The Cycling Thread

[tyKiwanuka]

Source: https://www.uci.org/

Cycling was for a long time my favourite sport to watch and to bet on. I always adored the cyclists for their dedication, idealism and willingness to suffer. And cyclists are tough as nails - I always laugh at footballers lying on the pitch, screaming and doing Hollywood with minor injuries When there is some crash, the first thing these people do, is to look for their bike, because they want to keep going and not lose any time.


Source: https://www.pinterest.de/pin/569423946607544568/

Cycling is, to the surprise of a lot of people, a team sport in the end. Even the best rider is nothing without a team behind to provide support.

The season is underway again and there is a tight calendar:


Source: https://www.procyclingstats.com/races.php

The betting markets have changed a lot over the years and this is a very small market now, even for one of the biggest sport events worldwide every year, the Tour de France. Still there are some good bets to be found and I will post a pick here every now and then. The betting limits are rather small-ish, so this is nothing for highrollers, but you can work with a double digit yield, which compensates the lower stakes a bit.

Feel free to post your picks as well or discuss the races, good luck.

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[tyKiwanuka]

Tour de France, Stage 2:

Bardet tb Uran @1.751 4/10

Odds are from Pinnacle, you can get around 1.70 at crypto bookies. Uran crashed yesterday and fell on his shoulder, that was recently injured already. This is a tough stage and if you are missing some %, you will be in trouble. Bardet has better form right now and as frenchman, he will be super motivated to get a good result anyway. Uran will probably be happy with just finishing with the main favourites.

[tyKiwanuka]

Bardet tb Uran @1.751 4/10

Was a bit closer than expected, since both didn't contest the sprint. For Uran this was expected, but Bardet not trying to get a good placement, was a surprise to me; maybe nothing left in the tank. Got a bit lucky here, +3.00.


Source: https://www.letour.fr/de/klassements

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Tomorrows stage is something for the pure sprinters, so probably a snoozefest until the last kms. Never liked to get too involved with those, so most likely no bet(s) for tomorrow. Tuesday will see the first mountain top finish of this years edition and there should be some good bets, lets see.

The popularity of cycling and cycling betting has boomed in the UK in recent years thanks to the success of the likes of Chris Froome, Mark Cavendish and Sir Bradley Wiggins. With cycling betting, there are two main types of cycling to focus on: tour racing, which is more endurance, and track cycling, which is more of a sprint.

You spam a lot buddy But since this was a bit on topic, I won't delete it. Next time no mercy though^^

[2double0]

What's your favorite site by the way?
I cannot find these type of bets on my choice of sportsbetting websites and want your choice to create an account there and maybe bet on your tips. Not too familiar with cycling games but yeah, their dedication is priceless and their speed is unmatchable by people like us who have become lazy enough that we need a bike to go to a nearby shop and buy some stuff.

[tyKiwanuka]

What's your favorite site by the way?

For cycling this would be Pinnacle. Bet365 is the benchmark, but they have poor odds. The rest just copies what Bet365 puts up, it's a small market, where you can't stake a lot, unless you place the same bet in various bookmakers or multiple times like f.e. what Pinnacle allows you to do. For crypto bookies, Betcoin/Playbetr/Sportsbet have H2H/Stage winner/Top3, Nitrogen pretty sure has something, maybe FJ (didn't check).

Not too familiar with cycling games but yeah, their dedication is priceless and their speed is unmatchable by people like us who have become lazy enough that we need a bike to go to a nearby shop and buy some stuff.

Well, they have pretty good equipment^^ But yes, it's insane what they are doing day in day out. I think the record for going downhill in Tour de France is 121km/h.....on these tiny tyres with basically no protection but a helmet, which won't help a lot, if you crash at that speed. I'd rather have a smooth drive on my shitty bike to the next store instead and leave the rest for the pros, while I watch on TV

[morvillz7z]

Cycling fan here, following closely the three grand tours for more than 20 years now. I remember the first tour that i watched back in '98, Pantani winning, he was absolutely amazing, believe it or not i haven't missed a single edition of Tour de France since then. I love everything about cycling, the fans, the history, the riders, and their passion, the doping scandals if you will...and so much more.

This years' race is a little bit different, we don't have a prologue, the first week is usually given to sprinters to take on each other. Now we have a few hilly/mountain stages for a start. Most of the stages seem shorter, only one over 200km and we only get one time-trial, note, it's not the typical tt, it finishes with 6km climb at 8.5%. That's great news for Bernal i guess, not so much for Roglic and Dumoulin. Some of the major climbs are missing also, no Mont Ventoux, Tourmalet or Alpe d'Huez, i only glanced Grand Colombier being included, that would suck.

As for the teams and who i expect to win, it's really hard to say. Ineos (SKY) didn't dominate as they used to do but Bernal was solid and won last year. Their roster is pretty good even without Froome and Geraint Thomas. Jumbo–Visma (the killer wasps) have a lot of talent themselves, no Kruijswijk for them. It's gonna be a tight race between those two, but i trust Brailsford more, he is a genius, so i put my money on Bernal to win the Tour.

Stage 1 and 2, well, the start was crazy/hectic, i don't remember so many riders hitting the ground in one stage. I think a total 53, some multiple times. Hope Sivakov is well as he fell twice, Ineos will need him down the stretch. In places where it doesn't rain so much when it does roads get x10 more slippery. It was so bad Martin had to neutralize one of the descents which is kinda rare sight in cycling, especially in the first stage but given the circumstances it was understandable. Tomorrow's gonna be a national holiday in France, the French are in yellow, great win by Alaphilippe!

So yeah, nice thread @tyKiwanuka, my next posts gonna be shorter i promise!  

[swogerino]

I watch cycling occassionally on Tv and when I do I like it but I am not an avid fan of it.However this thread is good for the forum members as I am sure you will see that there are a lot of cycling fans here.Of course me and every one else is impressed by Marco Pantani which has survived different forms of cancers and is a living proof that cancer can be cured.

[tyKiwanuka]

my next posts gonna be shorter i promise!  

Nooooo, it's nice to have someone to talk to in here, so just keep em coming with as much text as you want

Cycling fan here, following closely the three grand tours for more than 20 years now. I remember the first tour that i watched back in '98, Pantani winning, he was absolutely amazing, believe it or not i haven't missed a single edition of Tour de France since then.

I started in '96 and got really seriously infected with the cycling virus in '97 when Ulle was the first german to win the TdF - and he remained the last one until today. The 3 GT's are surely the highlights for the majority, but my favourite race is Paris-Roubaix. Just a beauty to watch with all the chaos it creates. Will be end of October this year and I hope that it finally rains again after gazillions of dry editions in recent years.
But I love all races; the one-day-races, the one-week races, the GT's, the Worlds. And I like to bet on them all.

[jademaxsuy]

The popularity of cycling and cycling betting has boomed in the UK in recent years thanks to the success of the likes of Chris Froome, Mark Cavendish and Sir Bradley Wiggins. With cycling betting, there are two main types of cycling to focus on: tour racing, which is more endurance, and track cycling, which is more of a sprint.

I am not familiar with cycling events though here in our place especially on fiesta there are racing events. Yeah endurance and sprint is very common but I am also seeing extreme downhill race beating up with time and obstacles to pass. Pretty sure one of the best cycling events I have seen in my whole life.

Cycling is one of my favorite sports and since this is being open up here now I can probably follow and there plot schedule already that can be the reference but I need to search what TV network or channel or live play it could be seen.

[morvillz7z]

A few takeaways from today's Stage 4:

- no fireworks and early attacks, but it was to be expected, a short climb, only 7km with 6.7%, not enough for anything significant.
- no major changes in the standings either but Roglic has now 4 seconds on Pogacar and 10' on everyone else.
- Jumbo-Visma looked exceptionally strong, both van Aert and Sepp Kuss right there helping Roglic whereas everyone else was by themselves in the final few km.
- Dumoulin didn't look good, that's the impression that i got, maybe he didn't have the legs today, likely to only help Roglic in this year's race, i can't see him make the top 3, but maybe that's just me.
- Sagan will win the green jersey again, but not as dominant as we know him to be.

Stage 3 had one of the craziest finishes i've ever seen, Caleb Ewan catapults out of nowhere to win, he zig-zagged his way in the last 75m, man, Sam Bennett was like "what the hell just happened" in the end, he couldn't believe it. Nice win for Lotto Soudal, after losing Gilbert and Degenkolb in the first two stages, a well-needed win for the team. C.Ewan will win at least 2 more imo, he is crazy fast/explosive, probably the fastest man in the peloton right now.

A few images that i took from the final meters of the stage:



image source: eurosportplayer.com

[tyKiwanuka]

(...) Sam Bennett was like "what the hell just happened" (...)

Hehe, yes. But Bennett just went too early (not as dumb as Sagan though ) with all the headwind. And Ewan has very aerodynamic sprinting style anyway and dude is fast when he is on. But the sprinters field is pretty poor this year unfortunately. Normally you have 4-5 top sprinters in the Tour and some other good ones, but this year it's very thin.

- no fireworks and early attacks, but it was to be expected, a short climb, only 7km with 6.7%, not enough for anything significant.

Yep, the climb was also pretty steady, everyone still has fresh legs, so sprint from a bigger group was very likely.

- Sagan will win the green jersey again, but not as dominant as we know him to be.

He will just go in the groups again every day in the mountain stages and win it that way Maybe Trentin can challenge him a bit.

[target]

You have to be a fan and probably a cyclist yourself to be updated with whos' who. Just by reading the cyclist names mentioned I'm already making me outdated.
I googled some of them and it landed me to youtube video of the cyclist who celebrrated too early lol must be frustrating to have bet on them.

I wanna be part as I have been practicing riding my bike for months since the time of lockdown. Where do you bet for cycling events?

[pakhitheboss]

I used to watch tour de France until Lance Armstrong decided to blow up his cover. I had great respect for this guy and thought cycling was the only game left out of drugs until reality struck me.

Now I watch but not devoted to this game anymore. Thanks, @tyKiwanuka for creating this thread and the itinerary of 2020 tournament.

[babygun]

Thanks for the thread! I am a big cycling fan and place on a regular basis some bets.
Only bet, so far, I placed for the Tour De France is Alaphilippe to win the mountain jersey @5. For the yellow jersey Roglic is my topfavorite to win, he looks to be in prime condition and has a better team than Bernal.

[tyKiwanuka]

Small parlay for todays stage. The last climb is pretty easy, but the Col de la Lusette will give the riders some problems. Not sure, if it will be that easy to come back afterwards, if you are dropped there already.

Landa tb Porte (1.33)
Carapaz tb Kuss (1.56)
Parlay @2.07

Porte often finishes at the very back of his group; Landa isn't the most gifted sprinter there ever was, but at least he is always trying to finish in the first places of his group. Kuss will have to work a lot today and he is not looking at the GC anyway. Carapaz is only 0:41 down and would want to stay in contention. And for Ineos it's also important to have a backup plan, in case Bernal struggles.

[tyKiwanuka]

Landa tb Porte (1.33)
Carapaz tb Kuss (1.56)
Parlay @2.07

There wasn't a whole lot of value on Landa I guess, but he finished better than Porte, though both at the end of the group. Carapaz was easy.


For today:

Sagan Top3 @4.40 (Stake)
There is some wind expected in the final today, which could lead to echolons. Sagan is super strong in these situations, so he should be in the top group, where some sprinters might already have been dropped from. Even if not, Sagan can always finish Top3.

Bonifazio tb Viviani @2.28 (Pinnacle)
Viviani has some issue with his foot and with those expected winds, I don't see him staying in the front. If Bonifazio will be there in the end, is to be seen, but these are good odds against an not fully fit rider.

[babygun]

Landa tb Porte (1.33)
Carapaz tb Kuss (1.56)
Parlay @2.07

There wasn't a whole lot of value on Landa I guess, but he finished better than Porte, though both at the end of the group. Carapaz was easy.


For today:

Sagan Top3 @4.40 (Stake)
There is some wind expected in the final today, which could lead to echolons. Sagan is super strong in these situations, so he should be in the top group, where some sprinters might already have been dropped from. Even if not, Sagan can always finish Top3.

Bonifazio tb Viviani @2.28 (Pinnacle)
Viviani has some issue with his foot and with those expected winds, I don't see him staying in the front. If Bonifazio will be there in the end, is to be seen, but these are good odds against an not fully fit rider.

There is indeed value on Sagan to finish in the top 3, but I don't think this will be a peloton sprint. If it would be a sprint, I would have placed a bet on Van Aert to win, but he has already mentioned in several interviews that he will now focus fully on the team. So no bet for me today  .

[tyKiwanuka]

(...) but I don't think this will be a peloton sprint.

It's of course always possible, that the attackers will make it to finish, but for today I don't think so. Too many teams/sprinters still interested and the last 90kms are not really challenging (Kirsipuu already retired some years ago ). Quick Step will want to get that stage win for Bennett and they will surely be the main driving force, if it comes to echolons (they love doing that).

I think it will be reduced peloton sprint, if there is enough wind, maybe ~50 riders in first group, but lets see.

[morvillz7z]

A very interesting race today, i wasn't expecting anything to happen, i could see a relaxed ride with peloton sprint in the end given the profile of the stage and since tomorrow's stage 8 will be pretty tough on everybody, thought they would just coast to the finish line and preserve energy. But hey, Bora couldn't care less about the general standings and decided to do their own version of TTT  , getting the main group shredded to pieces from the start. Sagan in green, so mission accomplished, good job Bora!

There is some wind expected in the final today, which could lead to echolons.

Yup, the splits were a fact today, Pogacar, Porte, Landa, and a few others lost some valuable time.
What is van Aert taking though? lol, Second win in the last three stages, beating sprinters like its nothing, solid on in the climbs...damn.

Three climbs tomorrow, two from 1 category and one HC, serious stuff, though i'm afraid most riders will be tired as hell after today and we won't see many attacks, i hope i'm wrong though. Thomas De Gendt was testing waters today, i don't know if he has the legs this year but he is up to something, i could see him try to join one of the breakaway groups tomorrow and perhaps win.

[babygun]

A very interesting race today, i wasn't expecting anything to happen, i could see a relaxed ride with peloton sprint in the end given the profile of the stage and since tomorrow's stage 8 will be pretty tough on everybody, thought they would just coast to the finish line and preserve energy. But hey, Bora couldn't care less about the general standings and decided to do their own version of TTT  , getting the main group shredded to pieces from the start. Sagan in green, so mission accomplished, good job Bora!

There is some wind expected in the final today, which could lead to echolons.

Yup, the splits were a fact today, Pogacar, Porte, Landa, and a few others lost some valuable time.
What is van Aert taking though? lol, Second win in the last three stages, beating sprinters like its nothing, solid on in the climbs...damn.

Three climbs tomorrow, two from 1 category and one HC, serious stuff, though i'm afraid most riders will be tired as hell after today and we won't see many attacks, i hope i'm wrong though. Thomas De Gendt was testing waters today, i don't know if he has the legs this year but he is up to something, i could see him try to join one of the breakaway groups tomorrow and perhaps win.

What a race yesterday and a very nice move from Bora! Sagan in green and he will now probably keep it until Paris!
Too bad, I didn't take Van Aert to win  . I always thought that M. Van Der Poel was better than Van Aert, but given the recent victories of Van Aert, I am now thinking the inverse.

Hopefully we will see some a nice race today with some attaques of the favorites.
Placed one bet today: A. Yates tb Alaphilippe (1.79)

[tyKiwanuka]

Sagan Top3 @4.40 (Stake)
Bonifazio tb Viviani @2.28 (Pinnacle)

Everything was set up perfectly for Sagan to finish Top3, but he was positioned rather bad for the sprint and then it looked like his chain came off - happens. Bonifazio finished 80sec ahead of Viviani in another group.

Three climbs tomorrow, two from 1 category and one HC, serious stuff, though i'm afraid most riders will be tired as hell after today and we won't see many attacks, i hope i'm wrong though.

Well. looks like a day for the attackers, but I am still expecting some action on that last climb from the GC guys. The descent could maybe trigger some guys as well, but not sure how technical that one is today.

Placed one bet today: A. Yates tb Alaphilippe (1.79)

I considered that one too, since I think it's maybe too hard for Ala today, although he improved a lot on these longer climbs. What put me off in the end, is that it's not mountain top finish and Ala can always come back on the desent with the skills he has. And in a little sprint you have to favour Ala then. But good luck anyway

[coinlocket$]

I've started to watch the Tour this year and it is not the same thing with COVID, too many tops are missing.

Also, how do you think they can even run in October in Italy for the Giro, it will probably heavy snowing in the high mountain.

I mean they find the snow in May near the summer what do you think they will find in October near the winter 

[babygun]

Placed one bet today: A. Yates tb Alaphilippe (1.79)

I considered that one too, since I think it's maybe too hard for Ala today, although he improved a lot on these longer climbs. What put me off in the end, is that it's not mountain top finish and Ala can always come back on the desent with the skills he has. And in a little sprint you have to favour Ala then. But good luck anyway

Won the bet, but wasn't so sure of it, so it was only a small stake.

Wasn't able to watch the race today, but Roglic has now the yellow jersey. I think chance is quite high that he will keep this until the end.
I was a bit surprised yesterday by the move of Dumoulin, too bad he is not in top shape. I am a fan of him after he won the the Giro D'Italia.

[tyKiwanuka]

Expecting a super exciting stage today:


https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2020/stage-12/today/profiles

The GC guys will take it easy today and we will see the winner coming from the attackers most likely. This will be ridden like a Classics and it looks tailor-made for Greg van Avermaet, who showed promising form in the last days.

Van Avermaet tb Alaphilippe @2.03 Pinnacle (you can get slightly lower odds at crypto books)

This stage is also tailor-made for Alaphilippe, but tomorrows stage will be on home soil for him, so I guess he will try to get into the group tomorrow and take it easy today. Top3 for GvA looks also good at around 4.50, but tb Ala is a bit safer I think.

[babygun]

Expecting a super exciting stage today:


https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2020/stage-12/today/profiles

The GC guys will take it easy today and we will see the winner coming from the attackers most likely. This will be ridden like a Classics and it looks tailor-made for Greg van Avermaet, who showed promising form in the last days.

Van Avermaet tb Alaphilippe @2.03 Pinnacle (you can get slightly lower odds at crypto books)

This stage is also tailor-made for Alaphilippe, but tomorrows stage will be on home soil for him, so I guess he will try to get into the group tomorrow and take it easy today. Top3 for GvA looks also good at around 4.50, but tb Ala is a bit safer I think.

I think to win this h2h, Van Avermaet needs to get into the group, which is not the case (at the moment). If both riders are in the peloton, it is a coin flip.

By the way, what do you think for the green jersey? I am thinking about placing a small bet on Sagan. Chances are small, but I think he will try his maximum to overcome Bennett.

[tyKiwanuka]

I think to win this h2h, Van Avermaet needs to get into the group, which is not the case (at the moment). If both riders are in the peloton, it is a coin flip.

Yes. I was pretty sure, that GvA would be among the attackers today, but nope. Looks like the peloton hasn't given up yet though, so lets see, this is a very long stage

By the way, what do you think for the green jersey? I am thinking about placing a small bet on Sagan. Chances are small, but I think he will try his maximum to overcome Bennett.

Bennett still has the Paris stage for full points and Stage 14&19, where we could maybe see a sprint. Question is, how successful Sagan will be with his tactics to collect the bonus sprint points by going into groups in the mountain(eous) stages ?

Stage 13: Good chance, bonus sprint comes after some climbs.
Stage 14: Early sprint
Stage 15: Early sprint
Stage 16: Early sprint
Stage 17: Early sprint
Stage 18: Early sprint
Stage 19: No big obstacles before sprint
Stage 20: ITT
Stage 21: Whole peloton will contest bonus sprint

When there is an early sprint, QuickStep won't allow Sagan to take it and chase a group of attackers, where he is in. I don't think Sagan will take the green jersey this year, there are not enough opportunities to get cheap points and catch up.

[babygun]

I think to win this h2h, Van Avermaet needs to get into the group, which is not the case (at the moment). If both riders are in the peloton, it is a coin flip.

Yes. I was pretty sure, that GvA would be among the attackers today, but nope. Looks like the peloton hasn't given up yet though, so lets see, this is a very long stage

By the way, what do you think for the green jersey? I am thinking about placing a small bet on Sagan. Chances are small, but I think he will try his maximum to overcome Bennett.

Bennett still has the Paris stage for full points and Stage 14&19, where we could maybe see a sprint. Question is, how successful Sagan will be with his tactics to collect the bonus sprint points by going into groups in the mountain(eous) stages ?

Stage 13: Good chance, bonus sprint comes after some climbs.
Stage 14: Early sprint
Stage 15: Early sprint
Stage 16: Early sprint
Stage 17: Early sprint
Stage 18: Early sprint
Stage 19: No big obstacles before sprint
Stage 20: ITT
Stage 21: Whole peloton will contest bonus sprint

When there is an early sprint, QuickStep won't allow Sagan to take it and chase a group of attackers, where he is in. I don't think Sagan will take the green jersey this year, there are not enough opportunities to get cheap points and catch up.

I think you are right, chances are small for Sagan to retake the green jersey, but in the stage of today, he stands a chance. I don't think that Bennett will survive until the end of this stage, especially if BORA will make some war. Odds for Sagan the green jersey is around 2.4, which is quite low to be honest.

Didn't find any good h2h's for this stage, but placed a small bet on top 3 for Van Aert (@2.6)

[tyKiwanuka]

I think you are right, chances are small for Sagan to retake the green jersey, but in the stage of today, he stands a chance.

I am definitely rooting for him, since I just adore this guy. From the very moment he joined the pro peloton, he was super exciting to watch and apart from hard/long mountain top finishes he can basically do it all, this is very rare. On top of that, he never had the huge team support other guys had and he still was more successfull than them. And he made me lots of money over the years

He revolutionized the way to win the green jersey and the stunt he did today for the bonus sprint is a proof of that. Didn't really pay off, but very creative

[morvillz7z]

15pts from intermediate sprint and 18pts from the final sprint, Bora managed to eliminate Bennett but Sagan missed on a lot of points in the end. They just didn't have enough people to help him in the final few km. Only 40ish pts behind but not many more opportunities like today for him left. If he takes the jersey, it will be the most close-fought one, even last year without winning a single stage (iirc) it was a lot easier. Let's see!


source:https://www.letour.fr/en/

Grand Colombier tomorrow, it's going to be epic!
Also tomorrow, 10 hrs of week1 NFL matches, our poker series, gm6 between Denver and LAC, where do i even begin, so packed! 

[tyKiwanuka]

Van Avermaet tb Alaphilippe @2.03 Pinnacle

Poor bet Though there were some hopes for it in the end, but it needed a mechanical problem for that^^


I played Landa tb Porte for today at around 1.70. I always thought that Porte is way overrated on these longer climbs. Tbf in the last years he often had some health issues which prevented him to show what he has still left or what he is capable of. Landa should like todays stage with the big diesel he is. As said before, Porte often finishes last in his group, so this is another option to win this bet.

Grand Colombier tomorrow, it's going to be epic!
Also tomorrow, 10 hrs of week1 NFL matches, our poker series, gm6 between Denver and LAC, where do i even begin, so packed!  

The schedule for sport fans is just brutal today. There is also the US Open final, lots of football in Germany/England/Spain, Formula1. Don't have enough screens/TV's for all that


Adding Uran tb Quintana for 2.0. Uran already beat him in the last two moutain stages and Quintana was involved in that crash lately, which caused Mollema/Bardet to abandon the race. Lets see, if he is 100% fit.

[morvillz7z]

Oh dear, Ineos hit rock bottom today, Bernal lost 7+ minutes  with zero chances to even make the top3 in Paris next Sunday.

Ineos getting beat like that, you don't see that very often, hell even the 40-year old Valverde finished just 24' seconds behind the winner Pogacar...

Tomorrow we have rest day covid tests, any team that gives 2 or more positive ones is out of the Tour.

[tyKiwanuka]

I played Landa tb Porte for today at around 1.70.
Adding Uran tb Quintana for 2.0.

Underestimated Porte here, great race by him. Uran easy (should have staked more, lol)

Ineos getting beat like that, you don't see that very often, (...)

Bernal looked really bad ! On the positive side of things, we will maybe see him going on the attack now to secure a stage win, if it was just a jour sans.

But Ineos is going down a bit as a whole. The death of Nicolas Portal surely has some impact, but also the team spirit has suffered a bit imo, with the big leaders not being present or not even in the team no more (Thomas, Kiryienka, Knees, Froome etc). They don't seem like a unit no more to me, it's a wild mix of very good riders. Jumbo is the new Sky/Ineos now

And I am sure that Doping is still very present in the peloton, maybe something changed there as well.

[babygun]

I played Landa tb Porte for today at around 1.70.
Adding Uran tb Quintana for 2.0.

Underestimated Porte here, great race by him. Uran easy (should have staked more, lol)

Ineos getting beat like that, you don't see that very often, (...)

Bernal looked really bad ! On the positive side of things, we will maybe see him going on the attack now to secure a stage win, if it was just a jour sans.

But Ineos is going down a bit as a whole. The death of Nicolas Portal surely has some impact, but also the team spirit has suffered a bit imo, with the big leaders not being present or not even in the team no more (Thomas, Kiryienka, Knees, Froome etc). They don't seem like a unit no more to me, it's a wild mix of very good riders. Jumbo is the new Sky/Ineos now

And I am sure that Doping is still very present in the peloton, maybe something changed there as well.

Surprising that Bernal was so bad! Only thing he can do now is, as you mention, is chasing stage wins, which will also be difficult.
I still think that Roglic has the best chances to win, but Pogacar can come close.

[morvillz7z]

Bernal lost additional 10+ minutes to Roglic today!

I'm just wondering if this was deliberate (as in the strategy move) from Ineos, so he can perhaps try to win @ Meribel tomorrow, or is he just that bad?
If he was at 8-9min and attack, i don't think Jumbo-Visma would've allowed him to go, but now that he is so many minutes behind everyone, he is no threat, nobody would care if makes an early attack, and Meribel, the final climb, is exactly what the Colombian like, not so steep but long climb - 20+km @7.8%

It will be a total disaster (as if it's not already) for Ineos if they don't even get 1 stage win, they tried with Carapaz today but Kämna was just better than him/everyone.

I almost never bet on cycling, but i will definietly check what odds is he given to win. I also expect to see Pogacar in action, he has try...

edit; went to check the odds for Bernal only to find that he is out of the tour, so yeah


https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1306152086472724485

[babygun]

If everything goes well than Roglic should win his first Tour de France. In the time trial on Saturday he is also normally better than Pogacar.
For the race of tomorrow, I placed a bet on Ewan top 3 @3.25. Normally this stage will be for the sprinters and Ewan is one of the fastest riders in the peloton so @3.25 is nice value!

[tyKiwanuka]

Normally this stage will be for the sprinters (...)

Normally, yes, but some things to consider:

Who is interested in a sprint royale ? QuickStep not, they will be happy if the group takes the big sprint points. Bora not, because Sagan couldn't catch up a lot of points then (will even lose some more points most likely). Same for Trentin/CCC. All other teams have not good enough sprinters, to put some guys at the front to chase the group, so they won't help. So that leaves all work to chase the group for Lotto and they only have 4 riders besides Ewan left Would be better for Lotto to put some rider themselves in the group (de Gendt) and then sit back and wait, if the groups get caught, where Ewan could then contest the sprint. But I don't think anyone will chase tomorrow, if Lotto has a rider in the group.

This is the last chance for a lot of riders and teams to win a stage, so expect a big group to try their luck with like 75% of the teams present there. The stage is relatively short and not easy control with quite some up and down, especially in the last 60km. All riders in the group will have a chance to win the stage, since although it's hilly, it's not too demanding, i.e. no team will say "ah, our guy is too weak, lets chase them down".

I think Sagan will try to get into the group, but QS won't allow of course. He will give up sooner or later and let the green jersey go and a Sagan-less group will determine the winner of this stage. If the group isn't too far away in the more hilly terrain, he could do some stunt though and go on the attack, maybe getting some help from Bora guys that managed to get in the attackers group earlier.

[famososMuertos]

In this part of the world, Latin American cycling is dominated by Colombians, or at least they still live off the fame of the golden years that have had great cyclists on the Tour de France such as the always remembered "Lucho" Herrera.

But Today Richard Carapaz is news in the region when he became the first Ecuadorian cyclist to be the leader of the mountain. But this unprecedented fact seems to lose away the relevance with arrival of the two runners at the finish line today, also inededita (!'?)

In reality the Ecuadorian cyclist has had a great Tour de France. And to think that him came to the team at the last minute.

Actually personally I do not know or remember something similar, and according to the narrators at least in a quick look at the past had not happened, but surely with a tour with so much history something similar happened.

Anyway, I have followed the tour filled with emotion as a spectator, but this result made "take a look" with the favorites to win the second most precious prize of the Tour de France as is the leader of the mountain.

I have read your post where you get bets on cycling, although my emotion in cycling disintegrates more like an avid spectator, than the emotion of betting, I think writing you I get the feeling that if I bet on a cyclist and the odds are not given To win, I would not mind ... in a betting for fun.

Anyway, thanks to your thread, Im  lively to write on the subject, in a career that no one can ignore, even for what the transmission in visual spectacle implies, peloton (the multi-colored caravan) and the beautiful landscapes that the Tour de France offers.

In that sense, although the photo of the two embracing cyclists takes or accompanies the headlines, I am left with this little moment crossing the stone road, moments before reaching the last points award awarded by the leadership of the mountain.

https://i.imgur.com/B6Wkg1E.gif
Source:ESPN
Official website of Tour de France 2020 / www.letour.fr

... "peloton" on the hunt...

https://i.imgur.com/cOZV6N1.gif
Source:ESPN
Official website of Tour de France 2020 / www.letour.fr

[morvillz7z]

The yellow jersey race is pretty much over, it's been over for at least two weeks now, Jumbo-Visma are just better than everyone else, so is Roglic.

Sagan has to settle with either 2nd or 3rd place for the green jersey, after winning 7 of the 8 previous editions, but not this year...

The polka dot jersey is still up for grabs, Pogacar is just two points behind Carapaz and with 10pts given at the final climb tomorrow at La Planche des Belles Filles, anything can happen.

Richie Porte has a chance to finish third, he is way better than Miguel Angel Lopez at individual time trial but can he make up for 1'40 deficit? If it was longer TT with no climbs, i would probably say yes, but the one that we have tomorrow, we are unlikely to see a change in top3.

[babygun]

Normally this stage will be for the sprinters (...)

Normally, yes, but some things to consider:

Who is interested in a sprint royale ? QuickStep not, they will be happy if the group takes the big sprint points. Bora not, because Sagan couldn't catch up a lot of points then (will even lose some more points most likely). Same for Trentin/CCC. All other teams have not good enough sprinters, to put some guys at the front to chase the group, so they won't help. So that leaves all work to chase the group for Lotto and they only have 4 riders besides Ewan left Would be better for Lotto to put some rider themselves in the group (de Gendt) and then sit back and wait, if the groups get caught, where Ewan could then contest the sprint. But I don't think anyone will chase tomorrow, if Lotto has a rider in the group.

This is the last chance for a lot of riders and teams to win a stage, so expect a big group to try their luck with like 75% of the teams present there. The stage is relatively short and not easy control with quite some up and down, especially in the last 60km. All riders in the group will have a chance to win the stage, since although it's hilly, it's not too demanding, i.e. no team will say "ah, our guy is too weak, lets chase them down".

I think Sagan will try to get into the group, but QS won't allow of course. He will give up sooner or later and let the green jersey go and a Sagan-less group will determine the winner of this stage. If the group isn't too far away in the more hilly terrain, he could do some stunt though and go on the attack, maybe getting some help from Bora guys that managed to get in the attackers group earlier.

Well you were right, but the scenario was different  . Nice race by the wan and nice win of Kragh Andersen.
Tomorrow the time trial, just saw a h2h of Van Aert vs Dumoulin @1.9. Given the form of Van Aert, I think he will be in the top 2 (before or after Roglic). Anyone else will place some bets?

I don't think that Porte will be able to finish 3rd given the course of the race tomorrow.

[Saint-loup]

If everything goes well than Roglic should win his first Tour de France. In the time trial on Saturday he is also normally better than Pogacar.
For the race of tomorrow, I placed a bet on Ewan top 3 @3.25. Normally this stage will be for the sprinters and Ewan is one of the fastest riders in the peloton so @3.25 is nice value!

Yes the competition is already dead since almost one week. Primoz will win the race in 2 days at Paris.
He only need to be a little bit careful and to not fall.

[tyKiwanuka]

I always like to bet on ITT's, since you can follow your bets so easily. And ITT's in general are exciting to watch, also from an aesthetic point of view; a good TTer is just a beauty to watch.

Today we will have an ITT with a (long) mountain top finish, which is very rare in cycling, so there is some uncertainty in the markets, although we got a pretty clear picture about the riders and what they are capable of atm, since we could watch them on a daily basis in the last 3 weeks.

Oliveira tb Schachmann @1.83 7/10
Schachmann is a good TTer, but he broke his collarbone just before the TdF and he is not in top form. Oliveira is often invisible in the peloton on normal stages - one of so many unsung heroes. But when an ITT is scheduled, that is his time to shine. He did very well on a similar course in the World Championships 2017 in Bergen and I expect him to do very good today - a day where he can ride for himself and doesn't have to take care of his captains.

Kragh Andersen tb De Gendt @2.37 3/10
Normally I don't like to bet on a rider, who just had a huge win the other day. But Kragh said he will go full throttle and his form is amazing at the moment. TdG was a bit disappointing during the Tour, his form just isn't there. He can be an exceptional TTer, but today is maybe a bit too hard for him anyway.

[babygun]

I always like to bet on ITT's, since you can follow your bets so easily. And ITT's in general are exciting to watch, also from an aesthetic point of view; a good TTer is just a beauty to watch.

Today we will have an ITT with a (long) mountain top finish, which is very rare in cycling, so there is some uncertainty in the markets, although we got a pretty clear picture about the riders and what they are capable of atm, since we could watch them on a daily basis in the last 3 weeks.

Oliveira tb Schachmann @1.83 7/10
Schachmann is a good TTer, but he broke his collarbone just before the TdF and he is not in top form. Oliveira is often invisible in the peloton on normal stages - one of so many unsung heroes. But when an ITT is scheduled, that is his time to shine. He did very well on a similar course in the World Championships 2017 in Bergen and I expect him to do very good today - a day where he can ride for himself and doesn't have to take care of his captains.

Kragh Andersen tb De Gendt @2.37 3/10
Normally I don't like to bet on a rider, who just had a huge win the other day. But Kragh said he will go full throttle and his form is amazing at the moment. TdG was a bit disappointing during the Tour, his form just isn't there. He can be an exceptional TTer, but today is maybe a bit too hard for him anyway.

Oliveira before Schachmann is a good bet, placed this bet also!
I don't like to bet against De Gendt, he hasn't really done anything this year in the TDF, but he can always surprise and even finish in the top 3 today.

[tyKiwanuka]

Yes the competition is already dead since almost one week. Primoz will win the race in 2 days at Paris.
He only need to be a little bit careful and to not fall.

What a TT from Pogacar, dear lord, this was so impressive But Roglic was a bit off today as well. Still this unbelievable and I never thought this could happen, just like anyone else in here.

Porte also with a super strong race today. These mountain(eous) TT's often produce some surprise results.

Oliveira tb Schachmann @1.83 7/10
Kragh Andersen tb De Gendt @2.37 3/10

Schachmann did a very good TT, but Oliveira super disappointing, thought he would Top10 here. At least Kragh did his job, although it was close, only 12sec faster than TdG.

[morvillz7z]

What just happened?  

I swear this was the best TT i've seen recently, maybe ever, so much drama for the tour and stage win, top3, polka dot, absolutely insane.
One bad day and you lose everything, after you and your team have completely dominated throughout these three weeks.
Congrats to the young Slovenian, he did it! He will be the first rider since Merckx to win the yellow jersey, polka dot and the jersey for under 25 in the same tour/year.
Porte also had a great day and made the podium, i'm really happy for him!

look at W. Van Aert and Dumoulin's faces: https://i.ibb.co/17RHcjH/dfzhdhf.jpg (image source: https://www.eurosportplayer.com/)

hehe that gotta hurt...

So I think Roglic with his team will try to make something today even if it's almost hopeless.

That's not how it works, the final stage is always a parade, there will be only champagne toasts and pictures taken between the riders, and of course a Champs-Élysées sprint. Jumbo-Visma and Roglic will be chilling in the main group, licking their wounds...
 

[Saint-loup]

Yes the competition is already dead since almost one week. Primoz will win the race in 2 days at Paris.
He only need to be a little bit careful and to not fall.

What a TT from Pogacar, dear lord, this was so impressive But Roglic was a bit off today as well. Still this unbelievable and I never thought this could happen, just like anyone else in here.

Porte also with a super strong race today. These mountain(eous) TT's often produce some surprise results.

Oliveira tb Schachmann @1.83 7/10
Kragh Andersen tb De Gendt @2.37 3/10

Schachmann did a very good TT, but Oliveira super disappointing, thought he would Top10 here. At least Kragh did his job, although it was close, only 12sec faster than TdG.

Yes it's an incredible twist. But Pogacar hasn't a strong team, unlike Roglic. So I think Roglic with his team will try to make something today even if it's almost hopeless.

[tyKiwanuka]

Yes it's an incredible twist. But Pogacar hasn't a strong team, unlike Roglic. So I think Roglic with his team will try to make something today even if it's almost hopeless.

No, that is something that is not "allowed" in the TdF - you don't attack the yellow jersey on the Paris stage Maybe if it's <10sec it would be ok with the peloton, but with 59sec Pogacar has basically 21 teams at his disposal today, if Jumbo tries something. And his team is weak for the mountain stages, but on a flat stage like today it's still ok, although they lost 2 guys. Pogacar can only not win the TdF this year, if he crashes and dnf's, but this is very unlikely.

Jumbo just rode a tactically shitty race in the last days, where you had the impression Pogacar actually belongs to the team as well. If your opponent has no team support in the mountains, you have to be a bit smarter to tire him and/or make him work.

[Cnut237]

It's been a weird Tour this year, with the Covid disruption and the uncertainty at the normally ultra-professional Ineos machine. I don't think we expected Bernal to crack in the way that he did. Of course if Thomas and Froome had been there and in top condition, the story could have been very different. I don't know if it was overconfidence based on years of domination, and Ineos just thought they could send any old team out and still destroy the opposition... but obviously that was not what happened this year. Perhaps Bernal wasn't able to cope with being the sole focus of the team, and this combined with the fact that their team was weaker than usual led to the failure. Either way, with Froome leaving this year feels like it's a bit of a reset for Ineos. Perhaps they could have won with a stronger team, perhaps not, but it does seem like the dominant force may be crumbling a bit.

[Saint-loup]

Yes it's an incredible twist. But Pogacar hasn't a strong team, unlike Roglic. So I think Roglic with his team will try to make something today even if it's almost hopeless.

No, that is something that is not "allowed" in the TdF - you don't attack the yellow jersey on the Paris stage

If Roglic doesn't try to do anything today, it will be an insult toward the competition and the spectators(and bettors). He will act like a loser. Shame on him.  

[Peanutswar]

Wow, there are a lot of members too right here are loved cycling too. I'm from in to the country who is only few people are supporting the use the cycling and I'm being one of the people who is just wanna try to ride on the Tour de France or just watching the game, it gives a different hype to my self because those are the competition of different members who has a different capability to win the game. I'm planning soon try to come into another country but right now I need to earn more money and wait for the covid will gone because some of the countries forbidden the transportation to avoid spreading the covid.

I only have right now a mountain bike because I love to see falls and mountain, also I have a road bike but I use this in few times because only few of my friends are available.

[aesma]

What a crazy TT ! Of course now people are talking about doping... But I thought you could quite see that aside from physical form, technique, strength, that both riders have, psychology played a role. Pogacar was very motivated, and once he knew he was making time, he was just on another planet, that will probably remain the TT of his life.

On the other hand Roglic lost composure and smelt defeat.

Yes it's an incredible twist. But Pogacar hasn't a strong team, unlike Roglic. So I think Roglic with his team will try to make something today even if it's almost hopeless.

No, that is something that is not "allowed" in the TdF - you don't attack the yellow jersey on the Paris stage

If Roglic doesn't try to do anything today, it will be an insult toward the competition and the spectators(and bettors). He will act like a loser. Shame on him. 

So are you losing a lot of money if Roglic doesn't win ?

I think the last stage should be like any other, but it isn't so, and hasn't been for a long time. Just before his loss Roglic was saying in the newspapers that he wanted to be more known and liked by the French public, well, I don't think breaking convention would do that.

If he was 99% sure to win the Tour by attacking, then OK, but the stage is flat, it's bound to end in a sprint, and thus there is no way to make back the time. He had weeks to build a bigger time buffer, he should have done it.

[Saint-loup]

So are you losing a lot of money if Roglic doesn't win ?

LOL   you take me for a crying baby?
No I didn't bet anything on him.

I think the last stage should be like any other, but it isn't so, and hasn't been for a long time. Just before his loss Roglic was saying in the newspapers that he wanted to be more known and liked by the French public, well, I don't think breaking convention would do that.

If he was 99% sure to win the Tour by attacking, then OK, but the stage is flat, it's bound to end in a sprint, and thus there is no way to make back the time. He had weeks to build a bigger time buffer, he should have done it.

It just shows that this final stage in Paris is useless and should be changed. Maybe a longer distance could be more interesting or another town.

[tyKiwanuka]

It just shows that this final stage in Paris is useless and should be changed. Maybe a longer distance could be more interesting or another town.

I "hate" this stage as well and find it super uninteresting. But it's a tradtition to have it neutralized until the riders enter/see Paris to have some celebrations, drink some champagne on their bikes, talk to opponents and all those things. They have this final stage since 1990 and though it's boring, it gives some incentive for the sprinters to keep going and not leaving the Tour early - thats part of it why the organizers stick with it.

In 1989 was the last time when this was not sprint and they had a TT back then which featured the drama between Greg LeMond and Laurent Fignon. I would love to see the 21st stage being a TT in Paris again; just imagine yesterdays TT would have been the final stage.....amazing ending. But won't happen in the near future and will stay a stage with a sprint royale on the Champs-Élysées.

[babygun]

It was an interesting Tour De France this year with a surprising ending! I thought that Roglic would even win some time against Pogacar in the TT, but guess I was wrong  .
Pogacar deserved the win, especially as his team was not able to really support him.

[so98nn]

As of now I never thought about gambling on the cycling competitions since I find it very difficult to predict the racing results. It sucks to see the long marathon of cycling and you barely understand whose running forward and backward. Lolz. 

I have recently started with the cycling fever and it is all out of the fear of covid to be honest! You may ask what the heck is that? Honestly I had little time for exercise and to boost the immunity an exercise workout is mandatory on daily basis. This led me to research best possible way to workout and here I am, cycling! Never had much interest in it, but since the time I started doing it early in the morning I was so amused with the energy that it drives through our body.

I tried betting on the bet365 and william hills but my poor judgment about the cyclist never gave me good results so always pulled off.

Never though I will see whole thread on bitcointalk.

I may not be talking relevant to the Tours and competitions you guys talking about, but thought to express myself.

[Cnut237]

I never thought about gambling on the cycling competitions since I find it very difficult to predict the racing results.

Team sports are probably more reliable than individual sports, because you spread the risk of errors. If one player in a football team makes an error, it can certainly have a negative effect, but not so much as if a cyclist makes an error. The risk is spread. And the problem of individual errors becomes more extreme with how dangerous the sport is - if a runner trips up, they can get back on their feet and try to rejoin the pack... but if a cyclist crashes, there's a reasonable chance that they are out of the race entirely. If we add in the inherent uncertainty in cycling, things like mass pile-ups, the person in front of you crashes or does something stupid and you pile into them... or even just the chaos of racing over wet ground or cobbles... one tiny error at high speed can mean the end of your chances... and this isn't the case in a lot of other sports.

[tyKiwanuka]

I never thought about gambling on the cycling competitions since I find it very difficult to predict the racing results.

I wouldn't take this as an obstacle, but as an opportunity Because if it's difficult, not a lot of people can do it and you can create an edge by putting in the work.
I don't think Cycling is that hard to predict - or not harder than any other sports - and by following the races, you will gain good knowledge about the different riders and their strenghts and weaknesses very fast. By searching for extra information and developing some gut feeling, you can then make money with betting on Cycling. But it's very time consuming and not everyone has this time.

~snip~

Yes, thats a problem with individual sports in short-term, but not if you think longterm, because everything evens out then. Over the course of thousands of bets, you will lose the same amount of bets due to your rider crashing as you will win bets this way. Unless you are a really unlucky person (which everyone always thinks he is )


As a good tradition, we also have the first Doping investigation of this years Tour with Arkea-Samsic. Some doping utensils and meds were found in the team hotel. Dayer Quintana is in the centre of this investigation apart from some team staff. And if Dayer is in the mix, you can't help but think that Nairo is involved as well and it might explain his poor performance at this years TdF, i.e. that they had to stop doing it at some point during the race.

But anyway, I still think that 95% of the riders are doped and it's not relevant for betting purposes in the end. I just hate when people/media talk about a clean peloton and everyone (including the pros) is surprised and outraged, when something comes to light. It's just so obvious......

[babygun]

I never thought about gambling on the cycling competitions since I find it very difficult to predict the racing results.

I wouldn't take this as an obstacle, but as an opportunity Because if it's difficult, not a lot of people can do it and you can create an edge by putting in the work.
I don't think Cycling is that hard to predict - or not harder than any other sports - and by following the races, you will gain good knowledge about the different riders and their strenghts and weaknesses very fast. By searching for extra information and developing some gut feeling, you can then make money with betting on Cycling. But it's very time consuming and not everyone has this time.

~snip~

Yes, thats a problem with individual sports in short-term, but not if you think longterm, because everything evens out then. Over the course of thousands of bets, you will lose the same amount of bets due to your rider crashing as you will win bets this way. Unless you are a really unlucky person (which everyone always thinks he is )


As a good tradition, we also have the first Doping investigation of this years Tour with Arkea-Samsic. Some doping utensils and meds were found in the team hotel. Dayer Quintana is in the centre of this investigation apart from some team staff. And if Dayer is in the mix, you can't help but think that Nairo is involved as well and it might explain his poor performance at this years TdF, i.e. that they had to stop doing it at some point during the race.

But anyway, I still think that 95% of the riders are doped and it's not relevant for betting purposes in the end. I just hate when people/media talk about a clean peloton and everyone (including the pros) is surprised and outraged, when something comes to light. It's just so obvious......

You can call me naive, but I still think that the peloton nowadays is a lot cleaner then a couple of years ago. You don't really see crazy things anymore (remember Ricardo Ricco  ).
But probably in the next couple of years they will find that some riders didn't ride clean (Quintana, Froome, ... )?

[aesma]

What is funny/sad is that French media (generalist media, not cycling media) was complaining about the performance of French riders, surely the others must be doping and the French are dumb for being clean (basically the subtext of the articles), after the TT this doubled down...then a French team is being investigated for doping !

[famososMuertos]

Wow, there are a lot of members too right here are loved cycling too. I'm from in to the country who is only few people are supporting the use the cycling and I'm being one of the people who is just wanna try to ride on the Tour de France or just watching the game, it gives a different hype to my self because those are the competition of different members who has a different capability to win the game. I'm planning soon try to come into another country but right now I need to earn more money and wait for the covid will gone because some of the countries forbidden the transportation to avoid spreading the covid.

I only have right now a mountain bike because I love to see falls and mountain, also I have a road bike but I use this in few times because only few of my friends are available.

I think that you to like competitive cycling off road, although some sports you don't necessarily have to practice to follow them.

It's kind of confusing to read you and I don't know where you're trying to go with your point in relation to the tour de france. Anyway, I can tell you that the Tour de France is the more important test of cycling,  that allows fans and even those who are not; they should enjoy watching a race every time you can on the tour.

If you do not understand me the excitement caused by the Tour de France even in those who do not follow it throughout the season as shown in the OP, it is something similar to the effect that each soccer World Cup causes in those who find out that soccer exists every 4 years    Although for some the "Champion League" will always be more important. So the wow would be for those who call themselves a sports lover and you ask him about the Tour de France and they say 'how? when'? a bit exaggerated, but it is the emotion.

In any case, on topic, a shame the information in development about Quintana ... although I do not say it because he is guilty / innocent but that the subject itself is complicated.

[perla]

I am very sorry for that slovenian who has ridden on cop the entire tour, and then throws everything away in one stage. but it was entertaining. I think it's a shame that the very last stage doesn't play any significant role in the tour. Actually, the winner of the tour is already known on the penultimate day. Relieves a lot of tension.

[Cnut237]

a shame the information in development about Quintana ... although I do not say it because he is guilty / innocent but that the subject itself is complicated.

Yes, it is complicated. the biggest shame is the 'guilty until proven innocent' mentality that is common in cycling - although this is of course understandable given the history within the sport.

I am very sorry for that slovenian who has ridden on cop the entire tour, and then throws everything away in one stage.

I'm actually a big fan of the individual time trial within the TdF. It is a level playing field that removes the advantage of having a strong team around you. The one thing I'm not keen on is having the time trial right at the end. I think you need a few real testing GC mountain stages after the TT to make it more interesting. Wouldn't it have been better this year to have a big mountain stage straight after the TT and watch Roglic and team desperately trying to overhaul the deficit?

[babygun]

Today it is the WK time trial in Italy. The preparation for the riders who also participated at the TDF (Van Aert, Dumoulin) will be less good than the others (Ganna, Campenaerts, Dennis).
Anybody is placing some bets on this championship?
I am thinking about placing some bets for the top 3: Van Aert @2.25 and Campenaerts @3

[morvillz7z]

Today it is the WK time trial in Italy.

I couldn't watch anything today, just 10min, around Bodnar's start, i guess it was pretty fun watching them race/finish on Imola?!

I am thinking about placing some bets for the top 3: Van Aert @2.25

Congrats if you took Van Aert for top3, this dude is something else, with basically no time to rest after the Tour.

Ineos latest additions for 2021 season: Richie Porte, Dani Martinez, Laurens de Plus, and Tom Pidcock. Pretty stacked up team, i think they signed Adam Yates back in August too, so yeah...good luck everyone else. 
https://www.eurosport.com/cycling/team-ineos-sign-tom-pidcock-richie-porte-dani-martinez-and-laurens-de-plus_sto7904003/story.shtml

[bitbunnny]

It was an interesting Tour De France this year with a surprising ending! I thought that Roglic would even win some time against Pogacar in the TT, but guess I was wrong  .
Pogacar deserved the win, especially as his team was not able to really support him.

It was very interesting and very unpredictable. I like to bet on cycling and this Tour showed how exciting this can be although for some this is boring sport and I don't know many people who bet in cycling.
Pogacar made a kind of miracle and I don't think that anyone actually expected something like this to happen. Well done!

[tyKiwanuka]

Congrats if you took Van Aert for top3, this dude is something else, with basically no time to rest after the Tour.

Inside one week of the Tour is still fine in general and you can preserve your peak form for this timeframe. Everything after that you will fade and have to start building up your form again. This is also why the Giro/Tour double is way harder than the Tour/Vuelta double. Between Giro/Tour there is normally 5-6 weeks, between Tour/Vuelta 4 weeks, which means that you are plateuing higher to start the build up for Vuelta again. Getting enough rest after a GT is not necessarily the issue; most riders are fresh again after 1-2 weeks. Riding on peak form is another thing though and most athletes are only able to do it for a limited time and have to start all over afterwards. There are some exceptions though, like Valverde, Sagan etc.

Nevertheless WvA is a freak, yes

(...) although for some this is boring sport (...)

It is actually kind of a boring sport, even for a fan like me and regularly betting on it. There are some races which are interesting for good parts (Paris-Roubaix, RVV, GT stages where teams create havoc from the start), but more often than not, it's really boring until the final km's. It's always the same basically: The race starts, an attackers group seperates from the field and then you can watch the peloton chase them for hours.
It's not a sport where you sit in front of the TV nail-biting all the time and in sheer excitement. But when there is some action then, this is a great sport to watch. Not only the sport itself is enjoyable, but also the often beautiful landscape, all the fans, all the drama. The rest of the time you can just let the TV run without paying too much attention and do some other things in the meantime

[coinlocket$]

As told weeks ago I still don't know who they will do the "Giro D'Italia" this year.

Besides the increasing numbers of the case of COVID in the entire EUROPE, here in Italy's mountains, at least in some of them, the snow is already coming.

Idk how they can even go here in mid-late October, 2700m peak.



Source pic: https://www.giroditalia.it/tappe/tappa-20-alba-sestriere/

[morvillz7z]

here in Italy's mountains, at least in some of them, the snow is already coming.

Shhh, you are going to jinx it, besides where's the global warming when you need it. 

I think we will be fine and the Giro will go as planned, a little snow is alright, riders can deal with it. As long as it's not a hailstorm, like we had last year @Col de l'Iseran, where the organisers had to neutralise/stop the stage and gift Bernal the victory, we should be okay.

TDF2019 vibes 


image source: https://www.cyclist.co.uk/news/6814/tour-de-france-2019-stage-19-cancelled-due-to-hail-snow-and-mudslides

[coinlocket$]

The mountain is already closed for snow.

This is the situation right now.



source: https://www.lastampa.it/cuneo/2020/09/26/news/prima-nevicata-chiuso-il-colle-dell-agnello-riaprira-lunedi-a-mezzogiorno-1.39351784


And we are 1 month off 

[morvillz7z]

image source: https://www.eurosportplayer.com/

...and after a million years the French finally got to the rainbow jersey in today's WC Road Race (the last one was back in 1997).
I got to watch the final 40km, Pogacar had a nice attack on the second to last lap/climb but could not hold on to those 26' seconds he had.
Alaphilippe attacked in the final climb and surprisingly, at least for me, was able to sustain that 10-15 seconds lead. The chasing group, with Van Aert, Kwiatkowski and a few others just couldn't organize themselves, the lead Alaphilippe had was well within their reach with 10km to go.

the Giro starts next Sunday, can't way...

edit; apparently 3rd is Saturday, lol i was about to miss the prologue 

[aesma]

Congrats Alaphilippe, very happy for him ! He won one stage in the TDF so he was already "good" but he continued to attack all along with no luck (after having lost the yellow for something really stupid), this will be a good way to forget about that.

I didn't see it, but what you're describing is common, if the chasing group has good sprinters in it. The others figure "if we organize we'll get him, but I personally have no chance, so why bother ?"

Well looking at that group they're all very good so it might be the alternate reason "every man for himself".

[tyKiwanuka]

Giro starts today ladies and gentlemen

On the menu is a 15.1k individual time trial, which is not super demanding, but features a little climb (1.2k @4.8%) in the beginning.

Michael Matthews tb Geraint Thomas @2.23

Matthews is a good TTer on these shortish courses. These sprinters should have some advantage on the descent, where they could gain some valuable seconds on the non-sprinters. Matthews has an eye on the pink jersey for the next days (well, for tomorrow then basically) and also for wearing the points/sprinters jersey on October 25th in Milan, so he should be super motivated today. Thomas is among the favourites for today as well and rightfully so, but he doesn't have to go all out today and taking 100% risks. His goals are a bit different and more longterm, i.e. winning the Giro.

[morvillz7z]

I had very limited time to watch stage1 today, just glanced Ganna and Thomas on the road.
So in this very short time trial (15km), Thomas made 26 seconds on Yates, over one minute on Nibali and around a minute and a half on Kruijswijk and Fuglsang. Uhh, there are two more individual time trials, 14th stage (34.1km) and 21st (15.7km), if Geraint Thomas doesn't crash and/or have an extremely bad day/s, no way he doesn't win. Anything he can possibly lose in the mountains, he can win it back in TTs, tailor-made Giro for the Brit.

[tyKiwanuka]

Michael Matthews tb Geraint Thomas @2.23

This was only close at first split

(...) if Geraint Thomas doesn't crash and/or have an extremely bad day/s, no way he doesn't win.

Looks like that, yes. Although the GC guys who are not superb TTers tend to lose fewer time in later TT's. Only hope for an exciting race in terms of GC winner is that the Giro always produces some crazy stages with huge gaps, which is rarely the case in other races nowadays. But the field is weak this year for reasons we all know (and can't hear no more), so it's probably enough to keep Yates in check and ride defensively.


A sucker parlay for today:

Almeida tb Masnada (1.27)
Ulissi tb Battaglin (1.41)
parlay @1.79

QuickStep will give full support to Almeida today, because he has good chances to take the maglia rosa in the coming days.
The finish today suits Ulissi very well and if Matthews/Sagan weren't in the race, he would be overwhelming favourite to win. It's something Battaglin likes as well, but he is not as strong as Ulissi in these kind of uphill sprints.

[morvillz7z]

if Geraint Thomas doesn't crash and/or have an extremely bad day/s, no way he doesn't win.

Why did i have to jinx it like that, anyone see the crash? Who throws their bidons in the neutral zone for fuck's sake?

https://twitter.com/salxber/status/1313114965620994051

That was some scary fall and absolute disaster year for Ineos so far, too bad for Geraint Thomas who had a great TT on Saturday and was primed to win the Giro imo.

Anyway, Majka and Kelderman did very well today, i guess we have to put them in the list of maglia rosa contenders. On the contrary, Yates had a pretty bad day, lost a lot of time.

Turbulent start of the Giro...

[tyKiwanuka]

It has gotten quiet here, but there is lots of sports going on all the time, so understandable

A sucker parlay for today:

Almeida tb Masnada (1.27)
Ulissi tb Battaglin (1.41)
parlay @1.79

For the record, this one won easily. Ulissi won the stage and Almeida finished 6th on that day, Masnada 23rd.


Today there will be a 34km ITT on a flat-ish course with only few climbing.

Castroviejo tb De Gendt @2.15

De Gendt says he can finish Top3, if he has the legs. I agree with that, but doubt he will be any good today. He was complaining a lot with all the Corona issues this Giro has. He feels unsafe, is worried with his family and thought more than once about leaving. So looks like he is not really focussed nor super keen on getting a good result here - and he was always a streaky rider. He can be very good or very bad. I hope we will see the bad TdG today on a course that suits Castroviejo better. The Spaniard himself isn't super reliable in ITT's, but can do very good on these kind of courses. Ineos is leading the team classification and need Castroviejo to do good (or at least push till the end). I think the bookmakers have the wrong favourite in this one.

[morvillz7z]

It has gotten quiet here, but there is lots of sports going on all the time, so understandable

Yeah i skipped some of the flat stages we had this week, missed the TT yesterday as well but i'm prepping for an exciting third week, with 3 very tough mountain stages + the final TT.

Very surprising top5 so far, except for Kelderman maybe, the other 4 i don't think anyone expected them to be there at this point.
Ineos might get a top3 finish with Tao Hart who did really well today, finishing with Kelderman and Jai Hindley in the final climb and beating them in the sprint.

Interesting to see if the old dogs (Majka, Nibali, Pozzovivo, Fuglsang) can do something next week, but they are all 3+ mins behind the leaders, so who knows.

Props to Almeida though, for limiting the loss of time today, another day in pink.

[aesma]

So, Kelderman seems to be the favorite to win this. However, being the favorite these days is not necessarily a good thing, what do you think ?

@morvillz7z : more importantly these "old" riders have shown their limits.

[tyKiwanuka]

So, Kelderman seems to be the favorite to win this. However, being the favorite these days is not necessarily a good thing, what do you think ?

Well, the Giro is known for crazy stages and we still have 3 mountain stages plus an ITT. Add some bad weather and 3-4 minutes are not a lot. And we have a new round of Corona tests on tomorrows rest day....although during the week everyone was negative. But it's really a strange edition this year and we will most likely have a winner, who would have never won under normal circumstances. The field was pretty weak from the start, because most riders chose to do the Tour/Vuelta double this year (or just the Tour). And then the two best riders had to leave the Giro

The Vuelta will start on Tuesday btw with quite some climbing on first stage already.

Castroviejo tb De Gendt @2.15

Lost. Castro did was he supposed to do and finished 8th, while TdG had one of his better days and only missed the podium by 2secs.

[Alucard1]

Cycling was for a long time my favorite sport to watch and to bet on. I always adored the cyclists for their dedication, idealism, and willingness to suffer. And cyclists are tough as nails - I always laugh at footballers lying on the pitch, screaming and doing Hollywood with minor injuries When there is some crash, the first thing these people do is to look for their bike, because they want to keep going and not lose any time.

That's true, that is how a good cyclist will act after having a crash, even though they are already injured with the out blood they will continue the race until they finish the line, that is why I always want to watch a bike race because it is very entertaining and I admired every cyclist and that is also one of my favorite sports to bet, I want to enjoy while having a bet, it would be a great feeling winning the bet and watching the race, maybe this what would you feel if you are also a cyclist.

[morvillz7z]

source: https://www.eurosportplayer.com/

Such a beautiful shot, 10/10!
It was a pretty entertaining stage from start to finish, you can't expect anything less when you have a famous and brutal climb like Stelvio.
Rohan Dennis was exceptional today, a TT specialist like him outran most climbers and GC guys, too bad Tao Hart couldn't capitalize completely by taking the pink jersey in the end.
The top 3 riders are within 15 seconds, but it's between Kelderman and Hart for the Giro win, i think Hindley will lose time on the last TT on Sunday.
I've read that dell'Agnello is removed from the 20th stage, interesting to see if Ineos can set up the pace like today and make it tough for Sunweb.

Hindley and the jacket  
https://www.eurosport.co.uk/cycling/giro-d-italia/2020/giro-d-italia-jai-hinley-almost-crashed-trying-to-get-his-jacket-when-climbing-stelvio_vid1373859/video.shtml

[Cnut237]

Cycling was for a long time my favorite sport to watch and to bet on. I always adored the cyclists for their dedication, idealism, and willingness to suffer. And cyclists are tough as nails - I always laugh at footballers lying on the pitch, screaming and doing Hollywood with minor injuries When there is some crash, the first thing these people do is to look for their bike, because they want to keep going and not lose any time.

That's true, that is how a good cyclist will act after having a crash, even though they are already injured with the out blood they will continue the race until they finish the line

They are astonishingly tough. But it's not just this ability to jump back on the bike after having a crash, it's also the ridiculous levels of bravery they exhibit. They've all had big crashes before, but it doesn't slow them down one bit. You see them pedalling as hard as they can whilst riding steeply downhill on a wet mountain road. It takes a lot to be a top cyclist... the combination of physical ability and mental attitude that are demanded are perhaps unmatched in any other sport.

[morvillz7z]

Imagine if we had this at Tour de France before the final stage...


source: https://www.giroditalia.it

I don't want jinx Tao Hart like i did Geraint Thomas, but he has to crash two or three times, and he will probably still beat Hindley.

I'm still wondering what could have happened if Sunweb had Hindley wait for and help Kelderman @Stelvio, maybe those 2+ min loss of time could have been avoided somehow.

Anyway, Ineos and Filippo Ganna should let Rohan Dennis win tomorrow's TT, he deserves it 100% after what he did Thursday and today.

[aesma]

Cycling was for a long time my favorite sport to watch and to bet on. I always adored the cyclists for their dedication, idealism, and willingness to suffer. And cyclists are tough as nails - I always laugh at footballers lying on the pitch, screaming and doing Hollywood with minor injuries When there is some crash, the first thing these people do is to look for their bike, because they want to keep going and not lose any time.

That's true, that is how a good cyclist will act after having a crash, even though they are already injured with the out blood they will continue the race until they finish the line, that is why I always want to watch a bike race because it is very entertaining and I admired every cyclist and that is also one of my favorite sports to bet, I want to enjoy while having a bet, it would be a great feeling winning the bet and watching the race, maybe this what would you feel if you are also a cyclist.

About tough cyclists, here is a tweet from Chloé Dygert, don't look if you're queasy : https://twitter.com/chloedygert30/status/1309342151034261504

She crashed and got a deep and large laceration on her leg, yet her first thought was to climb back on her bike and still try to win, until she saw the injury.

[aesma]

Congrats Tao Geoghegan Hart for winning the Giro ! Now how do we say your name again ?

Congrats also to Arnaud Démare (funny name in French) for winning the points classification !

[bitbunnny]

Congrats Tao Geoghegan Hart for winning the Giro ! Now how do we say your name again ?

Congrats also to Arnaud Démare (funny name in French) for winning the points classification !

It was kind of surprise to me but congratulations, of course. And it was good Giro despite all circumstances with pandemic and everything. Although I bet on cycling quite often this time I didn't have much luck. But this is also the beauty of gambling and although things don't always turn how we play it's fun.

[morvillz7z]

You guys watching the Vuelta?
Just a quick reminder that we have one of the best and hardest climbs tomorrow, the stage will finish @ Alto de L’Angliru, a must watch!
Contador's win at L'Angliru in 2017 is in my top 5 favorite cycling moments ever, epic solo ride to conclude an amazing career for the Spaniard.

"Angliru starts off relatively easy - the average gradient on the first 5 km is 7.6 %, enough to hurt but well within the realms of rideable for a professional. The sixth kilometre is easy, flattening for a while and even descending for a short way. From then on, it gets tough. Very tough. The average gradient for the last 6 km is 13.1 %, beginning to stretch the boundaries of what can be done - but, as if that wasn't harsh enough, there's the Cueña les Cabres 3 km from the top with a gradient of 23.8 %."

source: http://killingmontezoncolan.blogspot.com/2012/03/alto-de-langliru-vuelta-alto-de.html

[tyKiwanuka]

I only got to watch very few unfortunately and had basically no bets, because there are so many other different things going on and watching/following Cycling is really time-consuming. The Vuelta has strangely always been my favourite GT, because it used to take place when there was also the Tennis US Open running and NFL started as well around that time always. Were always super busy, but very exciting weeks, where I would watch the Vuelta 3-4 hours, then switch over to Tennis and later that day night add some NFL, amazing

Looking at the GC, it's the skijumper's to lose with the TT coming up on Tuesday and the rest of the week not being super demanding at least profile-wise. Only obstacle will be the Alto de la Covatilla (11.7k @6.9%), where you won't lose a lot of time normally. But there is the Angliru today as you mentioned, which is one hell of a climb.

[bitbunnny]

I can't say I watch Vuelta very carefully but I drop an eye from time to time.
Roglic is my favourite although he might not have the biggest chance to win the race but this year Tour the France showed us that everything is possible. But the most important is the good and exciting race.

[aesma]

You guys watching the Vuelta?
Just a quick reminder that we have one of the best and hardest climbs tomorrow, the stage will finish @ Alto de L’Angliru, a must watch!
Contador's win at L'Angliru in 2017 is in my top 5 favorite cycling moments ever, epic solo ride to conclude an amazing career for the Spaniard.

"Angliru starts off relatively easy - the average gradient on the first 5 km is 7.6 %, enough to hurt but well within the realms of rideable for a professional. The sixth kilometre is easy, flattening for a while and even descending for a short way. From then on, it gets tough. Very tough. The average gradient for the last 6 km is 13.1 %, beginning to stretch the boundaries of what can be done - but, as if that wasn't harsh enough, there's the Cueña les Cabres 3 km from the top with a gradient of 23.8 %."

source: http://killingmontezoncolan.blogspot.com/2012/03/alto-de-langliru-vuelta-alto-de.html

I've never watched the Vuelta, as the Tour de France already takes a lot of my time in the year. I found a quick video of stages 11&12 of this year's Vuelta : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_w3Uc2oeS0

Indeed that Angliru looks very nice, I will find a fuller video to watch the climb in full.

[morvillz7z]

1  PRIMOŽ ROGLIC       64h 20' 31''
2  RICHARD CARAPAZ   + 00h 00' 45''
3  HUGH JOHN CARTHY  + 00h 00' 53''

source: https://www.lavuelta.es/en/rankings

One stage left to go today, if we don't count the one on Sunday which is like in Tour de France, a parade, celebrating the winners if you will.
The riders will have fairly easy job with just one decent climb 11.4km at 7.1% (Alto de La Covatilla), there's another one but it's too early placed in the stage.
Roglic has a comfy lead imo, the first place and La Roja should be out of the question. What remains to be seen is, can EF Pro Cycling and Hugh Carthy take second place, Carapaz has just 8 seconds lead.

I don't know what's the weather forecast for the final climb @La Covatilla but i would like to see some snow.    
Riders got through a pretty bad rainstorm the other day, so a little bit of snowing should be the perfect ending to a very chaotic season.

[bitbunnny]

The Vuelta is coming to the end, tomorrow everything will be finished. My favourite Roglic was doing well and he is coming closer to the final win so I hope this will be the final outcome and I'll win the bet. I also hope that the weather forecast for tomorrow is good. Anyway,  it was another good race, looking forward for the next one.

[morvillz7z]

Roglic has a comfy lead imo, the first place and La Roja should be out of the question.

Boy, was he close to lose yet another grand tour in the final stage, props to Carapaz for making it interesting in the final kms of the La Covatilla climb.

That's back-to-back Vueltas for Roglic, but he needs to add the Tour de France title to his resume. Not sure how easy is that going to be with Ineos putting a crazy good team next year, Froome will be motivated to shush his critics being that with a new team (Israel Start-Up Nation). Speaking of TdF, the route for the 2021 edition was released earlier this week, double climb of Mont Ventoux (11th stage), 2 x TT and Tourmalet (18th stage)...looks good.

https://www.letour.fr/en/stage-11

[famososMuertos]

La vuelta stage 18  ACKERMANN.   Madrid "Zarzuela" with latin flavor.

Primoz Roglic !! 
2nd place Carapaz and 3rd place Carthy completed the final podium in La Vuelta.

__

Interesting to see the top 10 on Monday after the three great competitions finished...

[babygun]

Didn't have much time to watch the Vuelta but Roglic deserved the victory. He was the strongest and won 4 stages!
Tim Wellens was also a revelation with 2 wins.

Up to the next season!

[aesma]

Primoz Roglic saved his season, good for him.

Also Froome was given the trophy of the 2011 Vuelta he retroactively won, changing all the statistics. He's now the first Briton to win a grand tour instead of Wiggins !

https://www.eurosport.com/cycling/la-vuelta-2020-chris-froome-lifts-the-vuelta-trophy.-nine-years-on-from-his-win_sto7985141/story.shtml

[famososMuertos]

Interesting to see the top 10 on Monday after the three great competitions finished...

Didn't have much time to watch the Vuelta but Roglic deserved the victory. He was the strongest and won 4 stages!
Tim Wellens was also a revelation with 2 wins.

Up to the next season!

Let's go! It is not about time, it is about desire, there is always time when things are wanted, this thread helped me to be updated.
________-
By the way I liked these data that this user commented on twitter:

Last generals finished by Roglic!!

1º Vuelta a España
2º Tour de Francia
1º Tour de l’Ain
1º Vuelta a España
3º Giro de Italia
1º Romandía   
1º Tirreno
1º UAE Tour
4º Tour de Francia
1º Tour de Eslovenia
1º Romandía
1º Itzulia

¡Genio!
Source:https://twitter.com/AlbertoArauzM/status/1325213136371200001

[morvillz7z]

Bump! The 2021 season has started with Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and UAE Tour.  

I didn't have much time to watch the UAE Tour in full but caught Jonas Vingegaard's nice win in stage 5, also Caleb Ewan's surprise win today over Sam Bennett who was close to record a hat-trick but was outsmarted by the Australian in the final meters of the stage.

Pogacar won it for UAE team, Adam Yates finished second, dude had a miserable final stage, got involved in a scary crash hitting the asphalt with his face and getting multiple cuts as a result.

I don't have any big takeaways from the UAE tour, it's the start of the season, but it was weird seeing Chris Froome in another uniform/team (Israel Start Up Nation), this will need getting used to i guess.

Anyway, let's finish with some decent shots from the UAE tour (click for high-res):



image source: https://www.theuaetour.com

@tyKiwanuka you can perhaps update the calendar on page 1, we have some nice classics coming up next month.  

[tyKiwanuka]

Updated the calendar, thanks for reminding me.

I watched a good part of UAE Tour (I even watched Etoile de Besseges earlier this month ) and it was a good start to the real season I think. These mountains there are a bit meh, if you are used to the beautiful sceneries in Europe with small/narrow roads, some trees and all the tradition, but it was a good competition between Pogacar/Yates in stage 3. Dekker was nice to watch in the sprinting stages as well; he could be really good in the years to come and he isn't "just" a sprinter from all I know.

Regarding Froome, it will be interesting to see, what he can do throughout the season. I don't expect anything tbh

Tomorrow there will be K-B-K where basically all the guys from Omloop will be starting as well. There is one guy though, who wasn't at Omloop, but will start K-B-K and that is MvdP He had to leave UAE tour early, because of a Covid case in his team, but he looked in fine form winning stage 1 and should normally win tomorrow as well.

[tyKiwanuka]

On Saturday there will be the Strade Bianche, which is a super nice race with some gravel roads. I like this race, because tactics or team strength don't play a big role, the strongest riders will be there in the end and fight it out; you don't win this race getting lucky or whatever. There are no groups arriving at the finish line together and the majority of riders DNF's.

When there is rain, these are epic battles, but the weather forecast says no rain or very slight, though there is some rain right now in the Siena area. In dry-ish conditions this race suits a lot of riders, but one-day-race-specialists are normally favoured and if you have cross experience thats even better. No wonder the big favs are MvdP, van Aert and Alaphillipe.

The profile (white=gravel roads):


Source: https://www.strade-bianche.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/interni_garibaldi-SB_2021_ME-bassa.pdf

The last 3km:


Source: https://www.strade-bianche.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/interni_garibaldi-SB_2021_ME-bassa.pdf

I placed a bet on Alaphillipe at around 5, because he is just a beast on these walls near the finish line. Last year he got a bit unlucky with mechanicals all the time and only finished 24th and 15 minutes down to van Aert. Maybe he has some more luck with his equipment this time. He has been in good form so far this season and won this race in 2019 already.
I don't see MvdP being able to challenge Ala on this wall, but you never know with this guy, he probably arrives there alone after some 150km solo Van Aert just comes from training camp and it will be his first road race of the season, so I don't expect him to be super sharp already.

[babygun]

I placed a bet on Alaphillipe at around 5, because he is just a beast on these walls near the finish line. Last year he got a bit unlucky with mechanicals all the time and only finished 24th and 15 minutes down to van Aert. Maybe he has some more luck with his equipment this time. He has been in good form so far this season and won this race in 2019 already.
I don't see MvdP being able to challenge Ala on this wall, but you never know with this guy, he probably arrives there alone after some 150km solo Van Aert just comes from training camp and it will be his first road race of the season, so I don't expect him to be super sharp already.

Always a fun race to watch, especially the last kilometers!
I can follow your logique by placing the bet on Alaphillipe, he is one of the best in finishes like this (Waalse Pijl also) but I will just place a bet on top 3. I don't want to rule out MvdP and Van Aert. Even though it is Van Aerts his first race, he won it last year and will be fully motivated to win it again this year.

[morvillz7z]

Mathieu van der Poel won the race and deservedly so imo, he was too strong for Alaphillipe in that final short uphill sprint in Siena.
I think it was also van der Poel who opened a gap with the main group 10km before the final and looked really solid throughout the entire race.

Bernal made a surprising show in top3, the Colombian looks to be in great shape this early in the season, he seems to be the bookies favorite to win Giro d'Italia too.

As for Van Aert, i think he should focus entirely on Tour de France and be Roglic's best helper he can possibly be, Jumbo–Visma will want to avenge for losing to Pogacar and Ineos will come with a stacked team. These early season classics shouldn't be a priority for him and the team, he needs to be in top form come June/July.

Oh, i took a small bet on Alaphillipe to finish in top 3, like babygun. 

[tyKiwanuka]

Paris-Nice finished some moments ago and Roglic blew a lead again and lost 3:08 minutes in the last stage, which wasn't a very hard stage for his standards. But tbf he had a crash earlier in the stage. In the end it was Schachmann capitalizing and winning this race back to back. His odds to win the GC were around 25 before the final stage and I would have never placed a bet on that, but thats cycling


Source: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/paris-nice/2021/gc


In Tirreno-Adriatico there are 2 stages left; a sprinters stage tomorrow and then the usual ITT in San Benedetto del Tronto. Pogacar will win this race, if he doesn't crash, he has 1:15 on WvA and 3:00 on Landa. MvdP had one of his moments today again and won with a long solo. All stages in this race were won by the big guys. When Pogacar won yesterdays mountain stage, it was the first time EVER that neither of WvA/Ala/MvdP won, when they all were at the start. It wasn't that many races until now, but still shows how dominant these three are. Kind of boring if you ask me, but well deserved, because this doesn't come easy.

Next weekend is MSR then

[morvillz7z]

Paris-Nice finished some moments ago and Roglic blew a lead again and lost 3:08 minutes in the last stage, which wasn't a very hard stage for his standards.

I decided not to watch the stage, Roglic with a comfy i mean what could go wrong, right? and besides there were some other interesting things on TV at that time...thank goodness Eurosport player has all the stages and you can rewatch at a later date.

But tbf he had a crash earlier in the stage.

They say it was two crashes and he suffered some injuries as well:

source: https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/primoz-roglic-suffers-dislocated-shoulder-in-paris-nice-crash/

Roglič suffered torn bib shorts on both sides as well as nasty road rash to his hips but revealed in a post-race interview that he also suffered the shoulder injury early on in the day <...> "With the first one I dislocated the left shoulder and then one more time…"

...if it was that bad why didn't they pull him off the race, TdF is in three months, why risk it @Jumbo–Visma?

so apparently he was close to a hat-trick  , i absolutely need to watch this stage sometime next week, damn...


image source: https://www.eurosportplayer.com

[tyKiwanuka]

...if it was that bad why didn't they pull him off the race, TdF is in three months, why risk it @Jumbo–Visma?

Roglic just wants to win every stage/race there is I think. He is no young gun anymore and there is only so much time left for him to fill his palmares up. You could see it in stage 7, where he took the win away from Mäder in the last meters with basically no need. This isn't liked by the Peloton as we know and lots of riders were congratulating Schachmann very joyful - looked like everyone was happy that Roglic didn't win the GC.


Source: https://twitter.com/friebos/status/1370756819308675082

image source: https://www.eurosportplayer.com

This scene was super "funny" to watch, because Roglic was just following the Quickstep guy, while you could clearly see, that he won't make the bend Guess Roglic was somewhere else with his mind, in pain, mad etc. But nothing happened there fortunately, just some more time lost.

[morvillz7z]

Next weekend is MSR then

I've cleared my schedule for Saturday and should be able to catch Milan–San Remo from the 1st km.

I picked Van Aert ^4.18 or van der Poel ^3.59 to win but have this weird feeling we will rather get a pure sprinter victorious in the end. The last time a sprinter won was 2016, FDJ with Arnaud Demare. It's been a while, so the all-around/GC guys domination has to stop at some point, right? 

Here's the startlist:
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/milano-sanremo/2021/result/startlist

Jumbo-Visma with a shit squad, Quick Step, INEOS, and BORA look solid, now i wish have gone with Alaphilippe and hedge it with Bennett...

@tyKiwanuka do you have any bets and how do you see the first monument play out?

[tyKiwanuka]

@tyKiwanuka do you have any bets and how do you see the first monument play out?

The last time I checked, headwind was forecasted, what will probably take a lot of action out of the race. But in the end this shouldn't matter, since I expect things to play out according to what the betting markets suggest, i.e. the pure sprinters won't have much of a chance (again) and one of Wout van der Poelippe will win. From these three I would rate MvdP the most likely to win, because of his explosiveness. If his odds have any value I don't know, because there is always the possibility of him getting bored and doing stupid things (on the Cipressa) from a tactical point of view. WvA I would rate the worst, because if MvdP/Ala attack he will not be able to follow immediately and there is not much road left normally until the descent starts. Ala looked bad against MvdP in Strade Bianche, but this is a new race and Ala knows how to win here, so he probably has the most value for me at around 10 rn.

So far I have only put a bet on MvdP @4.2 and layed Ewan, Demare, Pidcock, Bennett and Pedersen (he will not start) a bit. Looking at the H2H, I like Demare tb Bennett for 2.5+. Bennett has poor results here and it's not so much about how fast you can sprint in general, but how fast you can sprint after 299km. That is, if Bennett is even able to finish in group 2/3, which I have my doubts about.

I was never a big fan of (betting on) MSR tbh, I am more a fan of races that evolve earlier than just at a little hill at the end of an ultra long day But nevertheless, once we finally hit the Poggio things get exciting and until then one can enjoy the beautiful scenery at least.

Personally, I am keeping my fingers crossed for Mohoric; would be happy for him, if he wins

[morvillz7z]

What were the odds for Jasper Stuyven to win Milan-San Remo, 30+ would be my guess, right? Surprising winner but that's an excellent start of the season for Trek - Segafredo, apparently this was their 6 stage/race win, not that bad...

About the race itself, i thought MvdP had awful positioning throughout the Poggio, he stayed way behind and had to chase and exert a lot of energy. Most of the guys in the front group looked a bit tired also, thanks Filippo Ganna and his high tempo, Alaphilippe's attack at the end of the Poggio was not that impressive either.

Stuyven probably would not have won if Van Aert and the rest started their sprint just maybe 200 meters earlier, entering the final km i saw some of them zig-zagging looking around, literally nobody wanted to chase those two in front.....and they lost. It was still pretty entertaining, i was surprised to see Ewan and Sagan doing so well, Sagan barely missed the podium.


Volta a Catalunya next week should be pretty good as startlist looks juicy, not sure how many stages i can watch, but will make sure to catch at least RIPOLL > PORT AINE, three climbs over 1500m.

[tyKiwanuka]

What were the odds for Jasper Stuyven to win Milan-San Remo, 30+ would be my guess, right?

Well above 100, at Befair you could surely have gotten close to 200

The Poggio was a bit weird, because of the reasons you mentioned. I still found that MvdP looked super strong when he closed the gap after being badly positioned when the attack happened. Was suprised to see him so far back, because it's not that super unusual for an attack to be launched at that point

Sagan was pretty strong all things considered and Ewan looked fantastic on the Poggio.

Stuyven probably would not have won if Van Aert and the rest started their sprint just maybe 200 meters earlier, entering the final km i saw some of them zig-zagging looking around, literally nobody wanted to chase those two in front.....and they lost.

This is something I will never understand, guess it's about game theory. Even if someone like WvA goes into the red chasing, he still has a better chance of winning than just zig-zagging and not catching those guys upfront at all.

-

Betting-wise it was a small profit thanks to Demare beating Bennett, but I was sweating a bit with Ewan/Pidcock being in the lead group after Poggio

[morvillz7z]

Ineos with 1, 2, and 3rd place on Volta a Catalunya. 

They will make a mistake if Yates is not in their squad for TdF, he seems to be in top form, the way he beat everyone at Vallter 2000 in stage 3, so effortless.

Froome didn't look good at all imo, i know Volta a Catalunya is not something he would set eyes on to win, it's just another race in preparation for the Tour and he is still working on his fitness and form, but still, he is 35 and i just have a feeling we will never see him again battle for GC...

@tyKiwanuka are there any odds for the Green jersey (TdF) out yet? Sagan not losing two in a row, isn't he? Btw, great win yesterday!

[morvillz7z]

                     The 104th Giro d’Italia
                                    (May 8-30, 2021)

image source: https://twitter.com/giroditalia/status/1380495782642642947

Where my cycling bros at?  

Giro d'Italia starts today with a really short 8.6 km individual time trial! Simon Yates, Bernal, and Evenepoel are amongst the top contenders for Maglia Rosa in this year's edition of the Giro.

The stages i'm looking forward to seeing the most are  #11 with strade bianche in Tuscany, stage 14 with a finish at Monte Zoncolan, and stage 20 with the pic-related Madonna d'Europa and three big climbs. I'm sure we will have one hell of a race, as the Giro never fails to disappoint, and it's probably the most fun and unpredictable of the three big tours.

ps, I have a small wager on Ganna to take the ITT today, slightly worried about Remi Cavagna though...

[iTradeChips]

I used to watch tour de France until Lance Armstrong decided to blow up his cover. I had great respect for this guy and thought cycling was the only game left out of drugs until reality struck me.

Now I watch but not devoted to this game anymore. Thanks, @tyKiwanuka for creating this thread and the itinerary of 2020 tournament.

I remember he was the reason why I got into cycling in my college years. There was so many cycling tours back then including the now defunct Marlboro Tour in the Philippines. I do not know if the said tour was renamed or something but as I got older my cycling enthusiasm paved way to working life and the pursuit of living to survive. Due to the pandemic I decided to purchase a mountain bike again so I could go places during the months of quarantine where there was no public transportation. Since you made this thread, I might as well check the sites devoted to cycling and the tours that happen around the world.

[molsewid]

can't agree more with the initial post! Cycles are so brave and tough people, it's impossible to imagine! Cycling is just a hobby for me, however, I really adore those who are so passionate about it, whose fire is bursting when they describe what cycling means for them. It literally gives me chills, I swear. I'd really love to have such a passion in my life...
Now I'm trying to upgrade my bike, I'm looking for some details and accessories online to make it more up-to-date. I've already ordered illumination lights from https://www.amazon.com/Vont-Rechargeable-Illumination-Resistant-Accessories/dp/B078TB9TMK and I'm looking for additional accessories like a new helmet and reflective jacket since it became dangerous to ride a bike on our town roads. I'd be grateful for any suggestions provided. Thanks in advance.

I agree with you that cycling are for brave, strong and tough people. My body can't longer take how hard it is. I've watch from some of the influencers here in our country that do cycling and they seems happy and looks really fit. I thought at first it's easy and you also have coach that you need to follow. I tried it on ny own and I can't handle the pain. I don't know hoy they do it, I feel kinda jealous and asking myself why they can and I cant. But I'm okay now in biking. Like you I bought cute stuff for my bike to motivate me more. I wish I can share the link but I bought them personally and seems like we're too far.

[famososMuertos]

So fast letour, but of course last year, due to a pandemic, it had to be held at the wrong time.

The best cycling race in the world already has its first winner Julian Alaphilippe.
The top 3 is completed by Michael Matthews and Ide Shelling.

Richard Carapaz one of my favorites finished in 22nd place.

[Saint-loup]

Does anyone know where the points to be earned for each climb of the Tour de France are available?
Today Pogacar won 40(!) points for one single climb at the stage 17. How fair is that? It seems there was a double points bonus for this HC climb.
https://www.letour.fr/en/rankings/stage-17
And now Pogacar is second of the mountains classification with 67pts behind Wouter Poels(78pts)... and favorite of bookmakers!
I bet 2 days ago on Poels and Quintana for the best climber title but now I'm afraid of a new attack from Pogacar in a high awarded climb.

[morvillz7z]

^
It's standard scoring, you get 20pts for HC and 2x the points if the stage finishes at HC climb. It should be the first eight riders receiving points for HC climbs, not sure the exact breakdown, but it goes something like this: 20-15-12 and 40-30-24, etc.

There will be two HC climbs today (stage 18) Tourmalet and Luz Ardiden, i could totally see a big breakaway group early with nobody from GC guys in there with 10+ minutes gap and UAE controlling the pace. If Wout Poels has the legs and he is in that breakaway group, he should able to beat both Quintana and Woods (or anyone else) at Tourmalet.

With 64 pts, Wout van Aert could be a wild card, but JUMBO-VISMA will most likely have him help Vingegaard on the final climb, i expect a battle between him and Carapaz for the second-third place in the final kilometers at Luz Ardiden.

tl;dr Pogacar already won a tough mountain stage, as well as the Tour. In my eyes, Wout Poels is 90-95% favorite to win the polka dot jersey, unless of course something extraordinary happens.

[Saint-loup]

OMG the french police has raided the Bahrain Victorious hotel during this night, with dozens of police officers.
A french public prosecutor has opened a preliminary investigation into the "acquisition, transportation, possession and importing of a prohibited substance or method for use by an athlete without justification by members of Team Bahrain Victorious, currently in action at the 2021 Tour de France."
Bahrain Victorious is the team of Wout Poels and the team currently leading the team classification by 34 minutes and I've bet on them too.  
https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/police-raid-bahrain-victorious-hotel-at-tour-de-france/