Next Bitcoin Bull Run Will Be ‘Dramatically Different’

[Yamifoud]

Winklevoss Twin says,

"The next BTC bull run will be dramatically different. Today, there's exponentially more capital, human capital, infrastructure and high quality projects than in 2017. Not to mention the very real specter of inflation that all fiat regimes face going forward. Buckle up!"

The full article is here, https://cointelegraph.com/news/winklevoss-twin-next-bitcoin-bull-run-will-be-dramatically-different/amp

I don't think how it becomes realistic in a way that the market trends looks so different from what they say. 2017 is away far from what it happens today, not this year 2020 could we compared of and obviously the market show better that year than of today. We are flooded with shit/fake projects that it makes it harder to move forward because of the trust issues. And this they say good-quality project? maybe they are mistaken and of course not.

This Winklevoss Twin thinks alway positive, they are so optimistic to think that this year will be gratefull than the past Bullrun. But somehow, it is really hard to take that kind of optimism since we already know the current market situation we have today.

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[Slow death]

Winklevoss Twin says,

"The next BTC bull run will be dramatically different. Today, there's exponentially more capital, human capital, infrastructure and high quality projects than in 2017. Not to mention the very real specter of inflation that all fiat regimes face going forward. Buckle up!"

The full article is here, https://cointelegraph.com/news/winklevoss-twin-next-bitcoin-bull-run-will-be-dramatically-different/amp

quick question: how many bitcoins do these twins have? 

The price went up to $11,200 and we already have all analysts and celebrities from the cryptocurrency world coming out of their hole where they were hiding to make positive comments about bitcoin, but when the price was falling they made negative comments. my opinion is that this time I have to agree with him, because there were really many things that matured in this market, but unfortunately the question of price manipulation made by whales is still a big problem and nobody can guarantee that this big price increase that bitcoin had in the last days is not related to the pump that ETH is having

[el kaka22]

I am not entirely sure it would be dramatically different, I am suspecting something that along the lines of 2017 where it reached 20k and dropped, this time it could reach higher levels, maybe peak around at 30k levels but it would be basically the same and not too much change, when you say dramatically people think about 100k and more and I do not think that we will reach those levels since they are too much.

Obviously speaking the dramatic change could come from going down, last time we peaked at 20k the price went as low as 3.5k at one point, I hope that next time we broke our ATH, the price will not fall that much which would be the dramatic change if you accept it, but that doesn't mean that the upside is higher, it just means the lowside is higher or at least would be.

[Kelvinid]

I don't expect that having exponential capital and high-quality project this year ( and for the incoming) this year. I believe that these two brothers are acting deliberately different and see only the opposite of the real scenario that we have today. We are not looking into perfection and sees what it really happens in the coming days but actually we can feel what really happening now and it absolutely that 2020 is far different from what 2017 has.

I respect their speculation but neither agrees with them because, in the first place, I base on the real sentiment not my imagination.

[Finestream]

I wonder what kind of dramatic scenario we could see during bull run that would totally look different from 2017. There are a lot of speculation I've seen in this forum and some of them are just too exaggerated when giving a certain price for the next bull run.

They have a reason to exaggerate their prediction as bitcoin is always surprising.
Did we though that bitcoin will reach $20,000 back then? Nope, right>

This time, since the ATH was around $20,000, then it's good to expect a higher price, even $50,000 or $100,000 is possible base on the percentage of increase of bitcoin in the past, but of course, it might be too much for us but I believe a new ATH will make this market have a crazy run again.

We are all speculators in this market no matter what we say since no one could exactly tell what is the right price in the future. I believe 30k+ would be the closest possible next ATH next year. That's huge enough already to say for the next bull run and I am expecting a very congested market during that time that would resulted a fight for the miners fee.

That's a good prediction, but I will tell you, your prediction could also be exaggerated for others too. 

[gentlemand]

It can as well be different in the opposite way. There's more people but also more holders who bought Bitcoin in the longest bear market in history.

I hold my coins and I'm bullish but let's not forget that if all those people who bought for sub 10 thousand think of 20 -25 thousand as their target we may never go very far.

Buyers will be absolutely delighted to relieve long time holders of their coins who are looking for an exit for what they feel is a decent price. They've got to come from somewhere and there won't be very many people willing to let go of them if they've been here for this long.

We can talk about piddly bubbles when it is reaching saturation and anyone who ever will own it does own it. Until then everyone here should forget about their own expectations. They will be steamrollered by all those millions and billions who are not here yet. They're the ones who define the future, not us, and they outnumber us to a ludicrous extent.

People need to step outside themselves and try to conceive of the sheer scale of what's beyond the little bone box they live in. It's a whole lot bigger than many are capable of conceiving. Everyone should do their best to manage it as it could be the difference between blowing it or winning to face melting extent.

[shoreno]

Very much different because we have new concepts that are not around in 2017, and coins that are in the market are real projects there are no pump and dump coins anymore that are on top of the market, and investors are more discerning now more than ever  they only support projects that has potential for future development not to mention the many industries and institution around it now.

they need to create a new concept because old concepts were already given and owned by the other companies and its against the law if they copy it but pump and dump coins are here and they will not dissapear because some people and scammers can both benefit to it  .

 thats why not all investors support only good projects .  the difference that i feel so far is that bull run now is smaller compare to bull run on 2017

[pooya87]

Very much different because we have new concepts that are not around in 2017, and coins that are in the market are real projects there are no pump and dump coins anymore that are on top of the market, and investors are more discerning now more than ever  they only support projects that has potential for future development not to mention the many industries and institution around it now.

they need to create a new concept because old concepts were already given and owned by the other companies and its against the law if they copy it but pump and dump coins are here and they will not dissapear because some people and scammers can both benefit to it  .

 thats why not all investors support only good projects .  the difference that i feel so far is that bull run now is smaller compare to bull run on 2017

that is not at all true.
for starters every shitcoin that was created has been copying another concept and even coins that are less shitty have been copying bitcoin concept. and that is the case with every single altcoin out there. and there is no law against that because the "concept" is released under MIT license and there is no "company".

as for investors, they don't give a rat's ass about the project being good. all they have ever cared about was making profit, that is why we always see shitcoins with biggest pump and dumps are the most popular even if they were clear scams. evidence is the top 10 altcoins!

[thecodebear]

I don't think I'd say next bull run will be dramatically different than the last one. I mean sure there is more infrastructure, there might be more quality projects compared to the ICOs, there is the start of institutional investment, and so on, but you expect everything to improve from one bull run to the next. Just saying everything is bigger doesn't make it dramatically different, that is just what you would expect from the next bull run.

Instead of ICO boom it looks like we are at the start of DeFi boom. Bitcoin as always will power the whole market as the principle player, but ETH's projects will drive lots of new people in, and other random altcoins will rise just from people pumping. Pretty much the same as last cycle. Sure price might go to $100k or close to it, but that isn't dramatically different, because of course each successive bull run the price is gonna be a lot higher than the previous one.

So I don't really see what they mean by dramatically different. It's not like Bitcoin is gonna suddenly be used as currency by tens of millions of people and that drives the bull run. Bull run looks to be similar to the last just much larger as one would of course expect.

[exstasie]

I don't think I'd say next bull run will be dramatically different than the last one. I mean sure there is more infrastructure, there might be more quality projects compared to the ICOs, there is the start of institutional investment, and so on, but you expect everything to improve from one bull run to the next. Just saying everything is bigger doesn't make it dramatically different, that is just what you would expect from the next bull run.

Instead of ICO boom it looks like we are at the start of DeFi boom. Bitcoin as always will power the whole market as the principle player, but ETH's projects will drive lots of new people in, and other random altcoins will rise just from people pumping. Pretty much the same as last cycle. Sure price might go to $100k or close to it, but that isn't dramatically different, because of course each successive bull run the price is gonna be a lot higher than the previous one.

So I don't really see what they mean by dramatically different. It's not like Bitcoin is gonna suddenly be used as currency by tens of millions of people and that drives the bull run. Bull run looks to be similar to the last just much larger as one would of course expect.

I don't know exactly what the Winklevii have in mind, but I imagine it has to do with the idea of mass or exponential adoption.

For years, most of us have been thinking of these periodic bubbles as plots along some logarithmic curve, where the cycles get smaller and smaller in magnitude over time. Something like this:



Personally I don't think that model reflects what would happen in a full blown mass adoption and institutional adoption scenario. The chart above may in fact be compressed inside the "early adopter" phase of this chart:



In other words, the real exponential gains haven't even begun yet.

Now, it's not guaranteed to be the next cycle. In fact, it's not guaranteed at all. But that's why it could be dramatically different than previous bubbles.

[thecodebear]

I don't think I'd say next bull run will be dramatically different than the last one. I mean sure there is more infrastructure, there might be more quality projects compared to the ICOs, there is the start of institutional investment, and so on, but you expect everything to improve from one bull run to the next. Just saying everything is bigger doesn't make it dramatically different, that is just what you would expect from the next bull run.

Instead of ICO boom it looks like we are at the start of DeFi boom. Bitcoin as always will power the whole market as the principle player, but ETH's projects will drive lots of new people in, and other random altcoins will rise just from people pumping. Pretty much the same as last cycle. Sure price might go to $100k or close to it, but that isn't dramatically different, because of course each successive bull run the price is gonna be a lot higher than the previous one.

So I don't really see what they mean by dramatically different. It's not like Bitcoin is gonna suddenly be used as currency by tens of millions of people and that drives the bull run. Bull run looks to be similar to the last just much larger as one would of course expect.

I don't know exactly what the Winklevii have in mind, but I imagine it has to do with the idea of mass or exponential adoption.

For years, most of us have been thinking of these periodic bubbles as plots along some logarithmic curve, where the cycles get smaller and smaller in magnitude over time. Something like this:



Personally I don't think that model reflects what would happen in a full blown mass adoption and institutional adoption scenario. The chart above may in fact be compressed inside the "early adopter" phase of this chart:



In other words, the real exponential gains haven't even begun yet.

Now, it's not guaranteed to be the next cycle. In fact, it's not guaranteed at all. But that's why it could be dramatically different than previous bubbles.

Yeah that is probably what they mean. I don't see a reason to expect it though. I actually thought at the end of 2017 we were at that point (which is why I didn't sell around $20k haha) and I thought after a decent correction the price would just keep going up as we reached the backbone of that S-curve. But after I witnessed yet another normal full blown bitcoin crash I realized that will just keep happening unless we get to the point where use and spending of Bitcoin is way simpler than it was in 2017 or than it is now, since it's roughly the same still.

As long as the driving thesis behind owning bitcoin by the populace is to make money - whether from a store of value, speculative trading, economic hedge, etc point of view - we're going to continue to see these booms where the market gets way overbought, followed by busts in which a lot of the new people run away and don't return for a few years. If Bitcoin ever becomes a great spendable currency then we could see this full blown mass adoption you speak of, where people adopt bitcoin not mostly to make money but to bank themselves and send money anywhere cheaply and quickly. Quite frankly this requires scaling solutions that I don't yet see, much less volatile price, and more friendly tax rules (at least in some places like the US where you're expected to figure out capital gains taxes on every purchase you make with Bitcoin which is essentially impossible). Even just the basic holding of bitcoin in a cold wallet versus a hot wallet makes it hard and complicated to use. There can be solutions to all these roadblocks, but it might be a bunch of years until they all come to pass, if they ever do. In the meantime I expect the same normal boom/bust cycle to continue. Certainly there is nothing I see going on right now that suggests anything is going to be different about the market right now other than institutional investment dipping a foot into the market instead of a little toe, but that's not really different, it's just more money as happens in each successive cycle.

Though I guess a game changer, simply due to magnitude, would be if suddenly hedge funds and whatnot decided they need like 10% of their managed money in Bitcoin to hedge against QE and inflation and just horribly managed finances by essentially all nations - so basically if Wall St turned Bitcoin into a Gold in terms of valuing it as a major global reserve that of big monied interests. Something to hold long term, not just trade of invest in short term during the upside of a market cycle. The sheer magnitude of the amount of money that would flow in would be game changing, and this could be quicker than getting actual global adoption of bitcoin as a currency, but still I see nothing suggesting institutional investors are going to do anything more than dip one foot into the market during this cycle. Maybe 5 or 10 years from now a firm with the sort of dollar value Grayscale has right now in Bitcoin will be considered a little fish instead of THE major institutional player in the game, but right now we're a long way from that.


As a side note, and as antithetical as it is to the whole purpose of Bitcoin, I think the way we actually get to adoption of Bitcoin as a currency rather than a money making game by the populace is third party custody solutions. Unless something about bitcoin is changed so that hot wallets are safe and you don't need a whole complex security routine to secure your money, I just don't see the average person trying to figure that all out. This is why despite all the drop Coinbase social media campaigns and the no keys no bitcoin campaigns or whatever it is, the average person who wants to get Bitcoin exposure is just gonna go to Coinbase cuz it is easy and they don't have to worry about learning complicated details of how bitcoin is different than having money in a bank. But if custody companies and banks themselves have Venmo-like apps for bitcoin where they handle the security and the user doesn't even have to think about wallets and keys and addresses and whatnot, that's a huge win for usage. Meanwhile those that really want to take advantage of the self banking revolutionary features of Bitcoin can do that. Also third party custody means these companies can just occasionally pass bitcoin around or store the changes just in their database, thus greatly increasing the "usage" of bitcoin without filling up blocks, thus massively scaling bitcoin usage without having to wait for actual protocol scaling solutions that may or may not ever come. I think there is a future world where those who want Bitcoin for its security and features use it for that, while those that just want it to spend easily anywhere in the world while also getting the long term price appreciation out of it can also do that without ever having to worry about the details of bitcoin security. But until we get to this world, I don't see things being different this time as the Winkle-twins suggest. Bigger as always sure, but no different. I expect a big boom to high 5 digits, perhaps even briefly going over $100k, and then a standard year or so long crash back to i dunno like $20k or something - business as usual.

[exstasie]

Yeah that is probably what they mean. I don't see a reason to expect it though. I actually thought at the end of 2017 we were at that point (which is why I didn't sell around $20k haha) and I thought after a decent correction the price would just keep going up as we reached the backbone of that S-curve. But after I witnessed yet another normal full blown bitcoin crash I realized that will just keep happening unless we get to the point where use and spending of Bitcoin is way simpler than it was in 2017 or than it is now, since it's roughly the same still.

I think adoption is less about Bitcoin's fundamental improvements and more about people's changing perceptions about the value of money.

As long as the driving thesis behind owning bitcoin by the populace is to make money - whether from a store of value, speculative trading, economic hedge, etc point of view - we're going to continue to see these booms where the market gets way overbought, followed by busts in which a lot of the new people run away and don't return for a few years.

I definitely see no end in sight as far as volatility goes, and until mass adoption actually occurs, I see no end to these speculative market cycles either. However, I think it's important to note that Bitcoin's price is a direct reflection of adoption. So if that mass adoption scenario occurs, we should expect the resulting price increase to greatly surpass the magnitude of past cycles.

[pakhitheboss]

Considering how the crypto market is growing, the bull run of Bitcoin will not be as the same as 2017. Personally, I don't really see a bull run of Bitcoin like 2017. Looking at the Bitcoin market from 2018 to now, the bull run will be like a 10% increase in the previous market value of Bitcoin and the market might drop in few days after the rise.  I don't think there will be any dramatic different as stated by Winklevoss Twin in as much that there are more capital, infrastructure and better projects.  People have learnt to understand the bitcoin market. Due to that, the next bull run of  Bitcoin will not be significantly huge as before.

I agree too

Bitcoin Bull run will be completely different this time. Like 2017 it won't shoot to a new all time high straight away but this time it will go step by step. I accept it to reach till 25k by the end of this year or early next year.

[atjiat]

Considering how the crypto market is growing, the bull run of Bitcoin will not be as the same as 2017. Personally, I don't really see a bull run of Bitcoin like 2017. Looking at the Bitcoin market from 2018 to now, the bull run will be like a 10% increase in the previous market value of Bitcoin and the market might drop in few days after the rise.  I don't think there will be any dramatic different as stated by Winklevoss Twin in as much that there are more capital, infrastructure and better projects.  People have learnt to understand the bitcoin market. Due to that, the next bull run of  Bitcoin will not be significantly huge as before.

I agree too

Bitcoin Bull run will be completely different this time. Like 2017 it won't shoot to a new all time high straight away but this time it will go step by step. I accept it to reach till 25k by the end of this year or early next year.

In fact, in 2017, the rise in prices for cryptocurrency was due to completely different reasons and therefore the current period is very different from the past. Recently, the fact that cryptocurrency prices are more stable and at the same time are steadily rising has been very noticeable. And if you take into account last year's halving, then according to historical indicators, you need to expect at least a year before Bitcoin actively begins to rise in price after halving 2020, that is, somewhere in July 2021.

[AbuBhakar]

Considering how the crypto market is growing, the bull run of Bitcoin will not be as the same as 2017. Personally, I don't really see a bull run of Bitcoin like 2017. Looking at the Bitcoin market from 2018 to now, the bull run will be like a 10% increase in the previous market value of Bitcoin and the market might drop in few days after the rise.  I don't think there will be any dramatic different as stated by Winklevoss Twin in as much that there are more capital, infrastructure and better projects.  People have learnt to understand the bitcoin market. Due to that, the next bull run of  Bitcoin will not be significantly huge as before.

I agree too

Bitcoin Bull run will be completely different this time. Like 2017 it won't shoot to a new all time high straight away but this time it will go step by step. I accept it to reach till 25k by the end of this year or early next year.

It will be a baby steps, More ups means more down. Every breaking of resistance is a must if 15k uss will be able to reach before the end of September, there will be a possibility for more than that but if not reaching 15k will be already hard after this setback, but if there is a news to help breaking another miles then it can change the graph more but not like how the 2017 pump happen.

[DonQuijote]

The most important thing is the percentage.
there are more capital, human capital, infrastructure and high quality projects than in 2017, BUT, we need more money to take the same %profit, the amount to reach x20 of the last ATH is HUGE.
We will see profit, but not like the last bullrun

[smyslov]

It sure is three years and so many things have happened, so many projects come and go so many companies and institutions adopted Cryptocurrency and investors are more aware and educated, the landscape is very much different from what we had back 2017 so we expect the next bull run will be very much different from the one we last have, we could experience a more longer bull run.

[thecodebear]

Yeah that is probably what they mean. I don't see a reason to expect it though. I actually thought at the end of 2017 we were at that point (which is why I didn't sell around $20k haha) and I thought after a decent correction the price would just keep going up as we reached the backbone of that S-curve. But after I witnessed yet another normal full blown bitcoin crash I realized that will just keep happening unless we get to the point where use and spending of Bitcoin is way simpler than it was in 2017 or than it is now, since it's roughly the same still.

I think adoption is less about Bitcoin's fundamental improvements and more about people's changing perceptions about the value of money.

As long as the driving thesis behind owning bitcoin by the populace is to make money - whether from a store of value, speculative trading, economic hedge, etc point of view - we're going to continue to see these booms where the market gets way overbought, followed by busts in which a lot of the new people run away and don't return for a few years.

I definitely see no end in sight as far as volatility goes, and until mass adoption actually occurs, I see no end to these speculative market cycles either. However, I think it's important to note that Bitcoin's price is a direct reflection of adoption. So if that mass adoption scenario occurs, we should expect the resulting price increase to greatly surpass the magnitude of past cycles.

I think FOMO and panic outweigh people's changing perceptions about the value money. By which I just mean the speculative market will continue the boom/crash cycle so there won't just be some turning point where we hit the vertical part of the S-curve and Bitcoin goes from say $50k to $500k and stays there without crashing.

I just think we'll continue to see the same cycles and nothing will be dramatically different, in that every market cycle the bitcoin converts will grow a lot, and more big monied interests will join, but also every cycle most of the new people who bought in late in the bull run that led to the huge price movement will leave out of despair after they lose money on the crash. I also think long term store of value and speculative investment play will remain the main driving market forces, possibly forever, but at least until the market is so large (like perhaps around the market cap of Gold) that its volatility has gone way down and perhaps at that point it will be spent more instead of just to get rich off of, as volatility going down means getting rich is no longer possible but also spending is easier.

Anyway, yeah infrastructure is continuing to improve and there is actual Wall St infrastructure now and Bitcoin is now regularly talked about in finance circles and financial media, but I think all of that was just the natural growth for the point we are at and required to take the next step up from 4 digits being the norm to will into 5 digits being the norm. I don't think people's fundamental ideas on Bitcoin are going to change, but we're just gonna get the normal order of magnitude or so increase in the number of people who have some Bitcoin between say 2022 and 2018.

[target]

Yeah that is probably what they mean. I don't see a reason to expect it though. I actually thought at the end of 2017 we were at that point (which is why I didn't sell around $20k haha) and I thought after a decent correction the price would just keep going up as we reached the backbone of that S-curve. But after I witnessed yet another normal full blown bitcoin crash I realized that will just keep happening unless we get to the point where use and spending of Bitcoin is way simpler than it was in 2017 or than it is now, since it's roughly the same still.

I think adoption is less about Bitcoin's fundamental improvements and more about people's changing perceptions about the value of money.

As long as the driving thesis behind owning bitcoin by the populace is to make money - whether from a store of value, speculative trading, economic hedge, etc point of view - we're going to continue to see these booms where the market gets way overbought, followed by busts in which a lot of the new people run away and don't return for a few years.

I definitely see no end in sight as far as volatility goes, and until mass adoption actually occurs, I see no end to these speculative market cycles either. However, I think it's important to note that Bitcoin's price is a direct reflection of adoption. So if that mass adoption scenario occurs, we should expect the resulting price increase to greatly surpass the magnitude of past cycles.

I think FOMO and panic outweigh people's changing perceptions about the value money. By which I just mean the speculative market will continue the boom/crash cycle so there won't just be some turning point where we hit the vertical part of the S-curve and Bitcoin goes from say $50k to $500k and stays there without crashing.

I just think we'll continue to see the same cycles and nothing will be dramatically different, in that every market cycle the bitcoin converts will grow a lot, and more big monied interests will join, but also every cycle most of the new people who bought in late in the bull run that led to the huge price movement will leave out of despair after they lose money on the crash. I also think long term store of value and speculative investment play will remain the main driving market forces, possibly forever, but at least until the market is so large (like perhaps around the market cap of Gold) that its volatility has gone way down and perhaps at that point it will be spent more instead of just to get rich off of, as volatility going down means getting rich is no longer possible but also spending is easier.

Anyway, yeah infrastructure is continuing to improve and there is actual Wall St infrastructure now and Bitcoin is now regularly talked about in finance circles and financial media, but I think all of that was just the natural growth for the point we are at and required to take the next step up from 4 digits being the norm to will into 5 digits being the norm. I don't think people's fundamental ideas on Bitcoin are going to change, but we're just gonna get the normal order of magnitude or so increase in the number of people who have some Bitcoin between say 2022 and 2018.

The cycle will still continue until such time where BTC is going to be one of the rarest that bitcoin might not be the coins we get to be paid in bitcointalk marketing. So far the price still is low and its stil going tobe used as speculative investment that price correction will drives us wherever it goes.

Even if the price will hit 50K this time but after some time when its overbought, speculators like you will soon dump before everybody else does.

[Silberman]

Winklevoss Twin says,

"The next BTC bull run will be dramatically different. Today, there's exponentially more capital, human capital, infrastructure and high quality projects than in 2017. Not to mention the very real specter of inflation that all fiat regimes face going forward. Buckle up!"

The full article is here, https://cointelegraph.com/news/winklevoss-twin-next-bitcoin-bull-run-will-be-dramatically-different/amp

That is something I think as well, the next bull run is going to be world shattering, when bitcoin went from 1k to 20k that was important but it was still seen as a major bubble begin created by geeks, the next bull run is going to change fundamentally the way we understand bitcoin and this market in general, and with institutional investors getting in the market and pumping billions of dollars to it I believe 100k could be a kind of a low prediction about the new heights bitcoin will reach.