The Cycling Thread

[tyKiwanuka]

Sagan Top3 @4.40 (Stake)
Bonifazio tb Viviani @2.28 (Pinnacle)

Everything was set up perfectly for Sagan to finish Top3, but he was positioned rather bad for the sprint and then it looked like his chain came off - happens. Bonifazio finished 80sec ahead of Viviani in another group.

Three climbs tomorrow, two from 1 category and one HC, serious stuff, though i'm afraid most riders will be tired as hell after today and we won't see many attacks, i hope i'm wrong though.

Well. looks like a day for the attackers, but I am still expecting some action on that last climb from the GC guys. The descent could maybe trigger some guys as well, but not sure how technical that one is today.

Placed one bet today: A. Yates tb Alaphilippe (1.79)

I considered that one too, since I think it's maybe too hard for Ala today, although he improved a lot on these longer climbs. What put me off in the end, is that it's not mountain top finish and Ala can always come back on the desent with the skills he has. And in a little sprint you have to favour Ala then. But good luck anyway

[1715588673]

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[coinlocket$]

I've started to watch the Tour this year and it is not the same thing with COVID, too many tops are missing.

Also, how do you think they can even run in October in Italy for the Giro, it will probably heavy snowing in the high mountain.

I mean they find the snow in May near the summer what do you think they will find in October near the winter 

[babygun]

Placed one bet today: A. Yates tb Alaphilippe (1.79)

I considered that one too, since I think it's maybe too hard for Ala today, although he improved a lot on these longer climbs. What put me off in the end, is that it's not mountain top finish and Ala can always come back on the desent with the skills he has. And in a little sprint you have to favour Ala then. But good luck anyway

Won the bet, but wasn't so sure of it, so it was only a small stake.

Wasn't able to watch the race today, but Roglic has now the yellow jersey. I think chance is quite high that he will keep this until the end.
I was a bit surprised yesterday by the move of Dumoulin, too bad he is not in top shape. I am a fan of him after he won the the Giro D'Italia.

[tyKiwanuka]

Expecting a super exciting stage today:


https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2020/stage-12/today/profiles

The GC guys will take it easy today and we will see the winner coming from the attackers most likely. This will be ridden like a Classics and it looks tailor-made for Greg van Avermaet, who showed promising form in the last days.

Van Avermaet tb Alaphilippe @2.03 Pinnacle (you can get slightly lower odds at crypto books)

This stage is also tailor-made for Alaphilippe, but tomorrows stage will be on home soil for him, so I guess he will try to get into the group tomorrow and take it easy today. Top3 for GvA looks also good at around 4.50, but tb Ala is a bit safer I think.

[babygun]

Expecting a super exciting stage today:


https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2020/stage-12/today/profiles

The GC guys will take it easy today and we will see the winner coming from the attackers most likely. This will be ridden like a Classics and it looks tailor-made for Greg van Avermaet, who showed promising form in the last days.

Van Avermaet tb Alaphilippe @2.03 Pinnacle (you can get slightly lower odds at crypto books)

This stage is also tailor-made for Alaphilippe, but tomorrows stage will be on home soil for him, so I guess he will try to get into the group tomorrow and take it easy today. Top3 for GvA looks also good at around 4.50, but tb Ala is a bit safer I think.

I think to win this h2h, Van Avermaet needs to get into the group, which is not the case (at the moment). If both riders are in the peloton, it is a coin flip.

By the way, what do you think for the green jersey? I am thinking about placing a small bet on Sagan. Chances are small, but I think he will try his maximum to overcome Bennett.

[tyKiwanuka]

I think to win this h2h, Van Avermaet needs to get into the group, which is not the case (at the moment). If both riders are in the peloton, it is a coin flip.

Yes. I was pretty sure, that GvA would be among the attackers today, but nope. Looks like the peloton hasn't given up yet though, so lets see, this is a very long stage

By the way, what do you think for the green jersey? I am thinking about placing a small bet on Sagan. Chances are small, but I think he will try his maximum to overcome Bennett.

Bennett still has the Paris stage for full points and Stage 14&19, where we could maybe see a sprint. Question is, how successful Sagan will be with his tactics to collect the bonus sprint points by going into groups in the mountain(eous) stages ?

Stage 13: Good chance, bonus sprint comes after some climbs.
Stage 14: Early sprint
Stage 15: Early sprint
Stage 16: Early sprint
Stage 17: Early sprint
Stage 18: Early sprint
Stage 19: No big obstacles before sprint
Stage 20: ITT
Stage 21: Whole peloton will contest bonus sprint

When there is an early sprint, QuickStep won't allow Sagan to take it and chase a group of attackers, where he is in. I don't think Sagan will take the green jersey this year, there are not enough opportunities to get cheap points and catch up.

[babygun]

I think to win this h2h, Van Avermaet needs to get into the group, which is not the case (at the moment). If both riders are in the peloton, it is a coin flip.

Yes. I was pretty sure, that GvA would be among the attackers today, but nope. Looks like the peloton hasn't given up yet though, so lets see, this is a very long stage

By the way, what do you think for the green jersey? I am thinking about placing a small bet on Sagan. Chances are small, but I think he will try his maximum to overcome Bennett.

Bennett still has the Paris stage for full points and Stage 14&19, where we could maybe see a sprint. Question is, how successful Sagan will be with his tactics to collect the bonus sprint points by going into groups in the mountain(eous) stages ?

Stage 13: Good chance, bonus sprint comes after some climbs.
Stage 14: Early sprint
Stage 15: Early sprint
Stage 16: Early sprint
Stage 17: Early sprint
Stage 18: Early sprint
Stage 19: No big obstacles before sprint
Stage 20: ITT
Stage 21: Whole peloton will contest bonus sprint

When there is an early sprint, QuickStep won't allow Sagan to take it and chase a group of attackers, where he is in. I don't think Sagan will take the green jersey this year, there are not enough opportunities to get cheap points and catch up.

I think you are right, chances are small for Sagan to retake the green jersey, but in the stage of today, he stands a chance. I don't think that Bennett will survive until the end of this stage, especially if BORA will make some war. Odds for Sagan the green jersey is around 2.4, which is quite low to be honest.

Didn't find any good h2h's for this stage, but placed a small bet on top 3 for Van Aert (@2.6)

[tyKiwanuka]

I think you are right, chances are small for Sagan to retake the green jersey, but in the stage of today, he stands a chance.

I am definitely rooting for him, since I just adore this guy. From the very moment he joined the pro peloton, he was super exciting to watch and apart from hard/long mountain top finishes he can basically do it all, this is very rare. On top of that, he never had the huge team support other guys had and he still was more successfull than them. And he made me lots of money over the years

He revolutionized the way to win the green jersey and the stunt he did today for the bonus sprint is a proof of that. Didn't really pay off, but very creative

[morvillz7z]

15pts from intermediate sprint and 18pts from the final sprint, Bora managed to eliminate Bennett but Sagan missed on a lot of points in the end. They just didn't have enough people to help him in the final few km. Only 40ish pts behind but not many more opportunities like today for him left. If he takes the jersey, it will be the most close-fought one, even last year without winning a single stage (iirc) it was a lot easier. Let's see!


source:https://www.letour.fr/en/

Grand Colombier tomorrow, it's going to be epic!
Also tomorrow, 10 hrs of week1 NFL matches, our poker series, gm6 between Denver and LAC, where do i even begin, so packed! 

[tyKiwanuka]

Van Avermaet tb Alaphilippe @2.03 Pinnacle

Poor bet Though there were some hopes for it in the end, but it needed a mechanical problem for that^^


I played Landa tb Porte for today at around 1.70. I always thought that Porte is way overrated on these longer climbs. Tbf in the last years he often had some health issues which prevented him to show what he has still left or what he is capable of. Landa should like todays stage with the big diesel he is. As said before, Porte often finishes last in his group, so this is another option to win this bet.

Grand Colombier tomorrow, it's going to be epic!
Also tomorrow, 10 hrs of week1 NFL matches, our poker series, gm6 between Denver and LAC, where do i even begin, so packed!  

The schedule for sport fans is just brutal today. There is also the US Open final, lots of football in Germany/England/Spain, Formula1. Don't have enough screens/TV's for all that


Adding Uran tb Quintana for 2.0. Uran already beat him in the last two moutain stages and Quintana was involved in that crash lately, which caused Mollema/Bardet to abandon the race. Lets see, if he is 100% fit.

[morvillz7z]

Oh dear, Ineos hit rock bottom today, Bernal lost 7+ minutes  with zero chances to even make the top3 in Paris next Sunday.

Ineos getting beat like that, you don't see that very often, hell even the 40-year old Valverde finished just 24' seconds behind the winner Pogacar...

Tomorrow we have rest day covid tests, any team that gives 2 or more positive ones is out of the Tour.

[tyKiwanuka]

I played Landa tb Porte for today at around 1.70.
Adding Uran tb Quintana for 2.0.

Underestimated Porte here, great race by him. Uran easy (should have staked more, lol)

Ineos getting beat like that, you don't see that very often, (...)

Bernal looked really bad ! On the positive side of things, we will maybe see him going on the attack now to secure a stage win, if it was just a jour sans.

But Ineos is going down a bit as a whole. The death of Nicolas Portal surely has some impact, but also the team spirit has suffered a bit imo, with the big leaders not being present or not even in the team no more (Thomas, Kiryienka, Knees, Froome etc). They don't seem like a unit no more to me, it's a wild mix of very good riders. Jumbo is the new Sky/Ineos now

And I am sure that Doping is still very present in the peloton, maybe something changed there as well.

[babygun]

I played Landa tb Porte for today at around 1.70.
Adding Uran tb Quintana for 2.0.

Underestimated Porte here, great race by him. Uran easy (should have staked more, lol)

Ineos getting beat like that, you don't see that very often, (...)

Bernal looked really bad ! On the positive side of things, we will maybe see him going on the attack now to secure a stage win, if it was just a jour sans.

But Ineos is going down a bit as a whole. The death of Nicolas Portal surely has some impact, but also the team spirit has suffered a bit imo, with the big leaders not being present or not even in the team no more (Thomas, Kiryienka, Knees, Froome etc). They don't seem like a unit no more to me, it's a wild mix of very good riders. Jumbo is the new Sky/Ineos now

And I am sure that Doping is still very present in the peloton, maybe something changed there as well.

Surprising that Bernal was so bad! Only thing he can do now is, as you mention, is chasing stage wins, which will also be difficult.
I still think that Roglic has the best chances to win, but Pogacar can come close.

[morvillz7z]

Bernal lost additional 10+ minutes to Roglic today!

I'm just wondering if this was deliberate (as in the strategy move) from Ineos, so he can perhaps try to win @ Meribel tomorrow, or is he just that bad?
If he was at 8-9min and attack, i don't think Jumbo-Visma would've allowed him to go, but now that he is so many minutes behind everyone, he is no threat, nobody would care if makes an early attack, and Meribel, the final climb, is exactly what the Colombian like, not so steep but long climb - 20+km @7.8%

It will be a total disaster (as if it's not already) for Ineos if they don't even get 1 stage win, they tried with Carapaz today but Kämna was just better than him/everyone.

I almost never bet on cycling, but i will definietly check what odds is he given to win. I also expect to see Pogacar in action, he has try...

edit; went to check the odds for Bernal only to find that he is out of the tour, so yeah


https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1306152086472724485

[babygun]

If everything goes well than Roglic should win his first Tour de France. In the time trial on Saturday he is also normally better than Pogacar.
For the race of tomorrow, I placed a bet on Ewan top 3 @3.25. Normally this stage will be for the sprinters and Ewan is one of the fastest riders in the peloton so @3.25 is nice value!

[tyKiwanuka]

Normally this stage will be for the sprinters (...)

Normally, yes, but some things to consider:

Who is interested in a sprint royale ? QuickStep not, they will be happy if the group takes the big sprint points. Bora not, because Sagan couldn't catch up a lot of points then (will even lose some more points most likely). Same for Trentin/CCC. All other teams have not good enough sprinters, to put some guys at the front to chase the group, so they won't help. So that leaves all work to chase the group for Lotto and they only have 4 riders besides Ewan left Would be better for Lotto to put some rider themselves in the group (de Gendt) and then sit back and wait, if the groups get caught, where Ewan could then contest the sprint. But I don't think anyone will chase tomorrow, if Lotto has a rider in the group.

This is the last chance for a lot of riders and teams to win a stage, so expect a big group to try their luck with like 75% of the teams present there. The stage is relatively short and not easy control with quite some up and down, especially in the last 60km. All riders in the group will have a chance to win the stage, since although it's hilly, it's not too demanding, i.e. no team will say "ah, our guy is too weak, lets chase them down".

I think Sagan will try to get into the group, but QS won't allow of course. He will give up sooner or later and let the green jersey go and a Sagan-less group will determine the winner of this stage. If the group isn't too far away in the more hilly terrain, he could do some stunt though and go on the attack, maybe getting some help from Bora guys that managed to get in the attackers group earlier.

[famososMuertos]

In this part of the world, Latin American cycling is dominated by Colombians, or at least they still live off the fame of the golden years that have had great cyclists on the Tour de France such as the always remembered "Lucho" Herrera.

But Today Richard Carapaz is news in the region when he became the first Ecuadorian cyclist to be the leader of the mountain. But this unprecedented fact seems to lose away the relevance with arrival of the two runners at the finish line today, also inededita (!'?)

In reality the Ecuadorian cyclist has had a great Tour de France. And to think that him came to the team at the last minute.

Actually personally I do not know or remember something similar, and according to the narrators at least in a quick look at the past had not happened, but surely with a tour with so much history something similar happened.

Anyway, I have followed the tour filled with emotion as a spectator, but this result made "take a look" with the favorites to win the second most precious prize of the Tour de France as is the leader of the mountain.

I have read your post where you get bets on cycling, although my emotion in cycling disintegrates more like an avid spectator, than the emotion of betting, I think writing you I get the feeling that if I bet on a cyclist and the odds are not given To win, I would not mind ... in a betting for fun.

Anyway, thanks to your thread, Im  lively to write on the subject, in a career that no one can ignore, even for what the transmission in visual spectacle implies, peloton (the multi-colored caravan) and the beautiful landscapes that the Tour de France offers.

In that sense, although the photo of the two embracing cyclists takes or accompanies the headlines, I am left with this little moment crossing the stone road, moments before reaching the last points award awarded by the leadership of the mountain.

https://i.imgur.com/B6Wkg1E.gif
Source:ESPN
Official website of Tour de France 2020 / www.letour.fr

... "peloton" on the hunt...

https://i.imgur.com/cOZV6N1.gif
Source:ESPN
Official website of Tour de France 2020 / www.letour.fr

[morvillz7z]

The yellow jersey race is pretty much over, it's been over for at least two weeks now, Jumbo-Visma are just better than everyone else, so is Roglic.

Sagan has to settle with either 2nd or 3rd place for the green jersey, after winning 7 of the 8 previous editions, but not this year...

The polka dot jersey is still up for grabs, Pogacar is just two points behind Carapaz and with 10pts given at the final climb tomorrow at La Planche des Belles Filles, anything can happen.

Richie Porte has a chance to finish third, he is way better than Miguel Angel Lopez at individual time trial but can he make up for 1'40 deficit? If it was longer TT with no climbs, i would probably say yes, but the one that we have tomorrow, we are unlikely to see a change in top3.

[babygun]

Normally this stage will be for the sprinters (...)

Normally, yes, but some things to consider:

Who is interested in a sprint royale ? QuickStep not, they will be happy if the group takes the big sprint points. Bora not, because Sagan couldn't catch up a lot of points then (will even lose some more points most likely). Same for Trentin/CCC. All other teams have not good enough sprinters, to put some guys at the front to chase the group, so they won't help. So that leaves all work to chase the group for Lotto and they only have 4 riders besides Ewan left Would be better for Lotto to put some rider themselves in the group (de Gendt) and then sit back and wait, if the groups get caught, where Ewan could then contest the sprint. But I don't think anyone will chase tomorrow, if Lotto has a rider in the group.

This is the last chance for a lot of riders and teams to win a stage, so expect a big group to try their luck with like 75% of the teams present there. The stage is relatively short and not easy control with quite some up and down, especially in the last 60km. All riders in the group will have a chance to win the stage, since although it's hilly, it's not too demanding, i.e. no team will say "ah, our guy is too weak, lets chase them down".

I think Sagan will try to get into the group, but QS won't allow of course. He will give up sooner or later and let the green jersey go and a Sagan-less group will determine the winner of this stage. If the group isn't too far away in the more hilly terrain, he could do some stunt though and go on the attack, maybe getting some help from Bora guys that managed to get in the attackers group earlier.

Well you were right, but the scenario was different  . Nice race by the wan and nice win of Kragh Andersen.
Tomorrow the time trial, just saw a h2h of Van Aert vs Dumoulin @1.9. Given the form of Van Aert, I think he will be in the top 2 (before or after Roglic). Anyone else will place some bets?

I don't think that Porte will be able to finish 3rd given the course of the race tomorrow.

[Saint-loup]

If everything goes well than Roglic should win his first Tour de France. In the time trial on Saturday he is also normally better than Pogacar.
For the race of tomorrow, I placed a bet on Ewan top 3 @3.25. Normally this stage will be for the sprinters and Ewan is one of the fastest riders in the peloton so @3.25 is nice value!

Yes the competition is already dead since almost one week. Primoz will win the race in 2 days at Paris.
He only need to be a little bit careful and to not fall.