Bitcoin ETF by 2nd quarter of 2021?

[palle11]

The consideration in the past years and during the bear market just died and now the talks about ETF have again resurfaced while its now almost in the bull trend. While its will be great to have ETF approved, its best not to expect or just be disappointed over again. If it's going to be reconsidered, I think they will just approve a lot of crypto ETFs at once.

Moreover there is certainty in the writing of op on the new boss but no reference to his positive support for ETF approval in the past. If he has not shown a strong will for the approval before his appointment, then it seems that politics will continue playing out in the issue.

[aesma]

A BTC ETF woud be good for sure. ETFs are all the rage, BTC is also getting notices, a combination of the two would bring in billions for sure, and help the price stay at current high levels, or go higher.

[exstasie]

Do we really need a Bitcoin ETF anymore, this isn't like 2016 anymore. We got tons of regulated exchanges like Coinbase or Gemini for US clients. We got regulated bitcoin futures. We got Bakkt. We also got cash apps like Square. We got GBTC. We got Robinhood with Crypto and couple weeks back we got Paypal crypto. So if people want to invest in crypto, they got tons of options right now.

Traditional stock investors and long term investors don't trade futures or touch Bitcoin spot exchanges. GBTC is extremely expensive and mainstream stock investors don't touch the pink sheets anyway.

In the same way that Paypal is exposing a huge new market to BTC, and providing customers access to investment exposure, so will an ETF. Not to mention that a liquid ETF will pave the way for mainstream pension/retirement fund options that provide exposure to BTC. These are massive markets that are still largely untapped.

An ETF is still a huge deal, it's just not being hyped anymore.

[btc_angela]

Do we really need a Bitcoin ETF anymore, this isn't like 2016 anymore. We got tons of regulated exchanges like Coinbase or Gemini for US clients. We got regulated bitcoin futures. We got Bakkt. We also got cash apps like Square. We got GBTC. We got Robinhood with Crypto and couple weeks back we got Paypal crypto. So if people want to invest in crypto, they got tons of options right now.

An ETF is still a huge deal, it's just not being hyped anymore.

Right, and the closet we get is, Bitcoin-linked ETF surges as cryptocurrency eyes fresh record high.

Shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund GBTC, +6.89% surged 3.2% Thursday as the price of the cryptocurrency BTCUSD, 0.24% moved higher. Grayscale's ETF is the closest investors can get to making trading bets on Bitcoin, since regulators have declined to allow the currency itself to be packaged into an ETF. GBTC tracks price movements in the digital currency, which has recently made a run at a fresh record. Among other things, Bitcoin's popularity increases along with easy-money policies in traditional money markets. Its all-time high was close to $20,000 three years ago. In the year to date, GBTC has gained nearly 120%.

And I think it will be the hype that we needed to push the price to $20k at least if there will be an approval from SEC, as it will capture the interest of more investors to BTC.

[stompix]

Gary Gensler would probably go harder on XRP than ETH because one of them is a company while the other one is a crypto currency. There is no company or a business behind ETH so you can't really go after ETH that much, what you can go after is the tokens or projects that base their business on ETH blockchain which could happen but simple solution would be to start a business outside of USA and they would be fine.

He has said that he sees the ethereum foundation doing the same as the company behind ripple, and if they start focusing on it it will be actually harder for them as they label themselves a non-profit organization with less room to maneuver in this case, and judging by how the bitcoin foundation acted probably they have lots of skeletons in their closets also, they've got also at least one member arrested so far, so while trailing behind they might catch up to it pretty soon. I'm pretty sure the SEC is going to keep an eye on things like this one.

 

[FanEagle]

He has said that he sees the ethereum foundation doing the same as the company behind ripple, and if they start focusing on it it will be actually harder for them as they label themselves a non-profit organization with less room to maneuver in this case, and judging by how the bitcoin foundation acted probably they have lots of skeletons in their closets also, they've got also at least one member arrested so far, so while trailing behind they might catch up to it pretty soon. I'm pretty sure the SEC is going to keep an eye on things like this one.

Even if he goes after ethereum foundation, that is the foundation and not the currency itself, ethereum could still continue without the foundation and it would still be fine. However we need to realize that foundation and company are not same things, if found guilty by USA and even charged with something, there are plenty of members of the foundation outside of USA that could continue, and whoever gets jailed or found guilty could be replaced with someone new and could continue without a problem.

Whereas ripple is not like that, it is just one company with two partners and if you jail them it is all game over, it can't continue its existence without the company and companies could be punished compared to foundations which can't be. Hence I think there is no worrying for eth, but xrp could be in big trouble.

[7788bitcoin]

An ETF is still a huge deal, it's just not being hyped anymore.

The reason for not having the same hype as above is obvious as everyone is hearing about this for the past 4 years and everyone time the proposal is reviewed they reject them and when you go through multiple rejections the hype will die down  .

If the prediction is true and if we get the approval by the second quarter of 2021 then everything will align together for the big push and we might see a huge rally that might take us to new levels.

[TimeTeller]

An ETF is still a huge deal, it's just not being hyped anymore.

The reason for not having the same hype as above is obvious as everyone is hearing about this for the past 4 years and everyone time the proposal is reviewed they reject them and when you go through multiple rejections the hype will die down  .

If the prediction is true and if we get the approval by the second quarter of 2021 then everything will align together for the big push and we might see a huge rally that might take us to new levels.

Right now, with or without ETF, crypto is enjoying the market.
But we are not discarding its effect if in case it will push thru next year.
But til then, let's just optimize our opportunities these days before we regret again the time that we should have made some investments.
Yes, people are tired of hearing this. So we basically just wait what's gonna happen to this proposal and not make a big deal out of it.

[aesma]

Another advantage of ETFs is that it could bring people in for the long term. They wouldn't necessarily bail out at the first BTC crash, they could buy more.

[beerlover]

If there is a big ETF that is going to affect bitcoin it will not really big this easy and it will not be this unimportant news that nobody cares about. You have to realize even on this bitcointalk forum you can see how much one news is important or not important.

If you write about a news and something potentially happening and there is 5+ pages per day written about it, until it reaches 30+ pages and becomes not so hyped, you can think it is an important news that will affect the price, but if it has only few pages after few days, it is not as important as you think it is.

What people think about this news and how many people write about it matters because bitcoin market is something that is changing constantly according to people who buy and sell and you can understand who wants to buy or who wants to sell depending on the reaction for the news.

[bbc.reporter]

An ETF is still a huge deal, it's just not being hyped anymore.

The reason for not having the same hype as above is obvious as everyone is hearing about this for the past 4 years and everyone time the proposal is reviewed they reject them and when you go through multiple rejections the hype will die down  .

If the prediction is true and if we get the approval by the second quarter of 2021 then everything will align together for the big push and we might see a huge rally that might take us to new levels.

Is that an argument that the bitcoin market is nothing but pumps and dumps on news? I reckon it appears this way many times hehehe.

In any case, there is demand from investors that want to invest on bitcoin but not direct exposure on bitcoin's volatility. The ETF is the only answer.



However, he is worried about bitcoin’s volatility and the regulators’ adverse response to it. “Every time I talk off the record to the regulators, because I talk to them all the time for various reasons, they’re a little squeamish on bitcoin, they are not quite there yet,” he cautioned.

O’Leary added, “When I can get this thing regulated so that I can put millions of dollars into it and know that I’m not off the side in any way. I’m not breaching anything … and it would be stable,” he affirmed:

If that was the case, if tomorrow morning we woke up and the SEC said you can create an ETF with bitcoin and we think bitcoin is a legitimate, you know, payment system and store of wealth, not only would it go up but you’d have a lot of people like me investing in it.

Source https://news.bitcoin.com/shark-tank-kevin-oleary-5-portfolio-sec-approved-bitcoin-etf/

[adaseb]

There is a joke going on that Microstrategy has pretty much launched a Bitcoin ETF since they are wanting to buy another $400 million worth of BTC. And since they already bought like $550M worth, and current unrealized profits are over $1B currently most of their market value is based largely on bitcoins price.

If you add MSTR to tradingview and compare it to BTC you will see the very close correlation. MSTR is different from GBTC because GBTC are OTC from what I recall. Not everybody can buy that especially people who want to use their retirement funds. MSTR is different because its on Nasdaq and most brokerages support it. Ideally it will only work one way. If BTC goes up, so does the stock but not the other way around. If MSTR goes up, doesn't mean BTC will go up.

[kotajikikox]

I predict yes, there will be an ETF by 2nd quarter of 2021 with the crypto mom Hester Peirce sworn in as an SEC commisioner yesterday.

I also predict that the first ETF for bitcoin approved will be the Winklevoss ETF.



The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that Caroline A. Crenshaw and Hester M. Peirce have been sworn into office as SEC commissioners.

Read in full https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2020-184

Where only 4-5 months before second quarter arrived is there any follow up news about this one?specially now that Trump Lose the election and New government will face us?

Another advantage of ETFs is that it could bring people in for the long term. They wouldn't necessarily bail out at the first BTC crash, they could buy more.

Hope that People inside crypto will decide about that and for sure the ETF's approval happens the very moment this was passed.

But we knew what is the agenda of the people behind this both side the favor or not.

[exstasie]

In any case, there is demand from investors that want to invest on bitcoin but not direct exposure on bitcoin's volatility. The ETF is the only answer.

However, he is worried about bitcoin’s volatility and the regulators’ adverse response to it. “Every time I talk off the record to the regulators, because I talk to them all the time for various reasons, they’re a little squeamish on bitcoin, they are not quite there yet,” he cautioned.

O’Leary added, “When I can get this thing regulated so that I can put millions of dollars into it and know that I’m not off the side in any way. I’m not breaching anything … and it would be stable,” he affirmed:

If that was the case, if tomorrow morning we woke up and the SEC said you can create an ETF with bitcoin and we think bitcoin is a legitimate, you know, payment system and store of wealth, not only would it go up but you’d have a lot of people like me investing in it.

I don't get it. An ETF wouldn't guarantee stability at all, and would be completely exposed to Bitcoin's volatility. That's the whole point, actually. At some point I'm sure we'll see leveraged and inverse ETFs too.

If you add MSTR to tradingview and compare it to BTC you will see the very close correlation.

Not surprising at all given the lack of BTC exposed instruments in the equity market and the scale of their investment. I speculated this would happen when they made their initial investment.

[darewaller]

Basically governments will try to stall this as much as they can but as we all know, it is impossible to make it stay like this forever. Eventually there will be a million ETF in the market that people could use and trade and invest into. When the market wants something, they will get it one way or another, same as crypto where if it was illegal to own any crypto, the price would be lower, but people would still own crypto illegally, just because something is illegal doesn't make it stop.

If the market wants ETF and governments do not provide it soon enough, it will definitely be in an illegal market covering that type of request from people. Which is why I think there will be ETF very soon, and they will get more in numbers from now on as well.

[thecodebear]

After years of speculations on when an ETF will happen, I don't think there is a reason to keep speculating. It'll happen eventually, and it'll happen when it happens. Could be next year, could be 3 years from now, could be 10 years from now. It isn't crucial to Bitcoin's mainstream adoption success, but will certainly help out. When it happens it'll be good, could still be years from now, until then Bitcoin is getting just fine without it.

[bbc.reporter]

In any case, there is demand from investors that want to invest on bitcoin but not direct exposure on bitcoin's volatility. The ETF is the only answer.

However, he is worried about bitcoin’s volatility and the regulators’ adverse response to it. “Every time I talk off the record to the regulators, because I talk to them all the time for various reasons, they’re a little squeamish on bitcoin, they are not quite there yet,” he cautioned.

O’Leary added, “When I can get this thing regulated so that I can put millions of dollars into it and know that I’m not off the side in any way. I’m not breaching anything … and it would be stable,” he affirmed:

If that was the case, if tomorrow morning we woke up and the SEC said you can create an ETF with bitcoin and we think bitcoin is a legitimate, you know, payment system and store of wealth, not only would it go up but you’d have a lot of people like me investing in it.

I don't get it. An ETF wouldn't guarantee stability at all, and would be completely exposed to Bitcoin's volatility. That's the whole point, actually. At some point I'm sure we'll see leveraged and inverse ETFs too.

If you add MSTR to tradingview and compare it to BTC you will see the very close correlation.

Not surprising at all given the lack of BTC exposed instruments in the equity market and the scale of their investment. I speculated this would happen when they made their initial investment.

Stability depends on what type of market something is on, I reckon. In a market where exchanges give everyone 100x leverage it will be very volatile. In a more regulated market where people are there more to invest than to gamble, it might have lower volatility.

[aesma]

I don't know if many people here use ETFs, personally I don't but I've seen then mentioned regularly on business channels, there are even specialized segments (Bloomberg ETF IQ, you can watch on youtube). To me they're a way to invest in a class of assets, in the case of commodities, or in a panel of stocks centered around a sector (or an indice). Gold ETFs are often mentioned, with them you're usually not buying just gold, or sometimes you're not buying gold at all, but for example mining companies stocks.

I didn't even know there were "single-asset ETFs", but apparently they do exist.

So, when talking about bitcoin ETFs, are we talking about an ETF that would just buy BTC, or rather an ETF that would be in mining companies, exchanges, things like that ? Or maybe a crypto ETF, invested in several coins ?

[exstasie]

I don't get it. An ETF wouldn't guarantee stability at all, and would be completely exposed to Bitcoin's volatility. That's the whole point, actually. At some point I'm sure we'll see leveraged and inverse ETFs too.

Stability depends on what type of market something is on, I reckon. In a market where exchanges give everyone 100x leverage it will be very volatile. In a more regulated market where people are there more to invest than to gamble, it might have lower volatility.

Only unregulated casinos like Bitmex offer 100x leverage, and even then, Bitmex traders only use ~8x leverage on average: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitmex-rejects-bold-lawsuit-claims-as-clearly-rehashed-internet-bunk

Real spot exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase Pro cap leverage at 5x tops. CME Group's Bitcoin futures limit leverage to 2-3x, not to mention they employ circuit breakers and things like that to reduce volatility. As volume moves out of the unregulated market and into regulated markets, I expect volatility to dampen if anything.

[aesma]

Bitcoin is volatile no doubt, so I don't even see how you can use 100X leverage really, unless you're only doing minutes long trades, but then yes it's really a bet, not a trading strategy.