen, we know that everything is possible in crypto, so the decline in bitcoin will happen anytime. But I can't see enough reason to go down now. do not suddenly fall just like that. there must be a cause. But I would suggest you have to pay back the loan amount as soon as possible when you have the opportunity

[Kelvinid]

Hi there i am asking this because i took out a loan at Nexo against my bitcoin. They told me my collateral bitcoin would have to drop 40 percent before they would start selling my bitcoin if the LTV threshold was passed. For me that would be if bitcoin were to  drop to around 5900 in price. So my question what are the chances of bitcoin dropping back to below 5900 again? I know anything is possible like what happened in march but realistically at this stage and time, what are the chances of that happening and me losing all my bitcoin? Thanks

TBH, we can't see anything of what really it happens in the coming days, though it all seems possible but can't assure that we gonna fall that price in a very specific time. In your case, you are probably be waiting for so long and that is a big loss for you by then. Why you agree with this? What if the price won't fall? Do they still keep your Bitcoin and keep waiting? Better not to have this loan if this will go like this. Really bad on your part...

We are moving above $10k, quite to see that it keeps moving high slowly, and this somehow will kept your Bitcoin in their hands coz it probably the price won't make another dump until the end of this year. And that is difficult next year as halving will most likely to have its impact.