Bitcoin Rise Due to Lower US Dollar?

[pooya87]

In recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin appears to have been driven by one main factor, namely the weakening of the US dollar.

US dollar losing its value is not something that happens over night, it is a slow process whereas bitcoin price went up about 30% in a short time. this particular rise has nothing to do with US dollar and its "weakening".
overall, there is definitely a connection but we will only see said effects over the long haul.

The Rekt Capital Twitter account supports the analysis,

oh some random dude on twitter, so it must be correct /s

3 months ago,one dollar was selling for 1.79 Bulgarian leva,now 1 USD is selling for 1.66 BGN.
There's a significant fall of the USD price,even compared with a very small national currency like BGN.
I think that making comparisons between the USD and other major currencies like euro and British pound isn't showing the real decline of the USD,because the EUR and the British pound are going down as well.
Many investors hedged their USD reserves by buying BTC,so the Bitcoin price went up.

actually if you want to know whether or not value of a currency has fallen you shouldn't compare it with another currency (even though most of the times it could be correct). in this case for instance it doesn't matter if USD is worth more or less against some other fiat, what matters is its purchasing power. for example did the rents go up? did the groceries go up? did the utilities bill go up? etc. all of these are going up because USD is declining in value but as i said over the long haul not in short term and not big like by 30%, at least not at the moment.

[tabas]

Without the COVID-19 a few years ago, bitcoin was strong and US dollar was strong during that time. But it sums up to the speculation of most market watchers.
And don't you ignore that it's not all about US dollars weakening why bitcoin is rising this time.

[justdimin]

I feel like dollar losing value played a big role but halving played another role in this increase as well which people forget nowadays. Just in may we have basically dropped almost a million dollars per day money right there on the table after the halving, you have to realize that this should have an effect on bitcoin as well. Obviously it can't have daily affect because daily changes are bigger than a million dollars a day, but lack of it totally combined after certain period of time does have an effect.

Obviously I am not saying that is the only thing, obviously printing of dollar in trillions has a much bigger impact on bitcoin however that doesn't mean that bitcoin could be increasing due to just one thing and one thing alone, it does change because of some other stuff as well, mainly halving for example.

[exstasie]

In recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin appears to have been driven by one main factor, namely the weakening of the US dollar. This correlation is evident when comparing the US dollar index against Bitcoin.

Correlation is not causation.

We can look at this from another perspective. Pull up a chart of the NASDAQ index, XAUUSD (gold), and BTC. They are all strongly correlated since March, all in strong bull trends, and have broken above their yearly highs. In fact this correlation goes far beyond these three assets; risk assets are in bull markets almost across the board. And there is a good explanation for that: $6 trillion pumped into the economy through Fed QE and stimulus.

The DXY does historically have some negative correlation with stocks and gold. However, I think the current DXY weakness is rather due to the magnitude of the US's economic contraction and its poor response to COVID-19 pandemic, relative to other currencies in the basket. I don't think this has much effect (if any) on BTC.

[lumeire]

Without the COVID-19 a few years ago, bitcoin was strong and US dollar was strong during that time. But it sums up to the speculation of most market watchers.
And don't you ignore that it's not all about US dollars weakening why bitcoin is rising this time.

I guess maybe the rise in bitcoin price is because of the Korean government removing the ban on people which was restricting them to deposit their korean money from the banks to bitcoin trading sites and exchanges. Although a lot of Korean people didn't know about the removal of this ban but maybe they are now becoming aware of it as the time passes by. Also the price increase can be dueled by various other factors like the unrest which is currently in America, inflation all around the globe which is causing the dollar value to fall so technically the bitcoin value should rise against a falling USD, the fed printing a lot of money for stimulus package and many other reasons can be included in the list as well

[YOSHIE]

slow economic growth and expanding central bank balance sheets have the potential to weaken the dollar and investors seek safe areas in assets like gold and Bitcoin.

Maybe, could be the main reason ...!

However, we know that the economy is very closely related to the dollar, so far almost the entire world economy has deteriorated, but Bitcoin still has a positive impact, that's what makes many investors turn to Bitcoin at this time, so it's only natural that the Bitcoin price soared.

For other reasons, it can be said is, the increasing number of crypto users and miners today, with reason, it means that the interest of Bitcoin buyers is swelling, Of course, with a limited capacity of only 21 million, maximum, this can also spur current price movements.

[Rune]

It's obviously going up due to the self fulfilling prophecy of the halving it does it every single time because people with money know they can keep this pattern going and pump it after the halving.
They will keep doing this until the price gets to high to pump any longer.
I am skeptical of Tether and websites like bitmex having a lot of control over the price.
But I am just here to ride behind them on the tail of the wave

[tbterryboy]

Bitcoin increases because lower fiat, you think dollar is the only thing that is getting affected right now? Do not get me wrong I understand the logic that bitcoin is calculated with dollar most commonly so dollar going down should be an important piece of information.

However when we are talking about why people buy bitcoin, most of the time it is to make more fiat, and people who live outside of USA also uses bitcoin for the same reason, which means that you should be a bit more careful about who goes in with what type of money and I feel like the whole world is going into bitcoin because fiat currencies are dropping down in value. Obviously it is not the number one priority here but it is definitely an important part of the puzzle that caused it to go up.

[Rengga Jati]

Why do we always associate the US dollar with the current increase in Bitcoin? There are many things to trigger the rise in Bitcoin value, it is not only about the US dollar. The lower value in the US dollar may have a role in the increase of Bitcoin but I don't think it has a big influence. The most thing to trigger the move in Bitcoin price is the demand on the market. People believe that will be a significant increase after the current halving, so they are probably trying to buy as long as the price is still at a lower rate.

[STT]

You are correct, its not a simple relationship.   Theres alot of things that will throw people off that not appear like they would be correct, I keep hearing how they is a shortage of dollars on the global market because of the slowing to global GDP it means lower monetary velocity and less dollars circulate meaning there are deflationary effects in play not a simple linear inflation from greater total US dollars.   The problem is the production of dollars is uneven and unfairly credits a central authority, its ultimately not going to serve capitalism when its uneven in this way.   I do hope BTC succeeds by doing a better job and this is the ratio by which we see the price appreciate.

[$crypto$]

Why do we always associate the US dollar with the current increase in Bitcoin? There are many things to trigger the rise in Bitcoin value, it is not only about the US dollar. The lower value in the US dollar may have a role in the increase of Bitcoin but I don't think it has a big influence. The most thing to trigger the move in Bitcoin price is the demand on the market. People believe that will be a significant increase after the current halving, so they are probably trying to buy as long as the price is still at a lower rate.

Of course, with a lot of demand in the market it can increase the price which continues to surge so the effect of the US dollar value is very little insignificant and what I know best is that the halving always makes or the market becomes a bull run where there are many extraordinary increases in coins and altcoins.
What is clear is not certain from all US dollars because investors have hoarded a lot of coins that they had held before the halving so that they know the market will turn green at a time like now I am sure the price of bitcoin will continue to increase over time.

[Reid]

It must have a little thing to do it with it but not the main factor of the rise.
There is so much other ways into why it would happen.
i.e. rich people looking for something new, stimulus check, its the normal run of bitcoin

I mean you cannot just put all the reason there. If it does goes strong again, does that mean bitcoin price will fall once again?

[wxa7115]

No one can predict the future, but increasing global debt, slow economic growth and expanding central bank balance sheets have the potential to weaken the dollar and investors seek safe areas in assets like gold and Bitcoin.

In recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin appears to have been driven by one main factor, namely the weakening of the US dollar. This correlation is evident when comparing the US dollar index against Bitcoin.
The inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar is supported by technical analysis on the price chart. The Rekt Capital Twitter account supports the analysis, that Bitcoin has broken an important resistance level. Bitcoin price is unlikely to fall below that level, which is at the level of US $ 8 thousand.

In addition, Bitcoin was successfully closed at the weekly price above the US $ 11,400 resistance area.

It is very unlikely to link the short term fluctuations of bitcoin to the long term weakening of the dollar, if anything we could link this to the long term upward trajectory of the price of bitcoin but nothing more.

I think that when it comes to this movement we are simply seeing factors that are exclusive to bitcoin and the market in general, the price was already in an upward trajectory before it crashed because of the pandemic concerns and since then it has increased once again, so it seems to me that this is the effect of the halving and the new enthusiasm the market is attracting due to the DeFi hype.

[arwin100]

Why do we always associate the US dollar with the current increase in Bitcoin? There are many things to trigger the rise in Bitcoin value, it is not only about the US dollar. The lower value in the US dollar may have a role in the increase of Bitcoin but I don't think it has a big influence. The most thing to trigger the move in Bitcoin price is the demand on the market. People believe that will be a significant increase after the current halving, so they are probably trying to buy as long as the price is still at a lower rate.

Of course, with a lot of demand in the market it can increase the price which continues to surge so the effect of the US dollar value is very little insignificant and what I know best is that the halving always makes or the market becomes a bull run where there are many extraordinary increases in coins and altcoins.
What is clear is not certain from all US dollars because investors have hoarded a lot of coins that they had held before the halving so that they know the market will turn green at a time like now I am sure the price of bitcoin will continue to increase over time.

Don't know on what connection on dropping of dollar since bitcoin is global usage and anyone can accumulate it easily. And for what I see here is the reason of the pump is the continuous hype brought by the halving and also the slow pump happening many people though that bull run will follow since this is mostly what happen after halving take effect.

And yes for sure if demand will continuously go high the price will be stretch up also, hopefully we can see a new ATH by this year.

[Harlot]

That kind of claim would require you to prove that the ones holding US dollars may it be a citizen or a forex trader is indeed shifting their money towards Bitcoin which isn't really evident. Even if we look at it chart wise or with technical analysis you will see that the daily traded volume for Bitcoin is in fact decreasing and even before that it was mediocre at best. So its really hard to prove that there was a correlation without any kind of data saying there was a huge influx of US dollar in an exchange just to buy Bitcoin.

[RealMalatesta]

Bitcoin rise because bitcoin is a very valuable currency, bitcoin itself without caring about any other currency including dollar should be going up because bitcoin is awesome and right now the only thing between the wealthy people and poor people that could level the playing field.

If you have bitcoin and hold it and not sell it, whales could buy and sell and try to make as much money as possible along the way but since you have bitcoin and not selling it the price will eventually go up and you will get richer as well, sure whales get richer with manipulation from the people they can convince or scare, but if you hold your hand strong they can't make you lose money unless they get baited to sell at low prices. Hence I think bitcoin goes up because bitcoin is a great weapon against wealth gap.

[Finestream]

Bitcoin rise because bitcoin is a very valuable currency, .....

Bitcoin is always a valuable currency, from almost nothing to $12,000 now, that's the definition of valuable assets.
However, this coin does not only rise all the time, it has its bear and bull market and it's just that we are in the bull market right now, that $12,000 is a good price already, the market keeps bouncing every time it was dumped and that makes this year a good year for bitcoin so far.

So, is it due to USD struggling or the USA economy is? I also think so as we have investors from US who knows where their economy is heading, and they have already find a way to save their investments and that is flowing it to crypto especially on bitcoin.

[tabas]

Without the COVID-19 a few years ago, bitcoin was strong and US dollar was strong during that time. But it sums up to the speculation of most market watchers.
And don't you ignore that it's not all about US dollars weakening why bitcoin is rising this time.

I guess maybe the rise in bitcoin price is because of the Korean government removing the ban on people which was restricting them to deposit their korean money from the banks to bitcoin trading sites and exchanges. Although a lot of Korean people didn't know about the removal of this ban but maybe they are now becoming aware of it as the time passes by. Also the price increase can be dueled by various other factors like the unrest which is currently in America, inflation all around the globe which is causing the dollar value to fall so technically the bitcoin value should rise against a falling USD, the fed printing a lot of money for stimulus package and many other reasons can be included in the list as well

That can be another reason why. As I have said before, it's not just all about US dollar and let's add that it's not just basically all about one single news.
It's a compilation of most things and events that affects the demand of bitcoin as usual. But more good news, means that we're seeing a lighter side which what we see today.

[Yamifoud]

How the hell you can call it "one main factor" without comparing the rest of them? Don't blindly trust articles on the internet. Their methodology is flawed most of the times without adequate data or comparison to draw any reliable conclusion.

That is the problem when it comes to the internet. Some say good while the other says negative, we never know whos telling lie or saying right because they don't have enough data to prove that USD is losing its value or in the opposite.
@OP, the rise of Bitcoin price and some altcoins is not because US dollar is weakening, no they are not because it never happens that simple. We have this price spike it is because there is an increase of crypto demand, people are investing crypto these days more than a thing that they invest in local stock market.

[davinchi]

Bitcoin has broken an important resistance level. Bitcoin price is unlikely to fall below that level, which is at the level of US $ 8 thousand.

Right now bitcoin market is trading around $12,200 levels after testing up to $12,450 by failing to test the resistance levels around $12,500 to $12,600 levels. The intermediate resistance levels around $12k was broken with huge rally and I guess the current happening is short term correction and market may test $13k at any time soon. Hence, I must agree with your statements that bitcoin will unlikely to test $8k forever here after.

In addition, Bitcoin was successfully closed at the weekly price above the US $ 11,400 resistance area.

This might be due to weaken dollars. Bitcoin was able to manage to stay stronger around $11,800 levels for quite long time by last week which must have acted as launchpad toward next resistance levels. Now, bitcoin got back the faith among investors hence it will continue its rally regardless of how USD will be performing in coming days.